stoneycase 0 #1 February 14, 2006 If any of you are like me, you're focused on purchasing/owning a home in the next few years. As a result, I'm always looking out and listening for new information, new tools, etc. A coworker of mine showed me this site: www.zillow.com It's rather interesting, and looks to be something entirely unique. It's basically a "free valuation" tool that lets you type in an address and bring up the residence on google maps. Already been done before, right? Wrong. It slaps an estimate on the address you provided and displays *all* the estimates for the homes in the surronding area. Pretty crazy, if you ask me. I can type in almost any address and get a good idea of the home's value, and the value of the houses in the surrounding area(s). Not something easily accomplished say, 5 to 7 years ago. Of course it has it's limits, and it's worthwhile to spend some time reading their FAQ to understand how estimates are calculated: http://www.zillow.com/howto/Zestimate.z So what do you all think? Have you ever seen any tool like this available for free? Any of you in the industry? I know you have tools like this, what are your thoughts on making this information widely available to the public? As a consumer, I'm all for it. The more information I can have, the better.Does whisky count as beer? - Homer There's no justice like angry mob justice. - Skinner Be careful. There's a limited future in low pulls - JohnMitchell Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jumpah 0 #2 February 14, 2006 As to having it wildly available: Property value and who owns that property is public information, since property value is used in determining tax rate. My town even has a dedicated computer kiosk where you can look up every bit of tax information about each home. All this website does is centralize that free data into a spiffy interface, which is useful. What something is worth is what people are willing to pay for it and I think only a local realtor is suited to know this information with any authority, as they have a handle on events that could change a particular value, such as if next year a particular house is going to have a fresh new sewage treatment plant as a neighbor. I'm also curious with how they'll deal with townships that intentionally value a home at less than market value. My town used to do only like 70% of the market value (yea!) and only recently moved it to 100% (anger!). Also, does a particular town do assessments yearly, or longer? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
narcimund 0 #3 February 14, 2006 I sold a house (FSBO) 6 months ago. zillow.com reports that house's value within 1% of the price I sold it for. HOWEVER... * It thinks my house is 3br/1ba when it's really 4br/2ba. * It thinks my house is 1500 sq. ft when it's really 2000 sq. ft. * It says that 6 months ago my house was worth 22% LESS than I sold it for then. In other words, if I'd listened to zillow.com's valuation when I sold, I would have shortchanged myself by many tens of thousands of dollars. First Class Citizen Twice Over Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stoneycase 0 #4 February 14, 2006 Well of course the property value and ownership is public info (assessors's office), but honestly, how easily is that information accessed? Probably not as easy for everyone as it may be for you with the kiosk. Also, if you look more at their FAQ, and specifically how the estimate is created you'll see that they are actually taking into account a lot *more* than just the home's "value" when they calculate the "zestimate". I'm not trying to say their math/stats are superior, I'm just saying their estimate takes into account additional variables:(from their site) "When our statisticians developed the model to determine home values, they explored how homes in certain areas were similar (i.e., number of bedrooms and baths, and a myriad of other details) and then looked at the relationships between actual sale prices and those home details. These relationships form a pattern, and they used that pattern to develop a model to come up with a market value for a home." I'd have to disagree with you on the local realtor. Personally, I've always looked at the realtors (even my friends) as sales people first. Their "information" is actually just marketing, IMO. Of course they have access to info the general public may not have immediately (the sewage plant is a good example, or say school constructions) but overall, their use of the information is primarily focused on making transactions, not on providing unbiased information to consumers. BTW, I think your question is pretty much answered in their FAQ. The snippit I posted kinda sums it up: the zestimate is == assessor's office. The townships you speak of would probably see relatively accurate value's displayed (+/- 10%) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stoneycase 0 #5 February 14, 2006 I know the FAQ requires more reading, so here's a cut/paste for you: It's true, we've never been to your house, never seen your expertise with colors and landscaping. Only you know those things. So we've given you a way to consider them in calculating a home's value. Use the "Value Any Home" search, then when you find a home, click on "Refine value of this home." The My Zestimator tool will walk you through the steps to adjust your valuation. ... We get this information from the tax assessor in your county so their records may not be up-to-date. To change the details about a home, or the tax value or assessment figure, you'll need to contact your county assessor's office. But not to worry — in the meantime, you can use the My Zestimator tool to calculate your home value with the correct information. BD/BA, Sq footage can all be changed using their tool. If you'd used Zillow correctly, you could've adjusted the displayed estimate. Within 1%, that's pretty damn close...Does whisky count as beer? - Homer There's no justice like angry mob justice. - Skinner Be careful. There's a limited future in low pulls - JohnMitchell Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
narcimund 0 #6 February 14, 2006 QuoteWithin 1%, that's pretty damn close... Yes, but that'S 6 months later when appreciation is said to have been 22%. In other words, they're off by ~21% I mentioned the 1% figure only to show that APPARENT accuracy can actually result in HUGE errors. First Class Citizen Twice Over Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhreeZone 15 #7 February 14, 2006 Site looks nice, but its formula is WAY off. I bought a house in October and paid about 10k less then what it estimates my house to be at. It may be useful to see the estimates in an area, but don't trust its values too much.Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PLFXpert 0 #8 February 14, 2006 I did mine. Was pretty close (if not dead-on) accurate. It's funny to me when people ask "So what did you pay for your home, if you don't mind me asking?" b/c it's none of your damn business, in my opinion, and you can just look it up on the property tax scrolls--who the actual owner is and what the purchase price was---if you're so interested. I was vindicated recently by looking up a friend of mine's residence. She was always bragging about her newly acquired things and how much $$$ she was making. I found out her husband's parent's were the "owners" of the property she worked so hard to buy herself. Ha! I wouldn't tell her I know, though. Some people need to have that "better than you" feeling.Paint me in a corner, but my color comes back. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stoneycase 0 #9 February 14, 2006 ok, i see most of what i wrote has fallen on deaf ears. thanks for looking though fellas.Does whisky count as beer? - Homer There's no justice like angry mob justice. - Skinner Be careful. There's a limited future in low pulls - JohnMitchell Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhreeZone 15 #10 February 14, 2006 No, its just that they are using flawed formulas. You'd think that since my county has the information on their website and its in public databases that within 5 months of me closing they might have updated their databases with the latest sales in my area. I compared the direct values they listed the recent sales at on my street vs what the taxes are showing and they over valued every single "recent" transaction. Same times as little as 1k but a few were 8-11k off. Thats 7-8% wrong value.Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
narcimund 0 #11 February 14, 2006 Quoteok, i see most of what i wrote has fallen on deaf ears. thanks for looking though fellas. What you've written seems to boil down to the fact that this website gives terrible estimates because it gets flawed data. I'm sorry it doesn't have a better source of data but the bottom line is until it gets one the estimates are still terrible. First Class Citizen Twice Over Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kid_Icarus 0 #12 February 14, 2006 the homes in my area, according to this are inflated by over $1,000,000!!!! Not even close ________________________________________ "What What..... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
narcimund 0 #13 February 14, 2006 QuoteHave you ever seen any tool like this available for free? Actually, yes. There used to be several websites that did this exact same thing (although there weren't as graphically fancy) about 5 years ago. They all shut down for some reason. It's nice that a new one's appeared, but its math is just as useless. Sometimes more information is NOT better -- when it's bad information. First Class Citizen Twice Over Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wmw999 2,150 #14 February 14, 2006 On the other hand, it's pretty close for where I live. But, prices have been reasonably stable for quite awhile there -- it's both an advantage and a disadvantage of living in Houston. Not incredibly close, but if I were looking to move to a new area, I might consider this to be another source of information about housing prices. Wendy W.There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stoneycase 0 #15 February 14, 2006 7-8% off...the site readily advertises they are +/-10% and the values are NOT appraisals. you all let me know when you find that perfect information/website out there... i honestly can't believe you all are bashing the hell out of this, but go figure...i should've put a HUGE disclaimer with the words directly from their FAQ. i didn't realize that everyone would type in an address and think the value displayed was 100% accurate within 1/10th of a cent...sheesh. but tell me, how quickly can YOU see the "approximate value" of ALL the homes in your NEIGHBORHOOD without a site like this? half an hour for a trip to the assessor's office? an hour? a week while you wait for a report back from the realtor? seems to me like you can give zillow their 10%, and maybe even then some, considering the amount of information they are providing, your ability to customize that information, and the speed at which it is being provided to you. JMHO.Does whisky count as beer? - Homer There's no justice like angry mob justice. - Skinner Be careful. There's a limited future in low pulls - JohnMitchell Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
narcimund 0 #16 February 14, 2006 Quoteseems to me like you can give zillow their 10%, and maybe even then some, considering the amount of information they are providing What's the value of a huge quantity of quickly delivered incorrect and unreliable numbers? First Class Citizen Twice Over Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stoneycase 0 #17 February 14, 2006 your idea of incorrect and unreliable are not the same as mine. no sense debating the point with you. but if i can trouble you to read a bit further, i'd like to show you that the site owners understand the inherent problems of what they're doing, and imho, they're doing a rather decent job of publicizing potential problems and providing plenty of info about how to overcome them or at least identify them factor them in... My Zestimate is too low — or too high. What gives? The Zestimate is really a starting point in figuring out the true value of a house. A variety of things can affect the accuracy of the Zestimate. For example, the number of transactions in a geographic area affects how much we know about prevailing market values of homes there. The more transactions, the more data and the more accurate the Zestimate will be. Also, we use public data for house attributes, and some areas report more data than others. The more attributes we know about homes in an area (including yours), the better the Zestimate. To correct for this, we offer a tool called My Zestimator™ that allows you to adjust the Zestimate according to specifics about a home. and here is where they provide a table that shows how well the "data coverage" is for each area (and therefore you can determine how accurate the zestimate will likely be, hint more stars = more accurate) coverage: http://www.zillow.com/howto/DataCoverageZestimateAccuracy.z out of curiousity, how many stars on the area you are looking at? (lets leave median error out for a moment)Does whisky count as beer? - Homer There's no justice like angry mob justice. - Skinner Be careful. There's a limited future in low pulls - JohnMitchell Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
narcimund 0 #18 February 14, 2006 Quoteout of curiousity, how many stars on the area you are looking at? (lets leave median error out for a moment) 4 stars. They claim about 75% are within 10%. Wow. Can you imagine anything more useless? Go to zillow.com and get a number that 1 out of 4 times is going to be off by more than 10%. For a $300,000 house, that means you've got a 25% chance of being off by more than $30,000. I'd hate to have shortchanged myself out of $30,000 or $40,000 or who knows how much. Again, zillow.com is supplying a HUGE quantity of nearly random numbers very quickly. And to make it worse, those numbers are presented with APPARENT accuracy. If it said, "Approximately $300,000" that's one thing but when it says, "$301,187" one is inclined to believe it came up with something significant. By the way, do you work for this website? First Class Citizen Twice Over Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jumpah 0 #19 February 14, 2006 Quotei honestly can't believe you all are bashing the hell out of this, but go figure... I don't think folks are bashing you...I'm not, fyi. We're just commenting on the website. Quoteseems to me like you can give zillow their 10%, and maybe even then some, Hell no! On a $500,000 home, thats a big chunk of money swaying one way or the other. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tumbler 0 #20 February 14, 2006 It was more than 250k off on my home... Not even in the ballpark. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stoneycase 0 #21 February 14, 2006 Ugh, well obviously that's not good. But to make the comparison that you are "shorting" yourself out of money by looking at the estimate is ridiculous. It's a freaking estimate. e-s-t-i-m-a-t-e. You seem to be implying that everyone will look at this and offer/buy for the value or sell/transfer on the penny, and/or use it to request a loan. Give me a break...Also in their defense they are displaying this potential error to you. They aren't hiding it. Take issue with the number fine, but to outright dismiss the site because YOUR estimate is low/high is making the assumption that all 60M home estimates will be wrong because of 1 (or a few, read: statistically insignificant) value. Your comment that they are displaying "nearly random numbers" is patently false. To me, it shows that you really haven't spent any time reading what I've wrote, or any of the additional information contained at the site. Which is fine, you don't have to. Your opinion is your opinion. Of course I tend to listen to, and be persuaded by opinions grounded in fact and large amounts of evidence. Not so much for the reverse. No, I do not work for them. Never have. Don't even know the owners. Nice try though! It's too bad that you want perfect for free. Guess you'll get to keep waiting...Does whisky count as beer? - Homer There's no justice like angry mob justice. - Skinner Be careful. There's a limited future in low pulls - JohnMitchell Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
narcimund 0 #22 February 14, 2006 QuoteNo, I do not work for them. Never have. Don't even know the owners. Nice try though! They should hire you. You have the marketing patter down and you obviously feel personally attached to this website already. First Class Citizen Twice Over Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stoneycase 0 #23 February 14, 2006 I disagree. I'd say I have the ability to understand margin for error, while you do not. You seem to think the site should be right on, well below +/-10%. To me that's ridiculous, given the site is free and the amount of information is quite substantial(not to mention the fact that they are using assessor's office info in their calculations, how correct is that info for everyone??). You can point and argue all you want about how your value is off, but you and I both know, that your sample size of 1 value is no kind of indicator of the overall accuracy of the site. I also know that any user of this site has the ability to change and update the zestimate based on any "unique" information they have regarding their home (renovations, remodels, extensions, etc). Where else can you see how adding a BD to your 3/2 will affect the overall home value? Nvm, I'm sure you're answer will be: It doesn't matter, the values are all wrong. Ironically, I probably feel like you do in the same-sex marriage thread: I'm running my head against a brick wall that's hell bent on not listening, no matter the information I put forward.Does whisky count as beer? - Homer There's no justice like angry mob justice. - Skinner Be careful. There's a limited future in low pulls - JohnMitchell Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SarahC07 0 #24 February 14, 2006 Not too unique, I don't think. If I do remember correctly, many counties in Texas (I'm not sure about other states) have such information posted on the internet in the form of a search engine as well. You can search by last name or property address. I know Harris County (Houston) has one. www.hcad.org (Harris County Appraisal District) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
simplyputsi 0 #25 February 14, 2006 Apparently I paid almost $100,000 more than my house is worth and so did anybody else around me. I'd say it doesn't work, at least not for me.Skymama's #2 stalker - Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
