Research indicates 25-70% Probability of Gulf Stream Shutdown

[AdD 1]

http://news.mongabay.com/2005/1207-uiuc.html

25% chance of shutdown by 2100 given maximum carbon reduction policies implemented today. 45% chance if nothing is done. Absent any climate policy, there is a 70% chance that it will shut down by 2200. To recap, the Gulf Stream is driven by the salinity differential in the North Atlantic, which has been deterioting as the polar ice melts. Gulf Stream shutdown occurred 8000, and 12000 years ago and can result in 5-10 degree farenheit temperature drops in the North within a decade.

The possible results are explored in a Pentagon study of abrupt climate change:

Annual average temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over Asia
and North America and 6 degrees Fahrenheit in northern Europe
• Annual average temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit in key
areas throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa.
• Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in
the water resource regions for major population centers in Europe and eastern
North America.
• Winter storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impacts of the changes.
Western Europe and the North Pacific experience enhanced winds.

The report explores how such an abrupt climate change scenario could potentially
de-stabilize the geo-political environment, leading to skirmishes, battles, and even
war due to resource constraints such as:

1) Food shortages due to decreases in net global agricultural production
2) Decreased availability and quality of fresh water in key regions due to shifted
precipitation patters, causing more frequent floods and droughts
3) Disrupted access to energy supplies due to extensive sea ice and storminess

As global and local carrying capacities are reduced, tensions could mount around the
world, leading to two fundamental strategies: defensive and offensive. Nations with
the resources to do so may build virtual fortresses around their countries, preserving
resources for themselves. Less fortunate nations especially those with ancient
enmities with their neighbors, may initiate in struggles for access to food, clean
water, or energy. Unlikely alliances could be formed as defense priorities shift and
the goal is resources for survival rather than religion, ideology, or national honor.
http://www.greenpeace.org/raw/content/international/press/reports/an-abrupt-climate-change-scena.pdf

Life is ez
On the dz
Every jumper's dream
3 rigs and an airstream

[namgrunt 0]

OK OK

i WILL SELL MY GULF STREAM AND GET AN OTTER

..

..

59 YEARS,OVERWEIGHT,BALDIND,X-GRUNT
LAST MIL. JUMP VIET-NAM(QUAN-TRI)
www.dzmemories.com

[SkydiveJack 1]

Wow, I started flying a Gulfstream G-4 this year and haven't had any major problems. Oh God, I have a two day trip this week. Now I'm worried!!!!

Jack

[Gravitymaster 0]

Here's another article I found very interesting. Let me know what you think.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/4923504.stm

-

[shropshire 0]

Presumably, if the Gulf stream is going to shut down due to the lowering of salinity through increases addition of fresh water from the ice caps melting..
Then, the temperature in the northern hemisphere will decrease and the ice shelf reestablished, salinity will increase and the cycle will continue.

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

[AdD 1]

Then, the temperature in the northern hemisphere will decrease and the ice shelf reestablished, salinity will increase and the cycle will continue. ///

That would be great. Too bad my province (Nova Scotia) will be mostly under water till it does.

Life is ez
On the dz
Every jumper's dream
3 rigs and an airstream

[shropshire 0]

Well afterwards you can call it Nova, Nova Scotia...

Better start building that ark, too.



P.S I live in East Anglia.... so we'll be in the same boat.

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

[jdhill 0]

Quote

25-70% Probability

Oh, to be a weather man, where I could get by giving odds like that...

J

[narcimund 0]

Quote

Oh, to be a weather man, where I could get by giving odds like that...

I'd be hard pressed to think of many things I could predict with more accuracy 94 years in advance and all of them are silly and trivial.

"Sun will rise."
"Moon will revolve."

etc.

First Class Citizen Twice Over

[kelpdiver 2]

3% chance that these probabilities are more accurate than what I could generate with 3 darts.

But it was nicely summarized to make a good headline.

[billvon 2,426]

>Then, the temperature in the northern hemisphere will decrease and
> the ice shelf reestablished, salinity will increase and the cycle will
> continue.

Yep. In the long run (100,000+ years) little will change. But in the next hundred years, we may manage to make life miserable for ourselves.

[shropshire 0]

Sure, but the planet will survive [us].... Every cloud has a silver lining.

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome