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rushmc

Arctic Ice Levels

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There are a couple of problems with the reasoning, but I'll look a bit more deeply.

(1) The trend is down in this graph.
(2) El Nino years - there is no correlation. 1983 was a strong El Nino year and there was the beginning of a significant decline (at LEAST a ten year low - probably a greater length of time).



I disagree - look again

And el Ninos don't cause uniform temperature changes across the globe. Some places get colder.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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I didn't realize that the scientific method included voting. At one point, the majority believed the earth was flat, and also the center of the solar system (and universe).

You're using gravity to legitimize the far less mature science around climate on earth. And here it looks like you're suggesting that majority rules is the way it should proceed.



Hardly. You operate according to your understanding. The scientific method of observation was used to determine the shape of the earth and its position with regard to the solar system. If the GW deniers want to buck the current understanding of climate change then I say "have at it". That's what science is all about.

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I didn't realize that the scientific method included voting. At one point, the majority believed the earth was flat, and also the center of the solar system (and universe).

You're using gravity to legitimize the far less mature science around climate on earth. And here it looks like you're suggesting that majority rules is the way it should proceed.



Hardly. You operate according to your understanding. The scientific method of observation was used to determine the shape of the earth and its position with regard to the solar system. If the GW deniers want to buck the current understanding of climate change then I say "have at it". That's what science is all about.



The current understanding is pretty much at the level of - "we're going to get hotter." Not doing very well at the when and how much bits. Then you have those that exaggerate wildly (both up and down) for political reasons.

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>The current understanding is pretty much at the level of - "we're going to get hotter."

Do you really think this? If so I can understand your confusion.



Have the past few years fit the models? Weather/climate remains far more complicated. It's hard to say there's a clear consensus when the range of possible results is so wide.

Part of the problem no doubt stems from what I mentioned - Al Gore types making scary predictions that don't happen, and aren't even supportable, have to be retracted.

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There are a couple of problems with the reasoning, but I'll look a bit more deeply.

(1) The trend is down in this graph.
(2) El Nino years - there is no correlation. 1983 was a strong El Nino year and there was the beginning of a significant decline (at LEAST a ten year low - probably a greater length of time).



I disagree - look again

And el Ninos don't cause uniform temperature changes across the globe. Some places get colder.



Okay. 1983 was the el Nino year - and there was less Ice than in 1982. I see a 1982 peak, decrease in 1983 and large decline in 1984.

And true, some places get colder. The ENSO typically warms up the northern US-souther Canada while the polar jet stream acts as somewhat of a barrier from it moving north.

But we're talking about the arctic, professor. The ENSO's effect is not typically felt much in the arctic but rather in temperate climates during the winter period.


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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>Have the past few years fit the models?

In general, yes. 2000-2010 is the warmest decade on record. On a season to season basis, no.

> It's hard to say there's a clear consensus when the range of possible
> results is so wide.

There's a pretty clear consensus on the likelihood of events, but not on exactly what will happen. Climate models can predict climate pretty accurately but not day to day (or even season to season) weather.

That sort of uncertainty isn't limited to climate science, of course. Look at medical research into smoking. We now know to a very good degree of accuracy how much smoking shortens your life and how much it increases your risk of lung cancer, emphysema and heart disease. But if a doctor tells a patient he must quit smoking for health reasons, and he lives to age 85, does that mean that "the science on smoking isn't settled?" Does it prove that that doctor was a lying alarmists? Nope. Rather it demonstrates that understanding the underlying causes of disease does not lead to a 100% success rate in predicting when those diseases will strike.

>Part of the problem no doubt stems from what I mentioned - Al Gore types
>making scary predictions that don't happen, and aren't even supportable,
>have to be retracted.

Yep. As the deniers who predicted back in 1985 that global warming was bunk had to retract theirs when temperatures kept rising. Neither of those undermines the basic science of what's happening.

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Yep. As the deniers who predicted back in 1985 that global warming was bunk had to retract theirs when temperatures kept rising. Neither of those undermines the basic science of what's happening.



no. But it does make this notion of 'consensus of the majority' more problematic.

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There are a couple of problems with the reasoning, but I'll look a bit more deeply.

(1) The trend is down in this graph.
(2) El Nino years - there is no correlation. 1983 was a strong El Nino year and there was the beginning of a significant decline (at LEAST a ten year low - probably a greater length of time).



I disagree - look again

And el Ninos don't cause uniform temperature changes across the globe. Some places get colder.



Okay. 1983 was the el Nino year - and there was less Ice than in 1982. I see a 1982 peak, decrease in 1983 and large decline in 1984.

And true, some places get colder. The ENSO typically warms up the northern US-souther Canada while the polar jet stream acts as somewhat of a barrier from it moving north.

But we're talking about the arctic, professor. The ENSO's effect is not typically felt much in the arctic but rather in temperate climates during the winter period.



From http://ggweather.com/enso/years.htm

1982-83 W+ W W+ W+ Strong El Niño
1983-84 C-
1984-85 C- C-
1985-86
1986-87 W W
1987-88 W+ W- W W- El Niño
1988-89 C+ C- C+ C Strong La Niña
1989-90
1990-91 W+
1991-92 W W W+ W+ Strong El Niño
1992-93 W W+ W- El Niño
1993-94 W+ W
1994-95 W+ W W- El Niño
1995-96 C- C-
1996-97
1997-98 W+ W W+ W+ Strong El Niño
1998-99 C+ C C- La Niña
1999-00 C C
2000-01 C C C- C- La Niña
2001-02
2002-03 W W W W El Niño
2009-10 El Niño

Looks to me like peaks on that graph occur at or within a year most of these el Nino years. Not a perfect correlation, but that's a problem with weather and climate.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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>Have the past few years fit the models?

In general, yes. 2000-2010 is the warmest decade on record. On a season to season basis, no.



Not really, bill. There have been a lot of variances. For example, the "Alarmist" community wondered how they'd not predicted the massive arctic ice minimum of 2007, and the near repeat of 2008.

They looked at the short-term phenomena and started asking questions.

Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, not one model predicted the last 10 plus years of pause in warming that occurred without volcanic activity or strong la nina.

In many ways, the models are not predicting the phenomena that are occurring. It appears that the trend now is for warming, but on the very low end of or below the predicted level of warming.

[Reply] As the deniers who predicted back in 1985 that global warming was bunk had to retract theirs when temperatures kept rising. Neither of those undermines the basic science of what's happening.



Part of the problem out there is people who look at it and say, "yep. I get the concept. But while it looks like global warming is real, the amount of warming and its effects are likely to be negligible.

There's a culture of distortion on both sides. In looking at the icecaps and the warming temperatures, the IPCC gave a temperature history above 55 degrees north latitude showing anuual, winter and summer warming between 1930 and 1945 being greater than we have now. This before the anthropogenic greenhouse gases could have taken effect. Even greater warming (though the record is spottier) appears for temperatures above 75 degree north latitude.

You've got fears of Greenland melting. The science shows Greenland [I]as a whole in stasis, and the parts of Greenland where the ice is thinning are actually getting colder. (Which makes sense, of course).

There was big press 10 years ago about open water at the North Pole in summertime. The oceanographer, James J. McCarthy, who was quoted about the open water refused to argue that it was unprecedented. The New York Times even printed a retraction for mentioning that open water at the North Pole was unprecedented - this in 2000.

Climatologists are pretty much in "consensus" agreement that for 3k years, the Arctic was 2 degrees C warmer than it is now (between 4k and 7k years ago).

This is why I so object to the terms "unprecedented warming" and "unpredented warmth" being used. Because usually we can prove it isn't unprecedented, and other times the data just isn't there to support or deny it.

Yes. AGW as a theory makes sense. Yes, you can demonstrate CO2 warming in the lab. I get that.

But if that were the case, then we would have seen between .2 and .8 degrees C warming in the last decade considering the increase in CO2 concetrations. It didn't happen.

I'm on the camp that AGW is happening (meaning I'm not a "denier"), but at a much slower pace that the alarmists predict. It looks like the models are pretty linear in their predictions.

Climate modeling is uncertain. The different climate processes (ie effect of humidity on vegetation) is only slightly understood. Hundreds of these processes go into clomate models.

No climate model comes out the same because of the choices made by the modelers. The only way to check the continuing validity is short term weather results compared to the model - and the models aint getting it too correctly.

Looking at the trends, we're on the low side. I'll kep my eye on the results. I'll look at the past performances, as well.

and I'll put my money on, "yep. It's real. But it's not looking as bad as they said."


My wife is hotter than your wife.

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More good news!

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-06/arctic-sea-ice-melting-season-posts-latest-start-on-record.html[url]

The next few years will be a lot of fun as the Warmists will be forced to develop increasingly sophisticated mental gymnastics to deal with the basic fact that the globe is now cooling.

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>>In general, yes. 2000-2010 is the warmest decade on record. On a
>>season to season basis, no.

>Not really, bill.

============
Past Decade Warmest on Record, NASA Data Shows
By JOHN M. BRODER
Published: January 21, 2010

WASHINGTON — The decade ending in 2009 was the warmest on record, new surface temperature figures released Thursday by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration show.

The agency also found that 2009 was the second warmest year since 1880, when modern temperature measurement began. The warmest year was 2005. The other hottest recorded years have all occurred since 1998, NASA said.
=============

>Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, not one model predicted
>the last 10 plus years of pause in warming that occurred without volcanic
> activity or strong la nina.

True. Nor did anyone predict the pause in GW from 1945-1975 - at least until they learned what high altitude aerosols do to insolation. Once they did learn about that effect, they realized that the basics of AGW were in fact valid, and an external factor they hadn't considered was causing a reduction in total insolation.

>Yes. AGW as a theory makes sense. Yes, you can demonstrate CO2
>warming in the lab. I get that.

Agreed.

>But if that were the case, then we would have seen between .2 and .8
>degrees C warming in the last decade considering the increase in CO2
>concetrations. It didn't happen.

You're making an awful lot of assumptions there. How much positive forcing occurred because of increased methane emissions? How much negative feedback did we get from increased snowfall and clouds? What effect did the reduced insolation from the low solar cycle we had over the last 11 years have?

More than one thing affects climate. That's why AGW effects are often described as "forcing" because it is one of the forces that affect the climate. Barring any other effects it will get warmer. Including other effects it will _tend_ to get warmer over time, but other factors will have their say as well.

>and I'll put my money on, "yep. It's real. But it's not looking as bad
>as they said."

Agreed. Nor is it as benign as the deniers claim.

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I have, the war is over, science has triumphed!

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/views/story/0,4574,380103,00.html?[url]

"The 'climate establishment', with a vested interest in maintaining climate scares and fanning fears, is desperately trying to save the IPCC and the AGW myth. A number of 'investigations' have been started, mostly trying to excuse IPCC errors and 'whitewash' the frauds committed. The latest such effort involves national science academies, called on by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. But it's too late: the public no longer trusts the UN, the IPCC, and its prophets of doom."

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>>In general, yes. 2000-2010 is the warmest decade on record. On a
>>season to season basis, no.

>Not really, bill.

============
Past Decade Warmest on Record, NASA Data Shows
By JOHN M. BRODER
Published: January 21, 2010

WASHINGTON — The decade ending in 2009 was the warmest on record, new surface temperature figures released Thursday by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration show.

The agency also found that 2009 was the second warmest year since 1880, when modern temperature measurement began. The warmest year was 2005. The other hottest recorded years have all occurred since 1998, NASA said.
=============

>Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, not one model predicted
>the last 10 plus years of pause in warming that occurred without volcanic
> activity or strong la nina.

True. Nor did anyone predict the pause in GW from 1945-1975 - at least until they learned what high altitude aerosols do to insolation. Once they did learn about that effect, they realized that the basics of AGW were in fact valid, and an external factor they hadn't considered was causing a reduction in total insolation.

>Yes. AGW as a theory makes sense. Yes, you can demonstrate CO2
>warming in the lab. I get that.

Agreed.

>But if that were the case, then we would have seen between .2 and .8
>degrees C warming in the last decade considering the increase in CO2
>concetrations. It didn't happen.

You're making an awful lot of assumptions there. How much positive forcing occurred because of increased methane emissions? How much negative feedback did we get from increased snowfall and clouds? What effect did the reduced insolation from the low solar cycle we had over the last 11 years have?

More than one thing affects climate. That's why AGW effects are often described as "forcing" because it is one of the forces that affect the climate. Barring any other effects it will get warmer. Including other effects it will _tend_ to get warmer over time, but other factors will have their say as well.

>and I'll put my money on, "yep. It's real. But it's not looking as bad
>as they said."

Agreed. Nor is it as benign as the deniers claim.



So how do you square this against the fact that NASA stated last month that their data sucks and that they know they have problems with it?
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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So how do you square this against the fact that NASA stated last month that their data sucks and that they know they have problems with it?



No, that is NOT what NASA stated. It is what some right wing sources misinterpreted NASA's statement to say.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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So how do you square this against the fact that NASA stated last month that their data sucks and that they know they have problems with it?



No, that is NOT what NASA stated. It is what some right wing sources misinterpreted NASA's statement to say.


Hi kallend

still avoiding reality I see:)
Have a nice day:D
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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So how do you square this against the fact that NASA stated last month that their data sucks and that they know they have problems with it?



No, that is NOT what NASA stated. It is what some right wing sources misinterpreted NASA's statement to say.


Hi kallend

still avoiding reality I see:)
Have a nice day:D


Please provide a link to the NASA statement where they stated that their data "sucks". Not to a right wing blog or to FOX, but to the original source.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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By its own admission, NASA's temperature records are in even worse shape than the besmirched Climate-gate data.

E-mail messages obtained by a Freedom of Information Act request reveal that NASA concluded that its own climate findings were inferior to those maintained by both the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) -- the scandalized source of the leaked Climate-gate e-mails -- and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center.




http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/03/30/nasa-data-worse-than-climategate-data/

Just in case :D
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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So how do you square this against the fact that NASA stated last month that their data sucks and that they know they have problems with it?



No, that is NOT what NASA stated. It is what some right wing sources misinterpreted NASA's statement to say.


Hi kallend

still avoiding reality I see:)
Have a nice day:D


Please provide a link to the NASA statement where they stated that their data "sucks". Not to a right wing blog or to FOX, but to the original source.


There is no source out there you will pay attention to if it goes against your predeterminded world view

:D:D
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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>So how do you square this against the fact that NASA stated last month
>that their data sucks and that they know they have problems with it?

The same way you maintain your beliefs that climate change ended in 1998 I imagine.



Ahhhh

so we can assume bad data is good data if you agree it

Thats cool.B|
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

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So how do you square this against the fact that NASA stated last month that their data sucks and that they know they have problems with it?



No, that is NOT what NASA stated. It is what some right wing sources misinterpreted NASA's statement to say.


Hi kallend

still avoiding reality I see:)
Have a nice day:D


Please provide a link to the NASA statement where they stated that their data "sucks". Not to a right wing blog or to FOX, but to the original source.


There is no source out there you will pay attention to if it goes against your predeterminded world view

:D:D


I would believe a NASA press release on the issue, rather than FOX NEWS's interpretation of it. Is there some part of "original" that you don't understand?
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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