Ukraine still matters

[JoeWeber 2,567]

We're all reasonably thinking about the 2024 vote. Please also take some time to follow what is actually happening on the ground in Ukraine. It matters.

Edited August 9 by JoeWeber

[gowlerk 2,100]

6 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

We're all reasonably thinking about the 2024 vote. Please also take some time to follow what is actually happening on the ground in Ukraine. It matters.

More than ever. It still has the potential to explode into a world shaping event.

[Phil1111 1,080]

As does the middle east war. In Ukraine the loss of Russian armor has led to the increased use of pure infantry assaults by Russian units. As a result Russian casualties have gone from about 24,000 per month in May. To what is now over 35,000 a month. It seems as if Russia has lots of meat and artillery but not much else.

[riggerrob 601]

The current fighting in Gaza is unlikely to escalate because few people care what happens to Palestinians. None of their Araba neighbors want to accept refugees from Gaza. They tried that a half-century ago and it ended miserably. In the lead up to various Arab-Israeli wars, some Palestinians voluntarily left Palestine based upon promises of free land after the Jews were crushed.

Come 1970, Palestinians plotted to kill off the Jordanian Royal family, so they were deported. Some of those Palestinian rabble-rousers went to Lebanon. Lebanon has been in an on-again-off-again civil war ever since. Egypt tried governing the Gaza Strip, but soon concluded that was impossible. Israel briefly tried governing the Gaza Strip but soon gave it up as a lost cause. Since the Arab Spring, the Sinai Peninsula has been over-run by smugglers. Some of those smugglers dug tunnels under the Egyptian/Gaza border. Hamas charges a 20 percent tax on all imports to the Gaza Strip. Gaza has hardly any farmland left, no factories and little value-added economy. Gazans mostly depend upon hand-outs from charitable organizations.

None of their Arab neighbors want to accept refugees from Gaza.

Gaza's only product seems to be angry young men because their birth rate remains well above the rest of the world. Gaza birth-rates rival those of Orthodox Jews and Nigerians ... also troublesome populations.

Hezbollah are just meat-puppets ... er  ... cannon-fodder doing the bidding of Iran to destabilize the Middle East.

[JoeWeber 2,567]

17 minutes ago, riggerrob said:

The current fighting in Gaza is unlikely to escalate because few people care what happens to Palestinians. None of their Araba neighbors want to accept refugees from Gaza. They tried that a half-century ago and it ended miserably. In the lead up to various Arab-Israeli wars, some Palestinians voluntarily left Palestine based upon promises of free land after the Jews were crushed.

Come 1970, Palestinians plotted to kill off the Jordanian Royal family, so they were deported. Some of those Palestinian rabble-rousers went to Lebanon. Lebanon has been in an on-again-off-again civil war ever since. Egypt tried governing the Gaza Strip, but soon concluded that was impossible. Israel briefly tried governing the Gaza Strip but soon gave it up as a lost cause. Since the Arab Spring, the Sinai Peninsula has been over-run by smugglers. Some of those smugglers dug tunnels under the Egyptian/Gaza border. Hamas charges a 20 percent tax on all imports to the Gaza Strip. Gaza has hardly any farmland left, no factories and little value-added economy. Gazans mostly depend upon hand-outs from charitable organizations.

None of their Arab neighbors want to accept refugees from Gaza.

Gaza's only product seems to be angry young men because their birth rate remains well above the rest of the world. Gaza birth-rates rival those of Orthodox Jews and Nigerians ... also troublesome populations.

Hezbollah are just meat-puppets ... er  ... cannon-fodder doing the bidding of Iran to destabilize the Middle East.

Thanks Rob, but Gaza isn't a part of Ukraine.

[JoeWeber 2,567]

That no one is engaging here shows how uninformed and lost in our own bubble we are. Huge things are happening in Ukraine that matter to every American. Please get educated and aware.

[Phil1111 1,080]

Russia has been making very slow but steady advances into Ukraine at enormous cost. Ukraine has been slowly degrading Russian SAM systems in the Crimea and around the Kerch bridge. IMO Russia is slowly winning because the morale of Ukraine has been effected by the stalemate.

Perhaps a Harris win will reinvigorate NATO actions because a Putin victory is dangerous.

[gowlerk 2,100]

I feel guilty, but it’s kind of fun cheering while watching Ukraine learning that the best defence is a good offence.

[JoeWeber 2,567]

18 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

I feel guilty, but it’s kind of fun cheering while watching Ukraine learning that the best defence is a good offence.

Actually, Ukraine is on the offensive and is taking Russian territory in Kursk. Whether the gains are durable is unknown, obviously. 

[ryoder 1,553]

6 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Actually, Ukraine is on the offensive and is taking Russian territory in Kursk. Whether the gains are durable is unknown, obviously. 

Taking (and holding) Russian territory would put them in the position of actually being able to negotiate a settlement; They could offer to pull out of Kursk if Putin gets the hell out of Ukraine. Up until now, they had nothing to offer.

[JoeWeber 2,567]

6 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Taking (and holding) Russian territory would put them in the position of actually being able to negotiate a settlement; They could offer to pull out of Kursk if Putin gets the hell out of Ukraine. Up until now, they had nothing to offer.

In the big scheme of things it's not much territory and holding it with six brigades, without reinforcements, won't be easy. Russia was caught napping with just border guards while Ukraine put together the attack force with their best troops and fighting vehicles. But they can't live off the land and march to the sea while Russia reacts, as it must. Hopefully Ukraine has a plan that doesn't include being encircled.

[SkyDekker 1,294]

19 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

In the big scheme of things it's not much territory and holding it with six brigades, without reinforcements, won't be easy. Russia was caught napping with just border guards while Ukraine put together the attack force with their best troops and fighting vehicles. But they can't live off the land and march to the sea while Russia reacts, as it must. Hopefully Ukraine has a plan that doesn't include being encircled.

There are reports that part of the Russian troops that have been taken captive are Akhmat-Kadirovites which would be a significant step up from "just border guards."

[JoeWeber 2,567]

34 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

There are reports that part of the Russian troops that have been taken captive are Akhmat-Kadirovites which would be a significant step up from "just border guards."

Yes, but reports also indicate they were in the rear and surrendered willingly, not first line border troops. But who knows?

[olofscience 464]

54 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Yes, but reports also indicate they were in the rear and surrendered willingly, not first line border troops. But who knows?

Putin was forced to promise that conscripts won't be sent to combat in Ukraine in 2022, otherwise he risked a societal backlash from the richer/more influential Moscow/St. Petersburg regions. Basically the unwritten contract is: as long as the war doesn't affect their lives too much, russian society will support Putin's war.

Word is that most of those surrendering are conscripts, they have absolutely no motivation to fight or die for Putin's war.

 

There are no "first line" troops any more. Almost all "elite" Russian units are heavily degraded according to analysts, in particular the ISW, because they were used for meatgrinder assaults in Ukraine.

[jakee 1,347]

2 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

There are reports that part of the Russian troops that have been taken captive are Akhmat-Kadirovites which would be a significant step up from "just border guards."

While the Chechens have a deserved reputation for viciousness, are they actually any good? My take was that they're effectively a provincial militia under a mad warlord without even the discipline of the Russian army.

[Phil1111 1,080]

3 hours ago, jakee said:

While the Chechens have a deserved reputation for viciousness, are they actually any good? My take was that they're effectively a provincial militia under a mad warlord without even the discipline of the Russian army.

What is this discipline of the Russian army that you speak of?

Does that mean sharing women captives? Sharing vodka?

[wolfriverjoe 1,462]

9 hours ago, ryoder said:

Taking (and holding) Russian territory would put them in the position of actually being able to negotiate a settlement; They could offer to pull out of Kursk if Putin gets the hell out of Ukraine. Up until now, they had nothing to offer.

It also puts the Russians in the position of having to decide to keep troops fighting in Ukraine, or trying to get them back to defend Russia.

Ukraine has been losing ground slowly, mainly due to supply issues. The Russian puppets in the US Congress & Senate have done a pretty good job of denying Ukraine the munitions it needs.

However, for Russia to pull it's troops back to Russia to try to kick Ukraine out, they'd have to actually be able to move them. 
And if they got them there, they'd need to be able to fight.

Right now, the numbers of transport vehicles isn't very large. 
And the armor they'd need to fight Ukraine isn't either.
There's a LOT of reports (and videos) of Russians using motorcycles and ATVs. Those usually don't fare very well, and the operators often die.

If the Russians pull troops back to fight Ukraine in Russia, they'll have to abandon the territory they've been fighting for.
And they'd have a hell of a time getting there. Ukraine has gotten pretty good at interdicting convoys.
The pictures of the Russian convoy (or what's left of it) from Kursk are pretty grim (or great, depending on your viewpoint).

I don't know how this is going to go, but I think Ukraine has gained a pretty big advantage with this 'invasion'.

I'm not totally convinced that Russia won't withdraw from Ukraine, and will try to fight back with border guards, cops and FSB. 
Which won't go very well.

[ryoder 1,553]

I was just thinking Ukraine should take this opportunity to hold a referendum in their captured territory to see who wants to become a part of Ukraine. ;-)

[riggerrob 601]

On 8/12/2024 at 10:05 AM, ryoder said:

Taking (and holding) Russian territory would put them in the position of actually being able to negotiate a settlement; They could offer to pull out of Kursk if Putin gets the hell out of Ukraine. Up until now, they had nothing to offer.

Why does this remind me of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War?

Israel invaded Eastern Egypt to later trade that conquered land for what Israel wanted more.

At the start of the war, Israel held all of the Sinai Peninsula. On the opening day, Egypt crossed the Suez Canal and captured maybe a quarter of the Sinai. Israel retaliated by making a left hook - south of the Egyptian Army - crossing the Suez Canal and were marching towards Cairo when the cease-fire came into effect.

During peace talks, Israel agreed to withdraw from the Sinai and gave the Sinai Peninsula back to Egypt in return for a peace that has lasted since then. It took Western nations another few years to de-mine the Suez Canal and re-open it to shipping. Please remember that the Sinai is arid and not much good for anything beyond strategic depth.

[ryoder 1,553]

I hope Lukashenko checked with his boss before he did this!

Belarus Deploys Aircraft to Shoot Down Russian Kamikaze Drones