Mid year update

[brenthutch 383]

Ok folks I know you have been waiting….

Global YTD temperature: Still not a record - WIN

Energy Transition: Can’t even keep up with increasing demand let alone replacing FF- WIN

EV adaption: Demand slowing as inventories build up on dealer lots. Nowhere near to replacing IC vehicles-WIN

CO2: Continues  to rise unabated as predicted - WIN

Floods, droughts, cyclones, and wildfires:  Remain within historical range on a global scale - WIN

Arctic sea ice: Still here (despite alarmists’ predicting it would be gone a decade ago) - WIN

Polar Bears: More now than fifty years ago - WIN

Coal use: Expected to set another record for 2023 - WIN

Enjoy the rest of your summer!

 

[Phil1111 911]

16 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Ok folks I know you have been waiting….

Wrong

16 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

...Global YTD temperature: Still not a record - WIN

Wrong again....   oh this is too tedious.

18 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

...Energy Transition: Can’t even keep up with increasing demand let alone replacing FF- WIN

EV adaption: Demand slowing as inventories build up on dealer lots. Nowhere near to replacing IC vehicles-WIN

CO2: Continues  to rise unabated as predicted - WIN

Floods, droughts, cyclones, and wildfires:  Remain within historical range on a global scale - WIN

Arctic sea ice: Still here (despite alarmists’ predicting it would be gone a decade ago) - WIN

Polar Bears: More now than fifty years ago - WIN

Coal use: Expected to set another record for 2023 - WIN....

All Wrong. How can anyone who claims to be educated in America be so wrong? Drugs? Too many terminal openings? Dropped as a baby by an uncaring babysitter?

20 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

....Enjoy the rest of your summer!

Thanks and I know that i don't have to say the same to you because of the unique wonderworld you live in.

[brenthutch 383]

“A new report from Cox Automotive has revealed that the likes of General Motors, Ford, Hyundai, and Toyota currently have more than 90 days’ worth of unsold EVs at their stores. Additional data reveals that dealerships across the U.S. have more than 92,000 new EVs in stock. That’s more the triple the number of EVs at dealer lots 12 months ago and may suggest a brief pause in the market growth of EVs across the country.” (EV inventories piling up while IC vehicles fly off the dealership lots)

“The January–June global surface temperature ranked third warmest in the 174-year record at 1.01°C (1.82°F) above the 1901-2000 average of 13.5°C (56.3°F).” (Third, AKA not a record)

“According to our analysis, the key driver for coal consumption in this decade will be continuing growth in major Asian emerging markets such as India, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines. The need for higher power demand, as a result of rising income and population, will continue to be met largely by coal fired electricity in these countries.”  (What No windmills and solar panels)

“As of this post…ice extent for July 17 is twelfth lowest in the 45-year satellite record.” (Did you catch that? More sea ice today that at this time in a dozen other years)

“Even with limited data, scientists are confident that there are more polar bears now than there were 50 years ago”

Edited July 19, 2023 by brenthutch

[olofscience 421]

1 minute ago, brenthutch said:

(Third, AKA not a record)

Weren't you predicting it won't even be in the top five?

Impressive mental gymnastics. No sources too, as expected.

[brenthutch 383]

Just now, olofscience said:

Weren't you predicting it won't even be in the top five?

Impressive mental gymnastics. No sources too, as expected.

As I said that was my ‘going out on a limb’ prediction. BTW we still have five more months.

[olofscience 421]

7 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

As I said that was my ‘going out on a limb’ prediction. BTW we still have five more months.

Landing on the mental gymnastics balance beam between your legs, more like. 

0/10 did not stick the landing

Edited July 19, 2023 by olofscience

[brenthutch 383]

8 minutes ago, olofscience said:

Landing on the mental gymnastics balance beam between your legs, more like. 

0/10 did not stick the landing

Still did better than the guy who predicted EVs would overtake IC vehicles in four (now two years) 

[olofscience 421]

In any case anyone is wondering how brent's next 5 months looks in terms of chances. From the NOAA June report,

Quote

According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Outlook, there is a greater than 99% chance that 2023 will rank among the 10-warmest years on record and a 97% chance it will rank among the top five.

 

So, brent has a whopping 3% chance that 2023 "won't even hit the top five". But then again maths is not brent's forte (whether he drinks whisky or not).

 

Anyway why didn't you post your sources brent? Worried we might read them?

Edited July 19, 2023 by olofscience

[olofscience 421]

2 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Still did better than the guy who predicted EVs would overtake IC vehicles in four (now two years) 

How can a FAILED prediction, be better than a prediction that still has 2 years to go?

Amazing mental gymnastics again.

Edited July 19, 2023 by olofscience

[SkyDekker 1,123]

Some more mid-tear review:

China on course to hit wind and solar power target five years ahead of time

China has more solar panels installed in large-scale projects than the rest of the world combined. On wind energy, the country has doubled its capacity since 2017

Solar and wind are being adopted faster than other new energy technologies of the past 50 years

[CygnusX-1 42]

4 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

4 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Ok folks I know you have been waiting….

Wrong

Actually, Phil, you are wrong and Brent is correct. I was waiting for this and even today before I opened the site said to myself, "I wonder when Brent will post his mid-year update."  I needed a good humorous post to read today.

 

4 hours ago, brenthutch said:

EV adaption: Demand slowing as inventories build up on dealer lots. Nowhere near to replacing IC vehicles-WIN

 

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

A new report from Cox Automotive has revealed that the likes of General Motors, Ford, Hyundai, and Toyota currently have more than 90 days’ worth of unsold EVs at their stores.

I wonder if that is mostly due to the fact that GM and Ford have already announced the plan to switch to NACS. Hyundai is considering to make the switch. And does Toyota even make an electric vehicle (no, the Prius doesn't count)? If I were in the market for an electric vehicle, I would not want one that uses CCS. NACS is now becoming the WORLD standard - since the world apparently ends at the US borders. That is just about as laughable as if I were to say that EV adoption rates are equivalent to what is happening in Norway. Which BTW, what is that now for this year? Fifty-four percent I do believe.

Edited July 19, 2023 by CygnusX-1

[billvon 2,400]

5 hours ago, brenthutch said:

EV adaption: Demand slowing as inventories build up on dealer lots.

Not at all true around here.  You can't get a Toyota EV or PHEV unless you order it a few months ahead of time.  Dealer inventories all say "in transit" or "purchased."  Occasionally you can snag a new Tesla if your timing is right, but again the spreadsheets that some of the Tesla websites maintain all list tons of cars in transit, very few available.

Wait - you're not including the cars in transit and purchased as "inventory" are you?  Oh my God.

Oh and BTW it's "adoption" not "adaption."

[brenthutch 383]

2 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

Some more mid-tear review:

China on course to hit wind and solar power target five years ahead of time

China has more solar panels installed in large-scale projects than the rest of the world combined. On wind energy, the country has doubled its capacity since 2017

Solar and wind are being adopted faster than other new energy technologies of the past 50 years

Still not enough to even keep up with the increase in demand let alone replace the hundreds of coal plants now under construction 

[brenthutch 383]

45 minutes ago, billvon said:

Wait - you're not including the cars in transit and purchased as "inventory" are you?  Oh my God.

 

“The U.S. electric vehicle market is growing, but not fast enough during the latest quarter to prevent unsold EVs from stacking up at some automakers' dealerships or to allow Tesla to avoid new price cuts, according to analysts and industry data.

Rising inventories and price-cutting could represent only a short-term pause in EV market growth. But they could be signals that boosting U.S. EV sales above the current 7% market share level will be more costly and difficult than expected, even with federal and state subsidies.”

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/slow-selling-evs-are-auto-industrys-new-headache-2023-07-11/
 

And EVs are costing Ford Billions 

“DETROIT (AP) — Ford Motor Co.'s electric vehicle business has lost $3 billion before taxes during the past two years and will lose a similar amount this year”

 

[olofscience 421]

9 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

“DETROIT (AP) — Ford Motor Co.'s electric vehicle business has lost $3 billion before taxes during the past two years and will lose a similar amount this year”

Geez, still no sources.

 

Ford is losing billions selling EVs because they're investing in R&D and massively committing to EVs.

Quote

Benchmark analyst Mike Ward said Ford’s EV losses are “more than accounted for” by above-average spending on research and development and engineering, which positions the company to gain share in the EV market.

Ford is still profitable, even with all its spending on EVs. Tesla wasn’t consistently profitable until it was shipping about 400,000 units a year. Ford will take some time to catch up.

 

It's funny, 4 years ago you were cheering and gloating about Tesla going bust, now that they're profitable (with a pretty big margin too) you've now focused on other companies following Tesla. Your argument has more contortions than Cirque du Soleil.

Edited July 19, 2023 by olofscience

[gowlerk 1,913]

2 hours ago, CygnusX-1 said:

I wonder if that is mostly due to the fact that GM and Ford have already announced the plan to switch to NACS. Hyundai is considering to make the switch.

This whole conversation is missing the fact that new vehicle inventory is up 70% over last year as the supply chain recovers. For all types of cars. Having stock in hand is a normal part of how companies make sales. If you don't have stock customers will often migrate away from you to someone who does. The Cox report clearly states that EV sales are on track as predicted. This would be why the troll did not link to it.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/cox-automotive-forecast-june-2023-u-s-auto-sales-forecast/

 

As the market begins to turn toward EVs one part of the supply chain is dragging their heels somewhat. The car dealers have not yet made the investments they will soon be forced into. 

https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/new-cox-automotive-study-ev-consideration-at-record-high-but-dealers-feel-unprepared/

 

Edited July 19, 2023 by gowlerk

[brenthutch 383]

1 hour ago, olofscience said:

Geez, still no sources.

AP= Associated Press, genius

 

[SkyDekker 1,123]

3 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Still not enough to even keep up with the increase in demand let alone replace the hundreds of coal plants now under construction 

Why do you think 100% replacement of all coal would be the goal? In the end it is still better then having it all produced by coal, even China understands that. Weird you don't.

[billvon 2,400]

2 hours ago, gowlerk said:

This whole conversation is missing the fact that new vehicle inventory is up 70% over last year as the supply chain recovers. For all types of cars. Having stock in hand is a normal part of how companies make sales. If you don't have stock customers will often migrate away from you to someone who does. The Cox report clearly states that EV sales are on track as predicted. This would be why the troll did not link to it.

Just for fun I searched all the Toyota PHEV inventory for their smaller one (the Prius Prime) within 250 miles.  Out of 86 vehicles, almost all say either:

Vehicle is in build phase
Vehicle may be in transit
SALE PENDING

7 total vehicles are listed without any caveats, which means you can go to the dealership and buy one.  Out of those 86 vehicles on their way to people, only 7 are "sitting on the lot" somewhere.

Sounds like Toyota is doing pretty well in the PHEV department.

[brenthutch 383]

18 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Why do you think 100% replacement of all coal would be the goal? In the end it is still better then having it all produced by coal, even China understands that. Weird you don't.

Not enough to keep up with the increase in demand.  The notion of renewables replacing fossil fuels is a wacky lefty pipe dream.

[brenthutch 383]

24 minutes ago, billvon said:

Just for fun I searched all the Toyota PHEV inventory for their smaller one (the Prius Prime) within 250 miles.  Out of 86 vehicles, almost all say either:

Vehicle is in build phase
Vehicle may be in transit
SALE PENDING

7 total vehicles are listed without any caveats, which means you can go to the dealership and buy one.  Out of those 86 vehicles on their way to people, only 7 are "sitting on the lot" somewhere.

Sounds like Toyota is doing pretty well in the PHEV department.

Wow one vehicle from one manufacturer and it’s not even a true EV, try again.

[SkyDekker 1,123]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Not enough to keep up with the increase in demand.  The notion of renewables replacing fossil fuels is a wacky lefty pipe dream.

Renewables are replacing fossil fuels. Majority of the Solar and Wind being installed in China would otherwise be serviced by coal. So renewables are replacing fossil fuels. You make the insane argument that since it isn't 100% it doesn't matter.

[billvon 2,400]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

The notion of renewables replacing fossil fuels is a wacky lefty pipe dream.

Given that renewables are in fact replacing fossil fuels means that that's actually . . . reality.  Here in California, more than 60% of our electricity comes from non-fossil-fuel sources.

But then again, cars replacing horses was once a wacky lefty pipe dream too.  So was public sanitation, public electrical power, .public water and police/fire/EMS.  Those wacky lefty pipe dreams have a way of coming true.

[brenthutch 383]

4 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Renewables are replacing fossil fuels. Majority of the Solar and Wind being installed in China would otherwise be serviced by coal. So renewables are replacing fossil fuels. You make the insane argument that since it isn't 100% it doesn't matter.

As long as FF use continues to rise faster than renewables, the best that can be claimed is that renewables supplement increasing FF use. If you think that renewables will in anyway lower CO2 emissions you are sorely mistaken, the best they can do is mitigate the increase.

[brenthutch 383]

1 hour ago, billvon said:

Given that renewables are in fact replacing fossil fuels means that that's actually . . . reality.  Here in California, more than 60% of our electricity comes from non-fossil-fuel sources.

But then again, cars replacing horses was once a wacky lefty pipe dream too.  So was public sanitation, public electrical power, .public water and police/fire/EMS.  Those wacky lefty pipe dreams have a way of coming true.

Wrong! 50% comes from natural gas. Not to mention California is the largest importer of electricity, much of which is generated from coal.

https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/2021-total-system-electric-generation

Edited July 20, 2023 by brenthutch