Dangerous jump numbers?

[woodpecker 0]

Very interesting thread, and something a few of us have discussed recently.

I would say the over 500 category, if anything because of cockiness and sheer jump numbers. I've seen more upper number jumpers "know it all" but go in or injure themselves (not all....just my experience) and as for the statistics---Yes they dont show the number of jumps, but if you jump more, your more at risk, so over 500 puts you at a larger risk than under 500.

Just my opinion, interesting thread none the less!

SONIC WOODY #146

There is a fine line between cockiness and confidence -- which side of the line are you on?

[pchapman 261]

A complicating factor is whether one wants to look at
'risk per jump' or 'risk per year'.

I'm making up the numbers but it is interesting to think of the issues:

The guy with 1000 jumps may believe that a newbie with only 100 jumps has a ten times higher chance of getting killed when he goes on a skydive. But if the newbie is only making it out to the DZ for 25 jumps a year, and the 1000 jump guy is now pounding out 250 jumps per year, they both end up having the same chance of getting killed in the sport per year...

[Mathematically the two situations aren't exactly equal, but for small probability events, 1/10th the risk, taken 10 times more, is about equally likely.]

Now that's not to say that maintaining equal risks per jumper per year is the right way to go. If one can only jump once per year, one isn't given carte blanche to make it a really dangerous jump.

[billvon 2,396]

>I've seen more upper number jumpers "know it all" but go in or injure
>themselves (not all....just my experience) . . .

That's true, but that's a bit of cause/effect reversal. It isn't that they are more dangerous because of the attitude they acquire after X jumps - it is that they are making so many jumps that their risk goes up. Someone making 800 jumps a year can be ten times safer on every single jump than someone making 50 jumps a year, and still be at greater risk of injury or death.

>so over 500 puts you at a larger risk than under 500.

I'd argue that's not true comparing each jump, but true over the course of a year.

[RandomLemming 0]

Confident, cocky, lazy dead. Can't remember the book I got that from.

Confident is good - a lack of confidence leads to second guessing yourself, over thinking instead of just doing what you were taught, and can make a mess.

Everything else leads down that slippery slope to dead :(

[bigdad510 1]

When I started, I was told on my very first 45-sec delay (static-line progression) that the day you go up in the plane and don't have any fear, you need to quit jumping, no matter what your jump numbers, because you'll end up killing yourself or someone else.

I believe that there is always fear in every skydiver, it's just more specifically "managed fear". The "managing" being what makes each skydiver unique.

I have jumped with both a low number jumper (less then 50) and a high number jumper (over 1000) who say they have no fear in jumping. Both of them are reckless, and at times, don't care much about the other people in the sky. I don't jump with them anymore.

So for numbers, don't think you can really peg an issue. I believe the stats for over 500 are because of the more things d-license skydivers are allowed to do, their risk increases.

Brad

[sinnok 0]

well said,

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