pccoder 0 #1 January 5, 2005 I am curious if anyone has any data regarding the frequency in which one jumps to the fatalities that have occured over the past few years. i.e. Is a more experienced jumper who seldomly makes it to the DZ more or less likely than an experienced jumper who is doing 10-20+ jumps a week? Arguements could be made either way, but I am really wondering if anyone has any actual substantial data (experience and professional opinion are acceptable if you have been doing this for a long time) to share. PcCoder.net Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bodypilot1 0 #2 January 5, 2005 Quote Is a more experienced jumper who seldomly makes it to the DZ more or less likely than an experienced jumper who is doing 10-20+ jumps a week? Uncurrent is uncurrent, regardless of the experience the jumper has. The person that does 10-20+ jumps a week, and DOES NOT practice emergency procedures, can still be uncurrent. I have ask a very experienced and current freeflyer once to show me how they do their cutaway procedure, and twice he pulled his reserve handle before his cutaway handle, then I corrected his mistake. One should ALWAYS practice staying current with all aspects of the sport to remain safe. Edwww.WestCoastWingsuits.com www.PrecisionSkydiving.com Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hookitt 0 #3 January 6, 2005 QuoteI have asked a very experienced and current freeflyer once to show me how they do their cutaway procedure, and twice he pulled his reserve handle before his cutaway handle, then I corrected his mistake. That's certainly frightening, and I agree with the following QuoteThe person that does 10-20+ jumps a week, and DOES NOT practice emergency procedures, can still be uncurrent. I know of 2 instances where a person fired the reserve before cutting away from a malfunction. Each time the person had plenty of altitude, and fired the reserve, realized what what he did and cutaway. That is most definately the wrong order to do things in so... QuoteOne should ALWAYS practice staying current with all aspects of the sport to remain safe. My grammar sometimes resembles that of magnetic refrigerator poetry... Ghetto Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pccoder 0 #4 January 6, 2005 I'm not sure that directly answered my question. I guess I asked the question because there are people with low jump numbers < 100 and higher jump numbers > 1000 who appear to be staying relatively current; however still crashing and burning, or being complacent and doing the wrong thing, etc. What is it that is keeping you people with 1000's of jumps (Ed) safe in this sport for so long? I know of a guy at my local DZ who has been doing this for years, done commercials, high quality photographs (including the picture of his girlfriend and another jumper at my DZ falling out of the helicopter in one of last year's 'Parachutist' mags), around 11,000 jumps, tandem master, instructor, all the ratings, etc. has only had a few cutaways in that time and still is alive and kicking. What is the secret that is keeping these people from dying? Sometimes I wonder if you do this long enough...is it inevitable that something tragic will happen? ....however; if that is true, then why are there so many who continue to jump well into the thousands or ten thousands? PcCoder.net Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
skytash 0 #5 January 6, 2005 I don't know about fatalities per se, but I remember being hearing while I was a student that accidents are most likely to happen to people between 200 and 500 jumps. The reason given was that at 200 jumps you feel like you know everything and by the time you reach 500 jumps you realise you don't and are lucky not to have had an accident. I have not stats to back this up and it may be that it is complete claptrap, but the reasoning does make sense to me from my own experiences. tashDon't ever save anything for a special occasion. Being alive is a special occasion. Avril Sloe Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mattjw916 2 #6 January 6, 2005 QuoteSometimes I wonder if you do this long enough...is it inevitable that something tragic will happen? I was having dinner with some of my friends, one of which is a true pro w/thousands of jumps and loads of ratings, and a topic similar to this came up and he said essentially that's a load of crap, and I am inclined to agree with him. What seems to be inevitable is that someone you know will be injured or go in. My personal rule that kept me alive in over a decade of racing motorcycles and cars (hardly ever the legal type if you know what I mean) is that never push yourself beyond a 7/10ths pace. That way, you always have "an out" and a margin of error to cover the unexpected. Sure, you'll have some close calls, but those extra 3/10ths will ensure you can sit around drinking a beer rather than lying there staring at the flourescent lights on the ceiling of your hospital room while you analyze it. NSCR-2376, SCR-15080 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #7 January 6, 2005 QuoteI don't know about fatalities per se, but I remember being hearing while I was a student that accidents are most likely to happen to people between 200 and 500 jumps. The reason given was that at 200 jumps you feel like you know everything and by the time you reach 500 jumps you realise you don't and are lucky not to have had an accident. This is common to many sports. 6 months to 2 years of owning a motorcycle, 50-200 scuba dives, etc. It's the point where you stopped being afraid of all the things that can go wrong, and start getting a bit lazy with safety protocols. I think pccoder is asking the question - is the common denominator of accidents the lack of currency? We have low low timers (< 100), mid level (< 500) and experienced (> 1000) all going in. But I think your bar is set a bit high with 10-20 jumps per weekend. How many people do that sort of rate, which works out to 500-1000/yr? 10%? Isn't the median well under 100? My suspicion is that for the high performance canopy accidents, the users were pretty current, if not under the canopy they just purchased. Currency can breed overconfidence. Given the small data set, I'd be surprised if you found more than a weak inverse correlation between deaths and currency. Probably bimodal too. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bodypilot1 0 #8 January 6, 2005 QuoteWhat is it that is keeping you people with 1000's of jumps (Ed) safe in this sport for so long? I can tell you in my personal experience, that just being an Instructor for so long has kept me safe. Just being able at times to keep my mind at a students level, staying on top of emergency procedures and knowing not to push my limits to the fullest extent. Always leave yourself the margin for error. I see alot of people injured doing hook turns these days just trying to look cool for the people watching them on the ground. Thats STUPID in my opinion. Also being TOTALLY aware of whats going on around you in freefall and under canopy keeps you safe also. Be aware that anything can happen on any skydive. Be safe Edwww.WestCoastWingsuits.com www.PrecisionSkydiving.com Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mjosparky 3 #9 January 6, 2005 There is no secret to staying alive. We all know drivers who go years with out being involved in a T/C. Its the same thing in skydiving. Keep listening, keep watching and keep learning. What ever part of the sport you are going to try, someone has already been there. Find these people and let them show you where the rough spots are. Learn the mistakes while on the ground. Learning them in the air can kill you. Never loose sight of the fact that skydiving will bite you in the butt if you give it a chance. And always remember, you are not nearly as F^&king good as you think you are. If you keep pushing the edge, someday you will fall off. This is recreation, we do it for enjoyment, its not worth dying for. SparkyMy idea of a fair fight is clubbing baby seals Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pccoder 0 #10 January 6, 2005 QuoteMy personal rule that kept me alive in over a decade of racing motorcycles and cars (hardly ever the legal type if you know what I mean) is that never push yourself beyond a 7/10ths pace. That way, you always have "an out" and a margin of error to cover the unexpected. I've been driving cars (like most) since around age 15-16. So at going on 34 now I have been driving for roughly 19 years. In that time I have never had an accident, never hit another vehicle, never gotten a speeding ticket. I would attribute a great deal of that to luck. However; my father was very strict when he was teaching me to drive. Always having me look at my rear-view and side mirrors and knowing that they couldn't be fully trusted; that it was safer to use them as a guide for what was near me although not a replacement for turning my head around and looking for myself. In those 19 years that I have been driving I have had a few close calls; however most have been where I dodged out of the way of another driver who was determined to include me in his/her crash intentions. If I had to guess at what has kept me accident free during all that time; it has been that I have been overly cautious. In fact, I drive fast, often leading whatever pack of vehicles on the road that I am around. I rarely don't speed. I would be considered by most people who see me drive or have driven with me an overly aggresive drive. However, I keep my eyes open and NEVER push it past that 7/10's rule that another post mentioned. I have always left myself a little bit of room for error. PcCoder.net Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
riggerrob 562 #11 January 6, 2005 QuoteQuoteSometimes I wonder if you do this long enough...is it inevitable that something tragic will happen? I was having dinner with some of my friends, one of which is a true pro w/thousands of jumps and loads of ratings, and a topic similar to this came up and he said essentially that's a load of crap, and I am inclined to agree with him. What seems to be inevitable is that someone you know will be injured or go in. My personal rule that kept me alive in over a decade of racing motorcycles and cars (hardly ever the legal type if you know what I mean) is that never push yourself beyond a 7/10ths pace. That way, you always have "an out" and a margin of error to cover the unexpected. Sure, you'll have some close calls, but those extra 3/10ths will ensure you can sit around drinking a beer rather than lying there staring at the flourescent lights on the ceiling of your hospital room while you analyze it. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> In other words: The superior pilot uses his superior judgement to avoid having to use his superior skills. Keep you rmind a least a minute ahead of your canopy and give the other guy lots of room to be stupid. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
penniless 0 #12 January 6, 2005 The best data available are those collected by USPA, but I don't think they have the level of detail you are looking for. USPA is also reluctant to let others have access for what is probably a good reason. I think kallend and Billvon once wrote that they had gotten them during the discussion on wing load limits (could be mistaken on that). Given the small number of fatalities due to any given cause, and the variables involved (age, sex, total experience, currency, time on equipment, WL, canopy size, type of jump, ground conditions, winds, AAD, RSL, ect.) I doubt you'd get a very reliable multivariate analysis anyway. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rmsmith 1 #13 January 8, 2005 QuoteThis is recreation, we do it for enjoyment, its not worth dying for. Amen! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
