kallend 1,679 #26 January 9, 2008 Quote You mean the Professor is trolling??? He wouldn't do that....would he? I'm pretty familiar with how statistics can be manipulated to show only what the presenter wants shown. I learned much of it from working on a political campaign and was assigned exactly that task. Please tell us how the FBI manipulates the number of homicides. I'm sure we'd all like to know.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rehmwa 2 #27 January 9, 2008 QuotePlease tell us how the FBI manipulates the number of homicides. I'm sure we'd all like to know. First, the FBI figures out how many people they want killed to get approval of their annual budget. Call that "A" Then, they count the actual number killed. Call that "B" then, if A > B, they send out assassins to kill exactly A-B number of people. ... Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 1,679 #28 January 9, 2008 Quote Quote Please tell us how the FBI manipulates the number of homicides. I'm sure we'd all like to know. First, the FBI figures out how many people they want killed to get approval of their annual budget. Call that "A" Then, they count the actual number killed. Call that "B" then, if A > B, they send out assassins to kill exactly A-B number of people. Thanks - the first credible response.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rehmwa 2 #29 January 9, 2008 Quote Thanks - the first credible response. well, if you'd have paid attention in math class and also 'governmental accounting practices 201', it would have been pretty obvious ... Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mnealtx 0 #30 January 9, 2008 Quote You're getting better. Meaculpa, mea culpa, mea maximal culpa Mike I love you, Shannon and Jim. POPS 9708 , SCR 14706 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 1,679 #31 January 9, 2008 Quote Quote You're getting better. Meaculpa, mea culpa, mea maximal culpa Hey, it isn't easy being a Texan.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mnealtx 0 #32 January 9, 2008 Quote Quote Quote You're getting better. Meaculpa, mea culpa, mea maximal culpa Hey, it isn't easy being a Texan. Sure it is... we just have to be ... "plain nasty", I think the quote was? Mike I love you, Shannon and Jim. POPS 9708 , SCR 14706 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KelliJ 0 #33 January 9, 2008 Quote Quote You mean the Professor is trolling??? He wouldn't do that....would he? I'm pretty familiar with how statistics can be manipulated to show only what the presenter wants shown. I learned much of it from working on a political campaign and was assigned exactly that task. Please tell us how the FBI manipulates the number of homicides. I'm sure we'd all like to know. Please tell us where I said it was the FBI who manipulated the numbers. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 1,679 #34 January 10, 2008 Quote Quote Quote You mean the Professor is trolling??? He wouldn't do that....would he? I'm pretty familiar with how statistics can be manipulated to show only what the presenter wants shown. I learned much of it from working on a political campaign and was assigned exactly that task. Please tell us how the FBI manipulates the number of homicides. I'm sure we'd all like to know. Please tell us where I said it was the FBI who manipulated the numbers. The numbers y'all seem to be questioning come straight from the FBI UCR web site. Now, answer the question. Are you claiming the FBI manipulated the homicide data (if so, kindly tell us how) or are YOU just trolling? (I noticed NO-ONE except me questioned the garbage no-source claims in the OP, but you're all over the FBI numbers. Funny, that).... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mnealtx 0 #35 January 10, 2008 Quote(I noticed NO-ONE except me questioned the garbage no-source claims in the OP, but you're all over the FBI numbers. Funny, that). We had a good teacher.Mike I love you, Shannon and Jim. POPS 9708 , SCR 14706 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
1969912 0 #36 January 10, 2008 Quote (I noticed NO-ONE except me questioned the garbage no-source claims in the OP, but you're all over the FBI numbers. Funny, that). I may have missed something, but the only claim I've found in the news article linked to by the OP is: "The incidence of violent crime in Michigan in the six years since the law went into effect has been, on average, below the rate of the previous six years. The overall incidence of death from firearms, including suicide and accidents, also has declined." Your response was: "....Michigan violent crime rate per 100,000 2000 2001 2006 555.0 554.7 562.4 ..." By showing data for just those three years, it seems clear that you didn't evaluate what the article claimed. I'd suggest you look at the six years before and after the CCW law was changed as stated in the article. The claims, as you claim, may in fact be garbage, but you have provided nothing in support of it. Sorry to question your analysis of the article, but someone had to.... "Once we got to the point where twenty/something's needed a place on the corner that changed the oil in their cars we were doomed . . ." -NickDG Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KelliJ 0 #37 January 10, 2008 Quote The numbers y'all seem to be questioning come straight from the FBI UCR web site. Now, answer the question. Are you claiming the FBI manipulated the homicide data (if so, kindly tell us how) or are YOU just trolling? No and No. Those numbers could have been manipulated at any one of many points including typo errors when entered, intentional "typos", hackers, people who download the data and then change it, etc. Did the FBI change it? I don't know and neither do you. Did YOU change it? Again, I have no idea. Only you know the answer to that. Tell me, why should anyone here respect your data anymore than you respect anyone else's? With all due respect, Professor, you seem to categorize any data you don't like as junk yet expect everyone else to except yours as gospel. Given the distaste you have for the present Bush administration it is surprising that you would trust data from any branch of the U.S. Government. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 1,679 #38 January 10, 2008 QuoteQuoteThe numbers y'all seem to be questioning come straight from the FBI UCR web site. Now, answer the question. Are you claiming the FBI manipulated the homicide data (if so, kindly tell us how) or are YOU just trolling? No and No. ... Did YOU change it? Again, I have no idea. Only you know the answer to that. mnealtx can show you EXACTLY where to find the FBI UCR data (right, Mike). Or you can Google "FBI UCR". If you can't be bothered to check for yourself, quit throwing dust in the air. It makes you look silly.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
happythoughts 0 #39 January 10, 2008 The Prof is just f-in with you guys. He understands statistics and realizes that there is no statistical inference that can be drawn from them. It is even stated by the FBI at the top of the page. QuoteThese rankings, however, are merely a quick choice made by the data user; they provide no insight into the many variables that mold the crime in a particular town, city, county, state, region, or other jurisdiction. Consequently, these rankings lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analysis that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting cities and counties, along with their residents. On the pages, the FBI states that poverty, gangs, and many other factors drive criminal behavior. (I quoted all this earlier, with a link) The FBI discusses the core issues that create crime. The availability of guns is not listed. If we just want to cherry-pick our data and twist all the non-related crap around, we can just choose specific cases. That is not how value is drawn from statistics. Arlington, Tx 373,086 just 2 murders 1 out of 186K Rockford, Il ? 153,738 10 1 out of 15K You are over 10 times safer in Texas than Illinois ...according to the statistics. You could say that guns make Texas safer than Illinois. For cities over 2 million, Houston and Chicago are almost identical. Chicago 201 Houston 202 A difference of .005 The only inference that you can actually gain from the Michigan CCW law is that the change from 25,000 licenses to 155,000, had no effect on the crime rate in Michigan itself. If guns were a driver for crime, then there would have been a change. Detroit, MI and Camden, NJ are two of the most crime ridden cities in the country. Their crime levels are tied to the poverty that is increasing as the manufacturing base leaves those cities. As the US auto industry in Detroit declines, the crime rate will rise. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KelliJ 0 #40 January 10, 2008 I know exactly where to find the data on the 'net. Than you for the help anyway. Quote If you can't be bothered to check for yourself, quit throwing dust in the air. It makes you look silly. I think that could go both ways, Professor. You easily dismissed the small reference to statistics in the article yet you could do some research, maybe send an e-mail asking for the source, if you really want to know. You either accept the data or you don't. If you don't then, as you yourself made clear, it is up to you to make sure it is indeed inaccurate before condemning. So, is the FBI data accurate? I don't know and don't care. Since I don't use it to make the decision whether I carry concealed or not I have little interest in it. My point isn't where the data can be found, only to point out that there are places where that data can be changed either purposely or accidentally. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 1,679 #41 January 10, 2008 Quote I know exactly where to find the data on the 'net. Than you for the help anyway. Quote If you can't be bothered to check for yourself, quit throwing dust in the air. It makes you look silly. I think that could go both ways, Professor. You easily dismissed the small reference to statistics in the article yet you could do some research, maybe send an e-mail asking for the source, if you really want to know. You either accept the data or you don't. If you don't then, as you yourself made clear, it is up to you to make sure it is indeed inaccurate before condemning. So, is the FBI data accurate? I don't know and don't care. Since I don't use it to make the decision whether I carry concealed or not I have little interest in it. My point isn't where the data can be found, only to point out that there are places where that data can be changed either purposely or accidentally. Your point applies to every source of data out there and to every item of data ever posted on DZ.COM. Why are you picking on the FBI UCR which is certainly among the most reliable of sources, unless you are just trolling.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 1,679 #42 January 10, 2008 Quote For cities over 2 million, Houston and Chicago are almost identical. Chicago 201 Houston 202 A difference of .005 Since Chicago is actually quite a lot larger than Houston, the homicide RATE in Houston is IN FACT 38% higher than Chicago's. Dallas's is higher still. Miami, FL, is higher still. Orlando, FL is even higher than that.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mnealtx 0 #43 January 10, 2008 Quote Quote For cities over 2 million, Houston and Chicago are almost identical. Chicago 201 Houston 202 A difference of .005 Since Chicago is actually quite a lot larger than Houston, the homicide RATE in Houston is IN FACT 38% higher than Chicago's. Dallas's is higher still. Miami, FL, is higher still. Orlando, FL is even higher than that. Sounds like inner-city gang and drug crime is the problem, then.... Hmm...I wonder *where* I've heard that before??? Mike I love you, Shannon and Jim. POPS 9708 , SCR 14706 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 1,679 #44 January 10, 2008 Quote Quote Quote For cities over 2 million, Houston and Chicago are almost identical. Chicago 201 Houston 202 A difference of .005 Since Chicago is actually quite a lot larger than Houston, the homicide RATE in Houston is IN FACT 38% higher than Chicago's. Dallas's is higher still. Miami, FL, is higher still. Orlando, FL is even higher than that. Sounds like inner-city gang and drug crime is the problem, then.... Hmm...I wonder *where* I've heard that before??? Are you next going to claim that Chicago has no street gangs or drugs?... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KelliJ 0 #45 January 10, 2008 I picked the FBI data because that is what you posted and assumed, without even bothering to check, that the bit of data referenced in the article was bad and inferior to the data you posted. I don't think asking a simple question is trolling. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mnealtx 0 #46 January 10, 2008 QuoteAre you next going to claim that Chicago has no street gangs or drugs? *rolls eyes* That's even worse than your usual unfounded claims about guns causing crime...Mike I love you, Shannon and Jim. POPS 9708 , SCR 14706 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 1,679 #47 January 11, 2008 QuoteQuoteAre you next going to claim that Chicago has no street gangs or drugs? *rolls eyes* That's even worse than your usual unfounded claims about guns causing crime... That's YOUR strawman. Guns in the wrong hands enable worse crimes.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 1,679 #48 January 11, 2008 QuoteI picked the FBI data because that is what you posted and assumed, without even bothering to check, that the bit of data referenced in the article was bad and inferior to the data you posted. I don't think asking a simple question is trolling. Lame. The OP assertion was accepted without question until I raised one. When I quoted numbers from the FBI, if you doubted my honesty you could have checked for yourself instead of making an unfounded allegation.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KelliJ 0 #49 January 11, 2008 Quote Quote I picked the FBI data because that is what you posted and assumed, without even bothering to check, that the bit of data referenced in the article was bad and inferior to the data you posted. I don't think asking a simple question is trolling. Lame. The OP assertion was accepted without question until I raised one. When I quoted numbers from the FBI, if you doubted my honesty you could have checked for yourself instead of making an unfounded allegation. Unfounded allegation? Pray tell, dear Sir, what unfounded allegations are you accusing me of making? As for accepting the data or anything else in the article, I neither accept nor dismiss any of it. As I stated it makes no difference to me whether it is accurate or not. You were the first to question the accuracy of anything posted in this thread. If you don't want people challenging the accuracy of stuff you present, then don't get your panties all in a wad and question the accuracy of other people's posts. What is good enough for the goose is good enough for the gander. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
happythoughts 0 #50 January 11, 2008 QuoteQuoteQuoteAre you next going to claim that Chicago has no street gangs or drugs? *rolls eyes* That's even worse than your usual unfounded claims about guns causing crime... That's YOUR strawman. Guns in the wrong hands enable worse crimes. Agreed. "The wrong hands". The wrong hands of criminals. Criminals cause crime. As Michigan discovered, CCW holders are law-abiding citizens, so the increase of CCW licenses from 25K to 155K (130,000) did not contribute to crime. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
