Must be a Tough Day to be Crying the "R" word...

[Gawain 0]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080430/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy;_ylt=AoYdCtRyuqB6NE98vdQkyxms0NUE

With all the literal psyching into a "recession"...which means there have been two-consecutive-quarters of contraction in the GDP...we haven't even had one yet.

Now, was the 1Q08 a roaring expansion? At 0.6%, certainly not. Consumer spending was up 1% and energy and food prices are clear issues that need to be monitored carefully.

Either way, it must be tough to be a liberal who's been crying "R" for a while...the doom and gloom is near...

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[kallend 1,651]

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080430/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy;_ylt=AoYdCtRyuqB6NE98vdQkyxms0NUE

With all the literal psyching into a "recession"...which means there have been two-consecutive-quarters of contraction in the GDP...we haven't even had one yet.

Now, was the 1Q08 a roaring expansion? At 0.6%, certainly not. Consumer spending was up 1% and energy and food prices are clear issues that need to be monitored carefully.

Either way, it must be tough to be a liberal who's been crying "R" for a while...the doom and gloom is near...

Must be very comforting for you to think that while you pay nearly $4/gallon for gas, watch house prices slumping, and growth rate
2 consecutive quarters of GDP contraction is not the only metric for identifying recessions. According to the economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession is defined as a "significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months."

By their methodology -- and they are the official arbiters of such things -- this is a recession.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[rushmc 18]

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080430/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy;_ylt=AoYdCtRyuqB6NE98vdQkyxms0NUE

With all the literal psyching into a "recession"...which means there have been two-consecutive-quarters of contraction in the GDP...we haven't even had one yet.

Now, was the 1Q08 a roaring expansion? At 0.6%, certainly not. Consumer spending was up 1% and energy and food prices are clear issues that need to be monitored carefully.

Either way, it must be tough to be a liberal who's been crying "R" for a while...the doom and gloom is near...

Must be very comforting for you to think that while you pay nearly $4/gallon for gas, watch house prices slumping, and growth rate
2 consecutive quarters of GDP contraction is not the only metric for identifying recessions. According to the economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession is defined as a "significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months."

By their methodology -- and they are the official arbiters of such things -- this is a recession.

Well there we have it folks.. Mr kallend has stated there is a ression and so it must be so. Why, cause he has appointed himself the officail arbiter of all of this, , ,,, I guess

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[sfc 0]

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080430/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy;_ylt=AoYdCtRyuqB6NE98vdQkyxms0NUE

With all the literal psyching into a "recession"...which means there have been two-consecutive-quarters of contraction in the GDP...we haven't even had one yet.

Now, was the 1Q08 a roaring expansion? At 0.6%, certainly not. Consumer spending was up 1% and energy and food prices are clear issues that need to be monitored carefully.

Either way, it must be tough to be a liberal who's been crying "R" for a while...the doom and gloom is near...

Must be very comforting for you to think that while you pay nearly $4/gallon for gas, watch house prices slumping, and growth rate
2 consecutive quarters of GDP contraction is not the only metric for identifying recessions. According to the economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession is defined as a "significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months."

By their methodology -- and they are the official arbiters of such things -- this is a recession.

Well there we have it folks.. Mr kallend has stated there is a ression and so it must be so. Why, cause he has appointed himself the officail arbiter of all of this, , ,,, I guess

So you are not paying close to $4 for gas? You would come over much better if you stated you own views.

I think we are in a recession, just look at the data.

What do you think, you are so focused on proving certain folks wrong that you can't present credible arguments.

[1969912 0]

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2 consecutive quarters of GDP contraction is not the only metric for identifying recessions. According to the economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession is defined as a "significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months."

By their methodology -- and they are the official arbiters of such things -- this is a recession.

The NBER hasn't determined that we're in a recession:


"The seven economists who sit on the bureau’s recession-dating committee began exchanging e-mail messages late last year about whether the economy was on the verge of a recession. But committee members said Friday that it remained too early to know.....

“Given (the NBER definition), the committee can’t possibly call a recession until it has been going on for a while,” said Christina D. Romer, an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley. “There is no way to know if the downturn will be sufficiently long-lasting until it has lasted for a while.”

The committee did not announce the end of the last recession — which came in November 2001 — until more than a year-and a half later. Robert J. Gordon, a Northwestern University economist on the committee, said any announcement about the start of a new recession was unlikely before the last few months of 2008 at the earliest."

(see: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/08/business/08recession.html?bl&ex=1205125200&en=bff38e35cdd49324&ei=5087%0A)
-----------


As you mentioned, the NBER are the (de facto) official arbiters of such things. We're not in a recession until they say we are/were. Right?

"Once we got to the point where twenty/something's needed a place on the corner that changed the oil in their cars we were doomed . . ."
-NickDG

[lawrocket 3]

"A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

Here's the whole cite, john.
By their methodology, this ain't a recession. At least it's not a "normally visible" recession. Perhaps it is abnormal.

They call a recession a "period of diminishing actiivity" versus a period of "diminished activity."

Finally, by their standards: "Q: Typically, how long after the beginning of a recession does the BCDC declare that a recession has started?

A: Anywhere from 6 to 18 months. We never consider forecasts. In general, the BCDC does not meet until it is reasonably clear that a downturn has occurred."

So, by their standards, THEY won't say a recession occurred.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[joedirt 0]

Great idea, lets stop quantifying them. Then we can just say we are... or we aren't in a recession, call it a gut feeling.

[billvon 2,435]

>Must be a Tough Day to be Crying the "R" word...

I suspect most republicans will suddenly find it much easier to cry that word in 9 months.

[rushmc 18]

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080430/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy;_ylt=AoYdCtRyuqB6NE98vdQkyxms0NUE

With all the literal psyching into a "recession"...which means there have been two-consecutive-quarters of contraction in the GDP...we haven't even had one yet.

Now, was the 1Q08 a roaring expansion? At 0.6%, certainly not. Consumer spending was up 1% and energy and food prices are clear issues that need to be monitored carefully.

Either way, it must be tough to be a liberal who's been crying "R" for a while...the doom and gloom is near...

Must be very comforting for you to think that while you pay nearly $4/gallon for gas, watch house prices slumping, and growth rate
2 consecutive quarters of GDP contraction is not the only metric for identifying recessions. According to the economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession is defined as a "significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months."

By their methodology -- and they are the official arbiters of such things -- this is a recession.

Well there we have it folks.. Mr kallend has stated there is a ression and so it must be so. Why, cause he has appointed himself the officail arbiter of all of this, , ,,, I guess

So you are not paying close to $4 for gas? You would come over much better if you stated you own views.

I think we are in a recession, just look at the data.

What do you think, you are so focused on proving certain folks wrong that you can't present credible arguments.

The left needs there to be ression for the upcoming elections. See the posts above of who make the deterimination and how.

Now, you prove there IS a ression since is seems to be so important to you that there is one.

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[kallend 1,651]

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080430/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy;_ylt=AoYdCtRyuqB6NE98vdQkyxms0NUE

With all the literal psyching into a "recession"...which means there have been two-consecutive-quarters of contraction in the GDP...we haven't even had one yet.

Now, was the 1Q08 a roaring expansion? At 0.6%, certainly not. Consumer spending was up 1% and energy and food prices are clear issues that need to be monitored carefully.

Either way, it must be tough to be a liberal who's been crying "R" for a while...the doom and gloom is near...

Must be very comforting for you to think that while you pay nearly $4/gallon for gas, watch house prices slumping, and growth rate
2 consecutive quarters of GDP contraction is not the only metric for identifying recessions. According to the economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession is defined as a "significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months."

By their methodology -- and they are the official arbiters of such things -- this is a recession.

Well there we have it folks.. Mr kallend has stated there is a ression and so it must be so. Why, cause he has appointed himself the officail arbiter of all of this, , ,,, I guess

So you are not paying close to $4 for gas? You would come over much better if you stated you own views.

I think we are in a recession, just look at the data.

What do you think, you are so focused on proving certain folks wrong that you can't present credible arguments.

The left needs there to be ression for the upcoming elections. See the posts above of who make the deterimination and how.

Now, you prove there IS a ression since is seems to be so important to you that there is one.

I have never seen a "ression" I liked.

Point being, 2 consecutive quarters of decline is NOT the determining factor, contrary to Gawain's original claim. NBER has yet to rule on the current situation.

However, I don't think ANY voters need the NBER, you, me, or GWB to tell them how they are faring under $4 gas, high food prices, the $US in the basement, homes losing value...

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[rushmc 18]

Thank you oh great (self appointed) arbiter

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[kallend 1,651]

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Thank you oh great (self appointed) arbiter

You're welcome, O Great (self appointed) Arbiter of Arbiters.

I suppose you DO need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Gawain 0]

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However, I don't think ANY voters need the NBER, you, me, or GWB to tell them how they are faring under $4 gas, high food prices, the $US in the basement, homes losing value...

I never presumed to tell anyone how they are faring. I did point out that despite the problematic components, consumer spending is up and the overall economy grew (a hair).

Crying recession long enough is only going to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's bound to happen because our economy does seem to cycle -- about every 6-8 years it seems.

If I start spouting that a plane is going to crash...sooner or later it's going to happen.

I place the current energy burden on the energy laws passed in 2005, 2007 and the weak dollar. Ethanol is a great idea, but not at the expense of the food supply.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[idrankwhat 0]

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consumer spending is up and the overall economy grew (a hair).

Consumer spending is up because everything costs more.

[Casurf1978 0]

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However, I don't think ANY voters need the NBER, you, me, or GWB to tell them how they are faring under $4 gas, high food prices, the $US in the basement, homes losing value...

I never presumed to tell anyone how they are faring. I did point out that despite the problematic components, consumer spending is up and the overall economy grew (a hair).

Crying recession long enough is only going to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's bound to happen because our economy does seem to cycle -- about every 6-8 years it seems.

If I start spouting that a plane is going to crash...sooner or later it's going to happen.

I place the current energy burden on the energy laws passed in 2005, 2007 and the weak dollar. Ethanol is a great idea, but not at the expense of the food supply.

Ask anyone with any knowledge about finances and they will tell you we are in a recession. Merryl Lynch's CEO stated this back in January, Buffet even said so even though we do not meet the technical definition of it. Look at wall street and you will see some of the smartest people in the finance world telling you that yes we are in a recession. Nothing like back in the mid 70s but yes we are in a recession.


http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/2008-03-03-buffett_N.htm

[lawrocket 3]

http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=2690015#2690015

This has been repeated over and over again for more than a year.

"The Bush Recession" and "Will be here in six months" and "We're already in a recession" has a comparable bit of political PR. It sounds an awful lot like, "The next six months will be crucial" and "We are winning this war" and "We cannot pull out now."

We've gotta wait another six months for there to be a recession, folks - at least under the standard rule of thumb.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[jcd11235 0]

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I place the current energy burden on the energy laws passed in 2005, 2007 and the weak dollar. Ethanol is a great idea, but not at the expense of the food supply.

I recall reading a while back about how Congress had passed legislation requiring corn to be used for a certain percentage (all?) ethanol production. I don't recall the source, however. If that is indeed the case, then that would also be a source of problems, since corn is not the most efficient crop to use for ethanol.

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[Channman 2]

> I have never seen a "ression" I liked.

Point being, 2 consecutive quarters of decline is NOT the determining factor, contrary to Gawain's original claim. NBER has yet to rule on the current situation.

However, I don't think ANY voters need the NBER, you, me, or GWB to tell them how they are faring under $4 gas, high food prices, the $US in the basement, homes losing value...

Well for starter, the US has gone through several recessions in the past and will have many to come in the future. Money is tight for many, not so much for me at this point but my wife and I are taking steps to minimize or debt when it comes to car payments.

Gas, for me at the moment is about 3.29 per gallon at our local Koger store. However 100LL at Hobby is a pain in the ass when you need some, costing several hundred dollars to make a four hour flight.

[lawrocket 3]

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I recall reading a while back about how Congress had passed legislation requiring corn to be used for a certain percentage (all?) ethanol production.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/article/20080501/NATION/462824208/0/METRO

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Members of Congress say they overreached by pushing ethanol on consumers and will move to roll back federal supports for it — the latest sure signal that Congress' appetite for corn-based ethanol has collapsed as food and gas prices have shot up.

House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer said Democrats will use the pending farm bill to reduce the subsidy, while Republicans are looking to go further, rolling back government rules passed just four months ago that require blending ethanol into gasoline.

"The view was to look to alternatives and try to become more dependent on the Midwest than the Middle East. I mean, that was the theory. Obviously, sometimes there are unforeseen or unintended consequences of actions," Mr. Hoyer, Maryland Democrat, told reporters yesterday.

I think that it is more complex than that.

But I would also like to note: things are so much easier when times are good. It's easy to go for biofuels and organics and green products when there is luxury.

Long-term solutions are the way. But politicans don't like long-term solutions because in the long term, they are not there anymore.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[Andrewwhyte 1]

This is a great example of why the government should not try to shape the economy. Capital has been allocated based on those rules. Now, to see them reversed so quickly indicates a higher risk premium is required for investment than previously thought. This change in perception has effects similar to an increased interest rate. So the FED lowers the interest rate to keep investment up, and congress undermines the consistency of the investment climate; nice.

[kelpdiver 2]

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“Given (the NBER definition), the committee can’t possibly call a recession until it has been going on for a while,” said Christina D. Romer, an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley. “There is no way to know if the downturn will be sufficiently long-lasting until it has lasted for a while.”

The people (and this year, voters) really aren't too concerned with the definition of a recession. They know when they are affected - lose their job, have their costs exceed their income, etc. It's the collective state of everyone that makes a 'recession.' And McCain will be doing his best to shift the subject to gay marriage, black pastors, terrorists, his health care solution. Even Iraq is a better topic for him than talking about the economy.

So the debate shifts to can a recession be created by telling everyone we're in one, or prevented by insisting that it doesn't count unless the GDP declines. I'm doubtful that the psychological impact is nearly as significant as the actual economic factors.

I have been hearing from multiple sources (or all repeating the same original source) that people will start saving more and consuming less as a result of this economic malaise (whether you call it a recession or not) and by the green movement, lead in particular by those in their 20s. But so far, they haven't provided reasons to believe this is actually true. People talk about less consumption and more savings all the time, rarely follow up on it.

[jcd11235 0]

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And McCain will be doing his best to shift the subject [from the economy] to … his health care solution.

Obama or Clinton (especially) would love to see him campaign on his health care plan.

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So the debate shifts to can a recession be created by telling everyone we're in one, or prevented by insisting that it doesn't count unless the GDP declines. I'm doubtful that the psychological impact is nearly as significant as the actual economic factors.

The thing about recessions is that they cannot be diagnosed until after they are underway. If a recession begins, it could be several months before it is acknowledged by economists. It is a descriptor used primarily in hindsight.

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[kelpdiver 2]

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And McCain will be doing his best to shift the subject [from the economy] to … his health care solution.

Obama or Clinton (especially) would love to see him campaign on his health care plan.

I don't think they would. His solutions are based on tax changes, to both the employers and employees, rather than revamping the health care system. Far less scary, though I'm sure many would still rather keep the status quo until it breaks completely.

[Casurf1978 0]

You make good points, but you have to agree that our economy is not in the best of shape at this moment in time and it will get worse before it gets better. I read the most ridiculous thing today from Mcain and Clinton:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/01/mccain/?iref=mpstoryview

Are they just trying to get votes? Sometimes I just wanna slap politicians around. Once again just thinking of a short-term solution w/o really looking at the implications this might have in the long-term.

[lawrocket 3]

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but you have to agree that our economy is not in the best of shape at this moment

I don't "have" to agree. However, I DO agree to that.

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and it will get worse before it gets better

I do not agree with that. That's been said for the last couple of years. It has gotten worse from a couple of years ago, but I am not convinced that it will continue to get worse. In fact, the stock market seems to be an indication that I am not alone in my thoughts.

I have been speculating that the economy and housing market will improve within the next few months - and putting some money where my mouth is.

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Are they just trying to get votes?

Yes.

My wife is hotter than your wife.