base698

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Everything posted by base698

  1. base698

    covid-19

    I bought the Raven-M when it came out. As I was flipping through old Parachutists I noticed a trend. "Reserve exploded on deployment, operating outside limitations." I sold it and bought a PD Reserve. In the same time frame I called ParaGear to order a Crossfire. They said they were worried about it and had stopped selling it for the time. Turns out it had a defect causing them to collapse. If it hasn't been out five years you're a test jumper. It's a similar sentiment, but if I suggest the new exit, I'll gladly go first. I'm not going to throw a kid off to make sure it's safe.
  2. base698

    covid-19

    Not exactly. I'm saying don't use children as a test bed. There's obviously a calculation in an emergency with those at risk. The original pushback I was giving was totally in the context of making children vaccinated with something that is by any reasonable measure new. By all means test it in the obese, the nursing homes. It is warranted. Just not on kids.
  3. base698

    covid-19

    Clinical trials have thousands of people. Even if you had clinical trials for say 2 decades. The number of people exposed to the vaccine (assuming no large changes) would be very small compared to 160 million people. People are very different: some abuse tylenol, alcohol, avocado. Some live in areas with higher air pollutants. Some have abnormal genetics like missing chromosomes. Some have skydiving injuries with unusual hardware. Trials cannot by sheer numbers test all of these things. In addition to the ingredients of the medication, a supply line for materials has to be created to supply the product to the nurses and doctors giving it. Supply lines can have contamination or other quality issues involving the ingredients (there are at least 2 of these issues with the current vaccines). You've also got processes around administering the drug. The mRNA vaccines require cold storage for example which is different. New processes require training. Mistakes can be made in the beginning. Bugs exist for any product. Errors in manufacture, transport, and administering are going to happen in higher quantities for something just hitting the market.
  4. base698

    covid-19

    The moment it hit the bodies of 160 million people it dwarfed any testing done in the previous years, decades or centuries. Products exposed to the reality of launch with real customers encounter edge cases and issues testing doesn't uncover. Reformulations occur over time, changes in manufacturing process. They did not have supply lines, training up for these vaccines longer than maybe a year. Those count too. Not just the medical formulation. Though that has an apparent bug as well. Note the numerous contamination that have happened--one posted above.
  5. The US government printed 40% of all dollars in existence last year. They are still doing QE to the tune of $120 billion a month. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL > Only with accurate prices expressed in a common medium of exchange is it possible for people to identify their comparative advantage and specialize in it. Specialization itself, guided by price signals, will lead to producers further improving their efficiency in the production of these goods In response, Bitcoin has rocketed to around $50K going as high as $63K (1000x since start of thread). In the Ethereum realm DeFi has been all the hype. Decentralized exchanges like Uniswap and Sushi earn fees for users providing liquidity as well as providing lending and borrowing services. Some interesting anecdata: A local agricultural company that is one of the largest citrus producers in the country holds Bitcoin. They use it to settle payments cross border. Don't have to get bank approval, can do it on weekends. Someone that hires lots of migrant workers holds classes for how to send crypto instead of Western Union. Hard money appears to be here to stay. > It was hard money that financed Bach's Brandenburg Concertos while easy money financed Miley Cyrus's twerks. -- The Bitcoin Standard
  6. base698

    covid-19

    Seriously. Maybe we add exceptions for skydiving? Hook it in and your medical bills could be in the millions of dollars. Why should my insurance pay for your irresponsibility? Next maybe we can do motorcycles. Anyone having fun outside of Disney approved centers doesn't get health insurance.
  7. base698

    covid-19

    Drug interactions are vastly complicated and realistically you can't test every case. What people eat or drink could have an effect. Their genetics. Other medicines they are on. Pollutants in the environment. Age and time. Their is a trade off at some point where they feel good enough and release to the public. That first year of release if it's popular is going to dwarf all testing ever done by orders of magnitude. Not just theoretical. Look at all the drugs that have made it through trial and were later pulled. The ones I mentioned above. I'll add Acutane to the list. There are dozens.
  8. base698

    covid-19

    Pharma has had some pretty high profile controversies showing they are willing to kill 100s of thousands of people in the name of profit. My two favorite: Vioxx and the Opioid Epidemic. Remember safe and effective non addictive Oxycontin? When the Covid mRNA vaccine has been out a few decades like most of the vaccines on that list, maybe. Assuming they work, which seems to be debatable [1]. Something like 300 kids have died from covid since the start of the pandemic. About a thousand die of the flu every year--flu vaccines are not on that list. Any 1.0 product has bugs. Bugs in manufacture [2], dosing, environment. Medicines in particular have populations of people that are more at risk/shouldn't take it. Maybe you're excited to have children be a profit center and test bed for some Pfizer exec. I'm not. [1] https://www.thedailybeast.com/ultra-vaccinated-israels-debacle-is-a-dire-warning-to-america [2] https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/japan-stops-use-of-1-63-million-moderna-doses-over-contamination-2518827
  9. BTTT https://www.schatz.senate.gov/download/air-tour-and-skydiving-safety-improvement-act-of-2020
  10. Sheryl Sandberg is one of the most dangerous, damaging executives: Galloway http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5853354857001/ Scott Galloway has a pretty strong case for breaking up Facebook and Amazon. There's a longer set of talks outlining his arguments one is a TED talk if interested.
  11. > Hey, I'm living in San Fran, or Seattle, aren't I cool being part of the revolution? having access to 1000s of tech jobs with the best talent and I'm making up to 4 times as much as I would in my home state. Wow, this place is really expensive and I'm tired of having three roommates so I'll move someplace else. Once I'm there, I'll lament about how it's not like 'X' and join the campaign to 'FLIP THIS PLACE BLUE!' FTFY
  12. Do you often brag about your highly visible and embarrassing public failures? When you lose ~$38 million?
  13. Throwing good money after bad. There's a lesson in there. Sunk cost fallacy and all.
  14. Some of us were lucky enough to get our money back with a charge back. Thanks Chase!
  15. $7300 a Bitcoin = a return of 144x return since the thread was started when Bitcoin we're $50 each. Bitcoin futures upcoming: http://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2017/10/31/cme_group_announceslaunchofbitcoinfutures.html/
  16. It also wasn't open when I went last week because it was allegedly damaged during operation. Not sure when it will reopen.
  17. ^ Are those tunnels the 12 ft lower ceiling variety? I heard they turned Airbourne on, but that there are lingering issues. I'd personally be surprised if it's open for real prior to iFly Oceanside which is already a hole in the ground. https://www.facebook.com/iflyoceanside/
  18. Anyone have any updates? A couple of months back I saw a picture somewhere showing it was a whole in the ground. Bet all the rain is probably bad for construction.
  19. Taking a business trip and wondering what are the tunnels to definitely see? Right now Poland, Austria, Slovakia, and Czech Republic are on the list. Cheers
  20. Yeah, I saw the Airbourne building yesterday for the first time. I just wonder if it's now an iFly building and they are waiting to put their parts in it.
  21. Also, makes me wonder about the other San Diego tunnel: Airborne. They have been quiet the last few weeks.
  22. Please close. My wallet can't take it. So pretty. So fast.
  23. Not to mention lasts way long because its not F111.