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Hooknswoop

AAD's & Personal Acceptable Risk Thresholds

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An interesting point that has come from this is the belief that some jumpers jump beyond thier abilities because they have AADs. That AADs breed complacency in some.

I think that this is the point worthy of debate. In other words do people allow AADs to change thier personal risk threshold.

I would have to be in the "No" side of the ledger. I have also heard a jumper claim that he should be allowed to do a jump beyond his skill and then point out the AAD on his back as justification.

I don't believe that he is choosing to go on the jump because of his AAD but rather using his AAD to deflect critcism of his choice to jump beyond his abilities.

As an instructor I've noticed the same jumper wanting to jump a smaller canopy claiming "I'll be careful". It's just a tactic to deflect criticism of a poor choice.

I'm sure if you listen to those jumpers long enough you'll hear more examples e.g. Mr Bills "I'll wear a protect". Inexperienced crew;"we both have hook knives" Faster canopies "The winds are high" Zoo load 4 way "we'll break high".

It's a chicken and egg arguement. Does he raise his risk threashold because of the AAD or use the AAD to justify his high risk threshold.

The real thing that we instructors have to be careful of is getting worn down by those jumpers and thinking "yeah, well maybe it's OK, he has a Cypres."


I would rather be a superb meteor, every atom of me in magnificent glow, than a sleepy and permanent planet.

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I've certainly been reading your posts in this thread. Perhaps I wasn't clear in my earlier post.

What I meant to say is that I have no desire to find out what is more likely to fail: my reserve or my AAD. If all goes well, I'll never use either.

Experience shows that nothing ever goes as planned, however. In the event I need either of these devices and I don't have it, I'm dead. Thanks to modern technology and years of innovation on experience by jumpers who were experienced long before I was born, we now have reserves and AADs. My reserve was built two years ago by one of the most reputable names in the business. It was packed last weekend by a skilled and knowledgeable rigger team. My AAD is a Cypres, just had its two year service done a few months ago. I've bought the best equipment on the market because my life is the extra cost.

I hope I never see my reserve inflated. I hope I never see my cypress cutter expended. I'll take every step within my power to ensure that I never have to use either of these devices. They are backups, to be used only in the event of an emergency. They should never be relied on.

Being told that I don't belong on a jump because my experience level is too low (which has happened) and me responding with "But I have a cypres" (which I would never say) is no different than me trash packing my main and saying "If it mals, I always have my reserve", and that is no different than someone who downsizes too quickly, and is on a canopy they shouldn't be on, but says "I'll just fly slow and be extra careful". Those are all stupid decisions to make, as evidenced by the fatal impacts of skydivers who have said those exact things. When Murphy comes to visit, he makes his presence known. Don't open the door for him.

Mike

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"But I have a cypres" (which I would never say) is no different than me trash packing my main and saying "If it mals, I always have my reserve"



I totally agree ... and this may be fodder for another thread but why is it the I have a reserve comment ... which has been said in my presence by novices up to 1000+ jump sky gods .. and even given as advice to me when I chose to pick up a failed attempt and start over rather then shove it in the Dbag... acceptable? I 'm not saying one attitude is ok so why is the other I'm saying they are both CRAP and unless said TOTALLY as a joke neither should never be uttered ... and yet the reserve line is common .. I have even seen the same jumper make the comment and then come in with an open reserve

If this same jumper had said "thats why I have a cypres" and come in after a cypres fire he waited for he would(should) be grounded

Good Judgment comes from experience...a lot of experience comes from bad
judgment.

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I don't believe that he is choosing to go on the jump because of his AAD but rather using his AAD to deflect critcism of his choice to jump beyond his abilities.



I wondered that - is the line "it's ok, I have a Cypres" really their deciding point, or just a rationalization for a choice they made, or felt peer pressured into doing? You go to a friendly DZ as a solo jumper, you get someone offering to join you, half way up in the place it's turned into a 3 way hybrid with 3 other freefliers in the sky with you. At the time that seemed great to me, but the frequent references here to the potential for hybrids to go bad had caught my eye.

Before the other thread inexplicably got locked, I asked if the overly skilled dive plan was commonly the factor leading to the AAD fire - it didn't seem so.

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Would you run a red light?

Woiuld you run a red light if the car had airbags?



Knowing that frontal air bag have no value in a broadside collision, and that side air bags (not in my car) are imperfect, I'd pass. That's the equilivent of relying on the RSL to pull for me.

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This is becoming an angels on the head of a pin discussion.

Changes in equipment and training in the interests of improving safety can only be evaluated based on the actual outcomes.

We cannot evaluate AADs, reserves, the ISP, or anything else based on what we think is going on inside the head of someone else.

The only consideration of any value is "did it reduce the rate of injuries and fatalities?".
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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For some time I agreed with many of the comments regarding people who are unwilling to jump without a Cypres on the grounds that it was too dangerous. I have jumped without a Cypres and would again if my DZ hadn't made a Cypres mandatory for all jumps (grrr).

My initial thoughts to this thread were that you should never, under any circumstances go on a jump that you would not be willing to go on without an AAD. Then, thinking about it a bit more, I thought of a couple of exceptions.

Stunts (by professionals). For instance attempting to break the freefall record. History has shown that oxygen systems have failed, not just back in the 60's but more recently. When Adrian Nicholas was doing his long freefall with a wingsuit he experienced oxygen supply problems (I know, the AAD may not reach activation speeds with a wingsuit). However if this oxygen problem had not been resolved unconsciousness was a risk. Taking into account this higher risk of unconsciousness would you not then want an AAD?

Option 2: Early freefall students. Doesn't matter if it's RAPS or AFF, those first few freefall jumps without the instructor. These people have an inherently higher risk of malfunctions and no-pulls (I've seen one or two over the years). Would you let them jump (now, not 15 years ago) without an AAD? If the answer is "no" then you have just allowed someone to do a higher risk jump because they have an AAD.

For the majority of people however, I agree that you shouldn't take on a more risky jump purely because you have an AAD.

Just my thoughts to stir the pot!

Blue skies

Paul

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Your entire hypothesis relies on an assumption that having an AAD does not change the risk of death or injury in a skydive.

YOUR ASSUMPTION IS INCORRECT.

Just because you and Ron choose to evaluate your risk tolerance in one way does not entitle you to tell anyone else how to evaluate their risk tolerance.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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Your entire hypothesis relies on an assumption that having an AAD does not change the risk of death or injury in a skydive.



No, it rests on the assumption that having an AAD does not reduce the odds of a freefall incident such as a collision.

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Just because you and Ron choose to evaluate your risk tolerance in one way does not entitle you to tell anyone else how to evaluate their risk tolerance.



I am putting my opinion out there for people to evaluate and discuss. If people disagree, that is fine. If we have made people think about risk asessment, their own limit of risk and how much risk they expose themselves to, then I have accomplished something.

BTW- You have said that somwone ALWAYS misunderstands and that I have to make sure no one misunderstands, but haven't answered how I am supposed to do something you say is impossible. Which is is since you can't have it both ways?

If I feel running a red light carried too much risk of a collision for me, how does airbags change that?

Derek

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Your entire hypothesis relies on an assumption that having an AAD does not change the risk of death or injury in a skydive.



No, it rests on the assumption that having an AAD does not reduce the odds of a freefall incident such as a collision.

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Just because you and Ron choose to evaluate your risk tolerance in one way does not entitle you to tell anyone else how to evaluate their risk tolerance.



I am putting my opinion out there for people to evaluate and discuss. If people disagree, that is fine. If we have made people think about risk asessment, their own limit of risk and how much risk they expose themselves to, then I have accomplished something.

BTW- You have said that somwone ALWAYS misunderstands and that I have to make sure no one misunderstands, but haven't answered how I am supposed to do something you say is impossible. Which is is since you can't have it both ways?

If I feel running a red light carried too much risk of a collision for me, how does airbags change that?

Derek



Depends if your objective is to avoid a collision or to avoid dying.

You CANNOT evaluate anything without first defining your objective.

Don't assume your objectives and goals are exactly the same as everyone else's.
...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

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This is not a direct reply to you, Dr. Kallend, but to everyone. I think some people are just playing devil's advocate in this situation, but I'll try to be as clear as possible so that my words are not misunderstood.

Device dependency is a bad thing. There are many forms of it. Like I stated above, people relying on their cypres, or their reserve. But also, people relying on their audible to tell them when to pull. Or even relying on their altimeter to tell them when to pull and when to set up their approach.

Device dependency will eventually get you killed (collective you, not YOU personally). I would gladly jump without a cypres. And a reserve. And my altimeter. And my helmet. I don't NEED any of those things to survive a skydive. They just increase my chances of landing safely if not everything goes perfectly, which will inevitably happen.

These devices have made the sport safer and certainly prevented fatalities. Their reliability is very high, and they almost always function as they were designed. There will be a time when something goes wrong and they do not function as intended, however. Do you want that to be the same time you put your life in the hands of that device?

We should all make every jump as though we have no backup devices. Complacency kills. We should not allow ourselves to get complacent. Relying on devices that may fail breeds complacency. The chances of the jumper and the device failing on the same jump are remote, but not nonexistent. Setting ourselves up for failure only increases the risk of failing at the same time the device does. When that happens, it becomes another incident thread, and we've had far too many of them already.

Mike

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Depends if your objective is to avoid a collision or to avoid dying.



My first priority is to avoid the collision in the first place. Failing that, avoiding dying. I think putting as many layers between you and bad things is the way to go.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but it sounds like you are advocating jumpers going ahead and making a jump they think is too risky because they have a Cypres.

For example;

Let's say a jumper thinks a 50-way is too risky. They do a risk asessment and because of the number of jumpers, the abilities of those jumpers, their abilities, or whatever, they think a 50-way is too risky for them to do. But they just put a Cypres in their rig.

I think they still shouldn't do the 50-way.

Do you think that because they now have a Cypres, they should go do the 50-way?

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You CANNOT evaluate anything without first defining your objective.



Avoiding incidents. Safety.

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Don't assume your objectives and goals are exactly the same as everyone else's.



I would think it is a fairly safe assumption that almost everyone has the same goal of avoiding incidents and being safe.

Derek

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>The only consideration of any value is "did it reduce the rate of
>injuries and fatalities?".

The action taken by the FAA after 9/11/01 reduced the number of injuries and fatalities to zero for the duration of their action. By your standard, that's all that's important, and that's the solution we should implement. I would disagree.

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I wouldn't go on a 400 way(where everybody has proven their ablility to be on the jump) without a cypres.....does that make me device dependent?



It is not that simple. Again, as I have said several times before, I think it is OK you won't exit an airplane without a Cypres. I think you should jump a Cypres.

The critical piece of information needed to decide if you are device dependant do you think a 400 way has a higher level of risk than your personnal limit?

If a 400-way does not (in your opinion) carry more risk than (in your opinion) you are willing to accept, then no, you are not device dependant. If a 400-way (in your opinion) has more risk (in your opinion) than you are willing to accept and use an AAD to 'make up' the difference, then yes, I think you are device dependant.

You have to figure it out for yourself, because it is based completely on your determination of the risks involved.

Derek

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If a 400-way does not (in your opinion) carry more risk than (in your opinion) you are willing to accept, then no, you are not device dependant. If a 400-way (in your opinion) has more risk (in your opinion) than you are willing to accept and use an AAD to 'make up' the difference, then yes, I think you are device dependant.



I think a 400 carries much more risk than a 20 way. IMO I think I am capable and qualified to be on such a jump. IMO I think there is more risk to the point I wouldn't do it without a cypres.(look at all the past fatalities on record jumps) I can look out for myself, but I'm worried about the other 100 people in my quadrant. I can't keep an eye on all of them. I'm not using the cypres to rationalize...I'm using it as a backup to that guy I can't see coming from behind/above. So I guess I'm device dependent and maybe I should take a good hard look at whether I should be jumping or not.

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I can look out for myself, but I'm worried about the other 100 people in my quadrant. I can't keep an eye on all of them. I'm not using the cypres to rationalize...I'm using it as a backup to that guy I can't see coming from behind/above. So I guess I'm device dependent and maybe I should take a good hard look at whether I should be jumping or not.



Not so fast.

1) I think having a Cypres, especially for a 400-way is smart.

2) Do you think the odds of "that guy I can't see coming from behind/above." on the 400-way are too high for you?

The risk is there and only you can decide if a) what level of risk you are willing to accept, and b) if the risk of a 400-way in this case, is above or below that acceptable level of risk.

I also don't think people that use a Cypres to exceed their own limit of risk to do a 400-way should quit jumping, they just shouldn't exceed their own set limit to risk.

For me, I think the risks of a 400-way are big, but my level of acceptable risk is even larger. I am willing to accept the risks of a 400-way. The fact that I would wear a Cypres for a 400-way if it was at all possible does not change that my personal opinion of my own max risk is above the risk of a 400-way. I think I would be not being as safe as I could be doing a 400-way w/o a Cypres.

Edit: I am dividing the risks into 2 catagories. the risk of a collision or other problem. That risk is not at all affected by an AAD. The second is bouncing from that problem. I think everyone should have a Cypres just in case, but I don't think people should use it to lower the chances of a collision in their minds. I don't think they should think that "this jump is too risky for me, but is something does happen, I have a Cypres."

If a cypres should be used to allow people to make a jump they consider too risky, where does it end? Should a jumper with 20 jumps go do a 400-way since they have a Cypres? the Cypres makes it unlikely they will die if they screw up and hit someone knocking themselves out, right? If that is all that matters, then why not let anyone with a Cypres go do any jump they want? Why not 100 jumpers with 50 jumps and an AAD going and doing 100-ways? If all that matters is the numbers, then it shouldn't matter if 100 jumpers with 50 jumpes a piece go do a 100-way.

Derek

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Comparing a reserve to an AAD is stupid. The reserve is there in case your main malfunctions. The AAD is there in case YOU malfunction.



Carefully packed low aspect ratio seven cell squares don't malfunction often enough to require a reserve.

Reserves make jumping more tolerant of your packing errors just like an AAD allows you to survive your judgement errors.

They also allow you to jump more exciting but less reliable mains without increasing the overall risk too much.

Given a choice I'd usually take a reserve and open higher because I'd rather take 7 minutes than 60 packing and jump a 105 square foot elliptical over a 240 square foot seven cell square.

I've also made skydives outside the US without a reserve because I didn't think humping another rig arround was worthwhile. Given a choice on those jumps I'd pick a rig without a reserve over one that had a tongue holding the closing loop or a spring loaded pilot chute.

When given a choice opening lower is more exciting than opening higher, although when planning a skydive with an intentional opening below 1000' I don't count on a reserve to save me from a bad pack job or poor equipment choice.

At most a few skydivers don't do anything they wouldn't without reserve. All the rest are therefore device dependant. A few do things with a CYPRES they wouldn't do without. The two differ in how the risks are perceived, how acceptable they are, and how common they are. Those differences are entirely subjective.

Putting other people at risk is a different thing. Using an AAD as an excuse to go on a sit jump where you might cork and injure other people and is one thing. Going on a bigway you can handle because your AAD will protect you if some one else screws up is another.

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No, reading all these post really got me thinking. It bothers me now that for the past 9 years I wouldn't do AFF, camera work, tandems, freeflying, and large formations without a cypres. I always thought that I was capable and within my acceptable risks. Now I don't think so. I'm starting to realize that I AM device dependent and that's a terrible thing in this sport. I guess the positive side to this is that I have about $14,000 worth of gear I can sell and use while I find another job. Thanks for opening my eyes!!!


ps:NO decision in skydiving should be made JUST BECAUSE you have a cypres on your back. I think this sum's up about 2 pages worth.

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For me, I think the risks of a 400-way are big, but my level of acceptable risk is even larger. I am willing to accept the risks of a 400-way. The fact that I would wear a Cypres for a 400-way if it was at all possible does not change that my personal opinion of my own max risk is above the risk of a 400-way. I think I would be not being as safe as I could be doing a 400-way w/o a Cypres.



Somehow you're better off on a 400 way because you'd do it without a cypres even though you think you're better off having a cypres? Come on. I get your point when it comes to a jumper going beyond their skill level. But when skill is out of the picture, you lose me.

Risk acceptance is a personal decision. Just like kallend has said, each (experienced) jumper gets to choose whether he's trying to avoid the collision (by not going on the jump) or to survive the collision if it happens (by using a cypres). I TOTALLY agree that avoiding the collision is the BETTER option. But that's EACH jumpers decision to make. We'd all be a whole lot safer if we gave up skydiving. Sitting out EVERY JUMP is the best option for staying safe. But some people may choose to accept the higher risk of jumping in groups. They accept the risk of a collision. They don't accept that it HAS to mean they die. Experienced jumpers know they CAN die with or without a cypres. The cypres simply reduces that probability.

Dave

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dont go :( I have not gotten to jump with you... and pick your brain for all your worth ... wait till I get that chance ... then you can sell your gear and quit if you want ..Stop being so selfish .. THINK OF ME!!!:D:D:D

Good Judgment comes from experience...a lot of experience comes from bad
judgment.

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