JaapSuter 0 #1 March 15, 2006 Imagine some hypothetical guy from the future shows up and says... "You're going to die on one of your next N jumps!" Loopholes and paradoxes aside, assume he is speaking the truth. What is the biggest N for which you would quit BASE? Edited to add... I realize this question can be confusing at first. So let's take it one step at a time to illustrate. The guy comes up to you and says: "You're going to die on your next jump." Would you still jump? I doubt it. It'd be suicide. Now the guy comes up to you and says: "You're going to die on your next jump, or the one following that." Effectively this creates a fifty fifty chance you may die on your next jump. For all the talk from the fifty fifty crowd, I honestly don't believe there are many BASE jumpers that give themselves that low a success rate before they jump. So most would still quit... Now the guy comes up to you and says: "You're going to die within the next ten jumps." Would you still jump now? You're given a one in ten chance that you're going to survive the next jump. It may be worth it, or not quite yet. What if the guy says: "You're going to die within the next 10,000 jumps." Would you continue then? So spend some time and think about where your sweet spot is. That's your N. It's not important what your sweet spot is. It depends on the quality of the jumps and the quality of your life outside of BASE. It can also change over time. But if you happen to have a number, then realize the following. If you have a low number, you're taking a rather suicidal approach to BASE. Apparently it's worth it to you. Great! If you have a very high number, you're effectively assuming you're a good enough BASE jumper to survive at least N-1 jumps. That means if you pick a number that is higher than the highest number of jumps anybody has ever made, you are effectively saying you are a safer BASE jumper than every single person on the fatality list. Granted, given that their fatalities preceded yours it gives you more information and arguably changes the probability dynamics. That's the whole point of learning from other people's mistakes. Just sharing some food for thought here... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
base736 0 #2 March 15, 2006 '100,000'. Because, at my core, I'm soft and always looking for a reason to quit anyway. ... Or, alternatively, for the reasons you and I have already discussed :). Actually, I incorrectly voted '1'. But in addition to being soft, I'm also not that bright. So, you know, whatever... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vandev 0 #3 March 15, 2006 QuoteImagine some hypothetical guy from the future shows up and says... "You're going to die on one of your next N jumps!" I dont think it would be a numbers thing....I think of it as a experiance thing....would you quit after having say 5 "superterminal" jumps or 100 5 secound delay jumps....It's different for everyone... But what if he said " your going to die on one of your next N jumps ...but if you quit now , you'll live 10 years longer but you'll die in a car accident caused by a f&&^ing drunk driver..... You need to get jumping soon again.... chris In the end...the universe has a way of working itself out.... "Harold and Kumar go to White Castle" Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JaapSuter 0 #4 March 15, 2006 Quotebut if you quit now , you'll live 10 years longer but you'll die in a car accident caused by a f&&^ing drunk driver..... Ugh, here comes the drunk driver again. He's always just around the corner in these types of discussions. With all due respect; I think you're largely underestimating the risk of BASE and overestimating the risk of being in traffic if you bring up the drunk driver. Remember that typical involvement in traffic takes up more time than the typical time from exit to landing. But even so, you're hypothetical question is valid. Die in the next hundred jumps or live another 10 years (regardless of cause of death)? Kinda depends on how enjoyable your life would be without BASE I suppose. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vandev 0 #5 March 15, 2006 QuoteI think you're largely underestimating the risk of BASE and overestimating the risk of being in traffic You have not lived in south florida.... If you dont see a couple of bodie bags on the road every week somethings wrong.... You have no idea how F**&ing stupid the drivers are here.... My kids love driving with me just so they can hear me say every 2 minutes 'F@*&ing Morron" And no, i have not underestimated base... hucking yourself off any object...your dead...and then you save yourself.......sometimes.... I don't think that by your posts... that your life would be as enjoyable.... "i did say "AS" you seem to be having a pretty good time... Just my 2 cents.... all the best Japp.......Chris In the end...the universe has a way of working itself out.... "Harold and Kumar go to White Castle" Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tr027 0 #6 March 15, 2006 Jaap: What if we are operating with the assumption that each subsequent burn in hurts the image of sport, effectively hurting the sport itself through increased attention, etc. If you don't quit, you then know you are or will hurt the sport out of your own selfishness? Is that acceptable? Also, if you are with your crew when the guy from the future tells you this, how many will keep jumping with you?"The evil of the world is made possible by nothing but the sanction you give it. " -John Galt from Atlas Shrugged, 1957 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JaapSuter 0 #7 March 15, 2006 QuoteI don't think that by your posts... that your life would be as enjoyable...."i did say "AS" you seem to be having a pretty good time... Yeah bro, I do plenty of things outside of BASE. I just don't talk about them here. Edited to add: cue funny comment from Abbie here... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JaapSuter 0 #8 March 15, 2006 QuoteWhat if we are operating with the assumption that each subsequent burn in hurts the image of sport, effectively hurting the sport itself through increased attention, etc. If you don't quit, you then know you are or will hurt the sport out of your own selfishness? Is that acceptable? Also, if you are with your crew when the guy from the future tells you this, how many will keep jumping with you? Those are very interesting questions! Thanks for asking, I hadn't considered these. That said, they answer a different question than the one I tried to make, namely; how much is your life worth to you? And yes, that question is infinitely more complicated and doesn't lend itself to definitions. But poor approximations can still lead to interesting discussions. The people voting one jump or "I won't quit" are essentially comitting suicide. The people voting 100,000 believe they have enough control on every BASE jump to outlive at least 10,000 jumps (the next smaller option for N). Both are bold claims. For the record; I didn't vote. Yet. It's a difficult question. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dmcoco84 4 #9 March 15, 2006 I wouldn't quit.... Ever. Its already possible I could die on one of my next N jumps. That’s why you make every jump count and never take for granted the fact that we are able to take part in such an incredible sport. Coco QuoteImagine some hypothetical guy from the future shows up and says... "You're going to die on one of your next N jumps!" Loopholes and paradoxes aside, assume he is speaking the truth. What is the biggest N for which you would quit BASE? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JaapSuter 0 #10 March 15, 2006 QuoteI wouldn't quit.... Ever. Do you realize what you're saying? So the guy comes up to you and says: "You're going to die on your next jump." You're still going to jump... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FIREFLYR 0 #11 March 15, 2006 If I was told I would die on a BASE jump within the next 10,000...the number might as well be 1500 because I dont think I'll ever reach many more than 1500 anyway. If I knew I would die BASE jumping I wouldn't jump anymore, it would take the fun out of it... I would always wonder..."is this the one?" I'll take the chance but not the certainty of death. ~J"One flew East,and one flew West..............one flew over the cuckoo's nest" "There's absolutely no excuse for the way I'm about to act" Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
monkey1031 0 #12 March 15, 2006 I think the guy who has offered the "N" jump posts here... Or at least reads this forum... -smd7 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JaapSuter 0 #13 March 15, 2006 QuoteI'll take the chance but not the certainty of death. That's a nugget. Great stuff Jamie! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
980 0 #14 March 15, 2006 Quote"is this the one?" Jamie, that's seriously funny, because it reminds of something... just over a week after my FJC, I was still in Twin Falls and on around my 40th jump, as I had climbed out and got ready to go, Johnny Utah is pointing his camcorder at me and recording: Johnny - 'So, do you think this jump could be the one?' me - 'which one?' Johnny - 'the one that kills you' My goal is to do 5000 or die trying. I think desensitization, boredom and complacency are the biggest obstacles in the way. QuoteI'll take the chance but not the certainty of death. we all have the certainty of death already whether we basejump or not Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DexterBase 0 #15 March 15, 2006 I don't know much about statistics or odds... Is it possible to do 1000 jumps, each jump having a 1 in 10 chance of killing you, and not die? I think it should be perfectly possible. The odds of getting killed on a jump are completely separate from your odds on the next jump. Say you have a 1:2 chance of dying. You jump and don't die. On the next jump you still have the same 1:2 chance right? You're not guaranteed a fatality just beacause you survived the previous 1:2 jump... right? I'd say that if every BASE jump I did carried a 1:200 chance of killing me, I'd still jump about the same rate as I do. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mfob 0 #16 March 15, 2006 the quote we all should live by is "have fun, don't die" if you dont feel like you shouldn't jump, dont. Its all up to oneself how you live your life and the chances you take. I think if you live it vicariously you will have a mishap. Or if you have a good thinking head on your shoulders, you should live as long as the good Lord will let you, wether it be 1 jump or 100,000, that's the chance you take. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tr027 0 #17 March 15, 2006 QuoteI don't know much about statistics or odds... Is it possible to do 1000 jumps, each jump having a 1 in 10 chance of killing you, and not die? I think it should be perfectly possible. The odds of getting killed on a jump are completely separate from your odds on the next jump. right? I'd say that if every BASE jump I did carried a 1:200 chance of killing me, I'd still jump about the same rate as I do. IMO, I would say it's almost like that, except cumulative. Just like if you flip a coin ten times, it IS possible to get 10 heads, but highly unlikely (around <5%). So as you do succeeding flips the chances of getting a tails increases, because through successive flips the chances of all head decreases. From this I would say each successive jump has a higher chance of being "the jump" than the previous one. For which Nth you state the cutoff of probability as being too high is a personal choice based on the individual value judgement of your opportunity costs involved with further enjoyment of life. Or something like that."The evil of the world is made possible by nothing but the sanction you give it. " -John Galt from Atlas Shrugged, 1957 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dmcoco84 4 #18 March 15, 2006 Well Jaap.....YES. I'd still jump. Most would think that is crazy but for myself I don’t. I honestly don’t think I could live the next 50-70 years of my life and never jump again. I wouldn’t be happy. It would be like that character in Greek mythology that had to push a boulder up a hill for eternity only to have it roll back down every time he got close. It would be torture! I’d rather have one more jump than to spend years dreaming about it and wishing I could jump. Yes there are other thinks in life other than BASE that are fun but for me they are secondary. I recently got into a local fire department and found out through a friend with contacts that if I were to get arrested and charged with trespassing I would get kicked out no questions asked while still in the academy (after I graduate that changes but I’d still be in some shit). But there is no way I could stop jumping for even a year to prevent loosing my job if I were to get busted. Even my parents laughed and were like there is no way in hell your gonna stop jumping. I’d rather risk it, keep jumping and be happy than to play it safe and be miserable. (But, I am only doing low bust risk jumps until I finish with TRFA.) I think you’d really need to know more about why skydiving and BASE are so important to me and what it does for me to understand where I’m coming from but I’m not really gonna get into that. Now for the hypothetical, if this guy says my next jump will be my last, I’d first tell him he is full of shit. Then I’m going pay Todd and Jimmy to inspect and rig me up a sorcerer and a belly mount reserve, jump it off a very “safe” object like NRGB, static line the first canopy from the catwalk, have about 3 boats in the river along with paramedics on the shore. If I still die well then, shit! I guess it was still meant to be. Coco QuoteQuoteI wouldn't quit.... Ever. Do you realize what you're saying? So the guy comes up to you and says: "You're going to die on your next jump." You're still going to jump... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dmcoco84 4 #19 March 15, 2006 Makes sense to me! Coco Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dhracer33 0 #20 March 15, 2006 you forgot to add this option to the poll.... how about, "would rather shoot himself in the head then vote in this poll".... type less, jump more Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
klapaucius 0 #21 March 15, 2006 How many people have made 1000 jumps and are still in the sport? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
blitzkrieg 0 #23 March 15, 2006 if some asshole comes up to me and throws the "N" word in my face with the combination of the word die... i'm gonna pistol whip him until he begs for his life. then when the cops come... i jump. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lifewithoutanet 0 #24 March 15, 2006 I can't vote. I can't say when or if I would quit because 1.) I'm not quitting now and 2.) I do not know what mindset I will have when I reach 1,000, 10,000, or however many jumps. That is the future. If I apply my logic, knowledge and experience today to my 1000th jump--and if I stick to that number and quit--then those 889 jumps between now and then will have been meaningless. I'll have learned nothing. I'll have stopped evolving. Life is nothing if not used to experience the unknown and to build from one experience to the next. Quantifiable figures in BASE or anything risky...I just don't buy it. I always hear people talk about "100 things to do before I die". Anything only worth doing once isn't worth doing at all, in my book. I don't have an official list of my own, but if I did, it would be "100 things to keep doing before I die". This list would change and evolve over time, molded from actual experience, which we all know doesn't come from doing something only once, or exactly 100, 1,000, or 10,000 times. -C. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PerFlare 0 #25 March 15, 2006 If a guy told me that this is the jump that will get me killed I would smile and ask "how do you know that?" ... and then … put some money where your mouth is, I bet you a million dollar that I will survive. Two reasons, it will make me rich and I am a basejumper … nobody really tells me what to do ;) PerFlare Team Bautasten Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
