Michele 1 #1 May 31, 2004 Because of the attacks on the oil offices/housing this weekend, I've been thinking about the ramifications of the House of Saud falling. From what I understand, they are Wahhabi based, but in a far more "liberal" fashion than is usually ascribed to Wahhabism, inasmuch as they deal with the US. Western culture is pervasive there, and the strict fundamentalist aspects of Wahhabism are not adhered to. According to what I understand of one side of OBL and AQ, the H/S is under attack, and the overthrow of them is a goal. If the H/S falls, what do you think would happen next? Personally, I think that if they do fall, it will domino throughout the middle east. We will see such destabilization as not seen before, and the entire region will be struggling for control of their national resources (i.e. oil). Opec will be destroyed (dunno if that's good or bad). Israel will be anhiliated, Jordan will fall, Kuwait will be taken over, Iran will be the powerhouse in the neighborhood, Syria will fight to expand it borders, perhaps as an ally of Iran...Yemen will be taken over (they have a great and important port for the region), and so on. Do you think the US would support the H/S? Or let them fall? Do you think the H/S has done enough to fight terrorism within it's own borders? What do you think would be the result of a decimation of the H/S? And it will be interesting to watch the market tomorrow overseas, and see what it does on Tuesday here... Just wondering, since I'm too sick to go jump...my mind wanders, and comes up with all sorts of horrible scenarios. Ciels- Michele ~Do Angels keep the dreams we seek While our hearts lie bleeding?~ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FallRate 0 #2 May 31, 2004 Quote...Israel will be anhiliated... That is doubtful. FallRate Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Michele 1 #3 May 31, 2004 QuoteThat is doubtful. Why? Ciels- Michele ~Do Angels keep the dreams we seek While our hearts lie bleeding?~ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rickjump1 0 #4 May 31, 2004 Quote Israel will be anhiliated... During the cold war there was a period of time when the Russians were leaning on Israel so heavy that the Israeli Government had to remind them that their pilots were willing and able to go one way to the center of Moscow. They would certainly use these nuclear weapons for survival today.Do your part for global warming: ban beans and hold all popcorn farts. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Michele 1 #5 May 31, 2004 QuoteThey would certainly use these nuclear weapons for survival today Agreed. But what would the region be like if Israel was left alone because of the nukes, but the rest of scenario played out? I'm not sure that is good, either, with the exception of Israel surviving... Ciels- Michele ~Do Angels keep the dreams we seek While our hearts lie bleeding?~ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Erroll 53 #6 May 31, 2004 Quote Do you think the H/S has done enough to fight terrorism within it's own borders? The majority of terrorists involved with 9/11 were Saudi. I count a large number of Moslems amongst my friends and colleagues. Not a single one of them will shed a tear should the 'House of Saud' fall. The scenario you paint is not unlike the one that was painted during the run-up to the end of the Sha's reign in Iran. It did not materialise and the conflicts remained, in the main, localised. I am not informed enough to make a call about what the US's role should be. However, in my (uninformed) opinion, the US should not support the House of Saud in the event of it's demise. Instead, it should maintain strong diplomatic contact with any new government, in the interests of balance of power. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Skyrad 0 #7 May 31, 2004 I don't think it will happen. The H/S is huge, absolutly massive and very embedded in the nations power structure. Even if the curreent people were to be overthrown I've no doubt the power vacuum would be filled by other H/S members.When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy. Lucius Annaeus Seneca Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites nacmacfeegle 0 #8 May 31, 2004 Interesting train of thought Michelle, could the HS be likened to the demise of the Romanoffs during the Russian revolution? Could it be that the little people are sick of getting the shitty end of the stick over oil wealth in places such as Iraq, Saudi, Sudan, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Nigeria?-------------------- He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me. Thomas Jefferson Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites falxori 0 #9 May 31, 2004 QuoteIsrael will be anhiliated gee thanks, what did I ever do to you ??? O "Carpe diem, quam minimum credula postero." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites argon 0 #10 May 31, 2004 The House of Saud has made its own bed and now must sleep in it. None of this violence has anything to do with wealth,oil etc.. The extremists truly hate the west and all its ideals. Isreal is truly in danger but will not go down without a fight-and will utilize tactical nuclear weapons if push came to shove. Syria and Iran are a clear and present danger to the west. The House of Saud hasn't been struck hard enough yet to realize they can't continue to use cash and safe harbor for these home grown fanatics.IMHO,we haven't seen the worst of any of these scenarios yet. The American public is unaware of the many attacks that have been thwarted by our increased vigilance-and we have a long way to go to secure our own borders.There are those that have already forgotten 9/11 and are pissing and moaning about paying$2 plus/gallon of gas. We have alot worse things to worry about. Its a big shit sandwich.*********** Freedom isn't free. Don't forget: Mother Earth is waiting for you--there is a debt you have to pay...... POPS #9329 Commercial Pilot,Instrument MEL Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites tkhayes 154 #11 May 31, 2004 If the middle east is 'destabilized' then I doubt a military force of substantial enough organization or power could be put together to attack Israel. The Israelis are well defended and well practiced in that art. destabilization in the middle east might create concern for Israel, but I would expect that it would also give them justification to attack and expand their borders to control the area and the threat as they see fit TK Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites nacmacfeegle 0 #12 May 31, 2004 "will not go down without a fight-and will utilize tactical nuclear weapons if push came to shove." As will any country who currently posses nuclear capability, otherwise, why have them? "Syria and Iran are a clear and present danger to the west." I'm getting a horrible sensation of Deja Vu here......-------------------- He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me. Thomas Jefferson Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites rickjump1 0 #13 May 31, 2004 Quotewhat would the region be like if Israel was left alone because of the nukes, but the rest of scenario played out? I'm not sure that is good, either, with the exception of Israel surviving... The power of greed will hopefully unite the moderate Arabs and at least delay your scenario. Egypt, Jordan, Oman, and the UAE have denounced this latest attack. The Al-Bayan Newspaper in the UAE states that "An Arab-Islamic stand is required in order to confront this eroded minority group." Maybe this is the beginning of getting tough.Do your part for global warming: ban beans and hold all popcorn farts. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites damion75 0 #14 June 1, 2004 QuoteCould it be that the little people are sick of getting the shitty end of the stick over oil wealth in places such as Iraq, Saudi, Sudan, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Nigeria? Perhaps the best solution is a 'benevolent' dictatorship like the system in the Oman? Democracy can't work without at least some education (as Iraq will not doubt discover). Perhaps the H/S is not perfect but they might be the best available solution. As for toppling them? I don't think it likely (please don't make me eat my words next year!!) Why? Firstly as already mentioned, it is pretty big, and secondly they are pretty good at playing the popularity game - which is why they did not support the coalition effort this time around. They knew that it would cost them support in the Arab world. Surely a small loss of Western 'Face' is acceptable if it means the survival of a government which is not seriously hostile. As for Israel? I am not too worried on their account! Wasnt it in 1973 when they were attacked by 6 (?) Arab nations at the same time with superior numbers and equipment... but came out on top? They'll be fine!*************** Not one shred of evidence supports the theory that life is serious - look at the platypus. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites diverdriver 5 #15 June 1, 2004 Did the house of Clinton fall when the government building in Oklahoma City, OK was destroyed? I doubt one attack on a housing complex (NOT the oil refinery) will cause the topple of the government of Saudi Arabia. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites falxori 0 #16 June 1, 2004 Quotebut I would expect that it would also give them justification to attack and expand their borders to control the area and the threat as they see fit Israel will not attack unless it has a good reason to do so. we have a peace treaty with egypt and jordan, and we'd like it to stay that way... syria is not a problem either unless it does something stupid like using bio/chem weapons which they have tons of. the threat is more from Iran these days. and not only to Israel... O "Carpe diem, quam minimum credula postero." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites tkhayes 154 #17 June 1, 2004 just what I said - destabilization of the middle east just might be the good reason they need to 'protect themselves'. Especially if they think Iran and Syria are a threat, given that they have all these funky weapons. Hell we did it, looking for weapons that did not exist TK Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites billvon 2,476 #18 June 1, 2004 >If the H/S falls, what do you think would happen next? Not much, in the short term. Control would quickly be taken over by a more militant/fundamentalist government, and they would become a lot more like Syria. Unless they were complete idiots, they would keep the oil flowing, since it is the universally-recognized source of Saudi Arabia's success. In terms of the US, we'd probably just hasten our transfer of military assets from Saudi Arabia to Qatar, unless we decide to intervene and prop up the current government. Of course, we seem to fail in our attempts to do that pretty regularly. >Personally, I think that if they do fall, it will domino throughout the middle >east. We will see such destabilization as not seen before, and the entire >region will be struggling for control of their national resources (i.e. oil). I tend to doubt that. Government change does not generally equate to a re-partitioning of a country. If it's the result of a Syrian invasion, of course, then all bets are off. But if it's a coup by Saudis? I suspect they will have as much interest in defending their borders as the current monarchy. >Israel will be anhiliated . . . Nothing will change with Israel. They will continue to exist if we support them and will fall if we do not, but that's not any different from today. >Do you think the US would support the H/S? If it happens while Bush is in office, I suspect he will support the monarchy militarily. Such a plan is part of the PNAC outline, and Bush has given every indication that he is following their plans. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites DrunkMonkey 0 #19 June 2, 2004 I prefer the House of Pancakes to the House of Saud. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Join the conversation You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account. Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible. Reply to this topic... × Pasted as rich text. Paste as plain text instead Only 75 emoji are allowed. × Your link has been automatically embedded. Display as a link instead × Your previous content has been restored. 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Michele 1 #5 May 31, 2004 QuoteThey would certainly use these nuclear weapons for survival today Agreed. But what would the region be like if Israel was left alone because of the nukes, but the rest of scenario played out? I'm not sure that is good, either, with the exception of Israel surviving... Ciels- Michele ~Do Angels keep the dreams we seek While our hearts lie bleeding?~ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Erroll 53 #6 May 31, 2004 Quote Do you think the H/S has done enough to fight terrorism within it's own borders? The majority of terrorists involved with 9/11 were Saudi. I count a large number of Moslems amongst my friends and colleagues. Not a single one of them will shed a tear should the 'House of Saud' fall. The scenario you paint is not unlike the one that was painted during the run-up to the end of the Sha's reign in Iran. It did not materialise and the conflicts remained, in the main, localised. I am not informed enough to make a call about what the US's role should be. However, in my (uninformed) opinion, the US should not support the House of Saud in the event of it's demise. Instead, it should maintain strong diplomatic contact with any new government, in the interests of balance of power. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Skyrad 0 #7 May 31, 2004 I don't think it will happen. The H/S is huge, absolutly massive and very embedded in the nations power structure. Even if the curreent people were to be overthrown I've no doubt the power vacuum would be filled by other H/S members.When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy. Lucius Annaeus Seneca Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nacmacfeegle 0 #8 May 31, 2004 Interesting train of thought Michelle, could the HS be likened to the demise of the Romanoffs during the Russian revolution? Could it be that the little people are sick of getting the shitty end of the stick over oil wealth in places such as Iraq, Saudi, Sudan, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Nigeria?-------------------- He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me. Thomas Jefferson Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
falxori 0 #9 May 31, 2004 QuoteIsrael will be anhiliated gee thanks, what did I ever do to you ??? O "Carpe diem, quam minimum credula postero." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
argon 0 #10 May 31, 2004 The House of Saud has made its own bed and now must sleep in it. None of this violence has anything to do with wealth,oil etc.. The extremists truly hate the west and all its ideals. Isreal is truly in danger but will not go down without a fight-and will utilize tactical nuclear weapons if push came to shove. Syria and Iran are a clear and present danger to the west. The House of Saud hasn't been struck hard enough yet to realize they can't continue to use cash and safe harbor for these home grown fanatics.IMHO,we haven't seen the worst of any of these scenarios yet. The American public is unaware of the many attacks that have been thwarted by our increased vigilance-and we have a long way to go to secure our own borders.There are those that have already forgotten 9/11 and are pissing and moaning about paying$2 plus/gallon of gas. We have alot worse things to worry about. Its a big shit sandwich.*********** Freedom isn't free. Don't forget: Mother Earth is waiting for you--there is a debt you have to pay...... POPS #9329 Commercial Pilot,Instrument MEL Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tkhayes 154 #11 May 31, 2004 If the middle east is 'destabilized' then I doubt a military force of substantial enough organization or power could be put together to attack Israel. The Israelis are well defended and well practiced in that art. destabilization in the middle east might create concern for Israel, but I would expect that it would also give them justification to attack and expand their borders to control the area and the threat as they see fit TK Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nacmacfeegle 0 #12 May 31, 2004 "will not go down without a fight-and will utilize tactical nuclear weapons if push came to shove." As will any country who currently posses nuclear capability, otherwise, why have them? "Syria and Iran are a clear and present danger to the west." I'm getting a horrible sensation of Deja Vu here......-------------------- He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me. Thomas Jefferson Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rickjump1 0 #13 May 31, 2004 Quotewhat would the region be like if Israel was left alone because of the nukes, but the rest of scenario played out? I'm not sure that is good, either, with the exception of Israel surviving... The power of greed will hopefully unite the moderate Arabs and at least delay your scenario. Egypt, Jordan, Oman, and the UAE have denounced this latest attack. The Al-Bayan Newspaper in the UAE states that "An Arab-Islamic stand is required in order to confront this eroded minority group." Maybe this is the beginning of getting tough.Do your part for global warming: ban beans and hold all popcorn farts. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites damion75 0 #14 June 1, 2004 QuoteCould it be that the little people are sick of getting the shitty end of the stick over oil wealth in places such as Iraq, Saudi, Sudan, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Nigeria? Perhaps the best solution is a 'benevolent' dictatorship like the system in the Oman? Democracy can't work without at least some education (as Iraq will not doubt discover). Perhaps the H/S is not perfect but they might be the best available solution. As for toppling them? I don't think it likely (please don't make me eat my words next year!!) Why? Firstly as already mentioned, it is pretty big, and secondly they are pretty good at playing the popularity game - which is why they did not support the coalition effort this time around. They knew that it would cost them support in the Arab world. Surely a small loss of Western 'Face' is acceptable if it means the survival of a government which is not seriously hostile. As for Israel? I am not too worried on their account! Wasnt it in 1973 when they were attacked by 6 (?) Arab nations at the same time with superior numbers and equipment... but came out on top? They'll be fine!*************** Not one shred of evidence supports the theory that life is serious - look at the platypus. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites diverdriver 5 #15 June 1, 2004 Did the house of Clinton fall when the government building in Oklahoma City, OK was destroyed? I doubt one attack on a housing complex (NOT the oil refinery) will cause the topple of the government of Saudi Arabia. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites falxori 0 #16 June 1, 2004 Quotebut I would expect that it would also give them justification to attack and expand their borders to control the area and the threat as they see fit Israel will not attack unless it has a good reason to do so. we have a peace treaty with egypt and jordan, and we'd like it to stay that way... syria is not a problem either unless it does something stupid like using bio/chem weapons which they have tons of. the threat is more from Iran these days. and not only to Israel... O "Carpe diem, quam minimum credula postero." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites tkhayes 154 #17 June 1, 2004 just what I said - destabilization of the middle east just might be the good reason they need to 'protect themselves'. Especially if they think Iran and Syria are a threat, given that they have all these funky weapons. Hell we did it, looking for weapons that did not exist TK Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites billvon 2,476 #18 June 1, 2004 >If the H/S falls, what do you think would happen next? Not much, in the short term. Control would quickly be taken over by a more militant/fundamentalist government, and they would become a lot more like Syria. Unless they were complete idiots, they would keep the oil flowing, since it is the universally-recognized source of Saudi Arabia's success. In terms of the US, we'd probably just hasten our transfer of military assets from Saudi Arabia to Qatar, unless we decide to intervene and prop up the current government. Of course, we seem to fail in our attempts to do that pretty regularly. >Personally, I think that if they do fall, it will domino throughout the middle >east. We will see such destabilization as not seen before, and the entire >region will be struggling for control of their national resources (i.e. oil). I tend to doubt that. Government change does not generally equate to a re-partitioning of a country. If it's the result of a Syrian invasion, of course, then all bets are off. But if it's a coup by Saudis? I suspect they will have as much interest in defending their borders as the current monarchy. >Israel will be anhiliated . . . Nothing will change with Israel. They will continue to exist if we support them and will fall if we do not, but that's not any different from today. >Do you think the US would support the H/S? If it happens while Bush is in office, I suspect he will support the monarchy militarily. Such a plan is part of the PNAC outline, and Bush has given every indication that he is following their plans. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites DrunkMonkey 0 #19 June 2, 2004 I prefer the House of Pancakes to the House of Saud. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Join the conversation You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account. Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible. Reply to this topic... × Pasted as rich text. Paste as plain text instead Only 75 emoji are allowed. × Your link has been automatically embedded. Display as a link instead × Your previous content has been restored. Clear editor × You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL. Insert image from URL × Desktop Tablet Phone Submit Reply 0
damion75 0 #14 June 1, 2004 QuoteCould it be that the little people are sick of getting the shitty end of the stick over oil wealth in places such as Iraq, Saudi, Sudan, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Nigeria? Perhaps the best solution is a 'benevolent' dictatorship like the system in the Oman? Democracy can't work without at least some education (as Iraq will not doubt discover). Perhaps the H/S is not perfect but they might be the best available solution. As for toppling them? I don't think it likely (please don't make me eat my words next year!!) Why? Firstly as already mentioned, it is pretty big, and secondly they are pretty good at playing the popularity game - which is why they did not support the coalition effort this time around. They knew that it would cost them support in the Arab world. Surely a small loss of Western 'Face' is acceptable if it means the survival of a government which is not seriously hostile. As for Israel? I am not too worried on their account! Wasnt it in 1973 when they were attacked by 6 (?) Arab nations at the same time with superior numbers and equipment... but came out on top? They'll be fine!*************** Not one shred of evidence supports the theory that life is serious - look at the platypus. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
diverdriver 5 #15 June 1, 2004 Did the house of Clinton fall when the government building in Oklahoma City, OK was destroyed? I doubt one attack on a housing complex (NOT the oil refinery) will cause the topple of the government of Saudi Arabia. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
falxori 0 #16 June 1, 2004 Quotebut I would expect that it would also give them justification to attack and expand their borders to control the area and the threat as they see fit Israel will not attack unless it has a good reason to do so. we have a peace treaty with egypt and jordan, and we'd like it to stay that way... syria is not a problem either unless it does something stupid like using bio/chem weapons which they have tons of. the threat is more from Iran these days. and not only to Israel... O "Carpe diem, quam minimum credula postero." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tkhayes 154 #17 June 1, 2004 just what I said - destabilization of the middle east just might be the good reason they need to 'protect themselves'. Especially if they think Iran and Syria are a threat, given that they have all these funky weapons. Hell we did it, looking for weapons that did not exist TK Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 2,476 #18 June 1, 2004 >If the H/S falls, what do you think would happen next? Not much, in the short term. Control would quickly be taken over by a more militant/fundamentalist government, and they would become a lot more like Syria. Unless they were complete idiots, they would keep the oil flowing, since it is the universally-recognized source of Saudi Arabia's success. In terms of the US, we'd probably just hasten our transfer of military assets from Saudi Arabia to Qatar, unless we decide to intervene and prop up the current government. Of course, we seem to fail in our attempts to do that pretty regularly. >Personally, I think that if they do fall, it will domino throughout the middle >east. We will see such destabilization as not seen before, and the entire >region will be struggling for control of their national resources (i.e. oil). I tend to doubt that. Government change does not generally equate to a re-partitioning of a country. If it's the result of a Syrian invasion, of course, then all bets are off. But if it's a coup by Saudis? I suspect they will have as much interest in defending their borders as the current monarchy. >Israel will be anhiliated . . . Nothing will change with Israel. They will continue to exist if we support them and will fall if we do not, but that's not any different from today. >Do you think the US would support the H/S? If it happens while Bush is in office, I suspect he will support the monarchy militarily. Such a plan is part of the PNAC outline, and Bush has given every indication that he is following their plans. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DrunkMonkey 0 #19 June 2, 2004 I prefer the House of Pancakes to the House of Saud. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
