What's up with meteorologists?

[hobie331 0]

We have a fly-in at our local airport this weekend. It's a little ditty that's been going on for several years and they always bring a jump plane in. It's a chance to stay at home and jump and eat awesome BBQ. It's called When Pigs Fly and revolves around airplanes and a BBQ competition that brings competitors in from several states around KS. Anyway, I have been watching the weather forecasts the last several days and started saving them to compare. They have literally changed every 12 hours. And I'm not talking a little. We've gone from no rain, to rain, to rain three days in a row, to no rain and back again. Wind up/down and everything in between. I just don't get it. Why forecast several days in advance when you obviously can't get it right for the next 12 hours.
Somebody, anybody, please explain this to me.

It's a gift, I don't try to explain it.

[pilotdave 0]

I have a friend that got his masters degree in meteorology. He had to do more math and physics for that than I did to get a degree in aerospace engineering. But I'd always joke with him when he'd say he did well in his forecasting class... "you got a 51% on your test??"

Dave

[hobie331 0]

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But I'd always joke with him when he'd say he did well in his forecasting class... "you got a 51% on your test??"

Dave

Now that's funny.

It's a gift, I don't try to explain it.

[Armour666 0]

Every 12 hours? Maybe that’s when the shift change happens?

SO this one time at band camp.....

"Of all the things I've lost I miss my mind the most."

[Andrewwhyte 1]

A CAT5 'cane breaking up to the south might strain the robustness of the model a bit.

[wildcard451 0]

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A CAT5 'cane breaking up to the south might strain the robustness of the model a bit.

Quit using logic. This is not the place for that kind of thought.

[Andrewwhyte 1]

Sorry.

[Broke 0]

All science is is mearly our best guess given the current data. It isn't an exact science

Divot your source for all things Hillbilly.
Anvil Brother 84
SCR 14192

[godfrog 2]

I like that weather forcaster that strips while she does the weather forcast, never can remember if it's supposed to rain, snow, or shine

Experience is a difficult teacher, she gives you the test first and the lesson afterward

[ScottishJohn 25]

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Every 12 hours? Maybe that’s when the shift change happens?

It's probably because they rerun the model every 12 hours.

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If you think my attitude stinks you should smell my fingers

[LyraM45 0]

I just finished up with my B.S in Aviation Meteorology. I'll back up what some people have said that we end up doing more math and physics for a meteorology degree than some engineering degrees. I don't know if anybody will ever 100% understand the dynamics in our atmosphere and the little bits that influence our daily weather everyday. Computers and models get us pretty close, but each one handles different variables better or worse than another. As for your forecast changing every 12 hours, I can only tell you that its normal-- especially if your a week or so out from the forecast point; and as for the forecast exactly 12 hours out, it should be somewhat on point and if its ass backwards wrong, then the model and the forecaster ate it big time on that one.

Where was this fly-in event located at? Some areas are harder to forecast than others... harder sometimes especially if you're around mountains.

Let me know where this event was located and maybe I can come up with a little insight as to what happened.

Apologies for the spelling (and grammar).... I got a B.S, not a B.A. :)

[hobie331 0]

The fly-in is smack in the middle of Kansas.
Don't get me wrong. I DO respect what meteorologists do. Especially here in Tornado Alley. I like it when they break in to the middle of My Name is Earl and tell me to duck because an F4 is right outside my window.
My frustration lies in the fact that why forecast 10 days out if you can't be accurate? Why 7 days, 4 days, or even 2-3 if there's no accuracy?

It's a gift, I don't try to explain it.