kallend 1,623
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kallend 1,623
QuoteThere is no consistent correlation between gun ownership levels and gun crime levels.
Another peer-reviewed study:
Firearm availability and homicide: A review of the literature
Lisa M. Hepburn and David Hemenway,
Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA
Received 1 September 2002; Revised 1 April 2003; accepted 30 June 2003. Available online 18 September 2003.
Abstract
This article reviews the most commonly cited, representative, empirical studies in the peer-reviewed literature that directly investigate the association of gun availability and homicide victimization. Individual-level studies (n=4) are reviewed that investigate the risks and benefits of owning a personal or household firearm. The research suggests that households with firearms are at higher risk for homicide, and there is no net beneficial effect of firearm ownership. No longitudinal cohort study seems to have investigated the association between a gun in the home and homicide. Two groups of ecological studies are reviewed, those comparing multiple countries and those focused solely on the United States. Results from the cross-sectional international studies (n=7) typically show that in high-income countries with more firearms, both men and women are at higher risk for homicide, particularly firearm homicide. Time series (n=10) and cross-sectional studies (n=9) of U.S. cities, states, and regions and for the United States as a whole, generally find a statistically significant gun prevalence–homicide association. None of the studies prove causation, but the available evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that increased gun prevalence increases the homicide rate.
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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
mnealtx 0
Quote
Suggest you go to the FBI UCR and take a look at violent crime rates across the various states, and compare with the prevalence of gun ownership.
Where'd you get the ownership information from? Data shows that there is overwhelmingly more crime in the metropolitan areas, which tend to have LOWER rates of firearms ownership than rural areas (which enjoy a MUCH lower rate of crime). I'm suspecting that you're tying ownership rates to states that support right-to-carry laws.
In fact, according to the 2006 UCR, you have to go all the way to #39 (ranked by increasing violent crime rate) before you find a state that does not issue some sort of concealed carry license. That state is Illinois, with a violent crime rate of 541.6/100k.
The grand champion of the crime rate lottery is "Disarmed DC", with a rate of 1508.4/100k.
In point of fact, Florida adopted right-to-carry laws in 1987. Between 1987 and 1996, the following changes happened.
Homicide rate
Florida -36%
National -0.4%
Firearm homicide rate
Florida -37%
National +15%
Handgun homicide rate
Florida -41%
National +24%
The data proves you wrong.
Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706
kallend 1,623
QuoteQuote
Suggest you go to the FBI UCR and take a look at violent crime rates across the various states, and compare with the prevalence of gun ownership.
Where'd you get the ownership information from? Data shows that there is overwhelmingly more crime in the metropolitan areas, which tend to have LOWER rates of firearms ownership than rural areas (which enjoy a MUCH lower rate of crime). I'm suspecting that you're tying ownership rates to states that support right-to-carry laws.
In fact, according to the 2006 UCR, you have to go all the way to #39 (ranked by increasing violent crime rate) before you find a state that does not issue some sort of concealed carry license. That state is Illinois, with a violent crime rate of 541.6/100k.
The grand champion of the crime rate lottery is "Disarmed DC", with a rate of 1508.4/100k.
In point of fact, Florida adopted right-to-carry laws in 1987. Between 1987 and 1996, the following changes happened.
Homicide rate
Florida -36%
National -0.4%
Firearm homicide rate
Florida -37%
National +15%
Handgun homicide rate
Florida -41%
National +24%
The data proves you wrong.
"Data" is not the plural of "anecdote". Try again.
BTW I attach a scatter graph of gun homicide rate (Source, US DoJ) vs % of households with guns (source BRFSS 2001) for the 50 states. Also shown is the least squares "best" fit line to the data.
...
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
mnealtx 0
Quote"Data" is not the plural of "anecdote". Try again.
I've provided DATA from the UCR - where's yours?
DATA from the UCR shows that, ranking by increasing crime rate/100k, you have to go all the way down to (correction: 20th place (Wisconsin)) to find a state that bans concealed carry. The only other state to do that, Illinois, is #39.
The highest crime rate is Washington DC, with an amazing rate of 1508.4/100k. The DATA from the UCR proves you wrong.
Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706
kallend 1,623
Quote
I don't see WI or IL in your post anywhere. You reported one state, Florida. That's not data, that's cherry picking
Heres homicide rate vs % households with guns clustered by decile to take out some of the scatter.
Still want to argue that gun ownership and homicides aren't related?...
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
kallend 1,623
Here are the top states for home invasions. Notice anything - like they are stes where gun ownership is prevalent?
#1 North Carolina: 1.165 per 100 people
#2 Arkansas: 1.083 per 100 people
#3 New Mexico: 1.033 per 100 people
#4 South Carolina: 1.021 per 100 people
#5 Tennessee: 1.01 per 100 people
#6 Louisiana: 1.003 per 100 people
#7 Oklahoma: 0.993 per 100 people
#8 Alabama: 0.98 per 100 people
#9 Washington: 0.964 per 100 people
#10 Texas: 0.963 per 100 people
#11 Nevada: 0.958 per 100 people
#12 Arizona: 0.958 per 100 people
#13 Mississippi: 0.947 per 100 people
#14 Florida: 0.935 per 100 people
#15 Georgia: 0.915 per 100 people
(Source - DoJ Bureau of Justice Statistics)
Seems that having a firearm in the home DOESN'T deter burglars at all. I suspect it just makes it more likely that the burglar will be armed.
Those poor disarmed people in IL and Wl come in at #32 and #45 respectively.
#1 North Carolina: 1.165 per 100 people
#2 Arkansas: 1.083 per 100 people
#3 New Mexico: 1.033 per 100 people
#4 South Carolina: 1.021 per 100 people
#5 Tennessee: 1.01 per 100 people
#6 Louisiana: 1.003 per 100 people
#7 Oklahoma: 0.993 per 100 people
#8 Alabama: 0.98 per 100 people
#9 Washington: 0.964 per 100 people
#10 Texas: 0.963 per 100 people
#11 Nevada: 0.958 per 100 people
#12 Arizona: 0.958 per 100 people
#13 Mississippi: 0.947 per 100 people
#14 Florida: 0.935 per 100 people
#15 Georgia: 0.915 per 100 people
(Source - DoJ Bureau of Justice Statistics)
Seems that having a firearm in the home DOESN'T deter burglars at all. I suspect it just makes it more likely that the burglar will be armed.
Those poor disarmed people in IL and Wl come in at #32 and #45 respectively.
...
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
mnealtx 0
QuoteI don't see WI or IL in your post anywhere. You reported one state, Florida. That's not data, that's cherry picking
Funny, you quoted it in your post above:
"In fact, according to the 2006 UCR, you have to go all the way to #39 (ranked by increasing violent crime rate) before you find a state that does not issue some sort of concealed carry license. That state is Illinois, with a violent crime rate of 541.6/100k.
The grand champion of the crime rate lottery is "Disarmed DC", with a rate of 1508.4/100k. "
I overlooked Wisconsin in my original post, and corrected it in my reply above.
Your original post:
QuoteSuggest you go to the FBI UCR and take a look at violent crime rates across the various states, and compare with the prevalence of gun ownership.
Now, when you're proven wrong, you want to change the criteria to gun homicides? Talk about cherry-picking!!
I went to the CDC's BRFSS page but there's no information listed for firearms, other than a reference to 2% of the deaths (NOT homicides as you assert) were due to firearms....in 1990.
Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706
Quote
Still want to argue that gun ownership and homicides aren't related?
I generally avoid debating you, mostly because I hate losing. In this case though, you still have a chicken-egg hurdle to get over.
Blues,
Dave
"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)
(drink Mountain Dew)
If gun ownership is so bad, anyone who truly belives that should be willing to disarm themselves and post signs at their home in order to influence others.
mnealtx 0
Quote
Here are the top states for home invasions. Notice anything - like they are stes where gun ownership is prevalent?
Seems that having a firearm in the home DOESN'T deter burglars at all. I suspect it just makes it more likely that the burglar will be armed.
Now the criteria is home invasion? Cherry picking your data until you find a dataset that lets you "win", Professor?
Regardless, you seem to be wrong again.
Some research will (I recommend guncite.com - lots of information from both sides of the issue, there) lead you to Wright and Rossi's 1986 interviews of 1800 prisoners across 10 states that show that criminals AVOID situations where they know the victims may be armed.
Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706
Lefty 0
QuoteIf gun ownership is so bad, anyone who truly belives that should be willing to disarm themselves and post signs at their home in order to influence others.
Hehe, good idea.
Provoking a reaction isn't the same thing as saying something meaningful.
-Calvin
-Calvin
mnealtx 0
QuoteQuoteIf gun ownership is so bad, anyone who truly belives that should be willing to disarm themselves and post signs at their home in order to influence others.
Hehe, good idea.
Gotta love Oleg Volk! Check out the 2nd pic from the top....
Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706
Lindsey 0
What was the little town in Georgia, years ago, that passed a law saying that every home owner must own a gun...or something of that nature. It wasn't enforced, but gun ownership did increase dramatically. People's homes virtually ceased to be broken into. Maybe somebody remembers this better than I do. I'll try to find out the details better.
linz
linz
--
A conservative is just a liberal who's been mugged. A liberal is just a conservative who's been to jail
A conservative is just a liberal who's been mugged. A liberal is just a conservative who's been to jail
mnealtx 0
That was Kennesaw.
Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706
ryoder 1,384
QuoteThat was Kennesaw.
In response to the jackasses in the town council of Morton Grove IL, who banned the ownership of handguns, but exempted themselves.
QuoteThe people didn't have a chance. The council voted the handgun ban and that-was-that -- except, not quite for everyone. The rumor quickly surfaced that, within a few days, the wife of the mayor was deputized so that she could legally possess a handgun under the exemption provided for law enforcement officers. Of course, the members of the council were themselves statutorily exempt from the ban, further fueling the sense of outrage and evoking memories of how mass murder and genocide in Nazi Germany and Communist Russia were facilitated by laws banning firearms by all except card carrying party members.
http://www.davekopel.com/2A/OthWr/KuklaResponse.htm
"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.
QuoteQuoteQuoteIf gun ownership is so bad, anyone who truly belives that should be willing to disarm themselves and post signs at their home in order to influence others.
Hehe, good idea.
Gotta love Oleg Volk! Check out the 2nd pic from the top....
Maybe one of our community will reproduce that wonderful poster on the left, and provide it free of charge to members who want firearms controlled and eradicated.
You know, as a peace offering at this time of year.
kallend 1,623
Quote
Regardless, you seem to be wrong again.
Some research will (I recommend guncite.com - lots of information from both sides of the issue, there) lead you to Wright and Rossi's 1986 interviews of 1800 prisoners across 10 states that show that criminals AVOID situations where they know the victims may be armed.
Oh, I thought the justification for keeping an unsecured gun around the house was for protection against home invasion. So what is the reason NOW?
You're saying the US Dept of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics is wrong and guncite.com is correct?
...
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
kallend 1,623
QuoteQuote
Still want to argue that gun ownership and homicides aren't related?
I generally avoid debating you, mostly because I hate losing. In this case though, you still have a chicken-egg hurdle to get over.
Blues,
Dave
Well, we know that guns had to exist before the first gun homicide, so there's no dispute over which came first in this case.
...
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
mnealtx 0
QuoteOh, I thought the justification for keeping an unsecured gun around the house was for protection against home invasion. So what is the reason NOW?
You've gone from violent crime, to homicide, to home invasion - I was going to ask you the same question!
QuoteYou're saying the US Dept of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics is wrong and guncite.com is correct?
Nope...I'm saying your assumption is wrong.
Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706
kallend 1,623
QuoteWhat was the little town in Georgia, years ago, that passed a law saying that every home owner must own a gun...or something of that nature. It wasn't enforced, but gun ownership did increase dramatically. People's homes virtually ceased to be broken into. Maybe somebody remembers this better than I do. I'll try to find out the details better.
linz
The plural of "anecdote" is NOT "data".
...
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
kallend 1,623
QuoteQuoteOh, I thought the justification for keeping an unsecured gun around the house was for protection against home invasion. So what is the reason NOW?
You've gone from violent crime, to homicide, to home invasion - I was going to ask you the same question!QuoteYou're saying the US Dept of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics is wrong and guncite.com is correct?
Nope...I'm saying your assumption is wrong.
I haven't made an assumption - I've just posted information from an impeccable source showing a clear correlation between homicides and gun ownership. Others have written in detail about this clear correlation in peer reviewed journals that I have cited.
More guns --> more homicides. The DATA are clear. Works on the state level, and works on the national level.
More guns -|-> fewer home invasions. The leading states for home invasions also have above average percentages of gun owning households.
...
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
kallend 1,623
Quote
The grand champion of the crime rate lottery is "Disarmed DC", with a rate of 1508.4/100k. "
DC is NOT a state. Compare apples with apples, not prunes.
"If you call a tail a "leg", how many legs does a dog have?" Abraham Lincoln.
...
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
QuoteQuoteQuote
Still want to argue that gun ownership and homicides aren't related?
I generally avoid debating you, mostly because I hate losing. In this case though, you still have a chicken-egg hurdle to get over.
Blues,
Dave
Well, we know that guns had to exist before the first gun homicide, so there's no dispute over which came first in this case.
Speaking of anecdotes...
It stands to reason that the population residing in a high crime area would be more likely to arm themselves. While it is likely a trade-off to some extent, I suspect that increased crime leads to increased (legal) gun ownership more than increased (legal) gun ownership leads to increased crime. Blues,
Dave
"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)
(drink Mountain Dew)
WRONG WRONG wrong. From the previously referenced, peer reviewed, study:
States within the highest quartile of firearm prevalence had firearm homicide rates 114% higher than states within the lowest quartile of firearm prevalence. Overall homicide rates were 60% higher.
The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.
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