I'll stop buying lottery tickets now

[lawrocket 3]

I always thought that the lottery was a voluntary tax on people who were bad at math. I therefore bought them occasionally.

So last night we get a phone call. My lady's aunt and uncle just won 28 million dollars in the California Lotto. Given the odds of two family members willing separately, it's simply going to make the odds worse.

So, I am happy that there will be at least one wealthy family member. Somehow, though, I wish it was me.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[Remster 24]

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Given the odds of two family members willing separately, it's simply going to make the odds worse.

Prior to them wining, yes. Now that they've won, you're back on the square one of probabilities.

Remster

[ChasingBlueSky 0]

Do they want to adopt a 30 year old skydiver?

_________________________________________
you can burn the land and boil the sea, but you can't take the sky from me....
I WILL fly again.....

[narcimund 0]

Such funny ways of discussing lottery winnings we use... 28 million dollars actually means about 7 million dollars.

It would be as if when you bought a $150,000 house you told everyone it was a $450,000 house because that's what the total payments would be including interest.

Still, 7 million is a nice amount of money.

First Class Citizen Twice Over

[lawrocket 3]

Is that so? Hmmm.

I always thought that there was a 1 in a million chance of a bomb on a plane, and a 1 in a billion chance of two. I figured that I'd lower the odds and bring a bomb.

IS that logic flawed?

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[JeffD 0]

Make sure they take a lump sum. and invest at least half of it, and pretend they didn't win. THen just start using all of the interest to do whatever they want to. OH and the best/safest investment would be $100,000 CD's all at different banks. (FDIC only insures 100k at each bank your with)

Just dont start asking them for money, I'd hate that if I won. Of course I would help out my friends on my own but I woulden't give them a dime if they asked me for it.

Still waiting for my ticket though.
come on 1/23,000,000 odds !!!


Edited to say ** Most people that win the lottery go bankrupt.

[lawrocket 3]

Yeah, I'm 30 and I am won't ask. I don't know them yet.

And narci, they went for the 20 year payment plan. They'll get 600k per year for twenty years. I think that at the end of the 20 years, they'll get another lump sum of several million. It'll bring it up to 18 or 20 million total, after taxes.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[Rebecca 0]

They did WHAT????

How do they know they'll live that long? Don't they want to invest it themselves?

Why did they do that???

you've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel loquacious?' -- well do you, punk?

[Remster 24]

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Why did they do that???

Why not... its enough money for anyone, and its headhacke free.

Remster

[lawrocket 3]

Hell, I'd take the 20 year plan. There's really no risk. And coming from me, who is used to being so poor he can't even pay attention, I'd think $600k per year is a good thing. I figure that with them, even if they blow a milion dollars in the next two years, they still have that check coming in next year for 600k.

I know many would say to invest it. But, if you are risk averse, a guaranteed payment is a good thing to have. Especialy if it is 600k per year. I can't arue with it.

And, they'll get twice as much that way, in the long run.

Who here would take 20 years over the lump sum? I would.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[narcimund 0]

At a 50% total tax rate (rough guess) they'll take home 14 million over 20 years. But the inflation makes it far, far less.

Figure the effects of inflation (effectively the lost interest) over 20 years. Let's very conservatively estimate inflation will never rise again. At 3%/year, you've got a total of about 86% inflation by the end eating progressively more and more. The last $600,000 payment is effectively $84,000. The good news is that probably wouldn't trigger such a high tax rate, but that's a small consolation.

And since 57% of the willings come at the very tail end, you can deduct 86% of that, reducing the final payment from 16 million to an effective windfall of 2.25 million in 2003 dollars. Total cost of inflation on that one final payment: $13,750,000. Take that off the top.

It's lovely to have bunches of money, but it's nowhere near what the marketing hype makes it sound like.

First Class Citizen Twice Over

[ChasingBlueSky 0]

Take lump sum - it's mine, I want it now and I don't know if that office will still have all my money 20 years from now. It's a risk, but give it to me.

_________________________________________
you can burn the land and boil the sea, but you can't take the sky from me....
I WILL fly again.....

[pleifer 0]

Yea there is a chance albit a small one that the lottery commision goes bankrupt. i'd take the lump sum that is when i win the lotto. A guy 60 years old won 3 mil in the oregon mega bucks, and kept working......moron

_________________________________________
The Angel of Duh has spoke

[Ira 0]

Think how full you could stuff your mattress with a Lump Sum payment.

[Muenkel 0]

Definitely lump sum here. More control over it.

Now, you are going to start cutting their lawn like the good nephew-in-law that you are, aren't you?

_________________________________________
Chris

[TaeKwonDoDo 0]

Quote

Hell, I'd take the 20 year plan. There's really no risk.

Dude - this is CALIFORNIA! NO RISK YOU SAY????

Our bonds are at Junk status right now! I'd take the cash NOW! The way this state is run who knows if they're going to be filing bankrupcy and tell all the lotto winners to go pound sand .

- Jeff

"That's not flying, it's falling with style."

[lawrocket 3]

Naw, I won't start mowing their lawns. I am not going to treat them any differently than I ordinarily would. Although this might provide a good opportunity to finally meet them.

Of course, I don't expect to ever see a cent of it for my personal use. Neither does my honey. Indeed, both of us are the type who would, if we see them giving away vast sums, tell them, "you really need to have a second thought about that."

We'd like to see some, of course. But, we'd rather they help take care of grandma and grandpa, you know. They need all the help they can get right now.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[Atlas 0]

Heh, odds never change depending on who wins. Just how many [combinations there are]. The chances of you winning after they win, are statistically different than you winning without them winning. But it honestly has no effect on wether or not you win, because you're still one out of several million people playing [and each person has the same chance to win], no matter your relation to anyone :)

Odds are just a way to think about things, and if you take them too seriously, it's not going to do you any good to have them in the first place. If you bought a lottery ticket before, your chances are [exactly] the same, depending on how many [combinations are on the ticket] :)

Wow, that's some rambling.. oh well :P

EDIT: Changed to reflect Remster's corrections... I was incorrect, but on the right track.

[Remster 24]

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Just how many are playing

sigh...


no.

Its based on how many number combinaisons are possible.

The probability of not sharing the loot is depending on how many play, but not winning it.

Quote

If you bought a lottery ticket before, your chances are more/less the same, depending on how many people play :)

They are actually exactly the same, and as I said not dependent on how many people play.

I dont know the exact odds of that perticular lotary, but say, before, you own odd of winning was 1/14 million on a single event.

The odd that you will win in your lifetime is 1 / 14 million * the number of draws you want to consider (say 20 years * 52 weeks * twice a week)

The odd of anothe member of your familly winning, and then you winning is 1/(14 million)^2 * the number of draws you want to consider. BUT once one of the condition is met (ie the inlaws winning), your odds are back to 1 /14 mil for each individual event. The little balls dont care that it was your inlaws who won.

Remster

[Atlas 0]

Hope I made you happy Remster... :)

[livendive 8]

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Who here would take 20 years over the lump sum? I would.

I think I'd probably take the lump sum, although the Washington lottery is now high enough that I'd consider the payments. At 45 million, I'd be getting right around 1 million per year for 25 years (after taxes). Then again I could take the lump sum of 22.5 million, pay the 9 million or so in taxes, and invest 9-10 million at a decent interest rate, keeping 3.5-4.5 M for paying off my families houses, splurging a little on some fun things, and getting my own business up and running. Hmm...the lump sum is worth considerably more, but the payments would reduce headache and insure against blowing it all. I'm not sure what I'd choose...though I sure would like to consider the decision in something other than theoretical terms. :-)

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[meatmissile 0]

Tell Auntie her long lost distant cousin thrice removed from Africa says hi.

--
ZZZzzzz....

[Steel 0]

I see winning the lottery as a gift from god. Being a mathematician I have always throught its a stupid way to waste a dollar. But now I feel that god owes me something. I feel he has screwed me over enough by destroying me career. I blame Democrat politicians (for tax & spend harm to the over all economy), I blame telecom CEO's for stupid ideas which they knew would fail but made them a fortune in the short run, and I blame god for letting it all happen. Still in order to give God a chance to redeem himself, so I can get back to being a good Catholic, I have started playing the lottery.

If I could make a wish, I think I'd pass.
Can't think of anything I need
No cigarettes, no sleep, no light, no sound.
Nothing to eat, no books to read.

[NoShitThereIWas 0]

I'm not sure about this, but your probability of winning the lottery may be no different even though a family member of your lady's hit it.

Since I think they are independent events, your odds would be equally as bad as your family member's.

I could be wrong though ...

Roy Bacon: "Elvises, light your fires."

Sting: "Be yourself no matter what they say."

[pds 0]

Quote

Is that so? Hmmm.

I always thought that there was a 1 in a million chance of a bomb on a plane, and a 1 in a billion chance of two. I figured that I'd lower the odds and bring a bomb.

IS that logic flawed?

is not logic - is probability

namaste, motherfucker.