Probability Risk of Skydiving vs. Driving a Car

[Hazarrd 1]

On a Statistics exam I had today there was a question regarding skydiving.

Given that the USPA reported 33 deaths from skydiving in 2002 the probability of death from skydiving is about 1.163 per 100,000 jumps. The rate of fatal car crashes in the United States is about 4.8 per 100,000,000 miles driven on 2-lane rural roads.

We first calculate the risk of dying from skydiving on any given jump:

1.163 / 100,000 = .00001163

We next find the probability of dying in car accident.

4.8 / 100,000,000 = .000000048

Finally, we determine how many miles one would have to drive to have the same risk of death as one skydiving jump.

.00001163 / .000000048 = 242.25 miles

I got the question all right, so that's cool. This does not take into account unreported skydiving deaths (obviously). Anyways, I thought it was somewhat interesting. Hope this hasn't been posted before.

.-.

[Cudlo 0]

Hrm... any reason they only concentrated on 2 lane rural roads? I'd be interested to see that equation worked out for any automobile related deaths.

_________________________________________
"People demand freedom of speech to make up for the freedom of thought which they avoid." - Kierkegaard

[orbitjunkie 0]

Interesting...but consider you drive 15,000 miles a year so thats even if ya make 60 or so jumps a year..you make 100 jumps your upping the odds to almostdouble your chances of getting whacked in a car

[kallend 1,623]

Quote

On a Statistics exam I had today there was a question regarding skydiving.

Given that the USPA reported 33 deaths from skydiving in 2002 the probability of death from skydiving is about 1.163 per 100,000 jumps. The rate of fatal car crashes in the United States is about 4.8 per 100,000,000 miles driven on 2-lane rural roads.

Well the highlighted stuff says a lot.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[elfanie 0]

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Well the highlighted stuff says a lot.

Are you saying there are more or less accidents on 2-lane rural roads than freeways?

--------------------------------------------
Elfanie
My Skydiving Page
Fly Safe - Soft Landings

[billvon 2,400]

>Are you saying there are more or less accidents on 2-lane rural roads
>than freeways?

There are a lot more accidents _per_mile_ on small 2-lane rural roads. Fewer overall since fewer people use them (since they're rural and small.)

[benny 0]

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Finally, we determine how many miles one would have to drive to have the same risk of death as one skydiving jump.

.00001163 / .000000048 = 242.25 miles

All I know is a two mile fall is a hell of a lot more more fun than a 242.25 mile drive

Never go to a DZ strip show.

[kallend 1,623]

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>Are you saying there are more or less accidents on 2-lane rural roads
>than freeways?

There are a lot more accidents _per_mile_ on small 2-lane rural roads. Fewer overall since fewer people use them (since they're rural and small.)

For 1995 - 2000 the OVERALL highway fatality rate, rural + urban, was approx. 0.7 per 100M miles driven.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Blahr 0]

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All I know is a two mile fall is a hell of a lot more more fun than a 242.25 mile drive

You summed it up for me right there buddy

So a jump is more risky, its a hell of a lot more satisfying too. Driving 242 miles sucks ass.

Incidentally, its 100 miles from my house to the DZ and back (round trip) so 2 weekends of traveling to and from the DZ is roughly as risky as one jump.

[benny 0]

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All I know is a two mile fall is a hell of a lot more more fun than a 242.25 mile drive

You summed it up for me right there buddy

So a jump is more risky, its a hell of a lot more satisfying too. Driving 242 miles sucks ass.

Incidentally, its 100 miles from my house to the DZ and back (round trip) so 2 weekends of traveling to and from the DZ is roughly as risky as one jump.

My round trip is actually just about 242 exact. Freaky...

Never go to a DZ strip show.

[bluelip 0]

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Interesting...but consider you drive 15,000 miles a year so thats even if ya make 60 or so jumps a year..you make 100 jumps your upping the odds to almostdouble your chances of getting whacked in a car

Oh man.... Time for bowling.... I have been in 2 accidents within the last 6 months....

Glad these are only stats.

/*
Mike Coles 'bluelip'
*/

[Hazarrd 1]

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Well the highlighted stuff says a lot.

[orbitjunkie 0]

I heard that benny

[orbitjunkie 0]

Dear Benny
yeah freaky..pretty much..your gonna die..sorry

[sputnik 0]

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For 1995 - 2000 the OVERALL highway fatality rate, rural + urban, was approx. 0.7 per 100M miles driven.

That means, you can go 1.661,4 miles to have the same risk. right?

_________________________________________

Life's NOT a journey!

[sdgregory 0]

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My round trip is actually just about 242 exact. Freaky...

Hey benny,


This only applies if you are driving 2-lane rural roads..

[benny 0]

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My round trip is actually just about 242 exact. Freaky...

Hey benny,


This only applies if you are driving 2-lane rural roads..

OK, I guess no freak voodoo statistics stuff applies, I've only got about 50 miles of two-lane roads on my DZ trips. So I guess my jumping is statistically still more likely to kill me, but have you seen the way I drive?

Never go to a DZ strip show.

[Ron 7]

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The rate of fatal car crashes in the United States is about 4.8 per 100,000,000 miles driven on 2-lane rural roads.

To get the right stats...you would have to use all roads or just jumps from a Cessna.

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Given that the USPA reported 33 deaths from skydiving in 2002 the probability of death from skydiving is about 1.163 per 100,000 jumps

And where did you get the 1.163 per 1,000 jumps?

"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334

[elfanie 0]

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The rate of fatal car crashes in the United States is about 4.8 per 100,000,000 miles driven on 2-lane rural roads.

To get the right stats...you would have to use all roads or just jumps from a Cessna.

I don't know how many billions of miles are driven each year...
but I do know that in 1998 1,170,694 people died from car accidents.

--------------------------------------------
Elfanie
My Skydiving Page
Fly Safe - Soft Landings

[zahiv 0]

[kallend 1,623]

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Quote

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The rate of fatal car crashes in the United States is about 4.8 per 100,000,000 miles driven on 2-lane rural roads.

To get the right stats...you would have to use all roads or just jumps from a Cessna.

I don't know how many billions of miles are driven each year...
but I do know that in 1998 1,170,694 people died from car accidents.

Where? Not in the USA.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kallend 1,623]

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Well the highlighted stuff says a lot.

I think someone already said it, but I looked up other stats, and 2 lane rural roads have the highest percentage of fatal car crashes. So I think this is probably the best statistic to use.

[elfanie 0]

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I don't know how many billions of miles are driven each year...
but I do know that in 1998 1,170,694 people died from car accidents.

Where? Not in the USA.

That's worldwide...

--------------------------------------------
Elfanie
My Skydiving Page
Fly Safe - Soft Landings

[Guest]

Good post, good sources...

But statistics are statistics, they can always be morphed to whatever point one is trying to prove depending on what sources one uses...

Let's just forget about that stats and jump more!

[llkenziell 0]

Do you think it would make a difference if one drove these miles in one solid time frame, or spaced it out?

"Living like fallen angels who lost their halos" - Unknown Prophets

-Love Life-