Remster 24 #1 April 16, 2013 ... just became not-so-factual. http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/researchers-finally-replicated-reinhart-rogoff-and-there-are-serious-problemsRemster Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
airdvr 200 #2 April 16, 2013 Absolutely! Given the narrow set of indicators we should just say 'fuck it all' and spend ourselves even more deeply in debt. Please don't dent the planet. Destinations by Roxanne Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lawrocket 3 #3 April 16, 2013 So the study shows that high public debt does not increase growth over low public debt. So basically paying cash increases growth the same pace as running up the credit cards, without that long-term issue of debt servicing? My wife is hotter than your wife. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Remster 24 #4 April 16, 2013 Quote as running up the credit cards I did not see any credit card data in that study You can come up with whatever allegory to make yourself feel better about your assumptions, but the data does not support what was used as proven fact to push austerity.Remster Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 2,435 #5 April 16, 2013 >So the study shows that high public debt does not increase growth over low public debt. Right, the study shows basically no difference. >So basically paying cash increases growth the same pace as running up the >credit cards, without that long-term issue of debt servicing? Well, no, it's WITH the long term issue of debt servicing. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mistercwood 287 #6 April 16, 2013 I'm still yet to understand how anyone pushing for austerity as a solution to the US economy is still taken seriously, given we have to two real world examples of the pros and cons - Australia opted for stimulus and skated through the GFC with barely a scratch, while Europe has bet everything on austerity and is currently imploding. Doesn't seem like rocket surgery to me.... You are playing chicken with a planet - you can't dodge and planets don't blink. Act accordingly. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stumpy 256 #7 April 16, 2013 Yes and no. I don't believe Austerity is necessarily the answer, however Europe and Australia are two economies with entirely different constraints and pressures. Its disingenuous to compare them directly.Never try to eat more than you can lift Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mistercwood 287 #8 April 17, 2013 Yeah I know it's a bit of a stretch, stimulus was a hell of a lot easier with our much smaller population base... I'd say comparing Europe to the US isn't as a big a jump though, and it should be serving as a shining example of what not to do.You are playing chicken with a planet - you can't dodge and planets don't blink. Act accordingly. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ManagingPrime 0 #9 April 17, 2013 Quote I'm still yet to understand how anyone pushing for austerity as a solution to the US economy is still taken seriously, given we have to two real world examples of the pros and cons - Australia opted for stimulus and skated through the GFC with barely a scratch, while Europe has bet everything on austerity and is currently imploding. Doesn't seem like rocket surgery to me.... It may not be rocket surgery, but it's a little more complicated then how you presented the two scenarios. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lawrocket 3 #10 April 17, 2013 Quotewhile Europe has bet everything on austerity The European austerity is not a "bet" - it's having no choice. You can't spend money if nobody will lend it. Thus it is forced and must be accomplished in a lousy and most painful way. By the way - show me some data about this "austerity." There's a lot of talk, but I haven't seen any indication that any place has even cut spending at all. I haven't seen the data, but that's my understanding. My wife is hotter than your wife. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rehmwa 2 #11 April 17, 2013 QuoteQuotewhile Europe has bet everything on austerity The European austerity is not a "bet" - it's having no choice. You can't spend money if nobody will lend it. Thus it is forced and must be accomplished in a lousy and most painful way. By the way - show me some data about this "austerity." There's a lot of talk, but I haven't seen any indication that any place has even cut spending at all. I haven't seen the data, but that's my understanding. well, we can't really know unless we try both. Let's start by asking if we can force Germany to bail us out too..... ... Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 2,435 #12 April 17, 2013 >well, we can't really know unless we try both. We have; that's what the study is about. (Which, BTW, does not mean that "massive amounts of debt are just fine." It just means there aren't as many economic impacts to carrying a high debt ratios as first thought.) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ManagingPrime 0 #13 April 17, 2013 Quote>well, we can't really know unless we try both. We have; that's what the study is about. (Which, BTW, does not mean that "massive amounts of debt are just fine." It just means there aren't as many economic impacts to carrying a high debt ratios as first thought.) That's common sense. To single this poorly constructed and biased study serves no purpose other than to identify the obvious...it's a poorly constructed and biased study. I would not conclude that there are not many economic impacts from high DTI's. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 2,435 #14 April 17, 2013 >To single this poorly constructed and biased study serves no purpose other than >to identify the obvious...it's a poorly constructed and biased study. Exactly. That's the entire point of the article. Not only did they exclude some data, their Excel spreadsheet was just plain wrong. And since many people were basing their decisions on the original conclusions of the study, then it's important to point out that it was biased and poorly constructed (and indeed just plain wrong.) > I would not conclude that there are not many economic impacts from high DTI's. Agreed. All you can conclude is that countries do not see a GDP impact from high debt loads. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites