base698

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Posts posted by base698

  1. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-021-00779-5

    "Life finds a way"

    Quote

    Collectively, our results suggest that the SARS-CoV-2 variant A.30 can evade control by vaccine-induced antibodies and might show an increased capacity to enter cells in a cathepsin L-dependent manner, which might particularly aid in the extrapulmonary spread. As a consequence, the potential spread of the A.30 variant warrants close monitoring and rapid installment of countermeasures.

    Who could have predicted that?

     

  3. · Edited by base698

    3 hours ago, nwt said:

    It gets you 67 in 100k

    Yeah woops.  Missed a zero.  Good catch.  

     

    Anyone know what the ratio of hospitalized to death is?  Iirc it was something like 10x.

  4. 2 minutes ago, kallend said:

    Is that a convoluted way of admitting you were wrong?

    I personally would not choose or fret over  < 100 in 100k risk between two options. 

    Second I have not seen anything stating hospitalization rate exceeds 2 in 100k for under 18.  At the worst rate.  If you go by current CDC deaths the number under 18 is 499.  74 million kids.  .0000067 chance chance of death.  Say 100x more kids are hospitalized than die and that doesn't even get you to 37 in 100k.

    As stated hospitalization rate includes people testing positive but admitted for other things.  So therefore it's lower. 

  5. 10 hours ago, billvon said:

    So again you are making a choice between:

    Odds of hospitalization due to COVID: 37 out of 100,000
    Odds of myocarditis with vaccine: 13 out of 100,000

    Seems like a straightforward choice - at least for men ages 16-19.

    A minute risk in 100k of one of the side effects of both.  There have been other risks and there is still some unknown risk which is impossible to quantity.  Hospitalization with covid could mean someone broke their arm with a positive PCR test.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/covid-hospitalization-numbers-can-be-misleading/620062/

    But there are many COVID patients in the hospital with fairly mild symptoms, too, who have been admitted for further observation on account of their comorbidities, or because they reported feeling short of breath. Another portion of the patients in this tally are in the hospital for something unrelated to COVID, and discovered that they were infected only because they were tested upon admission.

    Even if it is actually 37 in 100k anyone worrying about a 37 in 100k risk rate should never leave the house and certainly should never have done a skydive in their life.  

  7. 10 hours ago, billvon said:

     

    So men ages 16-19 make up about 33 million people here in the US.

    Unfortunately no one breaks out hospitalizations just for the 16-19 group, but per the CDC, in the 16-17 year old subgroup of the 5-17 group the total hospitalizations (adjusted linearly for that subgroup) are 444, and in the 18-19 year old group of the 18-49 year old group the adjusted hospitalizations are 2018 total.  Which means about 74 in 100,000 in that 16-19 age group end up hospitalized.  (Yes, the former is underestimated and the latter is overestimated - but that's the best data we have.)  We will divide by 2 to capture just the men.

    So again you are making a choice between:

    Odds of hospitalization due to COVID: 37 out of 100,000
    Odds of myocarditis with vaccine: 13 out of 100,000

    Seems like a straightforward choice - at least for men ages 16-19.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/12/briefing/covid-age-risk-infection-vaccine.html

    The chart there shows under 1 in 100k for all unvaccinated up to age 50.  Way under 1 for under 19.  It's based on one location: Seattle which is obviously more healthy on average than Mississippi.

     

    > As a point of comparison, the annual risk of death for all vaccinated people over 65 in Seattle this year appears to be around 1 in 2,700. The annual average risk that an American dies in a vehicle crash is lower — about 1 in 8,500 — but not a different order of magnitude.

  8. 1 hour ago, kallend said:

    The covid virus itself causes myocarditis with those under 30 being at higher risk.

     

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v1

    Post-vaccination CAE rate was highest in young boys aged 12-15 following dose two. For boys 12-17 without medical comorbidities, the likelihood of post vaccination dose two CAE is 162.2 and 94.0/million respectively. This incidence exceeds their expected 120-day COVID-19 hospitalization rate at both moderate (August 21, 2021 rates) and high COVID-19 hospitalization incidence

     

     

     

     

  9. 39 minutes ago, billvon said:

    COVID deaths per 100k in Mississippi (worst fatality rate) - 330 
    COVID deaths per 100k in Vermont (lowest fatality rate) - 53

    So even in the best state in the US for deaths, the risk of death due to COVID is 4 times worse than the risk of myocarditis in young men.  In the worst state, it's 25 times worse.

    You're averaging over all age groups.  My number is specifically younger men 16-19.  In over 85 about 1 in 5 die of covid.  In under 18 since beginning of 2020 only 499 have died (less than 1 in 100k).

  10. On 10/11/2021 at 12:51 PM, olofscience said:

    this.

    something that keeps going over the head of mr. krebs cycle here...

    https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/10/covid-vaccine-related-myocarditis-rare-usually-mild-studies-say

    > The myocarditis risk difference between the first and second dose was 1.76 cases per 100,000 people (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33 to 2.19), or less than a 0.002% incidence. The largest difference was among male recipients 16 to 19 years, who had 13.73 cases per 100,000 people (95% CIs, 8.11 to 19.46)—but even that level amounts to only a 0.014% incidence.

     

    13 in 100k is worse than the covid rate which is why it's being suspended for those under 30 in non-pharma owned states.

    Moderator warning - BASE698 has demonstrated that he is a poor source of COVID-19 information.

     

  12. 18 minutes ago, olofscience said:

    That's like saying "the definition of a car is a diesel". Some vaccines use live virus, but the definition of vaccine is:

    image.png.0d5e8fe00805177d0ade49a58fe922ac.png

    This is a web archive snapshot for vaccine from 2016:

     a preparation of killed microorganisms, living attenuated organisms, or living fully virulent organisms that is administered to produce or artificially increase immunity to a particular disease

    https://archive.is/zrsMV

     

     

     

     

     

  13. 11 minutes ago, olofscience said:

    This statement does not make any sense. Covid-19 vaccines are vaccines

    Vaccines are really old using actual live virus. Despite mechanics of it presenting an antigen it's different enough I'd argue for a new word.

     

    2 minutes ago, billvon said:

    I see what you mean.  Yeah, to do that accurately you'd have to get the total number of kids in the US from age 0-4 and use the first data point, then get the total number from 5-17 and use the second data point.

    Harmonic mean!  It's always exciting to find uses for that in real life.  Now when my kid yells at me about what this math is for I can tell him it's for arguing on dz.com.

  14. · Edited by base698

    9 minutes ago, billvon said:

    Right.  They are not cumulative.  That's why you have to add the 0-4 hospitalizations and the 5-19 hospitalizations.  (There was a typo in my post which has since been fixed; I typed 5-1 instead of 5-17.)

    Then why are you adding them?  You could take the harmonic mean.

    2/(1/1.3)+(1/2.9) which gets the value they show, ~1.9 when selecting all under 18.

     

  15. 5 minutes ago, olofscience said:

    So it's ironic that in such exciting times with medical technology, people are turning to horse paste because of misinformation.

    It is impressive they got through the red tape of the FDA to deploy it at all.

    The horse paste is a bit of propaganda too, considering ivermectin won the Nobel prize for parasites in humans and some doctors are prescribing it.  There is the errant person using vet meds for it, but it's disingenuous.  

    That said I have no opinions on its effectiveness against covid and wouldn't take it myself.

  16. 1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

    I love the Base grade arguments: look you guy's we've already proven you don't need two parachutes, right? Who's with me?

    Straw man.  In a base environment the main danger is the wall you just jumped.  So to prevent accidents you take longer delays, run and push harder.  A reserve does nothing but add complexity and the nature of accidents doesn't make them effective for most jumps.

    If you're only jumping 3000 feet walls with a wingsuit and pulling high, take a reserve.

  17. 2 minutes ago, billvon said:

    Week ending Sep 11:

    Age 0-4: 2.9
    Age 5-1: 1.4

    2.9+1.4=4.3

    It's not cumulative.  You can say the whole population under 18 has 2.9 rate for simplicity in your favor or combine them which it appears the site does if you select under 18 only resulting in true value of 1.9.

  18. 36 minutes ago, billvon said:

    OK let's go with that.  Let's look at the numbers from a week ago, since those are the people in the hospital now.  Kids hospitalization rate is 4.3 per 100,000. 

    Where are you seeing 4.3?  I only see 2.9 now (up from 2.6) since they got more data.

  19. · Edited by base698

    11 hours ago, billvon said:

    Which CDC number are you using?  Is it an average total?  If so, then you are mixing strains.  Delta is worse, and will show higher infection/hospitalization/death rates than the long term average.

    https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/covid19_3.html

    It doesn't look like moving/long term average to me.  The child averages are the same in 2020 and now, as I have said over and over which doesn't seem to imply delta is some how worse on them.  The 65 and over crowd has way less hospitalizations which seems to imply the vaccine has some effect (or delta is less severe).  But they don't breakout cases of delta vs alpha in most of the data so who knows.

  20. On 9/23/2021 at 1:58 AM, olofscience said:

    No need, the article you posted already does that for me:

    And also:

     

    Did you even read the article?

    What I meant to post in my lack of sleep article from above: https://www.newsweek.com/leaky-vaccines-may-create-stronger-viruses-357575

    This: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7058279/ more recent article involving chicken vaccines.  Seems to say: "Better to get vaccinated because it reduces transmission".  Since going back and reading my posts I think I didn't really explain my point and I linked an article, so I'll do it here.

    Every organism responds to selection pressure.  If you plate bacteria on medium with antibiotics, increasing the concentration at each plating, in just a few generations they will be immune to the antibiotic.  All of the covid 19 vaccines are single antigen--not a vaccine.  A single spike protein received indirectly by the mRNA or directly by manufacture and growing with adenovirus.  I'm not aware of any mechanics in their construction that would prevent new virus from emerging like every other biological organism.  Maybe it's something about covid 19 that makes not subject to evolution?  Weird since it seems to have come from bats.

    You could still make the argument in favor of taking the vaccine for at risk, but what happens when 4 new variants emerge?  Then four new variants off that? What is the production/research capability to build out new mRNA vaccines for increasing number of variants?  How much GDP would you have to use?  Maybe we can stop production of everything else and just make mRNA vaccines?  Or maybe I'm missing something about the evolution of covid, virus, and vaccines.

    19 hours ago, billvon said:

    Now that's funny.

    I assume you're implying something about the NY cases?  Why did they have so many fatalities early relative to every other city and state?  My understanding it was the treatments developed.  Doctors were initially scared to just use high flow oxygen in fear it would infect everyone.  By may they knew vent first and ask questions later wasn't the best treatment method.

  21. · Edited by base698

    7 hours ago, billvon said:

    Less than half of those kids can even get vaccinated, since vaccines for under-12 kids are not approved yet.   Thus the higher rates.

    And no, "a lot" did not have COVID already.  So far there have been about 43 million reported COVID cases in the US.  Even if that is underreported by a factor of 2, that means only about 25% of the US has had a COVID infection at some point.  Far less than half.

    We are seeing a rise in child infections/hospitalizations because:

    1) Delta is far more infectious than earlier strains and more kids are getting infected
    2) Most kids are not eligible for a vaccination
    3) Kids have become the latest political lever, and many republicans are going to great lengths to ensure that attempts to protect them from COVID fail.

     

    Why then is the CDC number 2.3 to 2.6 per 100k?  Is that number attributed to more cases or more infections?  Assuming zero had covid the rate is basically the same between now and 2020 peak in 5 to 17 yr olds.

  23. · Edited by base698

    2 minutes ago, nwt said:

    Right... Billvon quoted an article from WebMD and then you quoted an article from CBS and pointed out a flaw in it... Completely separate articles...

    Its from the WebMD article.  The link is the CDC data from my screenshot.  

     

    Screenshot_20210923-113156.png

  24. Just now, olofscience said:

    So...are you going to address my last post, or just ignore it and pretend your point wasn't completely demolished?

    Also waiting for your rebuttal on my calculations for age group 40-49. We can discuss the statistics of covid and children afterwards.

    I'm on parental leave and have sporadic access to mobile internet.  Its on my list :)

  25. · Edited by base698

    32 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

    What is happening is that the sheer number of kids contracting the delta variant is leading to some of them getting very sick. As always when you deal with small fractions of a very large number those fractions become large themselves. Of course all this is completely preventable.

    See above.  A rate of 2.6 per hundred thousand equals 2000 hospitalizrd kids if all 77 million kids contracted covid.

    Not even considering, some kids are vaccinated, a lot had covid and have immunity and the rate is half for children under 5.  Having 2000 kids in the hospital the same week seems impossible.