awagnon

I'm not sure if this is the same canopy simulator that was on Dropzone.com in early November. I tried the demo version of that one, but it wouldn't work on my laptop and it crashed my desktop big time. I'm afraid to try it again if it's the same and hasn't been fixed. Alton "Luck favors the prepared."

That's great..! Thanks. I can hardly wait to see what they say. Alton "Luck favors the prepared."

Thanks, Peter. Your reply answers my question about cumulative odds. Since my instructor has had 3,500 jumps, his odds of having had a fatal jump is about 3.4%. Actually pretty high. Alton "Luck favors the prepared."

I would like to continue my AFF training, but not locally because of interruptions in training due to weather and not wanting to wait until spring. I'm considering either Skydive Arizona or Skydive Perris. Are there any significant differences or advantages between them? It looks like the costs, presence of a tunnel, and distance from my home are the same between them. Thank you for any advice. Alton "Luck favors the prepared."

I thought factorials applied to increasing probabilities. Like the previous example of drawing an ace of spades from a deck of cards where a card is removed each time if it isn't the ace of spades. Or, the chance of getting a "6" when you roll a die six times. Or 6 factorial, since you stop if you get a six. Perhaps factorials do apply to skydiving since the probability stops if you get killed. I don't know the answer. It's been way too long since taking basic statistics. I believe the original post was simply a question about the more you jump, is there an increasing chance of eventually having a fatality, not counting increasing or decreasing your odds by experience, swooping, etc. I believe there is based on cumulative odds, but it can be modified both ways by changes in behavior, training, equipment, or technique as most of the posts have pointed out. As a several posts mentioned, statistics are based on populations or groups and shouldn't be used for assessing an individual's risk. I disagree. That's how statistics are used They can be applied to an individual. "Hey doc, what is my chance of dying of my pancreatic cancer?" Well, your chances are "x" based on statistics from a population of patients with pancreatic cancer IF you don't do anything to change those statistics (surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, etc.). I agree, the odds of a fatal jump (statistics) are constantly changing for an individual skydiver. Alton "Luck favors the prepared."

Each individual jump risk is the same and independent of other jumps. Like flipping a coin. Each time you flip it, the chance is 1 in 2 that you will have heads. However, the chance that if you flip the coin 6 times you will never see heads is only ? 1 in 64 or 2 to the 6th power. So lets pretend for a minute that your chance of getting killed skydiving is 1 in 2 each time you jump after removing all variables like swooping, wing suits, etc. It remains 1 in 2 every time you jump. However, after 6 jumps, your chance of being alive is only 1 in 64. This is the question I have about cumulative risk. Alton "Luck favors the prepared."

Thanks, Erdnarob, for these numbers. More reassuring. I see from your profile that your occupation is math. It's been a long time since I took statistics in school. I vaguely recall a formula for cumulative risk. i.e. if the risk is 1 in 100,000 of getting killed on a single jump, what is the risk of getting killed in 1,000 jumps. I don't believe it remains 1 in 100,000 nor is it simply 1,000 in 100,000 or 1 in 100. Do you recall the formula? I know on any single jump, the risk is the same, but isn't there a cumulative risk over time? I think this is the point of the original post. Alton "Luck favors the prepared."

True. The number of jumpers is from USPA statistics showing 28 fatalities in a group of 110,000 jumpers. As you point out, most fatalities, according to the USPA, involve experienced skydivers with many jumps. So, perhaps I'll remain a student forever. It's safer and plenty exciting for an old fart like me. Thanks for the clarification of the risk. Alton "Luck favors the prepared."

As an avid motorcycle rider, I easily ride 10,000 - 15,000 miles a year. I looked at the safety statistics when trying to decide whether to take up skydiving. I had to convince the wife it was as safe as riding. This is what I came up with: There are about 110,000 skydivers making jumps a year in the US. Last statistic showed 28 died for a fatality rate of about 25 per 100,000 participants. There are 6,580,000 licensed motorcyclists in the US with about 4,810 fatalities in the US. Thus the fatality rate for riding a motorcycle is 73 per 100,000 participants. Or nearly three times the fatality rate of skydiving. Of course, as mentioned, there are many factors which affect an individual's risk in both sports. But, bottom line, 1 out of 1961 motorcyclists will have a fatal accident compared with 1 out of about 4,000 skydivers. That's the only comparative statistic I could come up with, but it satisfied the wife. However, I don't know what the risk is of participating in both. I am very safety oriented when I ride and my moto is "luck favors the prepared". Alton "Luck favors the prepared."

Hey, SkyPainter I'm 61 and just starting. Unforunately, operations are grinding to a halt for the winter here. In my case, I've wanted to skydive since I was 18, but age and then family and job responsibilities made it crazy for me to jump. Now that I'm an old, retired fart without any responsibilities, it's no longer crazy. I'm in the process of joining POPS and SOS and I hope to take a long vacation in Arizona this winter to continue my training. Alton "Luck favors the prepared."

I'm guessing you have to enter a serial number for the full program rather than demo mode. You probably get the serial number for $29. However, I couldn't get the demo mode to work on my laptop and it completely crashed my desktop computer. Alton "Luck favors the prepared."