tombuch 0 #26 October 12, 2003 QuoteI would like to know where you found that quote. It is incorrect as I'm sure you know. If Tom B. does not post a follow up I'll be surprised. Blues, J.E. I've been away for a while and just saw this thread. The following is taken from my article "Skydiving Risk" on the S&TA area of The Ranch web site at http://ranchskydive.com/safety/tb_article07.htm, and was adapted from JUMP! Skydiving Made Fun and Easy "...Skydivers will sometimes point to deaths in other sports or activities as a way of convincing people that jumping out of airplanes isn't all that dangerous. It is easy to look at 43,000 total motor vehicle deaths in 2000, and an average of just 33 skydiving fatalities each year, and believe that driving is more dangerous than skydiving. Yet, we should consider that the actual death rate for motor vehicles reported by the NSC in 2000 is .156 per 1,000 participants, while the fatality rate for active skydivers reported by USPA members is about 1.1 per 1000, based on ten year averages. The current worldwide three year fatality rate for tandem skydiving as reported by the Uninsured Relative Workshop is considerably lower, at .0042 per 1,000 participants, but that representation can quickly change with just one or two fatalities. So, skydiving can be accurately termed more dangerous than driving, or it can be shown to be safer than driving, depending on what data is used and how it is interpreted. We should always be very cautious when reviewing safety data and other statistical detail about skydiving, or any other activity. Statistics can easily be used to tell several conflicting stories at the same time, and should always be suspect..." For what it is worth, there have been tandem fatalities since the data was published, so the tandem number that looked so good when this was written are not so great anymore.-tb Tom Buchanan S&TA Author JUMP! Skydiving Made Fun and EasyTom Buchanan Instructor Emeritus Comm Pilot MSEL,G Author: JUMP! Skydiving Made Fun and Easy Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JustRelax 0 #27 October 12, 2003 The attached stats are from 1990 so they are a bit old. They show skydiving as safer than driving. The problem with these stats is that its a comparison between people who drive every day and not everyone skydives every day. But compared to other sports, such as scuba diving (more realistic, as both are recreational sports) these stats show skydiving as comparatively safe. The issue I think is that because skydiving is a life theatenning sport there is a high level of safety built in to compensate - so skydiving is dangerous, which is why we are so careful, that we can have better stats than other risk sports. Skydiving is an extreme sport where safety, training and attitude have a direct bearing on your survival! ________________________________________ Taking risk is part of living well - it's best to learn from other peoples mistakes, rather than your own. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
corso 0 #28 October 13, 2003 These are obviously favourable statistics however i am a strong beleiver that "There are three kind of lies, lies, damned lies and statistics" in short you can present most statistics that deal with little detail [deaths vs jumps] to make anycase you want. If we are going to rely on statistics surely it would be better to try and break it up a bit. Eg. Amount of deaths caused by driver error vs amount of death caused by pilot [body or canopy] error. Or compare mechanical failure. Also I think that it worth remembering that most car accidents involve more than one car as one has screwed up and hit someone else. Although there are incidents of mid air collisions there are consaiderble more where a lone person dies probably due to the fact that most deaths occur under canopy. I beleive that i am less liklely to have an accident/inccident skydiving than i am driving but if i do have one jumping i am sure it is much more likely that i will suffer serious injurys or die. As the parachute is you "safety net" after that you have no real protection. In a car you have seatbelts, multiple air bags, crumple zones etc. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Erroll 49 #29 October 13, 2003 QuoteThe issue I think is that because skydiving is a life theatenning sport An angle that is often overlooked is 'the chance of something going wrong and the effect/result when it does'. If something goes wrong during a "standard or routine" skydive, the effect is likely catastrophic and the chance of survival reduces dramatically. The risk is substantially less in the event of something going wrong during a routine trip by motorcar. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
annna 0 #30 October 13, 2003 Ahhh !! You must be the same Tom Buchanan that so gallantly lent me your rig when i was at the Ranch in May with no riggers seal on my rig (and thus couldn;t jump it) ?? You saved my trip ! Hope i left you with not too bad a packjob ;-) Thank you for the extra stats - shall wow and confound friends and family with my new statistical armoury ,,,, ! kindest regards, anna Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
slotperfect 7 #31 October 13, 2003 1) Skydiving is inherently dangerous. The more one respects the danger, and takes steps to mitigate it, the safer it gets. The more individuals that make this effort, the safer the group/DZ/discipline/sport gets. If you are one of those skydivers who always respects the presence of said danger, and never sacrifices the steps taken to mitigate the risk, you can consider yourself as a source for safety in our sport, with that influence radiating out from you. Many of those around you will be affected in a positive and forwarding way, and you just don't realize how many people you might affect. Thus, there is great value for all of us in the safe practices of one individual. 2) I support TomBuch's statement that statistics should be suspect. They can be easily manipulated to the benefit or detriment of the person/group they are referring to. Example: Patricia graduated in the top 5% of her class in high school. In my graduating class of 19, Patricia (a real person) was our valedictorian, top of the class. In a graduating class of 500, she would be in the top 25 students. So, would Patty rather have others say she was at the top of her class, or in the top 5%? Also, if we live our lives always looking to achieve what is possible in our lives, we will always be taking ourselves to another level, forwarding our contribution to those around us. Conversely, if we never try because the "odds" (stats) are 1:1,000,000, we create unnecessary self-imposed limits for ourselves. 3) Complacency is what kills most people in this sport. Some people just plain ignore the danger, others are just out there to push limits as early in their career as they can. Unfortunately, before they meet their demise these folks have a huge influence on others as well - especially low-time jumpers. One should consider very carefully how their actions around the upstarts may affect the sport in the long run. 4) Whuffos who are considering skydiving must decide for themselves. I will never take a student into an airplane that has been coerced by a friend or family member. I want it to be their choice - the experience will have much more value for them that way. They will be able to see that they created the experience for themselves. Recently I had a very analytical tandem student ask me what would happen if the reserve parachute did not work. I commented how interesting it was how many people ask me that question, but would hop in their car to drive 70 on a busy interstate without a thought as to when the last time the brakes were serviced, or what the chances were that they would fail. That's one example of the driving analogy working for me. Great thread!Arrive Safely John Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AdD 1 #32 October 16, 2003 Does the comparison to flying in the c-172 account for the fact that you have to fly in an airplane and take the risk of it crashing before you get out before you even begin the jump? Skydiving is dangerous dammit, if people start to believe it's like driving a car that's really going to hurt my favorite pickup line.Life is ez On the dz Every jumper's dream 3 rigs and an airstream Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
skydivingfool 0 #33 October 16, 2003 I totally agree with John You can always make statistics work in your favor. Unlicensed people and people with their D-license combined accounted for greater than 80% of the fatalities last year. People with their C-License accounted for less than 5%. Therefore, get to your C-License and you can jump forever without having to worry. But as soon as you turn in your test for the D-License you are screwed. Jason Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scrumpot 1 #34 October 16, 2003 QuoteThen its not correct! Its an assumption based on another assumption. To me, that's pure speculation. DILUTED speculation, Rem! ...Even worse. coitus non circum - Moab Stone Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RippedCord 0 #35 October 17, 2003 QuoteQuoteCorrect! but only if you first you make an implicit assumption Then its not correct! Its an assumption based on another assumption. To me, that's pure speculation. Well, call it what you like. In the world of mathematics we'd call it a "conditional expectation." AMDG Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
