base698
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Posts posted by base698
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On 9/22/2021 at 8:27 AM, wmw999 said:Tô go along with that are the people who died early in the pandemic who weren’t classified as Covid because they died at home, and their authorities assumed all Covid deaths were in hospitals. They probably don’t balance out, but error is rarely only in one direction.
It’s nearly always safer to ascribe problems to error than to conspiracy.
Wendy P.https://sanjosespotlight.com/santa-clara-county-revises-total-covid-deaths-by-over-20/
In addition in overzealous use of ventilators they were basically executing people early in the pandemic before treating like other respiratory disease with oxygen and steroids. Treatment has improved dramatically.
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1 hour ago, billvon said:It does protect the people who get it. But like everything else, from airbags to parachutes to getting an Uber when you are drunk, it's not 100%.
You haven't been doing much research if you think that's propaganda.
Aug. 16, 2021 -- The number of children hospitalized with COVID-19 in the U.S. hit a record high on Saturday, with more than 1,900 kids in hospitals. . . .
The number of newly hospitalized COVID-19 patients for ages 18-49 also hit record highs this week. A fifth of the nation’s hospitalizations are in Florida, where the number of COVID-19 patients hit a record high of 16,100 on Saturday. More than 90% of the state’s intensive care unit beds are filled.
More than 90% of the ICU beds in Texas are full as well. On Friday, there were no pediatric ICU beds available in Dallas or the 19 surrounding counties, which means that young patients would be transported father away for care — even Oklahoma City.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210816/u-s-reports-record-covid-hospitalizations-of-children
You have three choices here.
1) Vaccinate no one; let millions die. Mutations are fairly high since there's so much disease, and each replication is an opportunity to mutate.
2) Vaccinate everyone; save millions. Mutations are lower but still significant, since there is now selective pressure (but far fewer replications.)
3) Vaccinate about half the people. This is the highest possible mutation rate. Not only do you have a huge reservoir of disease, you ALSO have selective pressure. If you want new strains, this is what you do.Which scenario do you prefer?
Graph below shows cases per 100k for < 5 and 5-17. There was a spike but it doesn't seem that much different than the previous wave. 2.3 to 2.6 per 100k. Given 77 million kids that comes to 2000 hospitalized kids if every one of them were infected with covid at the same time.
And again I'm being charitable. I'm assuming all under 17 at the higher hospitalization rate of 2.6. also assuming hospitalization means with covid and not broken arm then tests while treated (which has and does happen) as alluded to above by someone else.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/covid19_3.html
Also note the common propaganda technique here :
“That means if your child’s in a car wreck, if your child has a congenital heart defect or something and needs an ICU bed, or more likely, if they have COVID and need an ICU bed, we don’t have one,” Clay Jenkins, a Dallas County judge, said on Friday."
Why quote a Dallas county judge and not someone in the hospital?
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2 hours ago, kallend said:The unvaccinated endanger both themselves and other members of the general public too.
A vaccine so good it doesn't protect the people who get it.
Interested in Oofscience rebuttal of leaky vaccines not being the cause of evolution in virus due to selection pressures.
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1 hour ago, TriGirl said:Bill, you may recall that during most of 2020 the conventional wisdom (supported by the studies) indicated that young people were much less likely to suffer effects of COVID. Now we have kids in ICUs and dying just about as readily as adults.
I've not seen this anywhere but the worst of all propaganda equating kids contracting covid with being equal to ICU visits.
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4 hours ago, kallend said:And another Herman Cain winner:
Looks healthy.
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3 hours ago, nwt said:So you just assumed two different things were the same for no other reason than it was convenient. You can't seriously think this is a reasonable approach.
It's a little more complicated. I'd argue skydiving is much more dangerous than we would like to think since incident reports aren't required for non fatals. Long covid comes up a lot, rather than dismiss it I thought I'd assume it was at least as bad as the disfigurement and suicides from life changing injuries sustained skydiving.
I think that's reasonable and fair yes. The alternative response being, Hur dur muh long covid. Otherwise maybe you can argue that long covid is somehow more prevalent and/or worse than skydivers who've had limbs amputated, brain damaged or ended up as quadriplegic.
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4 minutes ago, olofscience said:Are those stats with or without lockdowns?
For a proper bayesian analysis you should really calculate P(death | covid-positive & age group).
Edit: if you go to r/HermanCainAward it's full of people who kept posting how their chance of dying was << 1%
I think it is counting contracting covid and death rate. If it wasn't it would be orders of magnitude lower.
Haven't yet seen anyone on HermanCainAwards that should have been unvaccinated. If you find one that is smaller than fat bastard from Austin Powers let me know.
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30 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:Death is not necessarily the worst outcome, nor is it binary. The long term effects of COVID and those suffering from ongoing effects of a covid infection need to be included. Plus, I am tired of seeing all the relatives of idiots asking for money.
Yeah and all the paralyzed, brain damaged, and amputees from skydiving don't show up in fatal stats. I treated those outcomes as constant for covid and skydiving.
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5 hours ago, winsor said:I guess my objection to the vaccine is that it is pretty much the only treatment given much consideration. Of course there is the use of masks and otherwise limiting transmission, but precious little attention is paid to other prophylaxis and treatment.
When anyone touts a Single Input-Single Output Closed Form solution to a complex problem, it raises flags. Getting even a Jordan Form (first derivative) solution to a multi-parameter LINEAR system is generally daunting, and settling on an SISO approach to a complex nonlinear system suggests intellectual laziness.
I got vaccinated at the first opportunity, but have no reason to view it as a panacea. Two long time friends had severe thrombosis issues five days after receiving the Moderna vaccine, one of them was revived (and is still undead), one died.
If the vaccine is but one arrow in your quiver, fine. If you're betting the ranch that the vaccine is all that is needed to bring COVID-19 to heel, good luck with that.
BSBD,
Winsor
I only know of one covid fatality, mother in law of an employee. My wife's employee was hospitalized by the Pfizer vax. Heart issues days after it was given. All of it is rare. If I didnt look at Reddit I wouldn't know anyone had died of covid or the vaccine.
According to this:
https://mobile.twitter.com/kerpen/status/1439958258727407621/photo/1
My age group (40) has 34 in 100k fatality rate. Children under 17: 1 in 100k. At 8 micromorts per jump skydiving hits 3400 micromorts at 425 jumps.
For someone under 20 it's like doing 8 skydives. 40 is the same as doing 425 skydives. At 50 covid is more like doing 1300 skydives.
Risk profile everyone here seems to be really uncomfortable.
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Pretty juicy stuff.
"There isn't data to be convince my nurses refusing the vaccine are safer with the vaccine than without"
"70x risk of heart attack"
"We have to kill 2 people with the vaccine to save 1"
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8 minutes ago, nwt said:Some may regard it as invasive, but those people are wrong. The actual Nazis did actually invasive things to those they called untermensch, and they bear no relation to this vaccine.
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3 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:Hi base,
Re: Nice chatting with such an asshole.
I think you are in violation of the rules here.
Mods?????
Jerry Baumchen
I've been cordial to everyone, can't really say the same about most of you.
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33 minutes ago, kallend said:Suggest you ask for your tuition money back, since you can't compound a 40% reduction/month over 6 months and figure out the result is nonsensical. Some scientist!
The study I saw, which to be fair I can't find was 40% per month, at the 3rd month there was basically no detectable antibodies in the blood.
The 8 month, 5 month booster recommendation definitely seems to imply it's less effective than they thought (and not just from the variants).
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21 hours ago, headoverheels said:100LL will no longer be available at my local airport. Not sure of the date, just been decided. Factions have been trying to get rid of the airport for decades.
Guess you'll have to upgrade to a Turbine :)
Interestingly, someone that lives in the hangar at my local airport had a kid about a year ago. The kid had toxic levels of lead in one of her recent checkups. They immediately moved.
Kids obviously put a lot of stuff in their mouth and I assume tons of 100LL dust near GA airports. Anyone aware of studies about flying GA and it's effects? Not just living near the airport?
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13 minutes ago, olofscience said:Even though he had no idea what he was talking about, Brent at least mentioned something not usually taught in high school...Krebs cycle lol
Was in my college biochem class. You had to draw the whole thing in one of the tests, not just be aware of it.
https://www.science.widener.edu/~nagengast/BCH452syllabusS08.pdf
Lab that has TCA right there, how about that?!
Nice chatting with such an asshole.
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3 hours ago, olofscience said:Given that you don't seem to have any idea how the vaccine works, the lack of trust is understandable. It's hard to trust something you don't understand.
I feel sorry that it seems to be beyond your ability to understand it, and that you lack more intelligent friends or family who do. Must be scary, no wonder you're angry.
I had a 4.0 in biochem so I kind of assume the years of drawing the Krebs cycle and enzyme reactions is a bit higher than average understanding of the mechanics.
I'll just make up something about you: Must be comforting to have such blind trust in institutions that have killed millions. I bet you sleep really soundly.
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On 8/28/2021 at 4:40 PM, gowlerk said:We are going to make it more and more difficult for you to function as a full member of society until you take on the responsibility of a full member of society.
Already seeing a huge reduction in reservations at restaurants that were already hurting. Someone in your party that forgot their card? Guess we can't eat here. Gyms and restaurants just had the worst year ever.
Any friction with customers causes a drop off. My prediction would be their is some pushback from the already hurting businesses that are going to lose 50% of their customer base.
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3 hours ago, olofscience said:They also intentionally mix up:
- effectiveness against symptomatic infection
- effectiveness against hospitalization
- effectiveness against death
Just for propaganda effect (or inability to hold more than 1 number in their head)
We started at herd immunity then shifted to the idea it's somehow just about hospitalization and death. I remain skeptical.
The cheerleading and trust for an industry that killed 500,000 people of all ages with safe and non-addictive Oxy and routinely hides and misleads with results to make a little more profit as people die is interesting.
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2 hours ago, kallend said:Sorry, but that figure is nonsense.
A loss of 40% per month over 6 months would mean a total loss of over 95%.
The experience of millions of people in the USA and Europe shows that this is just not so.
Can't find the paper, but this shows 16% effective if vaccinated in Jan. The Biden recommendation of booster at 5 months is on account of the reduction of effectiveness.
Preliminary data published by the Israeli government in July showed the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was just 16% effective against symptomatic infection for people who had received two doses in January. For people who had been fully vaccinated by April, the vaccine was 79% effective against symptomatic infection, suggesting that immunity gained through immunization depletes over time.
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4 minutes ago, gowlerk said:None of where you going makes sense at all. So once again I will say do what you want but understand that you will be under more and more pressure to get vaccinated. We will make an offer that most people can't refuse.
Yeah I'm sure you will. Whatever authoritarian measures give greater profits to Pfizer and big sugar and make you feel safer.
Quote“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.”
― C. S. Lewis -
3 minutes ago, olofscience said:I'm actually still stumped on what a "sterilizing" vaccine would be - would that be injecting/inhaling bleach or shining UV light (where the sun don't shine) as Trump suggested?
Sterilizing immunity is a pretty common term. I've seen sterilizing vaccine used to imply that. It was pretty clear from the link what was meant.
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1 hour ago, gowlerk said:I’m sure you are fully qualified to make assertions and come to conclusions about vaccine effectiveness based on some information you acquired. However I will go with the recommendation of the best medical advice available. And further I will point out that essentially everyone in the hospital or dying from the virus is from the unvaccinated population.
Every data source I've seen that says this is including January to present. The vaccine wasn't widely available until April and cases were already falling in February. I don't think you can say either way. There are geographical examples (UK and Israel) that have vaccinated individuals neck and neck with unvaccinated. Luckily, like with regular Covid hospitalizations, they skew way older.
52 minutes ago, billvon said:You may still die, but it's way lower risk than the anti-vaxxer who decided that vitamin C and ivermectin was the perfect defense.
Vitamin D :) Seriously though I never mentioned either. You're better off being in shape, n95, not going to bars and high traffic indoor events than taking the vaccine.
1 hour ago, Baksteen said:The longer the virus is allowed to run unchecked, the more chance of mutations.
The more mutations, the more chance of a strain eventually popping up which lowers the vaccine efficacy even further.
This is actually more true in non-sterilizing vaccines. Organisms (if you count virus as such) respond to selection pressure. Vaccines that don't kill it mean more mutations. https://www.newsweek.com/leaky-vaccines-may-create-stronger-viruses-357575
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On 8/28/2021 at 4:40 PM, gowlerk said:The more people that are vaccinated the sooner the pandemic becomes endemic and under control. Vaccine mandates are not about the individuals, they are about the herd.
The vaccines currently seem to lose 40% effectiveness a month (Israel studies) [1]. Boosters are largely acknowledged as required at 5 months. There is no testing for boosters past the second dose. We know second dose is bad, maybe third and forth will be even worse and has ill effects? Is your intent to mandate a Pfizer subscription every three months?
On 8/28/2021 at 9:55 AM, billvon said:Just "be in good shape" because you think that's better than vaccination? You might end up as one of those stories in the news about what not to do.
Like skydiving, don't swoop, practice your emergency procedures and do canopy drills. You may still die, but overall it's way lower risk than the 400 jump wonder on a crossbraced canopy his first season. There are anecdotes about vaccine deaths too.
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If being vaccinated does nothing to stop the spread. How do you jump to, "must be vaccinated to have a job?"
Now that the goal posts have moved from: everyone vaccinated so we can get herd immunity to get vaccinated so you don't go to the ICU. I don't follow to logic that vaccinated is somehow safer for others. N95 sure.
Want to stay out of the ICU? Lower your BMI. That not just makes covid a lightning strike rarity for complications but a host of other factors.
covid-19
in Speakers Corner
· Edited by base698
Mr Billvon, quoted the WebMD article in reference to me saying kids dying was propaganda. In that article they claim 1900 kids were hospitalized.
I think that's fishy propaganda because:
If every child had covid in the country at the same time that would only equate to 2000 hospitalized kids based on the quoted CDC data above.
Dude they quoted about kids being sent to Oklahoma was a judge, and not at anyway affiliated with the hospital or public health.