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timbarrett

Dangerous jump numbers?

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What level of jump numbers do you think poses the highest level of risk? The fatality stats don't really have enough data points (thankfully) it seems, especially as there are no numbers readily available for injuries rather than fatalities.

This post somewhat prompted by my own feeling that with around 100 jumps I am now at the stage where a)I know enough to get into trouble, b) not enough to get out of it/make a better decision and c) some growing awareness (as more experienced jumpers often point out) that a lot more things can happen than you can imagine...

Curious what others views/thoughts on this are? Stuck at work on a beautiful day and reduced to DZ.com for entertainment...
"Work hard, play hard and don't whinge"

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Statistics bear out the fact the higher the jump numbers, the higher the incidents. It's a little thing called complacency. I used to jump without a helmut, i'd forget my altimeter periodacally, i even jumped out once with my goggles hanging around my kneck, that hurt! I'm guilty as well. I had an S&TA bring to my attention about 4 years ago at SDSM that dumping at 2K AGL probably wasn't a good idea. But back then all i wanted was the "Ground Rush" I never really thought i would / could pound in. Then i lost one of my best friends, Shane Richertz, then Chris Salin about three months later. I modified my behaviour straight away.
-Richard-
"You're Holding The Rope And I'm Taking The Fall"

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They're all dangerous, brother.

Don't worry about which jump is statistically safe and which is dangerous... just concentrate on what you need to do to have a safe jump for you and those around you every time.
--- and give them wings so they may fly free forever

DiverDriver in Training

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Statistics bear out the fact the higher the jump numbers, the higher the incidents.


How do you get that? Are you suggesting that the accident rate for jumps 2200-2300 is higher than that for jumps 0-100? and that jumps 4700-4800 is higher yet again? I don't think so.

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On a per-jump basis, newer jumpers are at greater risk. From my experience, there's a danger area from recent grad to about 50-60 jumps that comes from simply not knowing what's going on, and making mistakes like getting out first and pulling at 5000 feet without telling anyone.

There's a second 'plateau' of risk that hits between 100 and about 600 jumps, where jumpers think they have it all figured out. This is historically where the stupidest canopy decisions get made.

But per the list you posted, >500 jump people are most likely to be injured, purely because they make more jumps than people with 50 jumps. That's one of the problems with statistics.

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What level of jump numbers do you think poses the highest level of risk? The fatality stats don't really have enough data points (thankfully) it seems, especially as there are no numbers readily available for injuries rather than fatalities.

This post somewhat prompted by my own feeling that with around 100 jumps I am now at the stage where a)I know enough to get into trouble, b) not enough to get out of it/make a better decision and c) some growing awareness (as more experienced jumpers often point out) that a lot more things can happen than you can imagine...

Curious what others views/thoughts on this are? Stuck at work on a beautiful day and reduced to DZ.com for entertainment...



This months Parachutist should shed some light on the answer... 61% of fatalities were D-license holders.
Gravity Waits for No One.

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Used to be, if you plotted the number of fatalities vs. the number of jumps the deceased had when they went in for a given year, you'd get a "spike" of fatalities around 40 (i.e. the fatal forties) and another around 800 jumps (give or take a few hundred).

AADs and high performance canopies has changed all that though. :S

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Statistics bear out the fact the higher the jump numbers, the higher the incidents.


How do you get that? Are you suggesting that the accident rate for jumps 2200-2300 is higher than that for jumps 0-100? and that jumps 4700-4800 is higher yet again? I don't think so.



Yes he is, and statistically that's true.
Gravity Waits for No One.

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I think 'complacency' is the word.

Whether you have 10 jumps,100,1000 or 10,000 jumps..
As soon as you drop your guard ,,you...
'IMMEDIATELY',, move into a high risk area..

You can NEVER afford to be complacent...
.EVER..!..

The words here are,,,..

.....NEVER...
...EVER....
...IMMEDIATE...

Skydiving accidents are like car accidents..

Once you're in 'em,you're in 'em..

There is no warning,,,,

Only prevention and vigilance can overcome!!!

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I think 'complacency' is the word.

Whether you have 10 jumps,100,1000 or 10,000 jumps..
As soon as you drop your guard ,,you...
'IMMEDIATELY',, move into a high risk area..

You can NEVER afford to be complacent...
.EVER..!..

The words here are,,,..

.....NEVER...
...EVER....
...IMMEDIATE...

Skydiving accidents are like car accidents..

Once you're in 'em,you're in 'em..

There is no warning,,,,

Only prevention and vigilance can overcome!!!


Definitely, that is the root of the problem. Apparently, and not surprisingly, jumpers above 500 jumps are more likely to become complacent than jumpers with fewer jumps. I'd like to see what percentage of jumps are made by each group (above 500 and below).
Gravity Waits for No One.

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Statistics bear out the fact the higher the jump numbers, the higher the incidents.


How do you get that? Are you suggesting that the accident rate for jumps 2200-2300 is higher than that for jumps 0-100? and that jumps 4700-4800 is higher yet again? I don't think so.



Yes he is, and statistically that's true.


Poppycock!
With a constantly increasing level of danger those with 10 000 and more would be dying at a phenomenal rate per jump made. Since these people tend to jump close to 1000 times a year their fatality rate over time would be even more pronounced. The statistics demonstrate just the opposite.

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Statistics bear out the fact the higher the jump numbers, the higher the incidents.


How do you get that? Are you suggesting that the accident rate for jumps 2200-2300 is higher than that for jumps 0-100? and that jumps 4700-4800 is higher yet again? I don't think so.



Yes he is, and statistically that's true.


Poppycock!
With a constantly increasing level of danger those with 10 000 and more would be dying at a phenomenal rate per jump made. Since these people tend to jump close to 1000 times a year their fatality rate over time would be even more pronounced. The statistics demonstrate just the opposite.



That's why I'm curious about how many jumps are made by the 500+ group. This month's Parachutist claims that the majority of deaths are in that group, but I agree, it makes more sense to look at it on a jump by jump basis. What's more pertinent is the risk on any one individual jump, not necessarily how many in each category are dying.
Gravity Waits for No One.

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Statistics bear out the fact the higher the jump numbers, the higher the incidents.


How do you get that? Are you suggesting that the accident rate for jumps 2200-2300 is higher than that for jumps 0-100? and that jumps 4700-4800 is higher yet again? I don't think so.



Yes he is, and statistically that's true.



What is the source of your statistics? I've never seen anything remotely suggestive of that.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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Dear Poppycock,,

very english!!!!

You obviously seem to think you are beyond an accident and therefore impervious to a mistake made by you or by others,,

What I'm suggesting is that if YOU drop your guard at ANY TIME in your skydiving career you IMMEDIATELY move into the risk area,,
This is a constant ,every day ,every jump

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Cheers Matey. I try I really do. (already lived quite long and have no intention of leaving or taking anyone witgh me just yet).

I might be flippant on the ground but take all of my flying seriously.

Blues,

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

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The april issue of parachutists. They have a graph with a pie chart in it, oage 26. I should have mentioned it when i made the remark...sorry.

Fatalities By License Qualification:

10% Unreported
14% Novice
5% B license
10% C license
61% D license

No pull / Low pull: 14%
Malfuntions: 14%
Reserve Problems: 14%
Collisions: 14%
Landings: 43%

Stats Based On The 2006 Calender Year.
-Richard-
"You're Holding The Rope And I'm Taking The Fall"

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That's a very interesting question and Diablopilot hit it on the head- getting cocky is dangerous.

From your standpoint 300-800 seems to be the danger zone. You get some experience, learn a few things, think you know a lot more than you really do and start pushing things a lot more. 'Young Skygod' status kickes in here. Throw in a few downsizes and that's a bad combination.

Strangely enought the same thing happens with pilots- the '300th' hour so to speak.

Want to get through it? Surround yourself with good people and listen to them. You'll know if you're heading into the danger zone if you're perceptive. Survival will depend on (a) do you recognize this and yank yourself back and (b) a good bit of luck.

Still a great question though and an interesting statistic.

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The april issue of parachutists. They have a graph with a pie chart in it, oage 26. I should have mentioned it when i made the remark...sorry.

Fatalities By License Qualification:

10% Unreported
14% Novice
5% B license
10% C license
61% D license

.



Unfortunately those numbers don't mean a lot unless we know how many active jumpers are in each category. And we can infer nothing about jump numbers.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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The april issue of parachutists. They have a graph with a pie chart in it, oage 26. I should have mentioned it when i made the remark...sorry.

Fatalities By License Qualification:

10% Unreported
14% Novice
5% B license
10% C license
61% D license

.



Unfortunately those numbers don't mean a lot unless we know how many active jumpers are in each category. And we can infer nothing about jump numbers.



Even if we knew how many active jumpers are in each category, the numbers wouldn't mean much. ;)

What is most meaningful is that each of us can think about the circumstances surrounding each incident and try to better understand how we can minimize the risks on every jump we make.

Depicting these statistics with pie charts and bar graphs is just silly because it encourages people to make unsubstantiated inferences.


Here's what I infer after reading all of last years incidents:

1. Do everything possible to ensure that you can and will LAND your canopy safely on every jump. Obviously, this is a very important part of every skydive, right? :P There's a lot to think about here whether you have 6 jumps or 6000.

2. AVOID CANOPY COLLISIONS - this shouldn't be a difficult thing to do regardless of jump numbers; if you think it is, then there is something wrong with the rules at your particular DZ.

Hmmm ... That takes care of more than half of the incidents the rest were low pulls, malfunctions, and reserve problems. Scary.

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