So what do you think???

[cloudseeker2001 0]

One reason A license may have picked up is because in the early 90's the economy picked up and more people had money to spend on things like skydiving. Another reason could be that tandems are perceived to be a safe introduction to the sport.
Edit wording for Skybytch!

"Some call it heavenly in it's brilliance,
others mean and rueful of the western dream"

[skybytch 259]

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Another reason could be that tandems became a safe introduction to the sport

Tandems did become more "mainstream" in the early 90's, but they are not now, were not then and have never been "safe."

But that perception could play into why so many people quit before they get beyond an A license. They're sold Disneyland with tandems and AAD's but within a short time they discover that skydiving isn't as safe as they were told (whether that's due to injuring themselves or someone they know getting hurt or dying).

Another possibility is that pre-A license jumpers get attention from staff; that attention often stops once they have their card stamped (not because instructors don't want to jump with them but because they are too busy too jump with them). The appeal of solo skydives does wear off after awhile for most people.

I also think people being encouraged to buy canopies that are too small for their experience adds to the quit rate as well. Most would never say that the reason they find other things to do on weekends is that the canopy they are flying scares them; who would admit to that when the "experts" at the dz said they'd be just fine with it? Not to mention injuries caused by being on something they can't handle when shit happens...

There's the money issue as it relates to gear as well; some people want to keep jumping but they can't (or won't) spend that much money on a rig and they're told by gear snobs that the gear they can afford is not safe.

So what can we do to retain them? Stop selling skydiving as a safe activity that anyone can do. Stop telling newbies to buy canopies that they won't be able to land safely when shit happens. Make an effort to get to know (and jump with) the new skydivers at your dz. Perhaps dz's need to hire "Julies" (think Love Boat - Julie was the boat's social director). Don't be a gear snob; older, less expensive equipment is perfectly safe to jump as long as it's jumped within it's set of limitations.

But the best way to retain them would be to encourage every skydiver to smoke cigarettes. Heck, we should include a pack with the FJC. There's no easier way to meet a new person than to walk up and bum a ciggie from them.

[cloudseeker2001 0]

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Another reason could be that tandems became a safe introduction to the sport

Tandems did become more "mainstream" in the early 90's, but they are not now, were not then and have never been "safe."

But that perception could play into why so many people quit before they get beyond an A license. They're sold Disneyland with tandems and AAD's but within a short time they discover that skydiving isn't as safe as they were told (whether that's due to injuring themselves or someone they know getting hurt or dying).

Another possibility is that pre-A license jumpers get attention from staff; that attention often stops once they have their card stamped (not because instructors don't want to jump with them but because they are too busy too jump with them). The appeal of solo skydives does wear off after awhile for most people.

I also think people being encouraged to buy canopies that are too small for their experience adds to the quit rate as well. Most would never say that the reason they find other things to do on weekends is that the canopy they are flying scares them; who would admit to that when the "experts" at the dz said they'd be just fine with it? Not to mention injuries caused by being on something they can't handle when shit happens...

There's the money issue as it relates to gear as well; some people want to keep jumping but they can't (or won't) spend that much money on a rig and they're told by gear snobs that the gear they can afford is not safe.

So what can we do to retain them? Stop selling skydiving as a safe activity that anyone can do. Stop telling newbies to buy canopies that they won't be able to land safely when shit happens. Make an effort to get to know (and jump with) the new skydivers at your dz. Perhaps dz's need to hire "Julies" (think Love Boat - Julie was the boat's social director). Don't be a gear snob; older, less expensive equipment is perfectly safe to jump as long as it's jumped within it's set of limitations.

But the best way to retain them would be to encourage every skydiver to smoke cigarettes. Heck, we should include a pack with the FJC. There's no easier way to meet a new person than to walk up and bum a ciggie from them.

Tandems "safe" in terms of someone else being in charge of the skydive. That may be one of many perspectives people have when thinking of this sport.......When thousands and thousands of people "safely" walk away from a skydive, it is good advertisment and a small percentage of people will take the bait.

I do not know everyones experience, but I am the only person out of about 8 still jumping after student status. Everyone else sold their gear after one year and about 100 jumps. They all sold out because they saw someone get hurt or got hurt themselves.

"Some call it heavenly in it's brilliance,
others mean and rueful of the western dream"

[Samurai136 0]

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But the best way to retain them would be to encourage every skydiver to smoke cigarettes. Heck, we should include a pack with the FJC. There's no easier way to meet a new person than to walk up and bum a ciggie from them.

Truer words have never been spoken.

"Buttons aren't toys." - Trillian
Ken

[fonz 0]

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Heck, we should include a pack with the FJC. There's no easier way to meet a new person than to walk up and bum a ciggie from them.

Heck, where were you when I did my AFF at Perris? I had a whole friggin' carton of Luckies that I bought at the tax free...

Okay, I eventually had to sell them for beer, but still.

Alphons

And five hundred entirely naked women dropped out of the sky on parachutes.
-- The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

[Eule 0]

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Attached is a diagram of license numbers over the years.

I agree that the graph shows a large increase in A licenses relative to the other three licenses. I'm relatively new and I'm not really sure why that is. The ideas below are more along the lines of evaluating some of the reasons that have been suggested.

The suggestion was made to compare this to population, and I think this meant the population of the United States (which is relatively easy to find) and not just the total count of USPA members.

For the "better economy = more jumpers" idea, you could compare this against something like the Dow Jones industrials, or average salary (possibly in real dollars), or something like that.

Another idea might be to put the Y axis (license numbers) on a log scale. This lets you compare the percentage change rather than the absolute change.

The X gridlines (month/year) looks like they're using default intervals calculated by Excel. It might help readability to adjust this so that they each correspond to January of some year. Five years between gridlines might be a good spacing - currently it's about seven.

If you'd be willing to share the spreadsheet with the raw data in it, I'd be happy to create some of these graphs.

Eule

PLF does not stand for Please Land on Face.

[MakeItHappen 15]

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Attached is a diagram of license numbers over the years.

I agree that the graph shows a large increase in A licenses relative to the other three licenses. I'm relatively new and I'm not really sure why that is. The ideas below are more along the lines of evaluating some of the reasons that have been suggested.

The suggestion was made to compare this to population, and I think this meant the population of the United States (which is relatively easy to find) and not just the total count of USPA members.

For the "better economy = more jumpers" idea, you could compare this against something like the Dow Jones industrials, or average salary (possibly in real dollars), or something like that.

Another idea might be to put the Y axis (license numbers) on a log scale. This lets you compare the percentage change rather than the absolute change.

The X gridlines (month/year) looks like they're using default intervals calculated by Excel. It might help readability to adjust this so that they each correspond to January of some year. Five years between gridlines might be a good spacing - currently it's about seven.

If you'd be willing to share the spreadsheet with the raw data in it, I'd be happy to create some of these graphs.

Eule

Well Eule, I certainly appreciate your enthusiasm, but making graphs prettier is not the mission here.

There is something that you might be able to help in.
It's basically a conversion of prices from earlier years into today's dollars.
For instance, I paid $35 per jump after my first jump until I was cleared off student status back in 1981. It took me 25 jumps to get off student status. Now according to this reference my $35 jumps back then would equal $78 jumps today.
I paid $95 for my first jump, via SL, tandem and AFF were not around then. That's $210 2006 dollars.

There are many people that propose the argument that jumping is MUCH MORE expensive today than yesterday. I don't think that is true. I think it is about the same or even a bit less expensive now as compared to years ago.

Would you be willing to convert prices from days ago into today's dollar equivalents?

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Make It Happen
Parachute History
DiveMaker

[Eule 0]

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Well Eule, I certainly appreciate your enthusiasm, but making graphs prettier is not the mission here.

Fair enough... next question... what's the mission? From what I've read so far, it (broadly) is to explain the observed increase in A-license numbers without a corresponding increase in higher license numbers. The next step is presumably to use this explanation to identify ways to reverse this trend and to get all license numbers to increase.

More specifically, several possible explanations have been floated in this thread (and probably elsewhere). Is the idea to look at all of them and see where it ends up? Or is the idea to build support for one or two of the explanations? Or something else?

Please understand that I don't necessarily think that any of these goals (look at all, support one, other) are the wrong answer or a bad thing. It just helps if the goal is defined.

Related to "what's the mission" is: who's the audience? The people who post here? The USPA BoD? DZOs? Instructors? Students? Up-jumpers?

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Would you be willing to convert prices from days ago into today's dollar equivalents?

Sure. For onesy-twosy things I often use this calculator, but if you have a lot of stuff in a spreadsheet it'd be easier to use a table like the one you linked to and do them all at once. I only have the last 1.5 years or so of _Parachutist_, so if you want me to convert the price of a Paradactyl, you'll have to supply the data. :) Let me know.

Eule

PLF does not stand for Please Land on Face.

[wmw999 2,128]

Used to be that in order to jump independently you just had to be off student status at most drop zones, and that was indicated by a signed off logbook. The A license wasn't the line of demarkation.

Now it's what lets you jump with Joe and Jenny Jumper, rather than an instructor, jumpmaster, or coach.

I have a feeling that the early 90's marked a concerted push by the USPA to make the A license that demarkation.

Wendy W.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[MakeItHappen 15]

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Fair enough... next question... what's the mission? From what I've read so far, it (broadly) is to explain the observed increase in A-license numbers without a corresponding increase in higher license numbers. The next step is presumably to use this explanation to identify ways to reverse this trend and to get all license numbers to increase.

The mission is to generate ideas on what factors drive USPA's membership.

USPA is now spending a hefty chunk of change on sport promotion to the whuffo population. Is that the right place?

I'll send you some prices from over the years.

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I have a feeling that the early 90's marked a concerted push by the USPA to make the A license that demarkation.

The change of the definition of 'student' from 'cleared to self-supervise' to 'have an A license' was implemented c1998.

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Make It Happen
Parachute History
DiveMaker

[Elisha 1]

I think you should regraph starting at 1/1/2000 or maybe even earlier.

[MakeItHappen 15]

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I think you should regraph starting at 1/1/2000 or maybe even earlier.

you really mean 'later'?

Be careful what you ask for because you might get it.

BTW, I've been slowly adding the max/min numbers to a DB over this past year.
It just so happens, that I have all the monthly data for this century added in, well, except for Dec because I don't have the mag yet.

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Make It Happen
Parachute History
DiveMaker

[NWFlyer 2]

Just got mine...

A 49764-49966
B 29214-29339
C 35522-35590
D 28604-28666

"There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences." -P.J. O'Rourke

[slug 1]

Hi MIH

IMO the significant increase in A liscense was due to marketing by USPA and the GM DZ's. Win Win for them.

A increase in folks not renewing their liscense or gettting out off the sport? It might be interesting if we could plug in age groups to see if thats another reason for the dropout rate.

Some baby boomers are slowing down, or are tired of playing second fiddle to the to the gravy train $$$.

Maybe some of the old farts are tired of paying dues to a trade organization USPA/GM DZ's that have failed to take action to prevent the the serious injuries from failing to land a perfectly good parachute. (Why have a minimum opening altitude and anything goes for anyone under canopy?)

WAG: 10 DOA/yr due to bad landings x 15 yr's = 150 dead peeps.

Minimum opening altitude is very old school due to severe consequence's of no pull/low pull(DOA). For some reason that factor of safety was not incorperated into landing a good canopy, and the annual stats reflect it.

To bad we don't have stats for broken pelvis's and hips for same reason as the DOA's failure to land a good canopy.

This has been a very good year for the reduction in fatal incidents in the US.

I assume The A liscense holders are single and young when they start jumping, get married, kids, & can't afford the time off work due to serious injuries, and the time spent at the DZ is time away from their families. A breakdown of the age groups might help.

The cost of jumping is going to be hard to compare the cost of fun jumping today. The coach rateing hasn't been around that long and the cost of gear rentalhave both significantly increased the cost of a person getting their "A".

There's also the cost of paying someone to teach a jumper to pack or pay someone else to pack for them. These are also new costs that didn't exist in the bad old days. Almost forgot t people are buying full face helmets, dytters, protracks And altimeters.

Lots of new costs which doesn't do anything to prevent serious incidents from trying to land their canopy on landing.

We could throw in the cost of medical care, lost wages etc. Whats the difference in a broken leg vs hip, pelvis, head, rehab, time off work etc.

Cost of jumping now vs back in the day? Apples vs oranges.

Oops me bad forgot the cost of tunnel time.

Don't worry be happy.

R.I.P.

Who says skydivers are stupid we invented a whole new way to injure/kill ourselves. To bad there isn't a driving force in finding a solution.

[docjohn 0]

BTW - nice work on the graph. Looks like you put alot of effort into it.

If you'd like to fill in some of those gaps, I have every January issue of PARACHUTIST back to the early 70's and many from the 60's.

I tried to PM you but couldn't. PM me if you're interested.




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Doc
http://www.manifestmaster.com/video