Statistics for a worried parent

[diverds 0]

I don't know if this is the right forum for this but I thought it would be better then the talk back forum.

I started jumping 12 years ago. While my mom thinks it's great and has even made a tandem, my dad has always been very worried about it. I try not to bring it up around him, but because it consumes so much of my time it inevitably comes up. Every time it does I can sense this real fear from him that something is going to happen to me or my wife (she jumps as well).

I would like to find some good statistics somewhere that compare risks in different activities like skiing, scuba diving or even driving a car, to those of skydiving. I am not interested in opinions that are on some dz's website. I want to find hard facts that have been researched by some sort of reputable entity.

Does anyone out there know if such data exists and if so where I could get my hands on it? I hate seeing my dad worry more than he should.

Skydive Radio

[PhreeZone 15]

There just are'nt enough jumpers making enough jumps to make a good statistical base to compare to bigger industries like skiing and Scuba with their 50000+ people.

Making 1 jump as a tandem is clearly less risky then making 10000 sport jumps. There are only 26000 D licences issues over 25+ years... some of those are not still jumping, or jump less frequently then years ago. They tend to scew the figures too.

A big part of the risk factor can be controled by the jumper themselfs. Ie a VX 75 vs a Sabre 170, hooking or straight in approaches, jumping in night 300 ways or day time solos. There just are'nt good enough statistics and base numbers to beable to say you are X times more likely to die jumping then you are are watching TV at home. If you've been jumping for 12 years odds are you've seen a few people get hurt or worse.... you should be able to understand and translate the risk on that info alone. You've been jumping longer then most people do.

Yesterday is history
And tomorrow is a mystery

Parachutemanuals.com

[rgoper 0]

the WWW is a BIG place, do your homework, you'll find the stats your looking for.

--Richard--
"We Will Not Be Shaken By Thugs, And Terroist"

[kallend 1,623]

Try the rec.skydiving archives (use Google). There have been numerous threads on this subject, and a lot of data presented.

One thing I recall is that the loss in life expectancy due to making 100 jumps/year starting at age 20 is approx. 2 years, and the loss of life expectancy from smoking a pack a day starting at age 20 is approx. 6 years.

[Jimbo 0]

These statistics are rather old, but they might be helpful, or not. Through experience I've learned that statistics mean almost nothing to those who are convinced that skydiving is dangerous.

Anyhow: http://www.afn.org/skydive/sta/stats.html

I've found that when trying to convince friends and family that skydiving isn't as dangerous as they think it is the best way is to invite them out to the DZ. Take them around, introduce them to your friends, the DZO, etc.... Show them how a parachute works, show them how it works in relation to the rig. Give them a quick packing lesson, let them see other skydivers boarding the plane and getting gear checks, and finally, sit with them and watch a few loads land. Education is the key.

Just my $0.02 USD.

-
Jim

"Like" - The modern day comma
Good bye, my friends. You are missed.

[diverds 0]

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There just are'nt enough jumpers making enough jumps to make a good statistical base to compare to bigger industries like skiing and Scuba with their 50000+ people.

There really don't have to be that many people doing it to get good statistics. If you have an idea of how many people are conducting a given activity you can use a "per capita" comparison to other activities.

Skydive Radio

[PhillyKev 0]

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There really don't have to be that many people doing it to get good statistics.

Not really. The accuracy of tatistical analysis improves with a larger sampling base. For example, if you flip a coin twice, there's a pretty good chance it will come up heads both times. Could you therefore say that there's a 100% chance of it coming up heads? If you flip a coin 1000 times, you'll be much closer to a 50-50 split between heads and tails. Same thing with gambling. Even with low margin games like black jack, if you play perfectly according to probability, the longer you play, the closer you will come to the actual win/loss probability which always favors the house. Basically, the larger the sample the closer you come to statistical accuracy.

[diverds 0]

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Basically, the larger the sample the closer you come to statistical accuracy.

Agreed. I was just trying to point out that there do not have to be an equal amount of skydives made each year to be able to statistically compare it to any other activity.

Skydive Radio

[IronMike 0]

I am completly convinced skydiving is as risky as you make it. As a former airshow pilot, I have seen 30 people I know on a first name basis die in an aerobatic aircraft. Only one of those was due to no fault of his own and Im only 32....I have been skydiving 6 months. I know people with 200 jumps that have been severly injured and people with 9500 that have never been injured and had only 2 cutaways. If you stay within your limits, Skydiving is safe as hell. If you don't, it is like the sea, terribly unforgiving....You make your own stats.

Mike

[drenaline 0]

compare skydiving to driving a car, every day you get more than a 100 car accidents and more than 300 deads, in skydiving you get almost close to nothing it is so low that is hard to make the statistic.

Email USPA to see if they can help you with stats, or use the stats they have in theyr webpage and compare it with others.

HISPA 21
www.panamafreefall.com

[nigel99 143]

My wife is worried about the same thing - danger and a recent web search for stats brought up very little concrete evidence. But (I will try and find the link) I did find that skydiving is probably one of the most dangerous aerial sports with circa 40/100 000 jumps. Further investigation on the likes of skydivingfatalities.com which break down by accident type rather than a lump figure it drops down to about 4/100 000 accidents that were totally unavoidable on the part of the jumper. This does seem to mean getting out of student status ASAP, not jumping HP canopies, and generally being conservative

Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived.

[Remster 24]

My big issue with comparng stats between skydiving and other high risk sports is how do you define exposure in a comparative way?

1 jump is 1 jump. It lasts between 45 seconds and 75 seconds on average, plus 2 to 5 minute canopy ride. So lets take a comp to scuba.... do you compage on a dive to dive basis? to me, to would be unfair to scuba diving since 1 scuba dive lasts many times longer, and therefore you are exposed to the potential danger for longer...

then what? compare on a minute to minute exposure? Maybe, but I've never seen such comparaisons anywhere....

Lies, damm lies and statistics.....

Remster

[nigel99 143]

I have never thought of time of exposure...

I guess I am still satisfied that the risk/reward ratio is positive in terms of skydiving on my personal skydiving whereas the risk/reward on base jumping in negative in my personal scale (I have never looked at base stats though). So it probably boils down more to individual perceived risks than statistics can ever provide.

Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived.

[jtval 0]

SKYDIVERS HANDBOOK page 106(I've used this so often, I could probably recite it to you. but here it is verbatim) the version I am "reading" to you from is the 2000 edition.

THE NUMBERS. USPA figures reveal there are some 302,000 people participating in skydiving each year. 34,000 are active skydivers and the rest are students. Of the 3.2-million jumps made each year,268,000 are by students and the rest are by experienced skydivers.
over the past ten years, there was an annual average of 29 fatal skydiving accidents in the United States yielding a rate of one fatality for every 82,000jumps (at 3 jumps per day , this will take you quite some time) and one for every 3,800 participants. USPA estimates there isone fatality for every 30,000 student jumps. These jump figures can be compared wiht one fatality per 2,308 hang gliding flights and the one in 2,582 Americans who die each year in allaccidental deaths(91,000 out of a total U.S. population of 235,000,000 in 1983).
it should be pionted out that the above figures include all jumpers both those who observe safety procedures and those who take chances. the figures even include some documented suicides.

it is interesting to compare fatal accident numbers with other activities: in a recent yearover 105 people perished scuba diving,856 bicycling,over 7,000drowned(365 in bathtubs), 1154 succumbed to bee stings, four died playing basketball,1063 while boating,hang gliding lost 13, snowmobiling 60, water skiing 47, and 300 were even hit by lightning. then there are other transportation statistics to compare: in a recent year, 50,000 people were killed in highway accidents, there were 1,171 boating fatalities, 235 airline deaths and 1,164 light aircraft general aviation fatalites.

this a pretty useful book to learn from and to teach low timers and WHUFFOS! hope that helps..that was only 2 paragraphs but they should suit you fine for you inquiry! CHEERS

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[kallend 1,623]

Quote

My big issue with comparng stats between skydiving and other high risk
sports is how do you define exposure in a comparative way?

1 jump is 1 jump. It lasts between 45 seconds and 75 seconds on average,
plus 2 to 5 minute canopy ride. So lets take a comp to scuba.... do you
compage on a dive to dive basis? to me, to would be unfair to scuba diving
since 1 scuba dive lasts many times longer, and therefore you are exposed
to the potential danger for longer...

then what? compare on a minute to minute exposure? Maybe, but I've never
seen such comparaisons anywhere....

Lies, damm lies and statistics.....

This can be handled with no problem. Your exposure during the few seconds of any given jump is extraordinarily high, but you cannot be jumping continuously. What you are really interested in is the probability that you'll still be alive tomorrow, or this time next year. That make comparison between different activities fairly easy. Another way that actuaries use is to calculate the reduction in life expectancy due to participation in various activities. For example, making 300 jumps a year from age 20 on gives roughly the same reduction in life expectancy as smoking a pack a day from age 20 on.

Comparison with driving fatalities is also easy - the risk of dying in 1 jump is about the same as the risk of dying in driving somewhere between 1000 and 4000 miles (depending on whose figures you use).

A lot depends on age of the participant too. As an old fart (56) I am significanly more likely to die in the next 12 months of a heart attack getting out of bed in the morning than I am due to making 300 skydives. The same would not be true of a 20 year old.

Finally, what is an average skydiver? What are the effects of currency, canopy type, skydiving discipline, advanced training, etc. on risk? I don't think anyone knows because no-one bothers to collect and collate the information in a way suitable for analysis.

jk

[caseyusa 0]

Yeah dude the Skydiver's Handbook is some hardcore info, especially that quoted section on statistics. Good call posting that.

Also wanted to mention a book I got for Christmas... an interesting book called Skydivers, Flying with their Pants on Fire!

It's got some great statistics in there as well.

Another point, my dad went to a conference in DC that dealt with Risk Management. Seems HOSPITALS have the worse case of fatalities related to mistakes (excluding people just up and dying- actual mistakes). Its even higher than cars. Of course they get tough cases, but you can see why Malpractice insurrance is so high! I can find the lecture notes on it if anyones interested, had lots of comparisons between extreme sports, cars, and others.

On a less factual note someone help me out here. I heard this somewhere... its more likely to die riding a donkey in Mexico being struck by lightning, than to die skydiving...

Of course it makes sense, lots of folks in rural meeehico ride donkeys, and lightning strikes folks more often than we think (gotta love watching TLC.. makes you feel smart).

All in all, you're safer IN the sky than on the ground.

---
** Blue Skies, Yellow Mustard. **
It's like a farmer, out-standing in his field.

[Remster 24]

Thx John,

puts things in perspective....

Remster

[jtval 0]

there was an averaged fatality thing written somewhere that actually did it but the...numbers I. E.

deaths per 10,000 participants in each sport averaged for each....I though it was in the skydivers handbook(it may be I didnt read it agin to find it)
wherever it is when I had it it answered a lot of those ..."well everyone takes a bath in thier life at somepiont but not everyone skydives"
question.
even still I want to tell you that those skydiving deaths (as it says) includes suicides. but it also "MUST" include deaths such as heart attacks that werent neccessarily a splat death.
you may not want to explain that alot of deaths come from ppl trying to swoop to low. becuase that will make youre sprot look like one who loses all of its experience through attrition. this is only my guess but in recent years (2000-2002) i would guess more "injuries" (posibly more deaths)were caused by people trying to land fancy then any other aspect iof the sport. but that is just my guess

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[Iflyme 0]

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If you stay within your limits, Skydiving is safe as hell. If you don't, it is like the sea, terribly unforgiving....You make your own stats.

I couldn't agree more! Many (most?) of the skydivers injured or worse are pushing the envelope.

I think there are some numbers in "the skydivers handbook" that might help you out a bit. Oh yeah, my Dad has to leave the room if skydiving is even mentioned ... and I'm 40!

[hohonukai 0]

Know this is not helpful with statistics, but my mom has made a few jumps, static and tandem. While she understands it, my father was concerned and worried, told me to stop whenever he got the chance. Things changed a bit when I asked him to come watch me jump, which he did, came to the dz and watched me pack, I explained how my rig worked, equipment specifics and safety being the focal point. I sent him a video of a jump as well. Now is he still concerned, but not so much as before. He's even told me he showed the video to his friends, and told them how proud he was of me.

Just sharing something that helped me with my dad.

[goose491 0]

I've been told that about 87% of skydiving fatalities occur under fully-inflated/functional canopies. This goes along with what I tell any friends who question the safety of this sport: "most people who get hurt in this sport, do so because of their own mistakes or bad deccisions"

I've also heard that on average (meaning if your packer is sober) 1 out of every 1000 deployments presents a non-flyable mal. Reserve parachutes have outstanding reputability.

I find people are generally pretty impressed when I give them a good look at my gear and explain how it works. People just don't understand that we've come a long way since parachutes were nothing more than "free-fall deceleration devices"

My Karma ran over my Dogma!!!

[PhreeZone 15]

Spy38w has had 3 reserve rides before he had 100 jumps, Jessica has had 2 before 100. The stat is closer to 700 on average across all jumpers.

Last year just over half, not 87% were caused under a full canopy. Look in the March/April issue of Parachutist at the summery of all fatilities to get the most current numbers.

Yesterday is history
And tomorrow is a mystery

Parachutemanuals.com

[Spy38W 0]

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Spy38w has had 3 reserve rides before he had 100 jumps...

Now now, the third one was on jump 101...

--
Hook high, flare on time

[gale 0]

Well, not to get into a stats war or anything but the front cover of the Paragear catalog says 1 in 333 openings on a ram-air canopy results in a mal. I don't know where that's from but that seems reasonable to me.

Gale

I'm drowning...so come inside
Welcome to my...dirty mind

[goose491 0]

In a study conducted by the United States Hang Gliding Association comparing the accidental death rates of different activities, such as driving, power boat racing, scuba diving, mountaineering, boxing, aviation, hot-air ballooning and hang gliding, sky diving was found to have the lowest death rate per 100,000 participants.

Check out their site at http://ushga.org

My Karma ran over my Dogma!!!