billvon 2,400 #101 December 26, 2011 >$100 a gallon? Wherever did you get that number? Well, from 1987 to 2008 gas prices doubled every 5.5 years. So assuming $4.00/gal today we'd see $128 a gallon in about 28 years. This assumes, of course, that: -the demand/supply pricing curve stays about the same -supply continues to grow -demand continues to grow, which means 1) more people (mainly in developing countries) drive 2) people continue to drive larger vehicles -inflation continues (safe bet) If increase in demand slows (people stop driving, or carpool more or whatever) it might take longer to reach that price. If supply doesn't climb as quickly as we expect (i.e. tar sands scale up more slowly than predicted) then it might take less time. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #102 December 27, 2011 Quote>$100 a gallon? Wherever did you get that number? Well, from 1987 to 2008 gas prices doubled every 5.5 years. So assuming $4.00/gal today we'd see $128 a gallon in about 28 years. This assumes, assumes a lot, since the price of gas substantially decreased in 2009 due to reduced driving, and still hasn't gotten back to that $4 point. Our prior history of dramatic changes from very small changes in the demand v supply indicate it's not a linear progression. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 2,400 #103 December 27, 2011 >Our prior history of dramatic changes from very small changes in the demand v supply >indicate it's not a linear progression. Agreed. It may be faster, it may be slower. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
