base698

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Everything posted by base698

  1. base698

    covid-19

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-021-00779-5 "Life finds a way" Who could have predicted that?
  2. base698

    covid-19

    CDC published data of vaccinated vs not, even with age groups. https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1448826680043212802 https://www.fastcompany.com/90687783/chances-of-getting-covid-after-a-vaccine-cdc-tool-shows-breakthrough-cases-for-pfizer-moderna-jj
  3. base698

    covid-19

    Yeah woops. Missed a zero. Good catch. Anyone know what the ratio of hospitalized to death is? Iirc it was something like 10x.
  4. base698

    covid-19

    I personally would not choose or fret over < 100 in 100k risk between two options. Second I have not seen anything stating hospitalization rate exceeds 2 in 100k for under 18. At the worst rate. If you go by current CDC deaths the number under 18 is 499. 74 million kids. .0000067 chance chance of death. Say 100x more kids are hospitalized than die and that doesn't even get you to 37 in 100k. As stated hospitalization rate includes people testing positive but admitted for other things. So therefore it's lower.
  5. base698

    covid-19

    A minute risk in 100k of one of the side effects of both. There have been other risks and there is still some unknown risk which is impossible to quantity. Hospitalization with covid could mean someone broke their arm with a positive PCR test. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/covid-hospitalization-numbers-can-be-misleading/620062/ But there are many COVID patients in the hospital with fairly mild symptoms, too, who have been admitted for further observation on account of their comorbidities, or because they reported feeling short of breath. Another portion of the patients in this tally are in the hospital for something unrelated to COVID, and discovered that they were infected only because they were tested upon admission. Even if it is actually 37 in 100k anyone worrying about a 37 in 100k risk rate should never leave the house and certainly should never have done a skydive in their life.
  6. base698

    covid-19

    https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2019/10/big-pharma-continues-to-top-lobbying-spending/ Drugmakers have spent more than $129 million through September, slightly down from nearly $133 million at this time last year, but still far more than any other industry
  7. base698

    covid-19

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/12/briefing/covid-age-risk-infection-vaccine.html The chart there shows under 1 in 100k for all unvaccinated up to age 50. Way under 1 for under 19. It's based on one location: Seattle which is obviously more healthy on average than Mississippi. > As a point of comparison, the annual risk of death for all vaccinated people over 65 in Seattle this year appears to be around 1 in 2,700. The annual average risk that an American dies in a vehicle crash is lower — about 1 in 8,500 — but not a different order of magnitude.
  8. base698

    covid-19

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v1 Post-vaccination CAE rate was highest in young boys aged 12-15 following dose two. For boys 12-17 without medical comorbidities, the likelihood of post vaccination dose two CAE is 162.2 and 94.0/million respectively. This incidence exceeds their expected 120-day COVID-19 hospitalization rate at both moderate (August 21, 2021 rates) and high COVID-19 hospitalization incidence
  9. base698

    covid-19

    You're averaging over all age groups. My number is specifically younger men 16-19. In over 85 about 1 in 5 die of covid. In under 18 since beginning of 2020 only 499 have died (less than 1 in 100k).
  10. base698

    covid-19

    https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/10/covid-vaccine-related-myocarditis-rare-usually-mild-studies-say > The myocarditis risk difference between the first and second dose was 1.76 cases per 100,000 people (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33 to 2.19), or less than a 0.002% incidence. The largest difference was among male recipients 16 to 19 years, who had 13.73 cases per 100,000 people (95% CIs, 8.11 to 19.46)—but even that level amounts to only a 0.014% incidence. 13 in 100k is worse than the covid rate which is why it's being suspended for those under 30 in non-pharma owned states. Moderator warning - BASE698 has demonstrated that he is a poor source of COVID-19 information.
  11. base698

    covid-19

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-pauses-use-moderna-covid-19-vaccine-young-men-2021-10-07 Good thing Pfizer is dosed at about 30% of the Moderna "vax". Iceland has banned Moderna as well.
  12. base698

    covid-19

    This is a web archive snapshot for vaccine from 2016: a preparation of killed microorganisms, living attenuated organisms, or living fully virulent organisms that is administered to produce or artificially increase immunity to a particular disease https://archive.is/zrsMV
  13. base698

    covid-19

    Vaccines are really old using actual live virus. Despite mechanics of it presenting an antigen it's different enough I'd argue for a new word. Harmonic mean! It's always exciting to find uses for that in real life. Now when my kid yells at me about what this math is for I can tell him it's for arguing on dz.com.
  14. base698

    covid-19

    Then why are you adding them? You could take the harmonic mean. 2/(1/1.3)+(1/2.9) which gets the value they show, ~1.9 when selecting all under 18.
  15. base698

    covid-19

    It is impressive they got through the red tape of the FDA to deploy it at all. The horse paste is a bit of propaganda too, considering ivermectin won the Nobel prize for parasites in humans and some doctors are prescribing it. There is the errant person using vet meds for it, but it's disingenuous. That said I have no opinions on its effectiveness against covid and wouldn't take it myself.
  16. base698

    covid-19

    Straw man. In a base environment the main danger is the wall you just jumped. So to prevent accidents you take longer delays, run and push harder. A reserve does nothing but add complexity and the nature of accidents doesn't make them effective for most jumps. If you're only jumping 3000 feet walls with a wingsuit and pulling high, take a reserve.
  17. base698

    covid-19

    It's not cumulative. You can say the whole population under 18 has 2.9 rate for simplicity in your favor or combine them which it appears the site does if you select under 18 only resulting in true value of 1.9.
  18. base698

    covid-19

    Where are you seeing 4.3? I only see 2.9 now (up from 2.6) since they got more data.
  19. base698

    covid-19

    https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/covid19_3.html It doesn't look like moving/long term average to me. The child averages are the same in 2020 and now, as I have said over and over which doesn't seem to imply delta is some how worse on them. The 65 and over crowd has way less hospitalizations which seems to imply the vaccine has some effect (or delta is less severe). But they don't breakout cases of delta vs alpha in most of the data so who knows.
  20. base698

    covid-19

    What I meant to post in my lack of sleep article from above: https://www.newsweek.com/leaky-vaccines-may-create-stronger-viruses-357575 This: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7058279/ more recent article involving chicken vaccines. Seems to say: "Better to get vaccinated because it reduces transmission". Since going back and reading my posts I think I didn't really explain my point and I linked an article, so I'll do it here. Every organism responds to selection pressure. If you plate bacteria on medium with antibiotics, increasing the concentration at each plating, in just a few generations they will be immune to the antibiotic. All of the covid 19 vaccines are single antigen--not a vaccine. A single spike protein received indirectly by the mRNA or directly by manufacture and growing with adenovirus. I'm not aware of any mechanics in their construction that would prevent new virus from emerging like every other biological organism. Maybe it's something about covid 19 that makes not subject to evolution? Weird since it seems to have come from bats. You could still make the argument in favor of taking the vaccine for at risk, but what happens when 4 new variants emerge? Then four new variants off that? What is the production/research capability to build out new mRNA vaccines for increasing number of variants? How much GDP would you have to use? Maybe we can stop production of everything else and just make mRNA vaccines? Or maybe I'm missing something about the evolution of covid, virus, and vaccines. I assume you're implying something about the NY cases? Why did they have so many fatalities early relative to every other city and state? My understanding it was the treatments developed. Doctors were initially scared to just use high flow oxygen in fear it would infect everyone. By may they knew vent first and ask questions later wasn't the best treatment method.
  21. base698

    covid-19

    Why then is the CDC number 2.3 to 2.6 per 100k? Is that number attributed to more cases or more infections? Assuming zero had covid the rate is basically the same between now and 2020 peak in 5 to 17 yr olds.
  22. base698

    covid-19

    I've had wine, haven't read it yet, but leaving for tomorrow: https://mobile.twitter.com/BrendanEich/status/1441082279225298945
  23. base698

    covid-19

    Its from the WebMD article. The link is the CDC data from my screenshot.
  24. base698

    covid-19

    I'm on parental leave and have sporadic access to mobile internet. Its on my list :)
  25. base698

    covid-19

    See above. A rate of 2.6 per hundred thousand equals 2000 hospitalizrd kids if all 77 million kids contracted covid. Not even considering, some kids are vaccinated, a lot had covid and have immunity and the rate is half for children under 5. Having 2000 kids in the hospital the same week seems impossible.