aonsquared

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Posts posted by aonsquared


  1. 15 minutes ago, turtlespeed said:

    Of course I do.

    What percentage of the populace paid for private insurance?  I cannot find the data.

    I do know that not all places cover private insurance and in small towns it is all but unheard of.

    I did not realise you were making this about private vs nationalised healthcare.

    In any case, how will doctors choose in the US when they run out of hospital beds and ventilators? Who's covered and who's not? Is that "orders of magnitude better"?


  2. 2 minutes ago, turtlespeed said:

    Which would you rather have making life or death decisions for you and your loved ones?

    Doctors, even ones you do not know, but a chance that it will be your PCP? . . . .or someone from the Trump administration?

    Like I told Wendy . . . Can You Just imagine ? ? ? - Say this out loud - I am SO HAPPY that the Trump Administration is in charge of our healthcare!!

    You do know that private insurance also exists in Italy right?


  3. Well, for at least one study, chloroquine was NOT game-changing at all: http://subject.med.wanfangdata.com.cn/UpLoad/Files/202003/43f8625d4dc74e42bbcf24795de1c77c.pdf

    TL;DR: 1 group was given 400mg chloroquine per day, control group no chloroquine. Of the chloroquine group, 13.3% proceeded to test positive for covid-19, one case developing into a serious case.

    Of the control group, 6.7% of the group went on to test positive for covid-19. No cases were serious.

    More studies are probably needed, but this seems to be a bit of a setback.


  4. Just now, airdvr said:

    You're making a huge assumption that all numbers are known.

    I think you're being confused between China and South Korea.

    You can absolutely distrust China.

    But South Korea is a democratic, capitalist country, and most of all a staunch ally of the US. Remember the Korean war? China and South Korea are NOT the same country!!!

    South Korea did a LOT more testing (more than quarter of a million tests) so if the numbers are uncertain...it's that the US numbers are underestimated. For their cases:

    image.png.de211c5f13f6ade0ac7d5c3edd00705b.png

    For the USA:

    image.png.68c4fd7637cb7f8e0abd20e4aa559614.png


  5. 4 minutes ago, airdvr said:

    We also have about 6 times the number of people here so the 5.5 factor is about right.

    It was 3.8 the day before yesterday, and 4.9 yesterday. I hope you see where this is going...


  6. 3 minutes ago, airdvr said:

    Think about the size of China for a second.  Do you really believe they know the real numbers?  Hell we don't know the real numbers here either.

    Where are you seeing 5.5 times the number infected?

    I was comparing South Korea (9,137) vs USA (55,081).

    I also don't trust China. But there are indications that the outbreak has been contained there, due to the fact that they are weeks and weeks ahead and if it wasn't contained, with the exponential projections it would be around 100,000 deaths a day. That would be impossible to hide even for them.

    Stolen from another forum:

    Quote

    You know, before China locked down all of Hubei on 23rd Jan, they were on the same ~25% growth, quadruple-every-week curve that a lot of Western nations are now. That curve started flattening out around 3rd Feb (in line with the 8-10 day case lead), showing that the lockout was really helping. But if it hadn't - if you assume they're lying about controlling their cases - then it's easy enough to calculate what the situation should look like there today.

    Assuming the reported ~20,000 cases on 3rd Feb, in the 7 weeks since, their cases would've skyrocketed by 4^7 or 16,384 times, to 327 million infections, and adding an astonishing 46 million more every day (though case growth might've peaked naturally in the near future). If their reported 2.3% death rate continued then they'd have close to 7.5 million dead by now, maybe 100,000 dying every day - quite probably a lot more, given that kind of massive overload of their healthcare system.

    That sort of scenario would be pretty hard to sweep under the rug, don't you think?

     


  7. 16 hours ago, turtlespeed said:

    Being the top of a class that is wholly failing

    Nope, as much as I respect John Hopkins, those ratings mean as much as "bookie odds" on which particlar horse will win a race. Sure there are favourites to win, but they actually have to race to find the winner.

    South Korea has flattened their curve, Singapore has flattened their curve. Sure the US was the favourite to perform best, but as we speak cases are increasing about 10,000 a day.


  8. 6 minutes ago, turtlespeed said:

    I'm hoping it's because we will be better prepared.

    Knowing what's to come - what preparation can the US do to avoid getting the healthcare system overwhelmed?

    1. Manufacture more PPEs, ventilators, etc? Yes this could be done
    2. Train more doctors and nurses? Takes years and years.
    3. Build 10x hospital bed capacity? China built a hospital in 10 days. Granted, quality was probably pretty bad, but it would be interesting to see the US match this.

    So the US can probably address the equipment shortage (1) quickly. But (2) and (3) will be challenging to address. There is of course, (4): reducing the number of infected via lockdowns. Which authoritarian China was structurally more oriented at doing.

    Good luck, you'll need it.


  9. 17 minutes ago, turtlespeed said:

    I'm not trying to be a smartass this time - are you serious that you believe that china is likely reliable now?

    China was at least 4 weeks ahead of the exponential growth curve that Italy was on. If they continued on the 5-day doubling rate they would have more than 100 million cases by now. If 2% of those die, that's 2 million people and would completely overwhelm their healthcare system. A body count like that would be difficult to hide even for them.

    14 minutes ago, turtlespeed said:

    Wow - great national healthcare system they have. <sarcasm>

    I still haven't heard why Italy, specifically, is so high on the death toll list.

    Italy has one of the oldest populations (in terms of average age) in Europe. Go ahead and make fun of their overwhelmed healthcare system, because US-style healthcare is the best right? It's about to be tested like never before...I hope for your sake it's up to the challenge.


  10. 12 minutes ago, airdvr said:

    There are any number of possibilities not the least of which is he thought they were available.

    Your rampant TDS allows no possibility other than it was a blatant lie.

    Isn't it tiring to keep thinking of all these possibilities to excuse him?

    Sure they're possibilities, but usually the simplest explanation is the correct one.


  11. 11 minutes ago, turtlespeed said:

    Then we would be fighting over what risk is.

    (probability of event) x (consequences of event) = risk

    Don't fight over basic maths.


  12. Stolen from another forum:

    Quote

    The geographic origin of the virus is the among least important pieces of information about it at the moment. That information does not help treat the disease caused by the virus, it does not help develop a vaccine, it does not help reduce transmission rates, it does not help pay rent, it does not help pay grocery bills, it does not help maintain essential services, it does not help maintain order and it does not help keep people from getting cabin fever. So, no, knowing it's country of origin is not something you "need to know".

     


  13. 3 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

    “President Trump’s aggressive response and bold actions

    Doesn't seem bold nor aggressive to me:

    https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trumps-statements-about-the-coronavirus/

    Now I really hope a treatment or a vaccine is developed ASAP. I think everyone agrees that governments should help the scientists as much as possible, and when it's finally developed, use all government resources available to deploy it as widely as they can. (good luck saying the same about fighting AGW though...)

    There are some things you can't rush though - 9 pregnant women can't make a baby in 1 month and all.


  14. 16 minutes ago, airdvr said:

    How many sick people would collapse the healthcare system?

    Found this link: https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals

    Total number of beds is 924,107.

    If 60% of the US population gets infected, and 4.4% of those need hospitalisation, that's 8.6 million beds needed, about 10 times the number of beds the US actually has. If you're conservative and say 80% get infected, that's 11.5 million people needing hospitalisation.


  15. 53 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

    When is shows up in the statistics and not just the models, I will take another look.  
    (BTW, did you notice that one of the models had to assume a 5 degree C increase in temperature to detect attribution?)

    Unfortunately, as we have demonstrated earlier in this thread, you're unable to tell the difference between statistics and models.