diverdriver 5 #26 August 27, 2003 QuoteSo then why don't you do the analysis and contribute man?? Seems like nobody else could be more qualified... ...or are you only interested in knocking everybody else's 'incompetent' efforts by tuting your own scientific horn? CanEHdian Oh, I'm sure you've heard of John's freefall drift simulator. He's contributed all right. In this case I think that if we can gather that data then yes he will be able to contribute more. But I think only the USPA HQ will have that data if anyone has it. And I'm not sure they will release it to John. You never know.Chris Schindler www.diverdriver.com ATP/D-19012 FB #4125 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ron 7 #27 August 27, 2003 QuoteFact is, your proposal may or may not have merit, but it's impossible to tell from the data you've presented. Maybe that's why USPA decided they needed more information and declined to act on it. I'd go with the USPA didn't do anything since they are a worthless group that is more interested in a Museum than than anything else. I wish I did have that hard data, but as has been said like 100 times it does not take hard data to prove what has been show in every other type of activity.... You can't fly a HP plane with out instruction and PROVING you can handle it, why can you get a HP canopy without proving you can handle it? The FAA saw how pilots were getting killed, and made it so you need to PROVE you can handle HP before you can fly it. Auto insurance says that the higher performance the car the bigger the chance of an accident, and they have very high costs if you want to give a 16 year old (Read low experience) a Corvette...In fact some companies will not even sell you insurance on a car like that to a 16 year old...How does this not translate? I can't rent a Bonanza from a FBO...I don't have the 500 hrs they want. But I do have like 20 hrs in a Bonanza, but I still can't rent one. Why? The aircraft insurance company has done studies and shown that people with less than 500 hrs seem to ball up complex HP aircraft more than guys with more experience. How does this not compare? Now the big difference is that the FAA and insurance companies have a lot of money to pour into stupid studies...USPA does not, and there is no need to have skydiving insurance...You only break yourself, not a 100,000 airplane....so no one seems to care enough to do the studies. But how does all of the above not relate? Can you tell me that with added performance there is no need for added training? How can you make the people get the training or not jump HP canopies? Ron"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phoenixlpr 0 #28 August 27, 2003 QuoteAuto insurance says that the higher performance the car the bigger the chance of an accident, and they have very high costs if you want to give a 16 year old (Read low experience) a Corvette...In fact some companies will not even sell you insurance on a car like that to a 16 year old...How does this not translate? Cars and car insurance are a different business. Quote Now the big difference is that the FAA and insurance companies have a lot of money to pour into stupid studies...USPA does not, and there is no need to have skydiving insurance... And so what? If I know it right you dont have to be an USPA member for skydiving. QuoteHow can you make the people get the training or not jump HP canopies? Take a different approach. How can they get a gear they can not fly? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ron 7 #29 August 27, 2003 QuoteCars and car insurance are a different business. Yes, but the high cost of car insurance will limit what a kid drives... Plus they did do studies that proved that less experience and HP equals more accidents...So in that case it is relevant. QuoteAnd so what? If I know it right you dont have to be an USPA member for skydiving. USPA is the largest skydiving body...If they don't have the money to do that study...no one does. Unless you want the FAA or other goverment body to do it for ya. QuoteTake a different approach. How can they get a gear they can not fly? Some manufactorers don't care if you kill yourself..They still made a sale. I have a Stiletto 107, I could sell it to you with your 108 jumps. I would not, but I know of people that have done this....There are hundreds of ways. So the governing body approach is the only way, and it is being done by several countries."No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phoenixlpr 0 #30 August 27, 2003 QuotePlus they did do studies that proved that less experience and HP equals more accidents...So in that case it is relevant. You dont have to go so far. More HP, higher price... you should be able to afford a more expensive insurance... QuoteSome manufactorers don't care if you kill yourself..They still made a sale. I have a Stiletto 107, I could sell it to you with your 108 jumps. I would not, but I know of people that have done this....There are hundreds of ways. I really dont know why are you so stuck to my jump numbers? You can force regulation, they can get them killed in other contries. Anyway I think this accident is not supporting your experince/HP theory. Dont worry, you can find better cases.... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ron 7 #31 August 27, 2003 QuoteYou dont have to go so far. More HP, higher price... you should be able to afford a more expensive insurance... And some do, and some still get them....But some companies WILL NOT enven carry policies like that. I can get a 72 Camero for very little money...But it will cost a bunch to insure it still...Not becasue the car is worth anything, but becasue of the damage to others I could cause. Not such an issue with skydiving, which is why no one pays attention to us "meat bombs" unless we kill a bus load of nuns. QuoteI really dont know why are you so stuck to my jump numbers? Who said anything about your jump #'s??? I just used you as an example..If you have the cash I bet you could buy a Stiletto 107 from someone. (Not me) QuoteYou can force regulation, they can get them killed in other contries. I don't understand what you are saying here? But I don't care about other countries...I have no say in how your clubs work, I can only try to make change in the areas I am in. Such as the USPA. QuoteAnyway I think this accident is not supporting your experince/HP theory. Dont worry, you can find better cases.... He is not dead. So it kinda does huh? My theory was that with experience you will not get killed or hurt as bad. So try again."No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phoenixlpr 0 #32 August 27, 2003 QuoteAnd some do, and some still get them....But some companies WILL NOT enven carry policies like that. They wont tell you, just give a different risk estimate....thats a bit off Ive asked you already: Do you have to the member of USPA if you want to skydive in US? Having experience is just one of those factors that leads to an acident... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ron 7 #33 August 27, 2003 QuoteThey wont tell you, just give a different risk estimate....thats a bit off No I know of companies that WILL NOT sell you a policy for a 16 yearold and a new Corvette...But you seem to be missing the point here...The fact is they charge more due to the fact that less experienced people tend to have accidents in HP cars more than they do in regular performance cars, and less than experienced people in HP cars..... Why do you think this does not translate to canopy flight? QuoteIve asked you already: Do you have to the member of USPA if you want to skydive in US? Only if the DZ is a USPA group member...Of the two DZ's I go to most Zhills and DeLand...ZHills requires it, DeLand does not. QuoteHaving experience is just one of those factors that leads to an acident... No, LACK or experience is a factor that leads to an accident. What are some others? Show me where experience does not reduce the chance of an accident in 90% of the accidents?"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phoenixlpr 0 #34 August 27, 2003 Why are we discussing cars HERE? QuoteOnly if the DZ is a USPA group member...Of the two DZ's I go to most Zhills and DeLand...ZHills requires it, DeLand does not. Thats the thing I wanted to point to. QuoteNo, LACK or experience is a factor that leads to an accident. What are some others? Show me where experience does not reduce the chance of an accident in 90% of the accidents? Ive started last year with jump number of 32. I had 54 jumps from the mid of March til 1st July. Ive managed to break my ankle with a PDNavigator. I had more than 30 jump with it and 15-20 with that size I used that time. Now I had the experience. I wouldnt say that PDNavigator is not safe....... It was a clear piloting fault. Not more, not less. Lack of experience is not the only factor that leads to an accident. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ron 7 #35 August 27, 2003 QuoteWhy are we discussing cars HERE? I was disscussing how the insurance companies have done the research to show how lack of experience is a factor in accidents...That was for John...you jumped into the disscusion. QuoteThats the thing I wanted to point to. And this was for reason? I already knew that you don't have to follow the USPA reg...Hell even at a USPA DZ you don't USPA has no enforcement powers. QuoteIve started last year with jump number of 32. I had 54 jumps from the mid of March til 1st July. Ive managed to break my ankle with a PDNavigator. I had more than 30 jump with it and 15-20 with that size I used that time. Now I had the experience. I wouldnt say that PDNavigator is not safe....... It was a clear piloting fault. Not more, not less. How can you say you had the experience? 30 jumps is nothing. And then you say "It was clear pilot fault"...Ok is that not lack of experience? Quote Lack of experience is not the only factor that leads to an accident. And like I asked before..name one more factor that experience could not have avoided? Duh! Ron"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phoenixlpr 0 #36 August 27, 2003 QuoteHow can you say you had the experience? 30 jumps is nothing. And then you say "It was clear pilot fault"...Ok is that not lack of experience? You would expect a student to land a student canopy after 30 jumps, what about 86? It was a bad decision. I admit later with a smaller it would cost more..... QuoteAnd like I asked before..name one more factor that experience could not have avoided? Place, weather, traffic, phisical condition, mental condition, , lack of sleep, dehidrated, hungry, other persons ....................black cat Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ron 7 #37 August 27, 2003 QuoteYou would expect a student to land a student canopy after 30 jumps, what about 86? It was a bad decision. I admit later with a smaller it would cost more..... It was a bad decision made by lack of experience. QuotePlace, weather, traffic, phisical condition, mental condition, , lack of sleep, dehidrated, hungry, other persons ....................black cat All of these are avoidable if you have the experience to know about them. Place: Don't jump into places that are to tight for you, know how to spot, identify when you need to land somewhere else, don't do new stuff at new places...All can be ruled out if you have experience. Weather: I know when to not jump due to weather...people with 100 jumps sometimes don't. Heres a story..I had 200 jumps and was getting geared up for a jump and my buddy have 1500 and was not getting geared up...I asked him why and he told me that the winds were going to pick up and it was going to rain before we got to altitude...He suggested I scratch off the load. I thought he was nuts since it looked fine to me, but I respected his experience and scratched...15 min later the winds were 20 MPH, and it started to rain. People landed all over the place and were getting drug everywhere....He knew better, I didn't. Traffic: I very rarely get cut off...Why? because I avoid other canopies. I have the experience to know who is going to do what under canopy...Its not 100% but its better than when I had 100 jumps. And when some jackass does cut me off I have the experience tohandle it better now than when I did back then. Physical & Mental condition: I know when I am not ready to jump, and I have the experience to know it is a bad idea. So I use my experience and don't jump. lack of sleep, dehydrated, hungry,: Same thing I know when I can be all of the above and I use my experience and don't jump, or I know how it will affect me and take that into account. Other people: I use my experience to guess what most people are going to do...Most of the time I am right, and when I am not I have the experience to be able to make it less of a situation. black cat: not even going to respond..If you think Luck good or bad is what keeps you safe, find a new sport. So see how EXPERIENCE can eliminate all those problems? Ron"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phoenixlpr 0 #38 August 27, 2003 Those things coming together in a combination......but anyone can make a bad decision anytime. How do you measure experience? Years in sport ? Number of jumps? ...... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
freakydiver 0 #39 August 27, 2003 I couldn't have put it better -- (N.DG) "If all else fails – at least try and look under control." -- Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ron 7 #40 August 27, 2003 Quote Those things coming together in a combination......but anyone can make a bad decision anytime. Yep, but by using experience you can eliminate some of them from becoming a factor in a situation that could lead to an accident. Then even if that event happens you can draw on experience to prevent it from becoming an accident. Or at least limit the amount of damage. Case in point: I was in a CRW wrap. The bottom guy and I talked it out and we decided that he needed to go..We decided that he would go first, then I would. He cutaway and his canopy got all tangled with mine...It started mine flying very funny. My first reaction was to chop it...But then I waited and started to look around...I was unsure I would clear his main...I made the choice to attempt to land my canopy with his wrapped in mine. When I did land I had two riggers look at me before I moved. They both agreed that if I would have choped I would not have cleared, and the reserve would most likley not have opened....I wanted to cutaway...but I didn't. I made this choice based off of fatality I had seen where a guy did cutaway and it never cleared...Without that experience...I would have cutaway, and most likley died. QuoteHow do you measure experience? Years in sport ? Number of jumps? ...... I don't think there is a definate answer to this one.... Experience is a combination of Skills, Knowledge, and the culmination of all the events of your life..not just in one area. Years and number of jumps plays a part, but so does knowledge and experiences in other areas. Knowledge you can work on...Years and jumps you just have to live through. But if I had to say one thing...I would say number of jumps. The number of times you have done something is a good indication of your ability to do it again. Then years..It is impossible to be in the sport and not learn something. Then knowledge...But knowledge is gained by jumps and years..Knowledge is nothing without application."No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
freakydiver 0 #41 August 27, 2003 "Do you have to the member of USPA if you want to skydive in US?" Most people are. "Having experience is just one of those factors that leads to an acident..." IMHO - not true. At 150 jumps under a Sabre 135 loaded at 1.3 at the time, I made a very bad error becuase of my lack of experience and left a big ass divot where my face hit - 4 inches deep about. People thought I was dead. I had made the 50 jumps of 100-150 in a very short time and felt as though I knew it all. There is much much more to flying a HP canopy fast than just the canopy itself. MANY more things. It wasn't until about a year ago and 500 jumps later on that same canopy that I feel as though I've reached a level to be able to completely ascertain a swooping oppurtunity and say "yes" or "no" to. Most people with low jump numbers just haven't seen enough things in the air to make those types of decisions. Luckily, I had a great support system while learning under that canopy and never made such a bad mistake ever again - because I was being guided very closely. Having experience leads to knowledge which leads to the ability to say "yes" or "no" given all factors surrounding high performance landings and that is what is important. That said, I believe experience and knowledge can begin at very low jump numbers given a good set of learning tools - look at AFF and how it has progressed the sport of skydiving. It is a structured learning program. There really could and should be a similar program to take people to the next level of parachute flight since it is as or more complicated in some aspects than freefall itself imho. Not ever really having taken a canopy instruction course, I can't say those are working or not, but I imagine there are really good ones out there that teach pepole a good foundation for progressing to a faster and longer swoop. Only education will save the next generation of femurers. -- (N.DG) "If all else fails – at least try and look under control." -- Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phoenixlpr 0 #42 August 27, 2003 I have a really bad example. Imagine a guy with 10+ years, 3000+ jumps....................but he is a paratrooper and 95% of jumps were SL Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ron 7 #43 August 27, 2003 Quote I have a really bad example. Imagine a guy with 10+ years, 3000+ jumps....................but he is a paratrooper and 95% of jumps were SL Then he does not have much experience with Freefall. He does not have enough knowledge with Freefall. If I were doing a SL I owuld listen to this guy...If I were doing a Freefall I would not. Simple huh?"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 1,648 #44 August 27, 2003 QuoteActually, his position (at least as I heard it in another thread) is that since he favors the status quo, the burden of proof is not on him. I happen to disagree with whether there's a problem, but that is ample justification, with a huge amount of precedent, for his not defending his position. Wendy W. That is 100% correct. The burden is on those who wish to make a change to prove that the change is (a) warranted, and (b) will achieve what they claim. I don't buy the argument that USPA won't release data. Two years ago I asked HQ for their accumulated accident statistics, and they sent me an enormous Excel file with data going back 2 decades. Why would USPA withhold information needed for a safety analysis - that just doesn't make sense? Here are some questions that need answers: 1. Are low time jumpers under high WL having accidents at a rate higher than their numbers in the overall population of skydivers would warrant? So far, we have no answer to this, the single most fundamental question. Answering this requires looking at all landing accidents, not just those of the "target" group. As I wrote before, if all you ever look at are crows, and you ignore robins and blue jays, you may well conclude that all birds are black. 2. Are there any other indicators that correlate with accident rate (age, sex, brand of canopy, type of instruction {AFF/SL/IAD}, license level ...). In other words, is it possible that the wrong group has been identified as the primary at-risk group. 3. If a WL limit is put in place, will it make any impact (pun intended) on the accident rate. Risk homeostatis theory suggests that it may not even if the primary at-risk group has been properly identified. This is because the risk of jumping a HP canopy is one deliberately chosen by the skydiver. 4. Will there be unintended consequences of a WL BSR, such as excessively rapid downsizing by jumpers with 501 jumps, or excessively radical flying by 200 jump wonders just because they are under a "safe" canopy (i.e., risk homeostasis), or bogus courses set up just so jumpers can get a waiver. It is my opinion that there are too many unanswered questions for me to support a WL BSR at this time. Apparently the USPA S&T committee thinks the same way. And I fail to see why anyone thinks it is my job to provide those answers.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ron 7 #45 August 27, 2003 Quote1. Are low time jumpers under high WL having accidents at a rate higher than their numbers in the overall population of skydivers would warrant? So far, we have no answer to this, the single most fundamental question. Answering this requires looking at all landing accidents, not just those of the "target" group. As I wrote before, if all you ever look at are crows, and you ignore robins and blue jays, you may well conclude that all birds are black. Looking at the landing fatalities it does show more under 500 jump skydivers than over 500 jump skydivers... Does this not say anything to you? I agree with most of the other stuff you wrote. However we will never get the Data you want. And lack of action should not be confused as movement. The USPA is too lazy to do anything."No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 1,648 #46 August 27, 2003 Quote Auto insurance says that the higher performance the car the bigger the chance of an accident, and they have very high costs if you want to give a 16 year old (Read low experience) a Corvette...In fact some companies will not even sell you insurance on a car like that to a 16 year old...How does this not translate? I submit that age and gender are primary factors and so do insurance companies. An under 25 male will pay through the nose for auto insurance regardless of how many miles thay have driven in the past, just on account of age and gender. Auto insurers pay little attention to experience, but a lot of attention to age and gender. It costs me a lot less to insure my airplane (Mooney, complex, retractable) than for my 22 year old son to insure his Ford Focus. He has many more hours driving than I do flying. They never ask how many miles he's driven but they sure keep track of his age.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 1,648 #47 August 27, 2003 QuoteQuote1. Are low time jumpers under high WL having accidents at a rate higher than their numbers in the overall population of skydivers would warrant? So far, we have no answer to this, the single most fundamental question. Answering this requires looking at all landing accidents, not just those of the "target" group. As I wrote before, if all you ever look at are crows, and you ignore robins and blue jays, you may well conclude that all birds are black. Looking at the landing fatalities it does show more under 500 jump skydivers than over 500 jump skydivers... Does this not say anything to you? I agree with most of the other stuff you wrote. However we will never get the Data you want. And lack of action should not be confused as movement. The USPA is too lazy to do anything. Sorry, that argument doesn't work. According to the USPA web site, there are a lot more under 500 jump skydivers than over 500 jump skydivers, so one would expect them to have more accidents even if there is no correlation of accident rate with jump numbers.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
craddock 0 #48 August 27, 2003 QuoteLooking at the landing fatalities it does show more under 500 jump skydivers than over 500 jump sydivers Does this not say anything to you? I says that I would like to find out the % of jumpers under 500 jumps vs. over. I was under the impression that there were more jumpers in the first catagory. That said, could one not expect people with less experience to make more mistakes causing more injuries regardless of wingloading. Is this poor logic? Should we expect those with more experience to get hurt more often and consider anything less a problem? Wow Josh That spot isn't bad at all, the winds were strong and that was the issue! It was just on the downwind side. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ron 7 #49 August 27, 2003 Age can equal experience right?"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ron 7 #50 August 27, 2003 QuoteSorry, that argument doesn't work. According to the USPA web site, there are a lot more under 500 jump skydivers than over 500 jump skydivers, so one would expect them to have more accidents even if there is no correlation of accident rate with jump numbers. And I would bet that more skydives are made by those with over 500 jumps than those under...Since USPA counts those that only made one, but joined the USPA. I personally know several jumpers that make 1,000 jumps a year. And I know several USPA members that only make 40 a year. So it would seem that there are more skydives made by those with over 500 jumps...So they should have more accidents right?"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
