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Gawain

Must be a Tough Day to be Crying the "R" word...

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Well, since we haven't experienced "negative growth" at ALL, most people and businesses are "doing better" than they were three, six, nine months ago.



uh, no, that ignores inflation. Absolute growth versus "real" growth.

also, I think if we had the data necessary, we'd find that the 'haves' are doing ok on a real growth measure, why the have nots (those working for real estate and finance that got fired, for example) are not. Imagine the Titanic breaking in half - one half sank away, the other is floating upright at the moment.

I think Buffet's 'optimism' for the near term is due to the election. Usually the government works well in the election year to prop it up.

I know he's not worried- he had 40B and not many years left to spend it. Most has been given the Bill and Melinda.

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I, for one, tend to be one of those who disfavors doom and gloom. Economy is as much about perception as anything else.



But on the other hand pie-in-the-sky optimism truely odes not work. Reference Donald Rumsfelds over-optimistic outlook on the Iraq Invasion.



Actually, the invasion worked exactly as expected, even better. It was the need for boots on the ground to occupy the country that there was disagreement over.

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Realistic goals.. and realistic outlooks on trends go a lot farther towards guilding confidence as well as turning to long term finalcial well being rather than the current short term greed that permeates corporate America.



The long term is there too. Look at just about any sector of commerce and the numbers are up over any long term scale.

In fact, it is those that think it is short term that short change the system in a way. It's still better than regulation I think.
So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

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He's not your garden variety American staring down an ARM,



Nor a Bear Stearns staring down millions of them.

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dwindling IRA account



Yes. For the time being. Although stocks are picking up. Look at how many lost millions at the end of the 1990's-early 2000's in stocks.

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uncertainty in Medicare and Social Security



A whole differen tcan of worms there.

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devalued real estate



Yes. Like stocks, it'll pick up. The people really hurt on this are speculators and those who need to move (although those who need to relocate can cash in on the back end of the deal. They sold their property cheap, and can buy one cheap).

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and soaring gas prices



Yes. They are high. And probably affect those folks out there with planes, etc. Folks like United and Delta.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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no, that ignores inflation. Absolute growth versus "real" growth.



Factory orders are up, too.

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the have nots (those working for real estate and finance that got fired, for example) are not.



Three or four years ago, they were the "haves," weren't they? And look now? Now they are the "have nots." But it seems that they were the ones who were really, really viewed as making a killing - and they DID make killings. Now opportunities are being presented for people who did not have the opportunity previously.

The haves can lose what they have. The have-nots can become haves fairly quickly, as well.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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The haves can lose what they have. The have-nots can become haves fairly quickly, as well.



In the current state of affairs, upward mobility is very difficult. That tends to happen during the booms. Right now the have-nots need to focus on survival in the face of zero liquidity in the credit markets and steep inflation.

OTOH, downward mobility is very easy in this environment - esp if one takes even greater risk to try to maintain high return. I think a lot of people lost their socks, if not their shirts, on Yahoo over the weekend. Not as bad as the Bear blowup, but certainly some blood.

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In the current state of affairs, upward mobility is very difficult.



INSTANT upward mobility is difficult. I didn't make more than 22k in a year until I was 29 years old. While some of my friends were becoming wealthy on the internet, I stayed in school and got educated. Those people who were wealthy weren't wealthy a year later.

The longer it takes for you to move up, the longer it takes for you to move down. Those who had seen amazing appreciation and welath in their properties within the span of a few months found themselves losing their wealth fairly quickly - unless they sold big at the point and bought low. (My old boss did that. He sold his penthouse in Marina Del Rey and bought a small condo in August, 2005. He said, "We've peaked and I'm gonna sell big and buy small." He brought himself down about 10 notches. Downward mobility. And he came out WAYYYY ahead)

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OTOH, downward mobility is very easy in this environment



Downward mobility is easy in ANY environment. I'd say it's harder now to move down than it was a year ago. Because values have so depreciated, downside risks are lower now than they were, right?

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esp if one takes even greater risk to try to maintain high return



Absolutely! This has ALWAYS been the case. The bigger the risk, the bigger the possible gains or losses. There is nothing different.

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think a lot of people lost their socks, if not their shirts, on Yahoo over the weekend.



Yes. Those that bought Yahoo with the hopes that the sale would go through. Those that have had Yahoo for a while haven't lost anything more than "paper worth" - like those internet millionaires who were never really millionaires to begin with.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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think a lot of people lost their socks, if not their shirts, on Yahoo over the weekend.



Yes. Those that bought Yahoo with the hopes that the sale would go through. Those that have had Yahoo for a while haven't lost anything more than "paper worth" - like those internet millionaires who were never really millionaires to begin with.



to be most precise - those who bought yahoo on leverage. Even those who bough bear long, only could lose 90% of their investment. But those who bought large number of calls suddenly owed 150k in margin calls.

So that's in line with the people you described as got rich quick, got poor quick. But I think it's quite possible for got rich slow, get poor quick to occur (employees of Bears that didn't diversity out of company stock). And for all the high fliers in real estate and banking that fell from the sky, quite a few little people under them got hurt as well. Some didn't deserve that fate. (and others, well overdue)

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kallend will love this post:D

From NewsMax linking to UCLA info:D

kallend, better read before you yell "NewMax":D:D
http://w3.newsmax.com/fir/fir_54.cfm?promo_code=2A89-1

Ya, I know it is an advertisement but I can have fun too:)

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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After hearing about this on the radio yesterday, I knew someone was going to bump this thread.

The unemployment data is not great news, but 5.5% unemployment is hardly awful.

The investors on Wall Street did a great job of "panic" reaction yesterday for sure.
So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

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Most economist expected the rate to increase by by 10 basis points not 50, so yes it is bad. Compound that with the price of crude going up 10 dollars and the market reacted.



The oil price was a reaction to a weakened dollar in the wake of the employment numbers. Thus the rest of the gang sh*t their pants.
So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

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After hearing about this on the radio yesterday, I knew someone was going to bump this thread.

The unemployment data is not great news, but 5.5% unemployment is hardly awful.

The investors on Wall Street did a great job of "panic" reaction yesterday for sure.



Right, those GOP tax cuts sure stimulated the economy.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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After hearing about this on the radio yesterday, I knew someone was going to bump this thread.

The unemployment data is not great news, but 5.5% unemployment is hardly awful.

The investors on Wall Street did a great job of "panic" reaction yesterday for sure.



Right, those GOP tax cuts sure stimulated the economy.



If you look at the historical data, rather than the past 30 days, you are correct.
So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

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Most economist expected the rate to increase by by 10 basis points not 50, so yes it is bad. Compound that with the price of crude going up 10 dollars and the market reacted.



Economists have had a helluva time with things lately, haven't they? The past several months, they've been predicting sour news and negative growth. Then, it kept on doing better than expected.

Now, they've predicted a somewhat rosier picture, and this happens with employment. Od course, most economists look at "full employment" as somewhere between 4 percent and 6 percent, so we're still there.

I'd like ot look more into what kind of unemployment we've got. It doesn't apear to be frictional unemployment, where it's just a matter of time before workers find the jobs that are out there.

There may be some issue of structural unemployment - such as the type caused by garment workers losing their jobs overseas. This is likely a piece of it, as many jobs are being outsourced overseas.

I'd say this is likely the third type - cyclical unemployment that is increasing. Due to lower demand for goods and services, the demand for workers is less than the number of workers out there.

While this corresponds with recessions, it is difficult for me to look at "full employment" and find "recession." They don't seem to add up.

To me, the big thing was the oil - up 13% in two days. Many would like to blame the dollar - I don't think it fell 13% in two days, now did it?

Right now, with the global economy, we've got China and India buying up loads of it. We are competing, and the bigger the demand, the higher the price. Right now, there are speculators going wild with it. Too bad it happened on a Friday - so that it didn't have the chance to correct.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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Recession is just a word. I paid $4.40 a gallon for gas yesterday. Food is way up. Unemployment is up. My wages aren't going up enough to match. The housing mess ain't going away for awhile. I call it a big fuckin MESS. I think war is good for the economy. Yeah. That's the ticket. Let's go attack IRAN. ;)

I hold it true, whate'er befall;
I feel it, when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all.

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consumer spending is up and the overall economy grew (a hair).



Consumer spending is up because everything costs more.
LOL. Good answer. And. Everybody's spending that BIG tax rebate. ON GAS prolly.[:/]
I hold it true, whate'er befall;
I feel it, when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all.

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Point being, 2 consecutive quarters of decline is NOT the determining factor, contrary to Gawain's original claim. NBER has yet to rule on the current situation.

However, I don't think ANY voters need the NBER, you, me, or GWB to tell them how they are faring under $4 gas, high food prices, the $US in the basement, homes losing value...

Ding ding ding. We have a winner.;)

This statement by Kallend has made the most sense to me. I think everyone is arguing semantics. Maybe the pure definition of 'recession' does not yet apply but we are in financial trouble in this country. I fear it is going to get much worse before it gets better.

I hold it true, whate'er befall;
I feel it, when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all.

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The haves can lose what they have. The have-nots can become haves fairly quickly, as well.

Whatever you're smokin I want some.
I hold it true, whate'er befall;
I feel it, when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all.

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the pure definition of 'recession' does not yet apply but we are in financial trouble in this country.



If the definition of something is dependant solely upon the subjective feelings about things, then it seems to me that there is a problem.

How many people out there have said, "I felt like I did great on that test." Yeah? Well, after scoring, you got a 64 out of 100. You felt good, but you scred an "unsat."

That's why there should be some form of objective criteria. "I don't need actual intelligence out there to tell me that Iraq is a terrorist threat. I just talk to everyday people, and they think that war with Iraq will be good for stopping terrorism."

That's the reason why I don't like to base my ideas or thoughts on what everybody else is feeling. If I wanted that, I'll just read my horoscope.

I'll stick to objective evidence, thank you. And I'll look at the opinions of everyone as what it is called - "The Consumer Confidence Index." It seems to be exactly what kallend was talkign about. The CCI doesn't say whether we're in a recession.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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The oil price was a reaction to a weakened dollar in the wake of the employment numbers. Thus the rest of the gang sh*t their pants.



Friday the dollar slipped some more, a prognosticator predicted $150/barrel oil within a month and Israel threatened to bomb Iran. Anyone can pick and choose their reasoning to suit their argument. The bottom line is that we depend on the stuff too much. Cut usage and we all benefit. My vote is for a four day work week, electric cars and mass transit for everyday travel and leave the petroleum based products to aviation related activities for the time being.

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Sure!

A small sample of some other predictions and prognostications from the Bush administration:

The deficit will be small and short term.

It could last six days, six weeks. I doubt six months.

The most important thing is for us to find Osama bin Laden. It is our number one priority and we will not rest until we find him.

We know where they are.

A balanced federal budget remains a high priority for this president


...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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Sure!

A small sample of some other predictions and prognostications from the Bush administration:

The deficit will be small and short term.

It could last six days, six weeks. I doubt six months.

The most important thing is for us to find Osama bin Laden. It is our number one priority and we will not rest until we find him.

We know where they are.

A balanced federal budget remains a high priority for this president



Ignore the topic and bash bush

squirt ..............
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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Sure!

A small sample of some other predictions and prognostications from the Bush administration:

The deficit will be small and short term.

It could last six days, six weeks. I doubt six months.

The most important thing is for us to find Osama bin Laden. It is our number one priority and we will not rest until we find him.

We know where they are.

A balanced federal budget remains a high priority for this president



Ignore the topic and bash bush

squirt ..............



Just illustrating that predictions made by this administration are generally worthless - the context being Paulson's prediction about the economy in your cited article.

I don't understand, given this administration's record of total ineptitude in almost every area, how you can believe anything any of them say.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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