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quade

DB Cooper

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"If Ckret is right and Cooper actually wanted to leave
right after liftoff at Seattle, then V23 is irrelevant."
++++

OK kids... this reminded me about the notion that Mr. Cooper intended to jump very soon after departure... and using common sense MAKES THE MOST SENSE. I am definitely of the opinion that this was his intent... and when that plan got messed up, his delayed bail out resulted in jumping into an unknown DZ...bummer!

It's been explored before probably, but were the known DZ's nearest the departure airport ever investigated... if there was such a drop zone near the airport I'd put money on the fact that our Mr. Cooper had jumped it before. I'm becoming less convinced that he planned to just pick a spot (especially given the low visibility) and jumped...

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Lastly, why do smoke jumpers use chutes today that they cannot effectively control, as was the case in Coopers jump? Or, do they use rounds they can control, which then comparison to Cooper's jump has no merit. If smoke jumpers do use rounds that cannot effectively be controlled, why? That makes no sense to me.



Bureau of Land Management (US Dept of Interior) smokejumpers use squares:
http://www.peoplelandandwater.gov/blm/blm_03-13-07_blm-smokejumpers.cfm.

Forest Service (US Dept of Agriculture) smokejumpers use slightly steerable rounds:
http://www.fs.fed.us/fire/people/smokejumpers/mccall/.

Mark

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Now, just looking at Sluggo's tic map Sluggo also issued a velocity breakdown for each leg between tics. I repost that below. Relating to fuel consumption,
how did 305 travel at 202.8 kts (19:57-58) then at
165 knots (58-59), and 243.6 at (20:01-02) then at
182.4 (02-03). I dont understand these large variations in air speed spearated by only 60 seconds each. Maybe that has something to do with fuel
consumption? I must not understand Sluggo's chart.
Thanks.



I think it's due to the plus or minus 1 NM stated error in the radar data and the fact that the tic-marks are all on the even minute (i.e. 20:11 as opposed to 20:11:15). That could produce a lot of variation right there. If the tic-marks were at 15 second deltas (about 0.7 NM each) you would probably get a much different picture. But alas, I'm just guessing. We still have absolutely nothing in the way of explanation for the chart. It was just plopped down on our table, and we made a lot of assumptions. I think they were reasonable assumptions, but assumptions none the less.

Maybe Ckret has some accompanying information that we don’t have.

Sluggo_Monster

REPLY: That's a good explanation. Thanks -

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Lastly, why do smoke jumpers use chutes today that they cannot effectively control, as was the case in Coopers jump? Or, do they use rounds they can control, which then comparison to Cooper's jump has no merit. If smoke jumpers do use rounds that cannot effectively be controlled, why? That makes no sense to me.



Bureau of Land Management (US Dept of Interior) smokejumpers use squares:
http://www.peoplelandandwater.gov/blm/blm_03-13-07_blm-smokejumpers.cfm.

Forest Service (US Dept of Agriculture) smokejumpers use slightly steerable rounds:
http://www.fs.fed.us/fire/people/smokejumpers/mccall/.

Mark



Thanks for the updated info Mark. Do you know why USFS still uses rounds? Seems to me that with proper training squares would do the job better than rounds would.
2018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968.

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I go to bed early and the forum explodes, great discussion. I am racing out the door, don't know if I have any time today for Cooper. Two things:

Don't think I am not being opened minded, we have little to no evidence in this case so we are creating facts based on reconstruction. Very tricky stuff in my world so it takes time and thought.

On that path, a question based on what I quickly read through. V 23 seems to me an "all or nothing" situation, either Cooper plays dumb in every aspect or he gives himself away.

Cooper configures the aircraft for the type of flight performance he wants. Relays to the crew he has knowledge of the aircraft (Tina stated Cooper seemed to know about the operations of the 727). Spots landmarks from the air and lets tina know (granted, not the end all be all but if you trying to hide your knowledge why say anything, there was no need).

So basically Cooper runs his mouth enough that the crew felt he had flight experience and the FBI did as well. But then when it came to something so important for the success of his crime, the flight path, he then becomes evasive to throw off investigators?

It has not added up yet, but I am waiting.

Sluggo,

as much as you would like to separate number crunching from knuckle dragging it can't be done in this case. Whatever your numbers tell us, in the end they have to overlay a human being. If the two don't mesh we have to find out why

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It does seem to make the most sense that Cooper wanted to jump right after the plane was airborne in Seattle. Therefore he didn't care about the planes route. However that theory poses some questions.

First, things don't go right so he can't jump right away. When ready, why didn't he tell them he had changed his mind and he wanted to go back to Seattle. When the plane goes back to Seattle he jumps.

Second, why didn't he jump as soon as he was ready. It appears he could have bailed in the area where the placard was found or earlier.

Third, if he doesn't know what V-23 is, if he doesn't really know where the plane is headed, if he doesn't really know where he is, why does he wait and jump where he did. For the money to get to where it was found by natural means, he almost had to jump when the plane was making the right turn as it passed Battle Ground.

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He didn't tell them "Don't crash the plane" either.
Maybe he didn't tell them because it was obvious they would take V23. i.e. it didn't even occur to him that he needed to spell it out.

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If by setting the parameters so there was no choice but V 23, why not just say, "fly V23" The planes path could be tracked in every way regardless of Coopers demands. So why not just say V 23? Cooper gained nothing by being evasive, he only set himself up for failure. By not declaring a flight path Cooper was the only one blind.

Why, for those forwarding this idea, are you not answering this question? Why? why? why? would Cooper not just tell the crew fly V 23, for the love of all that is good in this world please answer the question.

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Ckret,
In my opinion it’s “all about” the two turns. A 27º Left-Turn (at MALAY Fix) and a 24º Right-Turn (at the BTG VOR). Turns easily measured with (even a cheap) compass.


You could feel those two turns without a compass. The one thing if we are going with this theory that I would like to have is a stopwatch though, but like a compass in this case that is more of a backup tool to reconfirm what you suspect. It doesn't get much "easier" than this section of v-23 to do what Sluggo is suggesting.



Stopwatch doesnt help if air velocity varies wildly as
in Sluggo's tic chart ?


Sure it does. I calculate approximately 16 minutes covering a distance of 45.45 nautical miles giving me an average ground speed of 170.6 knots.

That being said over 16 minutes if we increase the ground speed from 170 to say 190 the plane only covers an additional 7 nautical miles. All the stopwatch would be used for in this case is to do a quick mental calculation to confirm that the turn I am feeling is in the approximate spot. Again, with turns this wide you wouldn't need either a stopwatch or a compass though. This is the perfect route for a poor man's dead reckoning.

As for the wide variation in speeds, as Sluggo has explained their is a degree of error in these calculations, but it is the best/only source of data to go off of. Actual variations likely weren't as high as some of the minute to minute calculations you can make from the data. Remember though, that 305 was being hand flown. The 727 had no auto-throttle and the pilots were very busy that night. I would expect some speed variations but in the long run it averages out.

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Sluggo said:
The winds were “out of 225 degrees” that is SW to NE.



by Orchard? are you sure? I thought that was the wind up by Ariel. I was assuming down by Orchard it would be more like the PDX winds. I suppose the Orchard winds have been posted before, but I've lost track.

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Sluggo said:
The winds were “out of 225 degrees” that is SW to NE.



by Orchard? are you sure? I thought that was the wind up by Ariel. I was assuming down by Orchard it would be more like the PDX winds. I suppose the Orchard winds have been posted before, but I've lost track.


The winds posted by Ckret were for Orchard. And that isn't too different from the PDX winds is it? I have never seen a wind direction from PDX that night only wind speeds.

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I love how a couple months back, it was rare to have people engage in discussion assuming Cooper was a rational actor.

Now the most minute aspects of his behavior are examined and required to have a rational explanation.

It's interesting. Why now, but not back then?

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Sluggo said:

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The winds were “out of 225 degrees” that is SW to



by Orchard? are you sure? I thought that was the wind up by Ariel. I was assuming down by Orchard it would be more like the PDX winds. I suppose the Orchard winds have been posted before, but I've lost track.


The winds posted by Ckret were for Orchard. And that isn't too different from the PDX winds is it? I have never seen a wind direction from PDX that night only wind speeds.



For PDX, I posted wind information averaged over '61-'90, to help give a high probability guess at the PDX wind direction that night. We had a discussion how it was high probablity, given the measured speeds, and rain/storm, that it was SE
I also published an NOAA weather map that showed S for the day at PDX on 11/24/71

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So basically Cooper runs his mouth enough that the crew felt he had flight experience and the FBI did as well. But then when it came to something so important for the success of his crime, the flight path, he then becomes evasive to throw off investigators?

It has not added up yet, but I am waiting.



Incredible dufus or diabolical genius. Pinky or The Brain.

Is it possible that he was somewhere in the middle, just an average guy that had learned just enough to be dangerous and, for the most part, just winged it?

I've still seen nothing that suggests otherwise.
quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

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I've still seen nothing that suggests otherwise.



you're posing a question that can't be answered. You can't observe Cooper's actions that night and know Cooper.

I'm surprised people get frustrated by this.

It makes me wonder why people think they could understand Cooper solely based on the events of that night? Isn't that an even more insane proposition?

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Sluggo said:

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The winds were “out of 225 degrees” that is SW to



by Orchard? are you sure? I thought that was the wind up by Ariel. I was assuming down by Orchard it would be more like the PDX winds. I suppose the Orchard winds have been posted before, but I've lost track.


The winds posted by Ckret were for Orchard. And that isn't too different from the PDX winds is it? I have never seen a wind direction from PDX that night only wind speeds.



For PDX, I posted wind information averaged over '61-'90, to help give a high probability guess at the PDX wind direction that night. We had a discussion how it was high probablity, given the measured speeds, and rain/storm, that it was SE
I also published an NOAA weather map that showed S for the day at PDX on 11/24/71


I think Crket has winds aloft for PDX too somewhere in that file...

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I've still seen nothing that suggests otherwise.



you're posing a question that can't be answered. You can't observe Cooper's actions that night and know Cooper.

I'm surprised people get frustrated by this.

It makes me wonder why people think they could understand Cooper solely based on the events of that night? Isn't that an even more insane proposition?



I think we're on the same page here, yet isn't that exactly what you and Sluggo have been trying to do?
quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

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377,

An aside here:

Looking at your sig line, and what Ckret feels he 'bounces between' (Johnny Utah and Johnny Castle) I think both of you should team up and see this production: "Point Break--Live!" :P

Being immersed in an FBI vs "skydiver" case might stimulate a bit of brain cells and help move -this- case along. :) You could fight over who gets to play Johnny Utah. :D

I'd never heard of this theatrical performance until yesterday (someone posted it in Bonfire)...but hey, it'd be a hoot to attend!

ltdiver


Don't tell me the sky's the limit when there are footprints on the moon

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I think it is possible that Cooper had no idea what V 23 was let alone how to get the crew to fly it without ever mentioning it explicitly.



I know nothing about aircraft routing. Any route would be coincidental.

If I was planning on jumping from a 727, I would ask for 10,000 ft because I would want to breathe for an indeterminate amount of time in an unpressurized cabin.

I would also ask for the plane to fly at a slower speed.
A 400mph exit would be "unpleasant".

I would ask for the same two things, regardless of anywhere that I was jumping. They do not point to route selection.

People should feel free to ignore the obviousness of that.

McCoy gave the flight crew a detailed flight plan because he had a pre-determined dropzone.

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I get to take the good and take the bad, I take them both and there you have the facts...... As I see them.



My my, I know that theme song. Can't figure out whether it is you or me showing our ages by knowing that :P
Skydiving: wasting fossil fuels just for fun.

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It doesn't look like Cooper carried any rope or rappeling gear so a reserve might be his only way down from a tree. Landing in a tree at night in cold rain suspended 20 or more feet from the ground is a very serious deal. If you just drop you can break bones or worse. If you dont get down you eventually die.

I used to be positive Cooper was a skydiver, but no more. His gear choice says a lot to me and none of it says skydiver.

377



Of course, if he wasn't a skydiver he also may not have known how to use his reserve to get down and may have panicked before figuring out. Ckret - serious question - were all the searches on the ground, or were people checking to see if anyone had got stuck in a tree too...?
Skydiving: wasting fossil fuels just for fun.

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I also think there is a high probablility that he had no prior felony criminal record. I stand ready to be proven wrong. Fire away.



Well, if he did then the FBI would have master prints on file. Ckret, forgive me if i missed it, but did you answer AggieDave's question of a while ago - were the prints ever run against [that fingerprint database whose acronym i have forgotten]?
Skydiving: wasting fossil fuels just for fun.

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I've still seen nothing that suggests otherwise.



you're posing a question that can't be answered. You can't observe Cooper's actions that night and know Cooper.

I'm surprised people get frustrated by this.

It makes me wonder why people think they could understand Cooper solely based on the events of that night? Isn't that an even more insane proposition?



I think we're on the same page here, yet isn't that exactly what you and Sluggo have been trying to do?



Hey I'm not even FBI and I can answer that.
The goal is to understand things Cooper did/said/behaved enough to help find him. You might be able to know Cooper more after you find him. Even that might be difficult.

But the goal is not to know Cooper based solely on the events. The goal is to find him. Confirm thru other means. Dismiss if wrong. Repeat.

When people start introducing the dufus theories or genius theories...I'm not sure why it aids in finding him. But maybe I'm missing something.

I think of skills displayed/required/not required. etc. Does that mean I need to know Cooper? Nope.

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1) I would imagine they looked in trees, it would make sense but i don't know what the search instructions were.

2) It is my understanding from going through the file(may be wrong haven't checked) that the prints are not of AFIS quality. I have not found anyhting in the file that shows they were run through the system.

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hat the prints are not of AFIS quality.



How long ago was that? What is considered AFIS quality has changed over the years, right? It would be cool to pop it in and have a CSI moment where the computer solves the case all of a sudden. Too bad its not all whiz-bang with awesome graphics.

Someday I'll get one of those magical printers that will print off great pictures and all sorts of information on whatever I need. It'll be instant and perfect.
--"When I die, may I be surrounded by scattered chrome and burning gasoline."

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Of course, if he wasn't a skydiver he also may not have known how to use his reserve to get down and may have panicked before figuring out.





Its a moot point. He didnt have a reserve.


bozo
Pain is fleeting. Glory lasts forever. Chicks dig scars.

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