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GQ_jumper

UFC 84: Ill Will

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For some strange reason I haven't been able to get myself to sit in front of the computer and do my usual write up for the life of me, I have however spent a lot of time watching old fight videos of all the fighters and breaking down what they are taking into this fight, so I'm gonna keep it short and share what I've learned.

BJ Penn is the betting favorite in his matchup against Sherk, BJ has definitely earned his nickname, "the prodigy", he has heavy hands, solid boxing skills, great head movement, unbelievable takedown defense, freakish flexibility in his hips, and a submission game that is nothing short of being the best in the fight game. He was the first non-Brazilian fighter to ever win the BJJ world championships in the black belt division. His downfall, conditioning and dedication to training, BJ Penn is a cocky little fuck who thinks his natural ability is enough to carry him through anything, unfortunately this attitude has cost him dearly a handful of times, his ego has led to 3 of his 4 losses. The big question in this fight is whether or not Penn's recent dedication to conditioning is going to carry over into this fight or not.

Sean Sherk is another freak of nature, nobody in the lightweight division carries around the type of muscle that this guy does, his arms and neck are so big he is seemingly immune to submissions. Hermes Franca got sherk in no less than 5 deep guillotine chokes in their fight and couuldn't submit Sherk with any of them. Sherk also posseses an iron chin, he took some solid knees everytime he shot for a takedown against Hermes and none of them slowed him down. He has a wrestling ability that is second to none in the ligthweight division and his boxing skills are highly underrated, this is largely due to the lack of reach he posseses. In his fight against GSP he was actually scoring some solid shots in the first til GSP adjusted his gameplan and started making use of his reach advantage. Sherk's conditioning is also top notch, at the end of a 5 round fight he looks like he did stepping into the octagon for round one. The only losses in his 30+ fight career have been to GSP and Hughes, two of the best fighters in the game, who also had a huge size advantage over Sherk, Hughes couldn't even finish Sherk, it went to decision and Sherk got the upper hand once or twice during the course of that fight. Sherk has proved he is tougher than shit and almost unstoppable, but at the same time has let people down with his lack of offense, a lot of his victories went the distance. Two big unknowns going into this fight for Sherk are whether or not the time off for the suspension has affected him and if he is as big and controlling for this fight as he normally is, I saw a picture of him the other day that had people nicknaming his Sean Shrink, he doesn't look nearly as big as he used to.

So for the outcome, if Penn comes in and utilizes his reach to punish Sherk on his feet and maintains his takedown defense to keep the fight standing so Sherk can't get a controlling position and drag out a decision, Penn can win. And if by chance Penn can out-position Sherk in the ground game, it is very likely we will see a submission. However, if Sherk can get on the inside on the feet, he can use his short reach and strength to his advantage and wear down Penn on his feet opening him up to the takedown. If the fight goes to the ground and Sherk uses his strength to wear down Penn and drag it into the later rounds he can take the fight. It all comes down to how long this fight lasts, the longer it goes the more it moves into Sherk's favor, but if Penn can stay busy enough in the first three rounds stuffing takedowns, picking shots and making solid submission attempts than even if he gases and barely survives rounds 4 and 5 he can still drag out a victory.

Overall, I fucking despise BJ and his attitude, but his talent can't be denied, he controls his own destiny in this fight, so even though he is the betting favorite in this fight I'm going to be cheering for Sherk because I think he's done far more deserve the title of champion, and sometimes its fun to cheer for the underdog. And who knows, maybe Sean has a trick up his sleeve we haven't seen yet.

I'm going to try and get the other two fights tomorrow but for now I have to go for a run and crash, it's a bitch when you wake up at 3 to go to work:P
History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid.
--Dwight D. Eisenhower

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Hmmm, thought Yuma was in the middle of nowhere with nothing to do. Maybe if you would just rest from all that running, maybe you could start a post or two! :P

I think I would pick Sherk for this one. Granted BJ has talent up the ass, Sherk has strength and endurance. Think I'll put in a little wager in Vegas!! :)

~Built for Abuse
www.skydivethefarm.com

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Sherk.

I don't remember alot of his fights but I saw some highlights...

..and I saw BJ Penn s fights. If you ain't got endurance talent is only as good as luck.

I think Sherk will come in with good conditioning and all he has to do is fight.

IF he gets in close and throws his muscle around and leans on BJ BJ will tire quickly.

IF its a stand up fight theres a slim chance BJ will KO Sherk but theres a VERY HIGH chance BJ will get tired after taking 23 steps around the ring.


BJ SUCKS! Mostly because of his attitude, as you stated. In his last fight when he won the belt he made it seem like he fought the toughest fight in his life. I dont remember anything SPECTACULAR during the fight and I've seen some folks go a lot harder for 3,4, and 5 full rounds.

His "rocky" type attitude towards his victory is pathetic and it shows him as a poor sportsman.


By rocky type atitude I mean he doesn't train so in essence he is fighting against himself before he ever steps foot in the ring. Then, he acts as if he should be praised for such a tough fight.


If he did any cardio most of his fights would be lightning fast and solid victories.


Sherk.
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This fight boils down to whether or not BJ is taking it seriously, in shape and motivated BJ won't be stopped, but there's a good chance that after his victory over Stevenson he let the belt go to his head and he's going to gas early on and give the fight to Sherk. Sherk creates an awkward dilema that most people can't deal with, his compct frame with that much muscle packed onto it, and his insane conditioning outlasts anyone else in that weight class.

BJ is nothing more than a cocky little rich kid who's never had to work a hard day in his life, just look at what happened to Tito when he wasn't fighting to survive anymore. BJ is turning into a celebrity and you know that's going to his head.
History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid.
--Dwight D. Eisenhower

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Alright, time to move on to Ortiz v Machida.

There really isn't any bad blood between these two to make this fight as interesting as the title fight, but there are a few aspects that add something to it. It's well known that this is the last fight on Tito's contract, and with the bad blood between him and Dana I highly doubt we will ever see him in the octagon again, just look at the way the UFC turned their back on Randy. As for Lyoto, he's a standout up and comer with a big fat 0 in the loss column of his record, he holds notable wins over some big names and when he pushes the pace he is very exciting.

Lyoto is coming off a huge win over the African Assasain at UFC 79, he is an incredibly well rounded fighter with an awkward style. He has a wide, low stance, moves in and out of range at awkward angles, has great head movement which makes him near impossible to hit at times, and some of the best speed in his hands and feet in the light heavyweight division, which is definitely not short of talent. Looking at these traits any hardcore fan should be able to draw a straight line between him and his middleweight training partner, and for the rest of you I'll give you the answer!! Anderson Silva, Machida trains in Silva's camp along with Noguera, so no one can say he has a lack of talent to help him hone his skills. His resume includes wins over Rich Franklin, Stephan Bonnar, and BJ Penn.....I just finished watching his fight against Bonnar, and Stephen couldn't leave a mark on him, everytime he moved in for a strike Lyoto would make him pay for it. He has an incredibly effective counter-punching style which is becoming a trademark of his camp. Anyone who knows the big names of the MMA community will vouch for the fact that his BJJ training partner is one of the finest submission artists in the game, there is no doubt that Lyoto has a solid ground game. The two big questions surrounding Lyoto going into this fight could very well determine the outcome of this fight, first off, can Lyoto deal with Tito's physical strength and conditioning? Going the distance in a fight with the opponents Lyoto has fought up to this point can't compare to the pace that Tito can push for 3 rounds, if there is one thing that no one has ever doubted with Tito its that he comes into every fight with conditioning that rivals anyone else in the game, and his physical strength matches the conditioning. Second, can Lyoto's ground work with Noguera give him survivability against Tito's wrestling? Having a solid submission game is one thing, but one thing a lot of submission artists lack is the ability to control where the fight goes, Tito has the ability to have the upper handin this arena depending on how he comes into this fight. Lyoto may have a very good Muay Thai clinch, but is it enough to stops Tito's body locks and takedowns?

Tito on the other hand is looking to make a big statement on his way out of the UFC, a lot of people have accused him of not being the same Tito he used to be. There's two sides to that story, he seems to be less agressive but at the same time a much smarter fighter, so he's either matured greatly, or just got scared. No one can deny that Tito has the ability to be a dominant fighter, he has the skill, he just seems to lack the spirit to move in and engage that we used to see. Nowadays he waits for the perfect take down opportunity and if he can't get it he gets apprehensive and standoff-ish(yes, i just used standoff-ish in a write-up, deal with it!). One thing I will give Tito is that he asn't been nearly as bad as people accuse him of being lately, MMA fans just don't see it because they are insanely short sighted, MMA fans could see the two top fighters in the game fight a close match to the end and when one comes out on top they will completely overlook that fact that they were defeated by the #1 fighter and say, wow he lost, he sucks. Looking back at Tito's last two fights, in his re-match with Chuck he fought a solid boxing match for three rounds before he was stopped, believe it or not Tito actually outscored Chuck in one of those rounds, he has a solid standup game when he puts a lot of focus on it, only issue is, as technical as he can box, he doesn't throw for the knockout, he never puts in moe than enough to open up for a takedown. In his fight against Rashad, he outscored Rashad all the way through that fight until the end of the third round, had it not been for a point taken away due to a penalty that fight was easily his, despite his looking slow late in the third. It's well known that Tito also has some of the best wrestling skills in the weight class, unfortunately for him though, it's too well known, every opponent he's had in the last 3 years has honed their takedown defense and given him a hard time. So the questions surrounding Tito in this fight, first off, has he taken this fight seriously, will he come into this fight in the same kind of shape he was in when he squared up against Chuck? And which Tito will we see, the old Tito who will get in your face and exchange on the feet til a takedown opportunity presents itself, or the Tito who throws a few punches here and there waiting for a takedown opportunity to slap him in the face so he can make a desperation shot from the outside?

Likely scenario for this fight, Tito comes out strong in the first, scores a solid takedown or two and forces Lyoto to adjust his distance while waiting for opportunities to stirke. If Lyoto survives the initial onslaught he will find his distance and start stuffing takedowns and making Tito pays for taking those shots from the outside, as Tito loses confidence because he can't get the takedown Lyoto will start to set the pace of the fight and make Tito nervous. The big question is whether or not Lyoto will be able to shift the fight in his favor soon enough to find an opening to finish Tito and not let this fight go to the judges. As for finishing Tito, honestly apart from Tito's two losses early in his career when he was new to the sport and didn't reall have a well-rounded arsenal the only person who has ever decisively finished Tito has been Chuck, and if you ook closely at those to TKOs, Tito wasn't knocked out, you could see the look in his eye, he knew he had no answer to the shots he was taking and basically let himself go down to get out of the fight. Tito has never been knocked out, even Chuck will admit that Tito is one of the toughest guys in the sport, Randy had him in a devastating position and couldn't finish him. So Lyoto is going to have to push himself to a new level, which is one thing he seems to do in every fight. As much as I like Lyoto going into this fight, there's always that slim chance that Tito will ditch that harpee of a girlfriend that's sucking the life out of him and come out like the Tito of old, I doubt it, but it would be fun. So for you bettin folks out there, I'd recommend Machida, unless you like to take huge risks for the big payoff, as for me, I've always had a soft spot for Tito so I'll be cheering for him just because its his last fight in the octagon and we very well may never see him again once Jenna takes him home and sucks the rest of his blood out.
History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid.
--Dwight D. Eisenhower

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Dude...I'm startin' to worry about your obsession with sweaty guys rasslin around and grabbin each other....

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I prefer greased up guys over sweaty guys any day:P

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How've ya been, man?



Trying to figure out how its possible for life to exist in this hell hole to which I have been assigned:P this place is completely empty when it comes to women to date, and to top it off, there's only one hot asain in this town, I found her, she's a nurse....and I luv herB|:P
History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid.
--Dwight D. Eisenhower

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Just based on their last two fights, I would have to say that Lyoto should win....but being that it is his last fight, I think that Tito just might pull this one off. (I hope.) This one I have to think about...:)
Excuse me but what about Wanderlei & Jardine??? S'okay...I already picked Wanderlei. I'm looking forward to this match. It's gonna be mean and hopefully BRUTAL!!:D

~Built for Abuse
www.skydivethefarm.com

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Trying to figure out how its possible for life to exist in this hell hole to which I have been assigned... this place is completely empty when it comes to women to date



What, there's not enough college girls in the Springs to suit you?

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there's only one hot asain in this town, I found her, she's a nurse....and I luv her



So...why are you griping about the dating situation, again? :P
Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

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What, there's not enough college girls in the Springs to suit you?

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springs, I PCS'ed 2 months ago!!! It was time for me to move on after I got home from Iraq, I'm in Yuma now.

And trust me, the dating scene here sucks!! I haven't met the asian nurse yet, just saw here when I was at a doctors appointment, I'll talk to her when I go back in a few weeks;)

History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid.
--Dwight D. Eisenhower

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BJPenn is going to walk through Sherk worse then Matt Hughes ran through him. Machida is going to own Tito so quick and thorough, there will be no question that Machida and Alves must meet. Silva will punish Jardine. I've got bets on them.

You're always the starter in your own life!

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BJPenn is going to walk through Sherk worse then Matt Hughes ran through him.
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Not saying that Penn isn't a good bet, but no one has ever walked through Sherk, he held his own against Hughes, even controled the position once or twice in that fight.

History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid.
--Dwight D. Eisenhower

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Ah, didn't realized you'd pulled up stakes.... best of luck with the nurse!

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I'm really hopin I'll catch her on her lunch break next time and get to watch her eat a banana, that would just make my year :P

History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid.
--Dwight D. Eisenhower

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Machida is going to own Tito so quick and thorough, there will be no question that Machida and Alves must meet.



Alright, I gave it some thought. Both fighters are well rounded having a strong game whether standing up or on the ground. Tito is a good fighter no doubt about it, but he isn't doing his homework of late. If he had, he would of finished Rashad in round 1. Machida adapts to his opponents' skills, he goes in the ring with a game plan (and the guy is HOT! :P). I love watching him fight.

It's obvious Tito doesn't have his heart in UFC any more but I think he has respect for the sport. With that said, I think he will approach this fight differently because Machida IS a challenge. I think he can still win if he puts his mind into it. So, I'm going to call Tito on this matchup.

He better fucking win...I got money on this one! :P
~Built for Abuse
www.skydivethefarm.com

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You know after thinking abou this match up some more there is something that keeps sticking out in my mind, like I mentioned before Machida has never fought someone as physical as Ortiz, and Machida isn't that big of a light heavyweight anyways. On any given day Tito probably has 20+ pounds on Machida, and in a fight where controlling the position of the fight can mean the difference between winning and losing physical strength can be the defining factor. You can put your money on the fact that Machida will end up on his back in the first, and his ability to weather Tito's storm is going to determine if this fight ends up in his favor.
History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid.
--Dwight D. Eisenhower

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The reason I have so much faith in Machida is his pedigree. Undefeated in 12 fights, he destroyed Rich Franklin (KO 2nd round) Stephan Bonnar (1st round/cut) and has never been made to look bad. My nickname for him is "Mr. Perfect." As styles go, he's a very defensive fighter. When he faced Sokodjou in UFC 79 (arm triangle choke 2nd rd.) he completely thwarted a seasoned Judo champions' advances (Sokodou US 2000 Open Winner.) When Tito goes to close he's going to get popped and kicked. Machida keeps his range and doesn't allow his opponents to crowd him -- Tito's strategy to ground-n-pound. Also, he's a "heads up" fighter, who doesn't blink, even during intense exchanges. In short, when the gap closes Machida stays on top -- how else would he defeat Michael the "Black Sniper" MacDonald, one of the premier kickboxers in K1?
To answer another post, in regards to BJ Penn and Sherk, Penn brings the "intangibles" to this fight with Sherk. Sherk is a one dimensional ground-n-pound. Penn is an excellent striker, quick submissions expert and, in the first round of the fight - look out! I think he's going bring some surprises for Sherk. Sherk's only road to victory is to keep Penn down and spank him. Penn brings a smorgasboard of whoopass to the Octagon.
I guess we'll have to wait til May 24th when the ref says, "Fight!"

You're always the starter in your own life!

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Machida keeps his range and doesn't allow his opponents to crowd him -- Tito's strategy to ground-n-pound. Also, he's a "heads up" fighter, who doesn't blink, even during intense exchanges.
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You are 100% correct in your assessment of Machida's skills, he's great at keeping his range and picking his shots from the outside as his opponent makes mistakes. However, one thing that hasn't been tested, his ability to withstand constant pressure, Machida is great at keeping the fight where he wants it when his opponent sets their stance and gets ready to attack, I'll give him that any day. Tito one the other hand, can bring a pace that he has never seen in a fight before, I won't go sso far as to say that Machida will crumble, but I will say that he has never been tested against someone who can keep the pace and wear someone down like Ortiz can. If Tito comes out agressive in this fight like the Tito of old, he will keep Lyoto on his heels the whole fight and could present a very awkward dilema, but if we see the Tito that a lot of people are expecting, who comes out strong in the first and then seems to lose his self confidence and backs down easily, this fight will definitely shift in favor of Machida. Bottom line in this matchup is that Ortiz has the power to control how this fight unfolds, so long as he's willing to cross the line and take a few punches.

History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid.
--Dwight D. Eisenhower

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Sadly, he didn't...:(

By the way, are you jealous that we got to watch it LIVE in Vegas!?!?!? I'm still giddy just thinking about it. We saw Chuck Liddell, Clay Guida, and Frank Mir. I was surprised there weren't many of the other big name fighters there. Saw The Rock! Fuck, that man is HOT!! Oh, and Shaq (huge mofo!), Chris Angel, and David Spade. Yes, I was star struck...what can I say. :P

Back to the fight...what did you think about the knockout from Wanderlei. Holy shit, you should have seen/heard the crowd! Poor Jardine was completely out for a good 4-5 minutes. That was fucking insane!! :o

~Built for Abuse
www.skydivethefarm.com

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