10 things non-gun people should know about Concealed Weapons permit holders.

[SkyDekker 1,152]

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CONVICTION rate comparison between CHL and non-CHL holders for Texas

[NCclimber 0]

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CONVICTION rate comparison between CHL and non-CHL holders for Texas

What does that have to do with:
"I think the professor is right on the money when it comes to the data and the conclusions you can draw from it."

[kallend 1,679]

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In other words - you need to compare CCW holders to a group that would be near impossible establish.

Bullshit! Anyone who has a security clearance has gone through a criminal background check, and I'm sure that many of them aren't CCW holders.

How would you go about collecting the data on everyone who has a security clearance and their subsequent crime rate?

Is there an accessable database that contains such information?

I think the onus for doing that is on the person who wishes to prove his point about CCW carriers.

The fact that doing it right is difficult is not an excuse for doing it wrong and then claiming the results have meaning.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[JohnRich 4]

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Thanks for the information about the crime rate among CCW holders... I haven't been able to find anything on line, in a short period of time that I've looked, that indicates what the that rate might be. It would be interesting to know. Do you have a source?

Here's one for Texas: NCPA Alanysis

Concealed carry licensees had arrest rates far lower than the general population for every category of crime. For instance:

* Licensees were 5.7 times less likely to be arrested for violent offenses than the general public - 127 per 100,000 population versus 730 per 100,000.

* Licensees were 14 times less likely to be arrested for nonviolent offenses than the general public - 386 per 100,000 population versus 5,212 per 100,000.

* Further, the general public is 1.4 times more likely to be arrested for murder than licensees, and no licensee had been arrested for negligent manslaughter.

More from the Texas Dept. of Public Safety:
Conviction Rates for Concealed Handgun License Holders (pdf)

Argue statistics until you're blue in the face. But here's the bottom line:

Concealed Handgun Licensees are not trouble-makers. All but a handful of states now allow concealed carry by the public. If these folks were causing a lot of problems running around with their guns, we wouldn't be in this status of widespread usage that we have today. No state has seen fit to revoke their concealed handgun programs, because it just doesn't cause any problems.

[SkyDekker 1,152]

That many different conclusions can be drawn from the presented data. Conclusions ranging from those in favour of CCW holders and those against it.

In short, the data doesn't answer anything really, other that there is a lower conviction rate as opposed to the population in general.

(Keep in mind that lower conviction rate does not necessarily mean a lower crime commission rate)

[NCclimber 0]

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That many different conclusions can be drawn from the presented data. Conclusions ranging from those in favour of CCW holders and those against it.

In short, the data doesn't answer anything really, other that there is a lower conviction rate as opposed to the population in general.

(Keep in mind that lower conviction rate does not necessarily mean a lower crime commission rate)

We all see what we want to see.

[SkyDekker 1,152]

Now that is a very valid point.....and the proof is in the pudding

[NCclimber 0]

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In other words - you need to compare CCW holders to a group that would be near impossible establish.

Bullshit! Anyone who has a security clearance has gone through a criminal background check, and I'm sure that many of them aren't CCW holders.

How would you go about collecting the data on everyone who has a security clearance and their subsequent crime rate?

Is there an accessable database that contains such information?

I think the onus for doing that is on the person who wishes to prove his point about CCW carriers.

The fact that doing it right is difficult

So would it be difficult or is that claim "bullshit"?

You seem intent on dismissing existing comparisons, which were relevant to points raised in various threads, over the last few days,... instead claiming the only valid ones must meet your parameters... which would be very difficult to meet.

[kallend 1,679]

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In other words - you need to compare CCW holders to a group that would be near impossible establish.

Bullshit! Anyone who has a security clearance has gone through a criminal background check, and I'm sure that many of them aren't CCW holders.

How would you go about collecting the data on everyone who has a security clearance and their subsequent crime rate?

Is there an accessable database that contains such information?

I think the onus for doing that is on the person who wishes to prove his point about CCW carriers.

The fact that doing it right is difficult

So would it be difficult or is that claim "bullshit"?

You seem intent on dismissing existing comparisons, which were relevant to points raised in various threads, over the last few days,... instead claiming the only valid ones must meet your parameters... which would be very difficult to meet.

I have stated my position very clearly in previous posts.

If a thing is worth doing, it's worth doing properly.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Nightingale 0]

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It seems like the good professor is saying you need to find a control group that undergoes the same background checks as CCW holders, but doesn't contain any CCW holders.

In other words - you need to compare CCW holders to a group that would be near impossible establish.

I went through a similar (actually more extensive) background check for bar admission, so I guess you could compare CCW holders to lawyers. In most states (if not all), you have to be found of "sound moral character" or something similar for admission to practice law.

[normiss 643]

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"sound moral character" or something similar for admission to practice law.

as if that were even possible...

[NCclimber 0]

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It seems like the good professor is saying you need to find a control group that undergoes the same background checks as CCW holders, but doesn't contain any CCW holders.

In other words - you need to compare CCW holders to a group that would be near impossible establish.

I went through a similar (actually more extensive) background check for bar admission, so I guess you could compare CCW holders to lawyers. In most states (if not all), you have to be found of "sound moral character" or something similar for admission to practice law.

Nice response.

On point and civil.
Are you sure you're in the right room?

[1969912 0]

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I think the professor is right on the money when it comes to the data and the conclusions you can draw from it.

There is a significant increase in the stats for CCW permit holders, which could be attributable to a number of factors ranging from, more CCW holders turning into criminals, to a weakening of the selections process.

What initiated looking at these numbers was someone's claim that the crime rate of CCW holders was similar to that of law enforcement officers (I doubt it's true). That has not been examined yet. The first step is to gather and analyze data on CCW holders. That is still happening. Mnealtx has made adjustments to his analysis based on reasonable comments from others. For those looking for the truth about the character of CCW holders, please keep up the good comments. For those who just don't like what they're seeing, either close your eyes or look at another thread. Don't try to destroy this one.


I think it can be concluded that the conviction rate of CCW holders (CCW convicted/100,000 CCW total) as a group is lower than that of non-CCW holders (NoCCW/100,000 NoCCW). That's sufficient to support a claim that CCW holders are a law-abiding less "criminal" group of people than the general population. Is the CCW group preselected? Of course. If the only thing the data shows is that the screening of CCW applicants works, that's fine. No other claims have been made.
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Regarding the upward trend in conviction rates for CCW holders:

1) That's not what is being examined by mnealtx, et. al. It might be worth looking into later, but it doesn't apply to what is currently being examined. Making an issue of it now would seem to be simply an effort to throw a monkey wrench into things.

2) You Said: "There is a significant increase in the stats for CCW permit holders, which could be attributable to a number of factors ranging from, more CCW holders turning into criminals, to a weakening of the selections process." If you really believe that the increase is attributable to one or both of the factors you claim, go ahead and dig up the statistics to prove it. "We" made some claims and argued some points, and then took the effort to substantiate those claims. Anyone else making claims is free to do the same thing.
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Regarding conclusions and claims, here are a few statements that have been made which seem to be refuted by the statistics. Note that some or all of the statements only imply that the author has made a claim, so it's likely that the author(s) will respond with an assertion that they didn't make a claim. In response to that I would ask why, considering the context of the discussion, did you say it then? What did you really mean? So if anyone I quote below thinks that I'm making an improper inference regarding their statement, please answer those two questions first.


IanHarrop said: "So all CCW holders are of good character... except the ones that lie to get the permit. I can buy that..."
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Clownburner said: "Yep, all lawful CCW holders are of demonstrably good character."

Billvon responded: "Neither one is all that surprising a statement. Unfortunately, there is a percentage of both law abiding people and law abiding CCW holders who become criminals."
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"Once we got to the point where twenty/something's needed a place on the corner that changed the oil in their cars we were doomed . . ."
-NickDG

[NCclimber 0]

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Regarding the upward trend in conviction rates for CCW holders:

1) That's not what is being examined by mnealtx, et. al. It might be worth looking into later, but it doesn't apply to what is currently being examined. Making an issue of it now would seem to be simply an effort to throw a monkey wrench into things.

2) You Said: "There is a significant increase in the stats for CCW permit holders, which could be attributable to a number of factors ranging from, more CCW holders turning into criminals, to a weakening of the selections process." If you really believe that the increase is attributable to one or both of the factors you claim, go ahead and dig up the statistics to prove it. "We" made some claims and argued some points, and then took the effort to substantiate those claims. Anyone else making claims is free to do the same thing.
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And don't forget the posted conviction rates of CCW holders was 1/100th of that for the general population.

[kelpdiver 2]

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Bullshit! Anyone who has a security clearance has gone through a criminal background check, and I'm sure that many of them aren't CCW holders.

In most states, more is required than a mere background check (which is done for every purchase from an FFL anyway). The applicant is making a commitment in time (classes, qualifying), money (license fees over $100 typically) and in practice.

You won't find an equilivent control group.

[kallend 1,679]

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Bullshit! Anyone who has a security clearance has gone through a criminal background check, and I'm sure that many of them aren't CCW holders.

In most states, more is required than a mere background check (which is done for every purchase from an FFL anyway). The applicant is making a commitment in time (classes, qualifying), money (license fees over $100 typically) and in practice.

You won't find an equilivent control group.

Are you claiming that weapons training makes people more law abiding? That paying $100 for something makes people more law abiding? What evidence do you have for that claim?

OTOH it's a fact that people with criminal records are more likely to commit crimes than those without.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kelpdiver 2]

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Bullshit! Anyone who has a security clearance has gone through a criminal background check, and I'm sure that many of them aren't CCW holders.

In most states, more is required than a mere background check (which is done for every purchase from an FFL anyway). The applicant is making a commitment in time (classes, qualifying), money (license fees over $100 typically) and in practice.

You won't find an equilivent control group.

Are you claiming that weapons training makes people more law abiding? That paying $100 for something makes people more law abiding? What evidence do you have for that claim?

OTOH it's highly likely that someone with a criminal record is LESS law abiding than someone without.

No, I'm claiming that people who make a commitment to something tend to avoid actions that would made that effort a waste.

[1969912 0]

http://www.criticalthinking.org/courses/onlinecourses.cfm

"Once we got to the point where twenty/something's needed a place on the corner that changed the oil in their cars we were doomed . . ."
-NickDG

[mnealtx 0]

Doc - you *KNOW* I'm going to call these posts back to your attention, the next time you use crime rates to make one of your comparisons between pro/anti concealed carry states, right?

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[kallend 1,679]

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Doc - you *KNOW* I'm going to call these posts back to your attention, the next time you use crime rates to make one of your comparisons between pro/anti concealed carry states, right?

Be my guest
But you'll need to explain why your methodology is correct for whatever particular comparison is being made.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[mnealtx 0]

I'm not a statistician (obviously), so can you explain the difference between the two scenarios? I don't see where I've made a mistake showing the difference in conviction rates between a group as a whole, and a subset of that same group.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[kallend 1,679]

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I'm not a statistician (obviously), so can you explain the difference between the two scenarios? I don't see where I've made a mistake showing the difference in conviction rates between a group as a whole, and a subset of that same group.

You haven't made a mistake. It's just that the comparison is meaningless when you take a set of people from whom all known criminals have been excluded at the outset, and then say they are more law abiding than a group that contains all the known criminals. It really doesn't matter if its CCW holders or left handed gynecologists. Any subset of the population from whom criminals are excluded is going to commit fewer crimes.

What your numbers do appear to show is that criminal background checks seem fairly effective at preventing known criminals from getting permits. Which is good.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[mnealtx 0]

Ok - I believe I understand the point you're making. Thanks for the explanation - it didn't "click" for me, before.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[kallend 1,679]

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Ok - I believe I understand the point you're making. Thanks for the explanation - it didn't "click" for me, before.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[tbrown 26]

Sounds remarkably similar, in many ways, to citizens who might be spotted carrying a parachute through an airport.

A good friend of ours up near Stockton is a lady realtor who often shows houses by herself in out ot the way locations. She also has a permit to carry and it makes perfect sense to us, though it apparently scared off a new jogging partner who freaked out about it when she asked about the bulge in her sweats one morning. (One would think any woman jogging that early in the morning might welcome running with an armed partner).

Your humble servant.....Professor Gravity !