We may be getting very close (Hibbert's Peak)

[billvon 2,478]

From the Financial Times:
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The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries signalled a significant tightening of oil markets towards the end of this year, warning on Wednesday it would have to pump close to its maximum capacity next winter to meet rising demand from China against the backdrop of slowing Russian production.

The cartel said it would have to supply at least 30.1m barrels a day in the fourth quarter of the year to balance the market, an increase of 630,000 b/d from its previous estimate in January and 1.1m b/d up from the December figure. The International Energy Agency forecasts Opec's capacity will be 31.5m b/d by mid-2005.
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http://news.ft.com/cms/s/77f2d8ee-8059-11d9-bd50-00000e2511c8.html
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The head of ChevronTexaco on Tuesday called on the US government to build growing competition for Middle East oil with Asian consumers into a new national energy policy, or risk harming future economic growth.

Dave O'Reilly, chairman and chief executive of the second largest US oil and gas group, pointed to the closer ties between consumers such as China and India and Middle East producers at a time when cheap-to-find oil was becoming more scarce.
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http://news.ft.com/cms/s/6f3b1f6e-7fb3-11d9-8ceb-00000e2511c8.html

I don't think there's any question any more that it will happen. The only question remaining is when we're going to start taking it seriously. The sooner we do that the less it will hurt when we run out of cheap oil.

[kallend 1,683]

Oil prices spiked today, and the $US plunged.

GWB gets conciliatory with the French and Germans.

I guess these are linked. Bush can't afford any more pre-emptive go-it-(almost)-alone wars right now, until the trade and budget deficits get under control.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[EricTheRed 0]

Bush was (wisely in my view) promoting nuclear power again during his 'mending fences tour' of Germany.

Everyone knows that oil production will peak, the question is when. I think that most of us on this board will likely live to see it happen.

illegible usually

[TheAnvil 0]

Slowing Russian production - one more reason to be pissed off at Putin's Yuganskneftegaz imbroglio.

Vinny the Anvil
Post Traumatic Didn't Make The Lakers Syndrome is REAL
JACKASS POWER!!!!!!

[ChasingBlueSky 0]

A report came out today that sees the price of oil hitting $80 within two years.

_________________________________________
you can burn the land and boil the sea, but you can't take the sky from me....
I WILL fly again.....

[billvon 2,478]

>A report came out today that sees the price of oil hitting $80
>within two years.

Easily. I've been hoping for years that when we hit the peak we will have options to switch to (i.e. pure electrics, natural gas etc) but it looks like we're not going to make it. A few diesels, one natural gas car (Honda GX) and that's about it.

One interesting development is the griddable, or pluggable, hybrid. A few people have been working on basically changing the software in a Prius and adding a charger so you can charge it and drive 5-10 miles on the battery alone, leaving the gas engine for longer trips. When gas hits $10 a gallon, people may be more willing to use it in the electric mode to get to work/shopping and save the gas engine for longer trips.

[tcnelson 1]

Quote

I don't think there's any question any more that it will happen. The only question remaining is when we're going to start taking it seriously. The sooner we do that the less it will hurt when we run out of cheap oil.

i think that you are correct bill. i've wondered for some time why there has not been a push for alternative energy sources from oil. they are out there and we have known it for quite a while now. it comes down to money as always; as soon as it's more cost efficient to consider alternate fuel, the american market will change. it's all in response to money, the bottom line.

"Don't talk to me like that assface...I don't work for you yet." - Fletch
NBFT, Deseoso Rodriguez RB#1329

[DrunkMonkey 0]

So other than reverting to a stationary, agrarian world, what do we do?

Your words do worry me, but when will the world grind to a halt, within my (b. 1977) lifetime, or in that of my future offspring?

What's the deal with ethanol? Don't most engines accept ethanol?

[EricTheRed 0]

The actual 'shape' of the peak will also have a lot of influence on the transition to other energy sources and changes in distribution schemes.
My guess is that we will see more of a plateau of production as the incentive to move to other forms of production and more efficient use of energy becomes greater.

illegible usually

[SpeedRacer 1]

Quote

So other than reverting to a stationary, agrarian world, what do we do?

Your words do worry me, but when will the world grind to a halt, within my (b. 1977) lifetime, or in that of my future offspring?

What's the deal with ethanol? Don't most engines accept ethanol?

Relax. There are plenty of options already available. All we have to do is do them.

Ethanol is not very efficient in terms of enrgy put in vs what you get out. You have to distill to get pure ethanol, and that takes a lotta energy. Biodiesel is much more efficient. You take vegetable oil and do a low energy process known as transesterification.

With minimal modifications you can run diesel engines & use it as a home heating oil.

I would like to see us switch to this RIGHT NOW just to ease up our ties to foreign oil-producing countries. Why wait until it becomes a problem, when the technology for the switch is already available.

Using biodiesel & solar power would protect the environment, and biodiesel would hold us over til we get those Hydrogen fuel cell things worked out.

Anyway, the point is there are plenty of options available to us besides petroleum, and no, we don't need to go back to the 19th century.

I'm considering getting a diesel, or maybe a diesel hybrid, for my next car.

Speed Racer
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[jumper03 0]

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I would like to see us switch to this RIGHT NOW just to ease up our ties to foreign oil-producing countries.

Not to mention giving US Farmers a huge new market for their crops. Seems to me to be knocking out two birds with one stone.

Scars remind us that the past is real

[ChasingBlueSky 0]

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I would like to see us switch to this RIGHT NOW just to ease up our ties to foreign oil-producing countries. Why wait until it becomes a problem, when the technology for the switch is already available.

Why not now? Money. This country has a vested interest in OPEC with a proxy vote via Iraq and the pipeline we built in Afghan. There are too many political connections that will be taken into consideration first before economy, cost, and longevity of resources (and that pesky environment issue). Imagine the political backlash if the Bush admin annnounced a five year plan to be off of fossil fuels? Imagine the job loss and the complaing suits about having their cash cow removed from under them? Until they find a way to make good $$$ off of a new infrastructure you will not see a rush to any new methods.

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maybe a diesel hybrid, for my next car.

One of these exists?

_________________________________________
you can burn the land and boil the sea, but you can't take the sky from me....
I WILL fly again.....

[GTAVercetti 0]

I am pretty sure there are no diesel hybrids yet. However, there ARE diesel cars which get 90 mpg (The Lupo, a VW car in Europe) that are extremely clean.

Why yes, my license number is a palindrome. Thank you for noticing.

[GTAVercetti 0]

Here is a good article on hybrids and diesel:

Hybrid and Diesel Cars

Why yes, my license number is a palindrome. Thank you for noticing.

[rehmwa 2]

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Money. This country has a vested interest in OPEC with a proxy vote via Iraq and the pipeline we built in Afghan. There are too many political connections that will be taken into consideration first before economy, cost, and longevity of resources

Do you really believe supply and demand is so much weaker than these (real or imagined) "political" forces you list? Frankly, as gas gets more expensive, alternate power sources will become more popular - just make them cheaper rather than fossil fuels. Then it becomes a supply ramp issue until it's the norm. The only mistake that is in the potential realm is government trying to artifically make the cost of fossil fuels too expensive (via restrictive laws or unnecessary taxes or high price setting) - better to drive efficiency of alternates until they become the energy of choice.

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[GTAVercetti 0]

Quote

Do you really believe supply and demand is so much weaker than these (real or imagined) "political" forces you list? Frankly, as gas gets more expensive, alternate power sources will become more popular - just make them cheaper rather than fossil fuels. Then it becomes a supply ramp issue until it's the norm. The only mistake that is in the potential realm is government trying to artifically make the cost of fossil fuels too expensive (via restrictive laws or unnecessary taxes or high price setting) - better to drive efficiency of alternates until they become the energy of choice.

While supply and demand are a HUGE part of it, there certainly are PLENTY of political reasons why we have not switched faster. There is a good reason why oil companies employ so many lobbyists. Until they can figure out a way to make alternatives cheaper AND control them, they are going to keep pressing politicians to stay with oil.

Why yes, my license number is a palindrome. Thank you for noticing.

[ChasingBlueSky 0]

Quote

Do you really believe supply and demand is so much weaker than these (real or imagined) "political" forces you list? Frankly, as gas gets more expensive, alternate power sources will become more popular - just make them cheaper rather than fossil fuels. Then it becomes a supply ramp issue until it's the norm. The only mistake that is in the potential realm is government trying to artifically make the cost of fossil fuels too expensive (via restrictive laws or unnecessary taxes or high price setting) - better to drive efficiency of alternates until they become the energy of choice.

Yes, I believe that the political forces are that much stronger. I don't believe in a conspiracy or any of that junk. However there are a few 800lb gorillas in that industry that hold sway over many topics on a global level.

_________________________________________
you can burn the land and boil the sea, but you can't take the sky from me....
I WILL fly again.....

[billvon 2,478]

>Frankly, as gas gets more expensive, alternate power sources will
>become more popular - just make them cheaper rather than fossil fuels.
> Then it becomes a supply ramp issue until it's the norm.

That is ideal. However, the problem is that if it happens suddenly, over the course of two years, the economy can't adjust. Even if we started today, passed a law that said all cars on the road must be hybrids, it would take five years for the manufacturers to gear up to get enough cars on the road, never mind electrics or natural gas fuel cell cars.

So let's say within two years we hit the peak, and gas becomes $10 a gallon. The first thing that happens is no one can ship anything economically, because those trucks of the future aren't available yet, and today's diesels simply can't ship stuff economically. So the economy tanks. And all those trucks of the future sit there on the manufacturer's lots because no one can afford to buy them - see, the economy just tanked.

If people are selling only apples and oranges, and apples become more scarce/expensive, people will buy more oranges in the simple supply/demand economy model. But if there are no oranges available, and people only plant orange groves after the apples quadruple in price, people will still starve.

We can survive a gradual loss of cheap oil, over the course of ten years. We just can't survive a sudden loss unless we prepare for it.

>The only mistake that is in the potential realm is government trying
>to artifically make the cost of fossil fuels too expensive

That, unfortunately, is one of the only things that WILL work. By putting massive taxes on oil you can do two things:

1. Encourage development of alternatives through normal capitalistic means

2. Prepare a 'buffer' for when oil prices go through the roof. If you tax gas 100%, then you can deal with a price increase up to 2X by simply cutting taxes. Since we have the cheapest gasoline on the planet, it's certainly something we could do today if we want to plan for the future.

[SpeedRacer 1]

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Imagine the political backlash if the Bush admin annnounced a five year plan to be off of fossil fuels? Imagine the job loss and the complaing suits about having their cash cow removed from under them?

hmmm, this is the argument people have used in the past about other industries...

Oh, there will never be nuclear power plants. The companies producing oil & coal would never allow it...

And look at the big tobacco companies. Since the early '80s smoking has dropped dramtically, (I don't know what the number is , maybe something like 30%). Contrary to what you might have predicted, the tobacco companies did little to stop it. Instead they just expanded horizontally---buying up food manufacturers & other non-tobacco companies. OK so a few tobacco farmers had to stop growing tobacco, BFD. Its not as though they can't find something else to do.

Speed Racer
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[EricTheRed 0]

Of course, if you raise the tax too quickly you get the same effect of the economy. Overall a slow ratcheting of the price of oil (and hence gas) os what would be prefered to make the transition as smaooth as possible. It's unlikely to happen though.

In other news...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7086661/

illegible usually

[billvon 2,478]

>if you raise the tax too quickly you get the same effect of the economy.
> Overall a slow ratcheting of the price of oil (and hence gas) os what
> would be prefered to make the transition as smaooth as possible.

Agree 100%. If we had started five years ago, and increased them 10% a year, we'd be in good shape now; we'd have a 50% buffer against increases in prices. Unfortunately it is now too late:

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Big Jump In Gas Prices Predicted

March 4, 2005


"We did a survey a couple of years that showed ... that gasoline would have to hit $3 a gallon or above for [SUV owners] to consider changing their vehicles."
Robert Sinclair, AAA


(CBS/AP) Gasoline prices are about to go through the moon roof. One analyst predicts a 24-cent-a-gallon increase in the next few days and other experts say average prices could go as high as $2.50 a gallon this summer, the peak driving season.

"$2 a gallon we think is easily within reach and probably in the next couple of months," the American Automobile Association's Robert Sinclair told CBS Radio News.

Tom Kloza, senior analyst at the Oil Price Information Service, expects the jump much sooner: The end of this month. "Petronoia is in full flower," he told USA Today, but added he's not sure if prices will stay over $2 a gallon, or retreat as they did last fall.

Fuel-watchers say the main culprit is global demand, which briefly pushed the price of a gallon of crude oil as high as $55 a barrel Thursday. That's the highest level since last October.

"This is especially bad news for consumers, given the fact that gasoline prices have risen from early March to the middle of May in 19 of the last 20 years," said energy analyst Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover Inc.

Even seasoned energy traders have been taken aback by the steep rise in crude-oil prices this week. Typically, the cost of crude is about 50 percent responsible for what you will pay at the pump.

[skydyvr 0]

Quote

By putting massive taxes on oil you can do two things:

1. Encourage development of alternatives through normal capitalistic means

2. Prepare a 'buffer' for when oil prices go through the roof. If you tax gas 100%, then you can deal with a price increase up to 2X by simply cutting taxes. Since we have the cheapest gasoline on the planet, it's certainly something we could do today if we want to plan for the future.

Right-wing whack job that I am, I agree 100% with higher tax strategy -- but would not cut federal tax when price goes up.

. . =(_8^(1)

[billvon 2,478]

>What's the deal with ethanol? Don't most engines accept ethanol?

Ethanol might help; it can be burned in IC engines with very few modifications. Biodiesel gives you more gallons per acre though.

Check out the link below for an 80mpg diesel hybrid built by SDSU:

http://www.evworld.com/view.cfm?section=article&storyid=312

This particular one is chargeable as well. In other words, you can plug it in and drive it 25 miles on battery alone. Beyond that you start the engine. A very nice option if gas prices go through the roof - you can just decide not to use any fuel.

[Lindsey 0]

Of course this is not a particularly intelligent or enlightening response, but I, as a mom, feel compelled to add: yesterday I overheard my little boy telling his friend the difference between resources that are renewable and those that are not. I think it's cool that this is in the minds of children....

linz

--
A conservative is just a liberal who's been mugged. A liberal is just a conservative who's been to jail

[Sinkster 0]

Yep, it's too late. We'll be fighting wars over the supply to keep oil cheap enough not to send our economy into mass chaos. But regardless it will be rough, due to the global effects. This scenario has been planned for, for many years and we (USA) will most likely 'win' (but no guarantees). Good thing we are in Iraq.

Want to eat? Support our troops! Want to be rich (because only we will have cheap oil), while the rest of the world starves? Support our troops! Want to keep driving your gas-guzzling whale-skin lined Hummer and eat f*cking 70oz steaks for only 10 dollars? Support our troops!

/proud supporter