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brenthutch

Why there can be no accord

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"In other words, the problem I see with the paper by Spencer and Braswell is not that it declared a minority view



This shows one not looking at science. They are more concerned with policy

A political view if you will

science is NOT consensus
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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Read the sentence again. There's a "not" in there that you seemed to miss.



No, you need to read it again

He is worried more about how many acept it (or do not) rather than the content, which he disagrees with as well


Science is about the science, not about how many agree with you or dont
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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You really need to brush up on your reading comprehension. He clearly says that the problem with the paper was NOT that it expressed a minority view.



And you need to open your mind to the fact that even the Great Dan can be wrong.

He says mentions the minority view point

the Journal talking about the same

He is talking about whether a majority agrees or not

HE mentions it even in the context you speak about

And MY point is regardless of one’s view, consensus, majority or minority is NOT a part of science

The journal it was in, did the same

As did the media

And you pick a petty fight because you come at this from a different perspective

Nice
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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Holy shit, sometimes you amaze me.

Apparently, in your world mentioning the fact that there is a minority opinion, even while explicitly saying that expressing a minority opinion is okay, is the exact same thing as allowng only majority opinions to be expressed. Incredible.

- Dan G

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Holy shit, sometimes you amaze me.

Apparently, in your world mentioning the fact that there is a minority opinion, even while explicitly saying that expressing a minority opinion is okay, is the exact same thing as allowng only majority opinions to be expressed. Incredible.



Dude

I see what you are saying

You are not trying to see my point

Get over yourself
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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There's a reason why there can be no accord. Because with all the talk of "consensus" and "minority position" and the the like, there are some things for which no consensus can be made and no data is available. For Chrissake, there's no consensus on things that we have no ability to estimate because it's all subjective.

What is the consensus on the risks from climate change? Okay. We can all get together and identify possible risks, from nothing all the way to the Antarctic ice sheet melting in the next decade.

Now that we've got a consensus on all the risks, show me a consensus on the probabilities. Show me a prediction of the future effects without "might" or "may" involved. There are numbers tossed around about sea level rise. Nope. No consensus. No agreement on what the sea level rise can be. Nope, no consensus on that at all, except somewhere between 10 cm and 10 meters by 2100. Yeah. That's like planning a wedding and not being sue whether 10 people or 1000 people will be there.

This is why the consensus stuff being argued from a policy standpoint is part No. 1: Risks. What risks do we know about? There is the risk that the we will be warmer and/or colder, wetter and/or drier, windier and/or calmer, more stormy and/or less stormy, etc.

Now that we're showing Part 1 of where the consensus doesn't lie, let find other places where consensus can't be found. Show me a consensus on cost. I want that consensus. Actually, I want to see the consensus on the costs of both action and inaction. Of course, since we have no consensus on the effects, we cannot have a consensus on what the cost of inaction would be (what is the cost of a kilometer of Arctic ice in February, 2082?). Thus, we can have no cost consensus on ACTION required to prevent it.

Without any consensus on costs, we cannot do any cost-benefit analysis. What are the costs of action versus inaction? We can't do it. We cannot.

This is where the human element comes in. As humans, we are far more turned on by the catastrophic events that are of low probability than we are with the high probability events that produce results that aren't quite so dramatic. We, as humans, apply different STANDARDS for low probability events that are catastrophic. We give those a lot of attention.

We'll worry about swine flu, which killed a few people here, because it has the potential of being really bad and killing us all. But we don't worry about influenza, which kills about 40k Americans each year, because it's known and, yeah, it's just the flue.

We'll worry about plane crashes because they are spectacular. We don't worry about car crashes. though they kill thousands of Americans every year in thousands of separate events. No, the high-probability, low drama events don't work.

So what happens? Everyone knows this, and therefore the dramatic risks are pointed out. More hurricanes! Stronger hurricanes! More frequent hurricanes! More damaging hurricanes! Just after Katrina and it is exploited. And we haven't had a hurricane make US landfall since Ike.

So that's what we hear - we hear about a devastated future. That low-probability but devastating potential future. And why?

What is the consensus on the future? That's right - there is none! What's the consensus on what to do about the future? That's right - there is none.

Why can there be no accord? Because we're planning for a future and nobody knows what the fuck will happen in the near-to-middle future.

Let's quit acting like there's a consensus on that. There's a consensus (and consensus is what science is all about. Science is a democracy, and scientific truth is what groups of people think it is) that the earth's climate is changing and that a significant factor causing the earth's climate change is anthropogenic.

Beyond that, there's no consensus. Period.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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And also because we have no idea what an average or normal for the climate is supposed to be!


If the age of the earth was condensed to 1 twenty four hour period, we would have data from maybe 1/100 of a second.

Yet many scream that what is happening is not a normal for the planet

HOW CAN ANYBODY CLAIM THEY KNOW WHAT NORMAL IS SUPPOSED TO BE?????

I asked this very question earlier in this thread

Not one reply
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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I asked that question years ago.

http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=959256#959256

Billvon answered it a few minutes later with what I thought was a reasonable answer (Post No. 6).

I thought it a good question at the time. Part of me still thinks it's reasonable, but I find myself more in agreement with Bill's statement. Bill even committed the sin of pointing out that there are goods and bads to climate change. It's why it was credible, in my mind.

Note: right around then was the onus for me to start learning more about the subject.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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I asked that question years ago.

http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=959256#959256

Billvon answered it a few minutes later with what I thought was a reasonable answer (Post No. 6).

I thought it a good question at the time. Part of me still thinks it's reasonable, but I find myself more in agreement with Bill's statement. Bill even committed the sin of pointing out that there are goods and bads to climate change. It's why it was credible, in my mind.

Note: right around then was the onus for me to start learning more about the subject.



Thanks for the reminder

I had forgotten that post

But it also beggs a question

If there is not really a temp normal, how can anyone say that a given change is too fast or not?

It is all the same to me I guess
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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[Reply]But it also beggs a question

If there is not really a temp normal, how can anyone say that a given change is too fast or not?



It begs to me a different question: why do we care? And the best answer I can come up with is "because we humans like it the way it is." In other words, we want the environment to remain the same because it's how we're set up. Even if climate change is natural, we wouldn't necessarily want it to happen.

It's pretty obvious that if the sea level rose 30 feet that it would cause some problems to a large number of people on earth. We've seen what happens when the sea level rises ten meters in the matter of a minute in Thailand, Sri Lanka, etc. The more time we have to be prepared for it the fewwer people die. If we could get, say, 50 years of notice we can do other things. Think of earthquake preparedness. Los Angeles is pretty well situated to handle them, and a shaker that would devastate New York City would be pretty much business as usual in Los Angeles.

So we want the climate to be the same or similar as now. What happens if sea level lowers? Take a look at the Aral Sea. What about increasing water salinity? Check out the Salton Sea.

The things to ask are, "Will we see a sea level increase? If so, how much? Can we stop it? What will be the other effects? Etc. Then, how much will it cost to eliminate it?"

Now, there seems to be some guilt that we are doing it to benefit humans. That's why we look at all creatures cute and cuddly. Polar bears dying is bad. (But they only tell a half truth. Some places in the Arctic are warming, some are cooling, and polar bears are dying in the colder places and thriving in the warmer places. That's a dirty secret). We don't want Penguins displaced. We don't want Orcas confused.

Many ARE arguing about the risk of catastrophe to humans. I get that. But my problems are twofold: (1) there's no consensus; and (2) the predictions of catastrophe that should have already happened haven't. Add to that the attribution of every weather phenomenon to climate and it sounds desperate.

And people like me, who believe that the climate is changing and humans bear some responsibility can be seen as somewhat reasonable. But, the fact that I think that the temperature rise as a result will be negligible, without catastrophic effect and perhaps with some benefits to offset the costs of the climate change makes me an uncomfrtable person to both sides.

I do tend to lean against the climate consensus because I think that they have tactics that I've seen in my job. And because I am in a sense on the skeptical side, I don't like being regarded as "anti-science" because I question the predictions.

I see that science has become an adjunct for politics in climate. Climate change has been established as a legal and political fact. Future climate devastation has been established as a political and legal fact. I do question that.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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[Reply]But it also beggs a question

If there is not really a temp normal, how can anyone say that a given change is too fast or not?



It begs to me a different question: why do we care? And the best answer I can come up with is "because we humans like it the way it is." In other words, we want the environment to remain the same because it's how we're set up. Even if climate change is natural, we wouldn't necessarily want it to happen.

It's pretty obvious that if the sea level rose 30 feet that it would cause some problems to a large number of people on earth. We've seen what happens when the sea level rises ten meters in the matter of a minute in Thailand, Sri Lanka, etc. The more time we have to be prepared for it the fewwer people die. If we could get, say, 50 years of notice we can do other things. Think of earthquake preparedness. Los Angeles is pretty well situated to handle them, and a shaker that would devastate New York City would be pretty much business as usual in Los Angeles.

So we want the climate to be the same or similar as now. What happens if sea level lowers? Take a look at the Aral Sea. What about increasing water salinity? Check out the Salton Sea.

The things to ask are, "Will we see a sea level increase? If so, how much? Can we stop it? What will be the other effects? Etc. Then, how much will it cost to eliminate it?"

Now, there seems to be some guilt that we are doing it to benefit humans. That's why we look at all creatures cute and cuddly. Polar bears dying is bad. (But they only tell a half truth. Some places in the Arctic are warming, some are cooling, and polar bears are dying in the colder places and thriving in the warmer places. That's a dirty secret). We don't want Penguins displaced. We don't want Orcas confused.

Many ARE arguing about the risk of catastrophe to humans. I get that. But my problems are twofold: (1) there's no consensus; and (2) the predictions of catastrophe that should have already happened haven't. Add to that the attribution of every weather phenomenon to climate and it sounds desperate.

And people like me, who believe that the climate is changing and humans bear some responsibility can be seen as somewhat reasonable. But, the fact that I think that the temperature rise as a result will be negligible, without catastrophic effect and perhaps with some benefits to offset the costs of the climate change makes me an uncomfrtable person to both sides.

I do tend to lean against the climate consensus because I think that they have tactics that I've seen in my job. And because I am in a sense on the skeptical side, I don't like being regarded as "anti-science" because I question the predictions.

I see that science has become an adjunct for politics in climate. Climate change has been established as a legal and political fact. Future climate devastation has been established as a political and legal fact. I do question that.



To me it is all about power, money and control

And AGW is just one venue for them to push that agenda
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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To me it is all about power, money and control

And AGW is just one venue for them to push that agenda



Yes. There's a significant amount of money and power at stake on both sides. One side wants to keep that money and power for itself. The other side wants to take power and money from it and give it to itself. Power is a zero sum game.

I see where it is. We've got Heartland putting out a billboard with the Unabomber on it. That's bad. A couple of years ago we had alarmists putting out videos of schoolkids blowing up to make their point. We've got the CRU hack, which was seen and raised by Gleick and the Heartland materials.

It is a power game. As I mentioned, global warming is a political fact. It's a game, and the victors will receive the spoils. But there is also a lot lost in it.

As for me, on one side is denial. On the other side is alarm. Somewhere between the two is the truth. It's that middle ground that doesn't seem to get much attention.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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So then, what is, or, where is this middle ground?

A very open question (sorry) but I am looking for any specifics you have to offer.

To help so you understand my persective

I think, as a people, we can mess up local and small areas very very badly (with polution)

I also think we are arrogant if we think we have the power to first, affect global climate and second, do anything about it
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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It begs to me a different question: why do we care? And the best answer I can come up with is "because we humans like it the way it is." In other words, we want the environment to remain the same because it's how we're set up. Even if climate change is natural, we wouldn't necessarily want it to happen.



our timeframe is also a bit different than is measured in geological time. If a given climate change, caused by us or not, caused a 500 year hot period and then reset back to 'normal,' that would be fine for the planet, but lousy for us. We don't live long enough to ride out these cycles.

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There is evidence that in New York climate change was pretty rapid at the end of the last ice age, having accelerated about 10k years ago. The evidence suggests that while the New York archipelago was tundra that was dominated by spruce, that even within 30-50 years, the land became dominated by pine and then the deciduous forests.

And it is true - had we had cities, etc., back then, we'd have been hosed. At the height of the ice age, the east coast extended in some places another 50 miles, which is now under 350 feet of water - 22k years ago. It would have sucked to be there, and would have similarly sucked when Hudson Lake drained.

The present sea level was established only 6k years ago. It rose 350 feet in 6k years. That's an average of just under 6 feet every century. Or 2/3 of an inch every year. Some are estimating that the sea level has risen an average of up to 2.5mm per year since 1900, meaning a rise of about 275mm since 1900. Which is a little under 11 inches in 110 years. So it was over 6 times greater sea level rise back then.

So humans actually have been around to see this stuff in action during their lifetimes. It was easier for our nomadic ancestors to move their beach homes a few feet every ten or twenty years, but won't be so easy now.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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"I became outraged when I discovered that much of what the IPCC and the media were telling us was sheer nonsense and was not even supported by any scientific facts and measurements. To this day I still feel shame that as a scientist I made presentations of their science without first checking it. The CO2-climate hysteria is propagated by people who are in it for lots of money, attention and power."


http://notrickszone.com/2012/05/09/the-belief-that-co2-can-regulate-climate-is-sheer-absurdity-says-prominent-german-meteorologist/
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Too easy.
Boosh

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