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Deuce

DZ.Democratic Caucus, who wins tonight?

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So . . . not who we'd -like- to win, but who we think actually -will- win -- right?

'Cause like, for me, those are two different things.

The guy I'm backing hasn't really spent any time or effort in Iowa.
quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

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Who voted Clark? He's not even part of the 4-way tie right now.

I'd like to see Lieberman vs Bush in the end, at least the contest would pretend to be clean and not shrill. Gephardt might be civil, but something's not right there.

won't happen

per quade's comment - what i'd like isn't the poll, I think Kerry has momentum

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

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It's a toughie.

Dean's got quite the campaign war chest going, but I don't think he plays well in Iowa.

Looking into the FutureCam™ tonight I think it's going to be close between Kerry and Dean with Kerry coming out on top.

I also think Iowa is given too much importance historically and that the GWB team has pretty much nullified any bump these guys are going to get tonight by scheduling the State of the Union Address for tomorrow. GWB recaptures the news cycle and all that gets talked about from Tuesday to the Sunday morning pundits is his speech.

Should be interesting tonight.
quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

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Quote

Who wins tonight?



It really doesn't matter, since the Iowa caucus is meaningless.

The last person to win the Iowa caucus, who also went on to become President, was Jimmy Carter, in 1972.

Since that was over 30 years ago, this caucus is a very poor predictor of who might become president.

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Yeah, but it has a lot to do with the perception of "momentum".

Since Bush isn't in the contest yet, he's running unopposed for the Republican nomination, I don't really think the State of the Union thing will affect the Democratic contest much. Other than the Dem candidates reaction to it.

This is where I think Dean may have gotten a little too rough a little too early. The Dem base had fun with his attacks on Bush, and they really resonated with a lot of folks, but Americans have a hard time staying hot-angry for months at a time.

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I voted Kucinich, 'cause it's about time we had a president in office with a difficult to pronounce last name. Not that I'll actually vote that way later on, as I'm a died in the wool Independant. When forced with a 'lesser of 2 evils' choice, I go for door #3 every time.
It's your life, live it!
Karma
RB#684 "Corcho", ASK#60, Muff#3520, NCB#398, NHDZ#4, C-33989, DG#1

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Oh, come on. I'm not a Democrat, but I am a student of politics, and the American process of elections is really cool. It's messy. The caucus process is especially messy. In Iowa it's totally different than in California. In California, you can't have campaigning, signs, pamphlets etc. within sight, pretty much, of the polling places.

In Iowa tonight, these folks are in a neighbors living room arguing with campaign staffers! Anything can happen!

Wierd and uniquely American, regardless of any party affiliation.

:)

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To answer the question of who will win this particular contest tonight, I would say it will be Kerry. I really have no interest in this race, am not following it, simply because I will not vote for any of the ones that are in this contest tonight! I don't care for their agendas of higher taxes, more and bigger government and increase of socialism, I will vote against any of them, but as to who wins this thing tonight, again, I'd guess it will be Kerry.
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To put your life in danger from time to time ... breeds a saneness in dealing with day-to-day trivialities.

--Nevil Shute, Slide Rule

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Almost as predicted.

The delta-time function is working more or less correctly, but the depth of field musta been a little outta whack on the ol' FutureCam™.

As predicted, Kerry did come out on top and Dean didn't play too well, but margins -- whoo boy! 38% / 18%

The other thing the FutureCam™ didn't see was the 32% racked up by Edwards. My congratulation to those who were able to tune that in a little better than I.
quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

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