"How to Surge the Taliban"

[nerdgirl 0]

Last Friday there were a couple of interesting (imo) contrasting Op-Eds in the NY Times on Afghanistan.

In an way somewhat parallel (or as I can push it) to the way that GEN Petraeus has spoken of engaging the moderate segments of the Taliban, without specifying exactly who that it; Max Boot, Fred Kagan, and Kimberly Kagan (BK^2) put forth a moderated neo-conservative foreign policy view in “How to Surge the Taliban.

They criticize Ralph Peters’ recommendations from his USA Today Op-Ed, discussed in this thread “Ralph Peters: ignore COIN theory and pull out of Afghanistan” but they seem to assign/imply those are the Obama admininstration’s recommendations. At least one blogger has taken the bait BK^2 set-up and is fully criticizing the Obama admin’s plan for Afghanistan, “Giving Up on Afghanistan (It Begins).” The most significant policy decisions announced w/r/t Afghanistan over the last 2 months has been the 17k increase in troops, which BK^2 acknowledge but seem to cognitively set-aside in their argument.

“‘Don’t worry, we are not going to lose this war.’

“These were the parting words to us from Brig. Gen. Sher Muhammad Zazai, commander of the 205th Corps of the Afghan National Army in Kandahar. He was echoing the sentiments of a group of village elders we had met days before in Khost Province, who assured us that they would never allow the Taliban to come back.

“It is odd that the Afghans felt it necessary to reassure American visitors that all was far from lost. It reflected the fact that even in a country where electricity and running water are scarce, word of the defeatist hysteria now gripping some in the American political elite has spread.”[Do BK^2 mean Ralph Peters? I suspect that is probably not who they want the reader to think of in conjunction with the phrase “American political elite,” eh? – nerdgirl]

BK^2 don’t go so far as to suggest that the Afghans will be throwing flowers at ISAF troops’ feet … but a cynical-cognizant reader can readily see themes in the prose.

I do agree w/BK^2 on a number of points: coordination of NATO leadership, the need for a civil justice system: like Iraq, one measure of stability may be per capita number employed lawyers. It’s one sign/indicator of a robust civil (including criminal, as opposed to religious-based, ad hoc, or indiscriminate) legal system. BK^2 don’t acknowledge that the Obama admin has cited the need for more troops that can train Afghan police.

And Dave Kilcullen agrees with me (or maybe it’s the other way around … ) from the conservative National Review Online:

“Although opportunities may arise for us to ‘divide and conquer’ elements of the enemy, in practice local ties tend to far outweigh government influence. Thus we need to induce local tribal and community leaders who have the respect and tribal loyalty of part-time elements to wean them away from loyalty to the main-force Taliban. [capability that is gained through understanding the human terrain – nerdgirl] Appealing to the self-interest of local clandestine cell leaders may also help isolate them from the influence of senior Taliban leaders who are currently safe in Pakistan.”

Eroding tacit support is key. I’m not sure BK^2 get that.

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[nerdgirl 0]

The other NY Times Op-Ed from Friday, How to Leave Afghanistan, isn’t really calling for an exit strategy (editors *not* Op-Ed writers select titles), but Gelb acknowledges that (1) what NATO has been doing for the last 7 years isn’t working the way we wanted/hoped, and (2) whatever we do, “…there’s no motivation greater than the nightmare of extremists controlling Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.[/url]” And that the motivation extends not just to the US And allies, but to Russia (with Chechnyan Muslim separatists) and China (with Uyghur Muslim separatists).

Gelb gets the India connection too … and suggests India reduce “its forces on the border with Pakistan, for example, thereby allowing Pakistani moderates to focus their attention more on the growing and already formidable extremist threat within.” He doesn’t mention Kashmir, which is a critical piece in the Grand chessboard.

I don’t buy Gelb’s analogy to President Nixon and former Sec of State Kissinger’s policy choices w/r/t Vietnam.

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Nelyubin 0]

Just leave.

The goals declared when entering the NATO troops do not match reality.

Previously (1980-1988) The U.S. spends money to create and organize Tolebana bases in Pakistan. Let spend at the moment to purchase Toleban managers.

[Skyrad 0]

Hi Marg,
Interesting post. I think though people have taken their eye off the ball (looking at Iraq) for so long that they've looked back and not noticed that the game has moved way on.
It is not possible to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan until they have also been defeated in Pakistan.
Only westerners see a border between the two countries (and wars) Last year in Pakistan alone there were over 30 Taliban bombings in civillian areas and 7000 killed in fighting between the Pakistani Governmant forces and the Taliban. The Taliban control Sawat and other towns in the northof Pakistan and operate with confidence in many other areas. Even in the south the creeping evil of the Talibans influence is felt in Karachi where they have hundreds of Madrasa's brainwashing children to become suicide bombers willing to lay down their lives for the Taliban.
I have been thinking about the danger that the Taliban pose in Pakistan. They are a cancer that needs to be destroyed. If they take control of Pakistan then it will leave the west with few options as Nuclear weapons can not be allowed to fall into their hands. I have many loved family members in Pakistan and do not say this lightly but its time war was waged in Pakistan against the Taliban by not just the Pakistani government and covertly by the US & UK.
I would like to see UAE forces in Pakistan to fight the Taliban with access to more AH64's. Currently they have 4 with another two on their way. (Pakistan already has F16's) Jordanian troops would also be useful and the Crown of Jordan owes one to the Pakistani government.

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

[nerdgirl 0]

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Interesting post.

Thank you. Many of your comments resemble those I've made before on strategic and international issues, notably recently in the thread “Ralph Peters: ignore COIN theory and pull out of Afghanistan” and in the thread “US in Afghanistan 2025 and beyond.”

I had planned to trek to (not up) K2 this summer, along with professional and personal visits to colleagues and friends in Karachi, Hyderabad, and Islamabad. For a variety of reasons and under security “guidance,” those plans have been cancelled.

Have you seen and what do you think of Steve Coll’s latest in The New Yorker “The Back Channel”? He situates the US/NATO fight in Afghanistan as it relates to the the simmering Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan and Pakistan's moderating/controlling influence on the LeT.

In the "Grand Chessboard" ignoring key pieces/players will doom one's game, imo.

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I have many loved family members in Pakistan and do not say this lightly but its time war was waged in Pakistan against the Taliban by not just the Pakistani government and covertly by the US & UK.

I would like to see UAE forces in Pakistan to fight the Taliban with access to more AH64's. Currently they have 4 with another two on their way. (Pakistan already has F16's) Jordanian troops would also be useful and the Crown of Jordan owes one to the Pakistani government

I haven’t thought about that scenario with any seriousness. On a first level response, I’m interested in hearing more. In principle, I support the more active involvement by the Arab states in securing their own region and the extended region. Trying to think through/play out scenarios on regional security …

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Skyrad 0]

I Haven't read that piece yet, I will and will get back to you on it. As for...

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I haven’t thought about that scenario with any seriousness. On a first level response, I’m interested in hearing more. In principle, I support the more active involvement by the Arab states in securing their own region and the extended region. Trying to think through/play out scenarios on regional security …

Its important that this is not seen to be a new phase of a Crusade (which is how the Taliban would spin a more overt US UK involvement). Therefore I believe that it needs to be a war proscecuted by troops from Suni Islamic countires that go to fight the Taliban. This could then be a war for the soul of Islam under which mainstream moderates and libral Muslims could be rallied to. It would also split the Taliban support base n an ideological/theological basis.
Weapons can kill people but without waging war and destroying the ideology that drive the motivation of the enemy then their deaths will only serve as a call to arms for dozens more.

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

[BillyVance 34]

Surge the Taliban, my ass. Just drop a few Daisy Cutters on them to keep their mangy asses in line.

"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban

[Nelyubin 0]

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China and Russia should be more willing to help in this anti-Taliban effort as the American military presence recedes from their sensitive borders...

Previously (1980-1994) The U.S. spends money on the creation and organization of training (military) bases of Taliban in Pakistan.

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China, India, Iran and Russia might cooperate with Washington simply because there’s no motivation greater than the nightmare of extremists controlling Pakistan’s nuclear weapons...

Pakistan became a nuclear country with the direct assistance of Washington.


You (the U.S.) should not decide for the whole world.
Arrange the order in their country.

[BillyVance 34]

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***Pakistan became a nuclear country with the direct assistance of Washington.

Can you provide a link to a source for that fact? For some reason I think they gained their nuclear knowledge from somewhere else. Of course, I may have confused or gotten my facts backwards. They had a nuclear scandal years back where information got pilfered/shared that should not have been, and one or a few other countries gained nuclear capabilities or are working on it.

"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban

[Skyrad 0]

I'd support back channel discussions. The UK Gov and the PIRA conducted back channel discussions for years which led to the end(ish) of the troubles in the North of this island (Happy St Patrick's day by the way)
As for Kashmir its a difficult situation with no easy solution. Personally I'd like to see the LeT destroyed. But its so tied up with Pakistani nationalism now that a open decisive strike against the LeT by the Pakistani Gov would be suicide. I'd like to see the disputed territory self administred 'devolved as it were' and self automonous. The only way their would be a millitary resolution of the disput is if China were to roll over the area and claim it (and thats not going to happen). so back channel discussions are vital.

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

[nerdgirl 0]

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Weapons can kill people but without waging war and destroying the ideology that drive the motivation of the enemy then their deaths will only serve as a call to arms for dozens more.

Concur.

Strongly concur.

See everything I've written on importance of SSTR, counterinsurgency, and understanding the human terrain.

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[nerdgirl 0]

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***Pakistan became a nuclear country with the direct assistance of Washington.

Can you provide a link to a source for that fact?

I'm looking forward to that too. There are a lot of countries and people implicated in the AQ Khan network and Khan Research Laboratories; the US is not among them.

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[nerdgirl 0]

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As for Kashmir its a difficult situation with no easy solution.

That may be a nominee for understatement of the year. A truth which I suspect you appreciate ...

A number of years ago, I followed the Kashmir issue much more closely. Moderated Track II discussions between Indian and Pakistani nuclear scientists in July 2003 in Moscow on Kashmir. (Now *that* was an exercise in personal diplomacy too. ) Just the water/watershed issues alone are complicated ... & how often does one hear about water w/r/t Kashmir?

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Skyrad 0]

Almost never. That was an interesting time, about the same time as the South Asia strategic missle report came out to congress and the Nuc lists were swapped between India and Pakistan.

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

[Nelyubin 0]

http://www.iimes.ru/rus/stat/2006/13-05-06a.htm

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First of all, it is necessary to note the participation of mainland China. It was so great that part of the program of Saudi Arabia and Libya were exclusively financial, particularly in 1973 and 1974. True, some American journalists believe that the development of Pakistan's nuclear weapons were involved and the USA. At the very least, these weapons have been established with their acquiescence.

Pakistan is a strategic ally of the United States. Prior to recent events.
This says a lot.


The first real step in the development of the program was the construction of the Center for Nuclear Studies in Islamabad, and then, after the 1960 U.S. aid worth 350 thousand dollars - the building of light water reactor research capacity of 5 MW, which became operational in 1965.