snowmman 3
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snowmman 3
Quote
The probability of the money being at Tina Bar by random chance is astronomical
why is it astronomical? If it was found at Frenchman's Bar, is the probability the same? Are you saying that any find location is astronomical? Or just specific ones? If it was found at the I-5 crossing of the Columbia, would anything change?
Here's another question. Assume I'm Cooper and I want to plant some money such that it looks like I died. Assume I'm smart enough to realize that the FBI will get my LZ area reasonably close, and that they could be lying about how much they really know.
Where would you (Cooper) plant the money? Remember it needs to be found before it decomposes away.
Also:
how much would you plant?
snowmman 3
If people are looking at the photos of Brian Ingram on the snow covered "bank" at Sluggo's site, they need to realize those were not taken at the money find site?(I'm fairly certain). I think he was re-enacting the money find for photographers, at the time.
Note we have no reports of snow on the riverbank at the money find.
Those photos are from www.corbis.com and here is the caption that accompanies them. I have highlighted in bold the important part:
Boy Pointing out Mound in the Snow
Original caption: Vancouver, Washington: Brian Ingram, 8, uses his hand to show how he smoothed out the sand on Feb. 10, 1980, when he found three bundles of decomposed $20 dollar bills for photographer 2/15. Brian's father turned the money over to the FBI and when it was checked out, it was found to be identical to the money that was payed to hijacker D. B. Cooper on Nov. 24, 1971. The area where Brian is digging is approximately the same as to where he found the money.
Note we have no reports of snow on the riverbank at the money find.
Those photos are from www.corbis.com and here is the caption that accompanies them. I have highlighted in bold the important part:
Boy Pointing out Mound in the Snow
Original caption: Vancouver, Washington: Brian Ingram, 8, uses his hand to show how he smoothed out the sand on Feb. 10, 1980, when he found three bundles of decomposed $20 dollar bills for photographer 2/15. Brian's father turned the money over to the FBI and when it was checked out, it was found to be identical to the money that was payed to hijacker D. B. Cooper on Nov. 24, 1971. The area where Brian is digging is approximately the same as to where he found the money.
snowmman 3
Quote
The money and Cooper go together in a direct causal
link.
hmm. You might read up on how Brinks robbery money was found, if you're confident about causality being obvious.
http://www.fbi.gov/libref/historic/famcases/brinks/brinks.htm
I've always speculated that if the Brinks robbery was done today, they'd use George Bush masks. Just a guess.
(edit) I do agree that one's thinking on what's causal depends on whether you think Cooper lived or died. Pick one or the other and different theories make more sense.
snowmman 3
When I was a kid, out hiking in the middle of nowhere, I found a cardboard box with printing on it that identified it as holding weather balloon instruments, and requesting that if found, they be returned to an address.
I was saddened to find that the instruments were already gone, suggesting someone else had already found this thing, in the middle of nowhere...and before the cardboard had fully decomposed!
When we discuss astronomical odds, what are the odds that weather balloon instruments (which return to earth randomly) are ever returned? We can actually get data on this, I suspect...i.e. how many are returned, and the delays before they are returned.
I was saddened to find that the instruments were already gone, suggesting someone else had already found this thing, in the middle of nowhere...and before the cardboard had fully decomposed!
When we discuss astronomical odds, what are the odds that weather balloon instruments (which return to earth randomly) are ever returned? We can actually get data on this, I suspect...i.e. how many are returned, and the delays before they are returned.
377 20
You raise some really good points about the money and the bag Snowmman. Your scenario about the bag being held to Cooper not by direct point to point attachment but by residing within tightened loops of suspension line makes sense. That line is slippery and that mode of bag attachment is doomed to come apart in a high speed jet exit. A skydiver would probably forsee this and use a different means of attachment, perhaps cutting small holes in the bag to give entry and exit points for line.
I too wonder where the other bundles went. Hard to figure how just a couple of them got very neatly deposited at T bar and the others just disappeared. I can see how the bag may have remained closed on top after departing from Cooper during the jump. I know a few knots that would have kept it closed. Wish that TV show Myth Busters would take on a Cooper assignment. this stuff is right up their alley and would have a lot of viewer appeal. Is the show still being produced?
Your cow eats rocket story was interesting. I have a better one. A friend flying an old Navion (sort of a Bonanza calss private plane) suffered an engine failure and had to put it down in a huge flat cow pasture. The landing was good, gear down and it looked like there was no damage to the airframe. They left the plane and came back a week later to see if repairs could be made with the thought of flying it out. They were shocked. The cows had torn up the airplanes SHEET METAL to the point that it was beyond economical repair.
Just how large was your "model" rocket? Knowing you, it probably violated the SALT treaty.
I too wonder where the other bundles went. Hard to figure how just a couple of them got very neatly deposited at T bar and the others just disappeared. I can see how the bag may have remained closed on top after departing from Cooper during the jump. I know a few knots that would have kept it closed. Wish that TV show Myth Busters would take on a Cooper assignment. this stuff is right up their alley and would have a lot of viewer appeal. Is the show still being produced?
Your cow eats rocket story was interesting. I have a better one. A friend flying an old Navion (sort of a Bonanza calss private plane) suffered an engine failure and had to put it down in a huge flat cow pasture. The landing was good, gear down and it looked like there was no damage to the airframe. They left the plane and came back a week later to see if repairs could be made with the thought of flying it out. They were shocked. The cows had torn up the airplanes SHEET METAL to the point that it was beyond economical repair.
Just how large was your "model" rocket? Knowing you, it probably violated the SALT treaty.
2018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968.
labrys 0
QuoteWhen I was a kid, out hiking in the middle of nowhere, I found a cardboard box with printing on it that identified it as holding weather balloon instruments, and requesting that if found, they be returned to an address.
I was saddened to find that the instruments were already gone, suggesting someone else had already found this thing, in the middle of nowhere...and before the cardboard had fully decomposed!
The thing is that you have no way to know if the instruments were in the box when it arrived in the middle of nowhere.
That box might have been in someone's garage for months after it was emptied. It might have been sitting anywhere, empty, for god knows how long before you found it.
Owned by Remi #?
QuoteI finished reading all of Catch-22.
Sluggo was wrong. (post 2204) Snowden's parachute wasn't missing. Snowden was wearing it. The morphine Yossarian tried to give Snowden was missing, replaced by a note. Yossarian tried to give aspirin instead.
"There, there," said Yossarian. "There, there." He pulled the rip cord of Snowden's parachute and covered his body with the white nylon sheets.
"I'm cold."
"There, there." (End of chapter 41 "Snowden," pp. 463-4)
WRONG!
Sluggo was quoting the movie. At no time did he say book. We were all quoting movies. I don't watch many, but I love that one.
Sluggo
Web Page
Blog
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snowmman 3
QuoteQuoteWhen I was a kid, out hiking in the middle of nowhere, I found a cardboard box with printing on it that identified it as holding weather balloon instruments, and requesting that if found, they be returned to an address.
I was saddened to find that the instruments were already gone, suggesting someone else had already found this thing, in the middle of nowhere...and before the cardboard had fully decomposed!
The thing is that you have no way to know if the instruments were in the box when it arrived in the middle of nowhere.
That box might have been in someone's garage for months after it was emptied. It might have been sitting anywhere, empty, for god knows how long before you found it.
yes that's a good theory. Thinking about the distribution of probable causes, the idea that someone put an empty weather instrument box in the woods, far from a road, could make sense? Maybe they were packing their lunch in it.
But I think there were some dates on the box that gave a clue to when it was sent up. So there was probably more info that I've forgotten since then.
(edit) for instance, don't remember if balloon remnants were there.
Now imagine the odds, if there was some Cooper money in it!
or: Imagine the odds that we could actually figure out who Cooper was after 36 years! How can we calculate that!
377 20
QuoteWhen I was a kid, out hiking in the middle of nowhere, I found a cardboard box with printing on it that identified it as holding weather balloon instruments, and requesting that if found, they be returned to an address.
I was saddened to find that the instruments were already gone, suggesting someone else had already found this thing, in the middle of nowhere...and before the cardboard had fully decomposed!
When we discuss astronomical odds, what are the odds that weather balloon instruments (which return to earth randomly) are ever returned? We can actually get data on this, I suspect...i.e. how many are returned, and the delays before they are returned.
Snowmman,
I found one when I was a kid, made by the VIZ company as I recall. It had a big copper aneroid bellows driving an altimeter (bellows drove a pointer which served as a wiper on a linear potentiometer). It had hygrometer and thermometer sensors and a radio transmitter using a very small specialized UHF vacuum tube. I kept mine and played with it for years. I figured the data had already been received and it was badly weathered and unlikely to be suitable for reuse.
You can now buy much more sophisticated weather balloon sensor/transmitter packages unused (govt surplus) and dirt cheap (under $30). Some even have Loran C or Omega receivers to relay position data. Maybe buying one would sooth the lingering reget that someone beat you to the find and just left an empty box.
http://www.tinaja.com/bargains/sbmilit.asp
Wonder if someone found most of the Cooper money bundles at T Bar before the Ingram kid found his? That would explain a lot.
377
2018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968.
georger 197
photo is there now. same one everyone has seen before
but didnt take as evidence.
but didnt take as evidence.
snowmman 3
Quotephoto is there now. same one everyone has seen before
but didnt take as evidence.
uh. read my post. That photo is from www.corbis.com. You can find the caption for the photo there if you want. I reprinted it above.
Everything I read/see says that photo was not taken at the money find site. Are you saying you think it's at the money find site? why?
(edit) The picture was taken 2/15/80 according to www.corbis.com. By Max Guiterrez.
The money was found Feb 10, 1980, so the other money dig photos may have been between those two dates. (the others don't show snow)
I suppose it's remotely possible it snowed between 2/10 and 2/15 and maybe they went back to Tina Bar for the photo you show, and they photo'ed somewhere on Tina Bar. But seems doubtful to me?
"The area where Brian is digging is approximately the same as to where he found the money."
(edit) If the photo was taken 2/15/80 then there would have been a trench where the FBI/students excavated?
(actually we don't know when the other money-find dig photos were taken). But then they would have been able to take the photo at the trench. There is no trench in that photo you show.
The first news articles about the money find were 2/13/80 (I forget how long the Ingrams delayed before they got to the FBI)
So by the 15th, the money find location probably was still blocked off as a crime scene?
I just don't think that photo is at Tina Bar
georger 197
QuoteQuote
The probability of the money being at Tina Bar by random chance is astronomical
why is it astronomical?
> Key word is random chance. The money was found
at Tina Bar, not Frenchman's Bar. We must assume
the money was where it was found not by random
chance but as part of a process, because of a concrete
set of circumstances. Just as Ckret reasons the money
condition says it was protected somehow. Yes. If the
money had been found at I5 then some set of conditions would account for that. Had it been found in
Bejing something would account for that. Had it been
found on Mons Olympus on Mars - something would
account for that!
You must examine "immediate causes" first - if that
fails look for something more complex. In the case of Tina Bar the immediate causes are obvious: (a) the
money was in or near the Willamette-Columbia confluence. (b) The natural hydrological processes in
the area left the money at Tina Bar, because hydrologically gravity overcame the drainage forces active on the package to leave it stuck near the top
of the bank at Tina Bar.
You could also speculate the money arrived at Tina
Bar by washing down from further behind Tina Bar.
I actually looked at the terrain behind the bar. You
can see it in the photo attached. There is a steep incline behind Tina Bar. Maybe Cooper landed near there? That is one plausable theory except for the
fact the money and Cooper remains probably would
have been noticed further inland. So I opt for the
hydrological explanation because the Willamette-
Columbia Confluence does offer a mode of conveyance to Tina Bar .
If it was found at Frenchman's Bar, is the probability the same? Are you saying that any find location is astronomical? Or just specific ones? If it was found at the I-5 crossing of the Columbia, would anything change?
Here's another question. Assume I'm Cooper and I want to plant some money such that it looks like I died. Assume I'm smart enough to realize that the FBI will get my LZ area reasonably close, and that they could be lying about how much they really know.
Where would you (Cooper) plant the money? Remember it needs to be found before it decomposes away.
REPLY> If I were Cooper I would keep all the money
except for what I offered "my friend in time of need"
Tina Mucklow.
WILDCARD> except if I still wanted Tina Mucklow to
have some money and I knew of a place called "Tina
Bar" and so I left money for TINA at TINA BAR, intending to tell her later somehow. You wanted a comspiracy theory - there you have one! Or if he
wanted the world to know and did this as a sign to
tell us: "Im still alive!". Did Tina even have a badge that gave her name? I dont know.
Yes, something wierd like this is possible. It would have profound implications. But once again if Cooper
had donesomething like this he never would have left
the discovery to random chance and would have alerted somebody (somehow) to 'go look'.
You do come up with wild cards. (laughing)
Also:
how much would you plant?
georger 197
QuoteWhen I was a kid, out hiking in the middle of nowhere, I found a cardboard box with printing on it that identified it as holding weather balloon instruments, and requesting that if found, they be returned to an address.
I was saddened to find that the instruments were already gone, suggesting someone else had already found this thing, in the middle of nowhere...and before the cardboard had fully decomposed!
When we discuss astronomical odds, what are the odds that weather balloon instruments (which return to earth randomly) are ever returned? We can actually get data on this, I suspect...i.e. how many are returned, and the delays before they are returned.
REPLY> The odds are good that cards will be mailed
back after such finds, even by people who have stolen
the radiosonnes or whatever was in the packages. I
was in a group of youth who did such a study in the
1950's. Out of 13 helium baloons launched with mice
and other things attached 11 cards were returned.
We calculated the odds, with the help of our science teacher, presented the work and won the State's science fair and a trip to Argonne National Laboratories
in Chciago where we got to meet Robt Oppenheimer.
Ogden's Kosher Grocery supplied the baloons and the
helium. My grandmother's barn supplied the mice and a rat snake.
Things like that are done all the time.
snowmman 3
Quote
georger commenting on money plant theories:
But once again if Cooper
had done something like this he never would have left
the discovery to random chance and would have alerted somebody (somehow) to 'go look'.
Yes you're exactly right. If you look at the rest of the Cooper crime, you're right that Cooper would never rely on "random chance" like that.
How come I didn't realize that?
But then again, if it's guaranteed to be found, is it really random chance? One person's random, is another person's guarantee. That's why risk sports are fun. It's the perception of risk by another, that makes it fun, not real risk. Real risk means you die a lot.
georger 197
QuoteYou raise some really good points about the money and the bag Snowmman. Your scenario about the bag being held to Cooper not by direct point to point attachment but by residing within tightened loops of suspension line makes sense. That line is slippery and that mode of bag attachment is doomed to come apart in a high speed jet exit. A skydiver would probably forsee this and use a different means of attachment, perhaps cutting small holes in the bag to give entry and exit points for line.
I too wonder where the other bundles went. Hard to figure how just a couple of them got very neatly deposited at T bar and the others just disappeared. I can see how the bag may have remained closed on top after departing from Cooper during the jump. I know a few knots that would have kept it closed. Wish that TV show Myth Busters would take on a Cooper assignment. this stuff is right up their alley and would have a lot of viewer appeal. Is the show still being produced?
Your cow eats rocket story was interesting. I have a better one. A friend flying an old Navion (sort of a Bonanza calss private plane) suffered an engine failure and had to put it down in a huge flat cow pasture. The landing was good, gear down and it looked like there was no damage to the airframe. They left the plane and came back a week later to see if repairs could be made with the thought of flying it out. They were shocked. The cows had torn up the airplanes SHEET METAL to the point that it was beyond economical repair.
Just how large was your "model" rocket? Knowing you, it probably violated the SALT treaty.
REPLY> At an antique air museum I know they have
just finished restoring a Curtis Jenny, roll it out, ran
the engine, taxied around, did a short liftoff and set
it down for the night next to one of the buildings, and
closed the gate. Farmer at the far end of the same field let a couple of cows in for the night and when
they came back the next day ... their were tears.
Same exact thing.
georger 197
QuoteQuoteQuoteWhen I was a kid, out hiking in the middle of nowhere, I found a cardboard box with printing on it that identified it as holding weather balloon instruments, and requesting that if found, they be returned to an address.
I was saddened to find that the instruments were already gone, suggesting someone else had already found this thing, in the middle of nowhere...and before the cardboard had fully decomposed!
The thing is that you have no way to know if the instruments were in the box when it arrived in the middle of nowhere.
That box might have been in someone's garage for months after it was emptied. It might have been sitting anywhere, empty, for god knows how long before you found it.
yes that's a good theory. Thinking about the distribution of probable causes, the idea that someone put an empty weather instrument box in the woods, far from a road, could make sense? Maybe they were packing their lunch in it.
But I think there were some dates on the box that gave a clue to when it was sent up. So there was probably more info that I've forgotten since then.
(edit) for instance, don't remember if balloon remnants were there.
Now imagine the odds, if there was some Cooper money in it!
or: Imagine the odds that we could actually figure out who Cooper was after 36 years! How can we calculate that!
REPLY> The interesting thing about your metaphor
to baloons released into air streams is: the packages
are found. Mystery over.
ARE you SURE you aren't on the PAYROLL of Galen Cook.
You totally ignored the fact that the water rose when the snow melted 2 wks before the find. The only rising of water except the spring run-off that would have put water over the area the money was found in. DOCUMENTED - by a man who paid the big bucks - Tosaw.
You totally ignored the fact that the water rose when the snow melted 2 wks before the find. The only rising of water except the spring run-off that would have put water over the area the money was found in. DOCUMENTED - by a man who paid the big bucks - Tosaw.
Copyright 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 2013, 2014, 2015 by Jo Weber
377 20
QuoteAt an antique air museum I know they have
just finished restoring a Curtis Jenny, roll it out, ran
the engine, taxied around, did a short liftoff and set
it down for the night next to one of the buildings, and
closed the gate. Farmer at the far end of the same field let a couple of cows in for the night and when
they came back the next day ... their were tears.
Same exact thing.
Cow: ground to ground air breathing anti aircraft missile. Maybe we should have carried them in B 17s and parachuted them onto German airfields in WW 2.
2018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968.
Why do I feel like I am in the middle of a skyjacking? In 2008? 
No, No, it's not a plane it's a computer with Galen Cook as the Pilot and Carr riding shotgun. Snowmman jump man - it is your only escape. Not one soul on board realizes what is happening.
![[:/]](/uploads/emoticons/dry.png "[:/]"){kind=small}
Sluggo - Safecrack - help - the highjackers are getting away - they don't want the loot - they want the darn plane. Geeze! That plane sure looks like a computer.
By Golly - Gee Whiz - what is a Gal to do - just sit there and have a drink -Opps, I forgot I can't drink.
Copyright 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 2013, 2014, 2015 by Jo Weber
snowmman 3
QuoteARE you SURE you aren't on the PAYROLL of Galen Cook.
You totally ignored the fact that the water rose when the snow melted 2 wks before the find. The only rising of water except the spring run-off that would have put water over the area the money was found in. DOCUMENTED - by a man who paid the big bucks - Tosaw.
I am not on Cook's payroll. He is however part of the syndicate, and has a share. In fact we all have a share, including you.
Jo, I've been meaning to ask. Did you edit a post of yours recently to remove the words "felt xxx xx" and replace with something else? I'm not sure if my mind is playing tricks on me.
We have pictures of the water level soon after 2/10/80 and the dig location. Are you saying that the vertical elevation between the water level and the money find on 2/10/80 is equal to the difference in columbia river height in the two weeks before the money find?
Those water heights might be documented and findable. You say Tosaw did this. Is it in Tosaw's book? I have it and will look it up. I don't think it's in there though?
I'm not clear why we care about water levels immediately before the money find though. I don't think the decomposition and small bill pieces point us in that short term direction. As you know I've been focused on min-max lifetimes of the money at Tina Bar. I would be more interested in water levels over the previous 1-5 years.
Jo said:
Snowmman said:
These are documented - the brothers who own the Fazio farm and the fisherman - all stated that the ONLY time the water had been to that level within the last yr (preceding the find) was the spring run off and the melting of the snow 2 WEEKS prior.
Did you sleep thru that post? - go back and read it. Go to the news clips and interviews of the Fazio brothers and the local fishermen in the area. This is why that "whatever thing" is not making any sense. The brothers ran their cattle on that beach for water and they said there was NO WAY that the money was on that beach for more than a few days or a couple of weeks.
Farmers know their land.
As far as editing something is concerned - I have to place the post and then edit to make spelling and other errors. My browser or me won't let me do it before posting. I was quoting the words of the author of the article - as he quoted Coffelt. If I do spell check I loose the post.
QuoteYou totally ignored the fact that the water rose when the snow melted 2 wks before the find. The only rising of water except the spring run-off that would have put water over the area the money was found in. DOCUMENTED - by a man who paid the big bucks - Tosaw.
Snowmman said:
QuoteThose water heights might be documented and findable. You say Tosaw did this. Is it in Tosaw's book? I have it and will look it up. I don't think it's in there though?
These are documented - the brothers who own the Fazio farm and the fisherman - all stated that the ONLY time the water had been to that level within the last yr (preceding the find) was the spring run off and the melting of the snow 2 WEEKS prior.
Did you sleep thru that post? - go back and read it. Go to the news clips and interviews of the Fazio brothers and the local fishermen in the area. This is why that "whatever thing" is not making any sense. The brothers ran their cattle on that beach for water and they said there was NO WAY that the money was on that beach for more than a few days or a couple of weeks.
Farmers know their land.
As far as editing something is concerned - I have to place the post and then edit to make spelling and other errors. My browser or me won't let me do it before posting. I was quoting the words of the author of the article - as he quoted Coffelt. If I do spell check I loose the post.
Copyright 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 2013, 2014, 2015 by Jo Weber
snowmman 3
Quote
Farmers know their land.
That's true. My grandfather was a farmer, and what little I know of cows is because of that.
However, do farmers understand money decomposition in sand? Somehow you've decided that the most important fact here is water levels, in the short term. I'm not sure why. I guess because you believe the money would have been easily found, so couldn't have been there long, which is a separate issue from water levels. I'm not sure money 2" under sand is guaranteed to be found in less than a year though.
Somehow the state of the money has to be reconciled with farmer's wisdom. We can defer to the farmers if you want. But we don't have to.
I'm also wondering if you're implying that all other garbage on Tina Bar within 2" of the surface was found and removed. The money was not much different than garbage. If other garbage was left there, why wouldn't the money be, and be ignored? It wasn't easily recognizable as good stuff.
snowmman 3
I'm throwing this out based on Jo's comments.
It's possible that the max lifetime of any garbage on Tina Bar within 2" of the surface is less than 1 year. I don't know.
It's possible it's more than that. I don't know. So somehow one can form an opinion. There may be things unique to Tina Bar that affect this: cattle traffic, people traffic, water erosion, yearly dredging by the Fazio Bros. Sand Co. (although I believe they can't deposit spoils on the beach now, because of salmon spawning issues?)
There may be litter collection happening now. There may or may not have been in '71-'80.
The opinion may vary depending on the type of garbage: metal, wood, paper, food, plastic.
It's possible that the max lifetime of any garbage on Tina Bar within 2" of the surface is less than 1 year. I don't know.
It's possible it's more than that. I don't know. So somehow one can form an opinion. There may be things unique to Tina Bar that affect this: cattle traffic, people traffic, water erosion, yearly dredging by the Fazio Bros. Sand Co. (although I believe they can't deposit spoils on the beach now, because of salmon spawning issues?)
There may be litter collection happening now. There may or may not have been in '71-'80.
The opinion may vary depending on the type of garbage: metal, wood, paper, food, plastic.
no attachment. This sounds like a new photo. Please attach! remember you have to hit "upload" after you browse and pick the photo. Then "submit"
Although you've done it before successfully...?
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