Polls

[JerryBaumchen 1,264]

Hi folks,

As I go on-line looking for the news, I find that I am inundated with polls.  Some say Trump is ahead.  Wait 20 minutes & you will find one that says Harris is way out front.  Tomorrow, same-o, same-o.  

I've given up on them.

You???????

Jerry Baumchen

[johnhking1 89]

There must be money to be made taking polls but how accurate are they.  2016 showed Hillary ahead and we know how that turned out

[normiss 723]

50 minutes ago, johnhking1 said:

There must be money to be made taking polls but how accurate are they.  2016 showed Hillary ahead and we know how that turned out

She was though ....

[JerryBaumchen 1,264]

4 minutes ago, normiss said:

She was though ....

Hi Mark,

1.  She was ahead & won the popular vote.

2.  Trump won the Electoral College vote.

IMO that is why polls today are not accurate.  There is a lot to exactly how the questions are being asked.

Jerry Baumchen

 

[gowlerk 2,098]

You can't believe in polls as good predictors any more. They only tell you what the people who chose to participate chose to tell the pollster. The real thing to figure out is who will actually vote. 

[wmw999 2,313]

I was getting one text a day; it's up to three or four now. There are few better ways to avoid getting money from me than annoying me.

Wendy P.

[JerryBaumchen 1,264]

5 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

I was getting one text a day; it's up to three or four now. There are few better ways to avoid getting money from me than annoying me.

Wendy P.

Hi Wendy,

I totally agree.

They called me last nite about 8 PM my time.  I was not real nice to the caller.

Jerry Baumchen

[ryoder 1,549]

"Polls give you an accurate measure of that portion of the demographic who still picks up the phone for unknown callers."

-- Justin "Beau" King

[tkhayes 259]

1 hour ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

As I go on-line looking for the news, I find that I am inundated with polls.  Some say Trump is ahead.  Wait 20 minutes & you will find one that says Harris is way out front.  Tomorrow, same-o, same-o.  

I've given up on them.

You???????

Jerry Baumchen

we only have two parties so the polls are always close to 50/50 and so are the elections.

[winsor 220]

4 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

As I go on-line looking for the news, I find that I am inundated with polls.  Some say Trump is ahead.  Wait 20 minutes & you will find one that says Harris is way out front.  Tomorrow, same-o, same-o.  

I've given up on them.

You???????

Jerry Baumchen

Polls work.

[billvon 2,732]

4 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

IMO that is why polls today are not accurate.  There is a lot to exactly how the questions are being asked.

Jerry Baumchen

 

Try the 538 predictor.  It runs simulations on various state outcomes.

[JerryBaumchen 1,264]

4 hours ago, winsor said:

Polls work.

Hi winsor,

My All-Time favorite political photo.

Jerry Baumchen

[Stumpy 283]

9 hours ago, billvon said:

Try the 538 predictor.  It runs simulations on various state outcomes.

Hmmm Nate Silver has been off his game for a couple of cycles now. CBouzy who has been pretty much bang on last few times is predicting Kamala will win Florida.

[winsor 220]

6 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi winsor,

My All-Time favorite political photo.

Jerry Baumchen

I keep getting pressed for detailed prognostications regarding the election of one dreadful candidate or another, and Truman is a prime example of the Law of Unintended Consequences.

FDR, for all his flaws, had promised our allies in Indochina that the US would back free and fair elections after the War.

Truman, as a rabid anti-communist, got wind of the connection between the Viet Minh and the USSR and left the Japanese as Administrators until the French could return, with collaborators running the show before and after.

The French used the Foreign Legion, whose numbers were heavy with blonde haired blue eyed types with German accents who were adept at warfare and REALLY had to drop off the scope when they lost their last job.

Thus Truman, who was a pretty good guy by all accounts, turned his back on allies who had fought with valor against a common foe, and subjected them to the attention of SS alumni (who they trounced handily at Dien Bien Phu).

Thus was the stage set for the comedy of errors that resulted in the deaths of 58,000 Americans, an order of magnitude more Vietnamese, and the slow-motion implosion of our currency.

As an aside, Social Security, which FDR assured us is an investment, not an entitlement, had a large fund gaining interest.   LBJ, needing an infusion of cash to bring Truth, Justice and the American Way to Southeast Asia, "borrowed" it and Social Security became a de facto entitlement.  LBJ also took us from silver exchange currency, and Nixon "temporarily" detached our currency from gold.  It is only the trade of oil in dollars that has kept us in business as the reserve currency, but that's wearing thin.  People who wish to move on from petroleum should be careful what they ask for.

Both current candidates have the historical awareness of a goldfish (why not?  They're Americans - it comes with the territory!) so trying to guess which one will fuck up exactly what is a fool's errand.

At least the Felon is driven by greed and may not kill the goose that laid the golden egg.  His opponent is offering goose dinner for everyone forever.

Edited September 11 by winsor

[tkhayes 259]

10 minutes ago, winsor said:

People who wish to move on from petroleum should be careful what they ask for.

 

People who say we cannot move on from petroleum should stand out of the way from those that are already doing it.

[olofscience 460]

23 minutes ago, winsor said:

It is only the trade of oil in dollars that has kept us in business as the reserve currency, but that's wearing thin.  People who wish to move on from petroleum should be careful what they ask for.

Yeah...Americans have nothing to offer the world except oil, and that's the only reason the dollar has value. /s

 

24 minutes ago, winsor said:

LBJ also took us from silver exchange currency, and Nixon "temporarily" detached our currency from gold. 

Again here's an oldie thinking that tying currency to a silver or gold standard was a good thing, showing zero understanding of economics.

 

So Winsor saying that Kamala has zero understanding of economics actually provides zero information, because he knows nothing about economics himself.

[winsor 220]

30 minutes ago, tkhayes said:

People who say we cannot move on from petroleum should stand out of the way from those that are already doing it.

People moving on do not have their currency value upheld by petroleum prices.  Look up "petrodollar" and get back to me.

[tkhayes 259]

14 minutes ago, winsor said:

People moving on do not have their currency value upheld by petroleum prices.  Look up "petrodollar" and get back to me.

I did look it up.  what is your vague response going to be to explain it?

[gowlerk 2,098]

1 hour ago, winsor said:

I keep getting pressed for detailed prognostications regarding the election of one dreadful candidate or another, and Truman is a prime example of the Law of Unintended Consequences.

FDR, for all his flaws, had promised our allies in Indochina that the US would back free and fair elections after the War.

Truman, as a rabid anti-communist, got wind of the connection between the Viet Minh and the USSR and left the Japanese as Administrators until the French could return, with collaborators running the show before and after.

The French used the Foreign Legion, whose numbers were heavy with blonde haired blue eyed types with German accents who were adept at warfare and REALLY had to drop off the scope when they lost their last job.

Thus Truman, who was a pretty good guy by all accounts, turned his back on allies who had fought with valor against a common foe, and subjected them to the attention of SS alumni (who they trounced handily at Dien Bien Phu).

Thus was the stage set for the comedy of errors that resulted in the deaths of 58,000 Americans, an order of magnitude more Vietnamese, and the slow-motion implosion of our currency.

As an aside, Social Security, which FDR assured us is an investment, not an entitlement, had a large fund gaining interest.   LBJ, needing an infusion of cash to bring Truth, Justice and the American Way to Southeast Asia, "borrowed" it and Social Security became a de facto entitlement.  LBJ also took us from silver exchange currency, and Nixon "temporarily" detached our currency from gold.  It is only the trade of oil in dollars that has kept us in business as the reserve currency, but that's wearing thin.  People who wish to move on from petroleum should be careful what they ask for.

Both current candidates have the historical awareness of a goldfish (why not?  They're Americans - it comes with the territory!) so trying to guess which one will fuck up exactly what is a fool's errand.

At least the Felon is driven by greed and may not kill the goose that laid the golden egg.  His opponent is offering goose dinner for everyone forever.

In between Truman and LBJ was a decade of Ike and JFK. What is your take on their contributions?

[jakee 1,343]

2 hours ago, winsor said:

Thus was the stage set for the comedy of errors that resulted in the deaths of 58,000 Americans, an order of magnitude more Vietnamese, and the slow-motion implosion of our currency.

So slow motion that here we are 60 years later and money is still worth money. But sure, the sky’s gonna fall on our heads tomorrow… always tomorrow.

2 hours ago, winsor said:

At least the Felon is driven by greed and may not kill the goose that laid the golden egg.  His opponent is offering goose dinner for everyone forever.

Every time you try make it sound like you’re explaining your position you just make it clear that you simply like Trump more than Kamala and that’s all that matters. FFS just get it over with and say you’ll never vote for an affirmative action darkie.

[billvon 2,732]

3 hours ago, winsor said:

At least the Felon is driven by greed and may not kill the goose that laid the golden egg.  His opponent is offering goose dinner for everyone forever.

The felon has demonstrated that he is not intelligent enough to grasp such a concept.  Evil AND stupid is never a winning combination.  Even if the evil he is doing is your kind of evil.

[SkyDekker 1,289]

4 hours ago, winsor said:

I keep getting pressed for detailed prognostications regarding the election of one dreadful candidate or another, and Truman is a prime example of the Law of Unintended Consequences.

FDR, for all his flaws, had promised our allies in Indochina that the US would back free and fair elections after the War.

Truman, as a rabid anti-communist, got wind of the connection between the Viet Minh and the USSR and left the Japanese as Administrators until the French could return, with collaborators running the show before and after.

The French used the Foreign Legion, whose numbers were heavy with blonde haired blue eyed types with German accents who were adept at warfare and REALLY had to drop off the scope when they lost their last job.

Thus Truman, who was a pretty good guy by all accounts, turned his back on allies who had fought with valor against a common foe, and subjected them to the attention of SS alumni (who they trounced handily at Dien Bien Phu).

Thus was the stage set for the comedy of errors that resulted in the deaths of 58,000 Americans, an order of magnitude more Vietnamese, and the slow-motion implosion of our currency.

As an aside, Social Security, which FDR assured us is an investment, not an entitlement, had a large fund gaining interest.   LBJ, needing an infusion of cash to bring Truth, Justice and the American Way to Southeast Asia, "borrowed" it and Social Security became a de facto entitlement.  LBJ also took us from silver exchange currency, and Nixon "temporarily" detached our currency from gold.  It is only the trade of oil in dollars that has kept us in business as the reserve currency, but that's wearing thin.  People who wish to move on from petroleum should be careful what they ask for.

Both current candidates have the historical awareness of a goldfish (why not?  They're Americans - it comes with the territory!) so trying to guess which one will fuck up exactly what is a fool's errand.

At least the Felon is driven by greed and may not kill the goose that laid the golden egg.  His opponent is offering goose dinner for everyone forever.

Good historical outline, agreed on most points. The fallacy however is believing the outcome would have been better had Truman lost.

[olofscience 460]

43 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Good historical outline, agreed on most points. The fallacy however is believing the outcome would have been better had Truman lost.

You think currencies should be backed by precious metals or combustible liquids?

Edited September 11 by olofscience

[SkyDekker 1,289]

2 hours ago, olofscience said:

You think currencies should be backed by precious metals or combustible liquids?

No.

[winsor 220]

2 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

Good historical outline, agreed on most points. The fallacy however is believing the outcome would have been better had Truman lost.

Who made that claim?  As I recall, nobody bats a thousand.  It does not detract the least from someone's accomplishments to make note of their failures.

Truman had a hell of a lot dropped in his lap when he became president, partially because he wasn't in the loop on much of any of FDR's planning.  The fact that he did as well as he did is impressive.

I do not claim to have extensive knowledge of the history of Southeast Asia, but I agree with the assessment of Generals James Gavin and S. L. A. Marshall, two particularly brilliant officers, taking whose advice would have avoided endless heartache and bloodshed.  That failure was on Kennedy.

A study of History reveals that hindsight is anything but 20/20.  Much of what constitutes "common knowledge" is entirely wrong.

If nothing else, Truman, Carter, Ford and likely Eisenhower (the rumors of dalliance with Kay Somersby turn out to be unfounded) appear to have been faithful husbands, and I value highly someone whose vows are not negotiable.