Odds ofmalfunction/cutaway on first jump?

[freeasabird 0]

Anyone know the odds of having a malfunction requiring a cutaway on the first jump? Does 1 in 1000 sound reasonable?

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[Jimbo 0]

The odds of having a malfunction on your first jump are the same the odds of having a malfunction on any jump. The numbers these days seem to suggest about 1 in 600.

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Jim

"Like" - The modern day comma
Good bye, my friends. You are missed.

[skydiver30960 0]

I could spin this argument either way...

This way: Students are more malfie prone, so the odds would be HIGHER. Examples: they might overreact (but that's a bad word, when in doubt whip it out) to something that would be fixable. I once watched a student cut away from about 1.5 line twists on a Manta. Their lack of experience could also lead to a malfunction, i.e. tumbling at deployment time.

That way: Students jump mellow, predictable gear, so the odds would be LOWER. No spinning malfunctions, which is one of the main reasons we're taking rides nowadays.

Elvisio "clear as mud" Rodriguez

[slug 1]

No matter how many jumps you got 1-10k you have to assume and be ready for a malfunction on every jump. Thats one of the things that make the sport relatively safe.

What are the odds of having a mal back to back? What are the odds of having a two tandem fatalities (one passenger, one driver) at the same DZ on the same weekend? They have happened (first hand knowledge).

R.I.P.

[AndyMan 7]

It depends. Static Line, Tandem, or AFF?

The best odds are definately with Tandem, and I'd put the odds probably somewhere around 1 in 5,000.

With AFF, I'd put the odds probably somewhere around 1 in 1,000, and with static line I'd put the odds just slightly worse... I dunno - 1 in 800?

Student rigs are usually packed by profesional packers, who often have full rigging credentials. Student rigs SHOULD malfunction at a rate much less then the population at large. This is certainly the case with tandems.

With AFF and static lines, students often contribute to the malfunctions themselves, most often by deploying unstable. This is most common in static-line where students COMPLETELY hose the exit, they might find their feet or legs tangled up in lines, or worse. Additionally, simple line overs and line twists are common.

AFF also has unstable students deploying, but this is fortunately pretty rare as instructors tend to do a pretty good job of keeping students stable at deployment time. Sometimes students do deploy while spinning, or go head-down at deployment time. These can cause similar minor slow-speed malfunctions.

Keep in mind, everything mentioned here are slow speed malfunctions, and these are pretty easy to deal with. I wouldn't be picking a instructional method simply based on rates of malfunctions.... I hope that's not the purpose of this thread.

_Am

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You put the fun in "funnel" - craichead.

[JohnMitchell 14]

[reply***]It depends. Static Line, Tandem, or AFF?

The best odds are definately with Tandem, and I'd put the odds probably somewhere around 1 in 5,000.

With AFF, I'd put the odds probably somewhere around 1 in 1,000, and with static line I'd put the odds just slightly worse... I dunno - 1 in 800?

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My experience has been 1 in 500 or worse for tandem, S/L hardly ever, maybe 1 in 2000. Those direct bag deployments and mellow canopies are really reliable. I can't really give an opinion on AFF, but they do happen there, too.

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[Dieselgrl 0]

I've been told that the odds of a mal/cutaway on student gear (assuming its been packed by a professional rigger) is around 1/800.

Mine was jump #21 (student gear, good rigger), with a lineover I couldn't clear.

Then again, I know a bunch of experienced jumpers who have never had to cutaway...

[thelem 0]

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The odds of having a malfunction on your first jump are the same the odds of having a malfunction on any jump. The numbers these days seem to suggest about 1 in 600.

Not strictly true, but probably the best answer that can be given.

There are so many factors which affect the probability of a mal on a particular jump:
* What you are doing (SL/AFF/Tandem/FS/FF/CRW)
* What gear you are using, and how it is being maintained
* Procedures where you are jumping
* How the rig was packed
* The jumper themselves
* The height you pull (i.e. do you have time to clear nuisence factors)

For the average jump, the odds are in the region of 1 in 750.

The number of malfunctions someone has had in the past, or when their last malfunction was, are statistically insignificant, although they may point to problems (or lack thereof) with the points above.

[NoShitThereIWas 0]

I agree with Jimbo in that the odds would not change if it was your first or 1000th. It really depends on the packer's odds to pack you one. Mals aren't "always" from packing, but most of them are.

I have only heard of one instance when something happened to a first jump student. Supposedly when my ex-husband went to make his first jump (this was a long time ago, probably in the early 80s) he witnessed another first jump student go in from a mal (or not appropriately handling the mal). I figured that would freak anyone out enough to make them walk away but Randy went and probably figured what are the odds it would happen twice in one day?

Roy Bacon: "Elvises, light your fires."

Sting: "Be yourself no matter what they say."

[addicted 0]

I know this is a strange question, but anyway: If the odds for a normal cutaway are like 1:600, what will the odds be for a main (or reserve) carefully packed by a rigger having a malfunction? I think reserve mal's must be extremely rare.. is it just me?

[Reginald 0]

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I know this is a strange question, but anyway: If the odds for a normal cutaway are like 1:600, what will the odds be for a main (or reserve) carefully packed by a rigger having a malfunction? I think reserve mal's must be extremely rare.. is it just me?

Good question. I've wondered about it myself. A main is stuffed in a bag in about 10 minutes. A reserve is loveingly prepared and packed. My rigger says he spends about 2 hours on a reserve repack; I'm sure some do it faster though. Hmm, 10 minutes to stuff it in the bag vs. 2 hours. I think the reserve is much less likely to have a mal.

"We've been looking for the enemy for some time now. We've finally found him. We're surrounded. That simplifies things." CP

[NoShitThereIWas 0]

I can tell you this: After being a packer for 3 years I packed tandems, student rigs, sport rigs and my own. I think one day I calculated somewhere in the neighborhood of about 10,000 pack jobs on mains. I never packed a mal (knock on wood) but I pack the same way every time. Main pack jobs are less intensive obviously and some people pack them a bit more carelessly knowing they have one more good parachute.

Personally, if I never see a mal above my head, I won't feel like I am missing anything. I almost had one and that is when I let someone else pack for me who didn't cock my kill line properly.

When I pack a reserve, I am even that much more thorough since now a person who needs to use this parachute is on their last chance and who knows what they had to deal with in the process of getting it out. I think in that regard, the probability of having a reserve malfunction would be way less.

Roy Bacon: "Elvises, light your fires."

Sting: "Be yourself no matter what they say."

[jumperconway 0]

How bout the student that cutaway on their first jump because the slider wouldn't go back up?

[bojanb 0]

Well, let's see. Be warned that the numbers are out of my head, so the result might be wrong.

There's about 2.5 million skydives per year in the US, and the yearly average fatality rate is about 30 jumpers.

Now, I don't remember when was the last time that there was a double malfunction, so we'll calculate for a value of 1 casualty per year due to double mal. If odds for a cutaway are 1:600, that means there are 4167 (2.5 mil/600) of them yearly. That means that the chance of reserve malfunction after a clean cutaway must be less than 1:4000.

Of course, this didn't take into account tandem jumps, etc. My guess is that a chance of reserve mal is around 1:20,000. The general formula would be:

1 : (total number of jumps per year)/(avg jumps per cutaway * number of fatalities per year due to reserve mal)

Cheers!

Bojan

[argon 0]

Does it really matter?The more you know about math and probability you realize how insignificant that question is. People guess the lottery numbers on a daily basis! Luck,fate,destiny,devine intervention-there is no rationalization possible. Fact is if an "event" does not occur to arrest your descent the party is over.(maybe not,depends on what happens after this life-if anything). Bottom line is that no one gets out of here alive. All the numbers do is screw with your head. Life is a gamble. Blue Skies.

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Freedom isn't free. Don't forget: Mother Earth is waiting for you--there is a debt you have to pay...... POPS #9329 Commercial Pilot,Instrument MEL