Harris or Trump in November

[gowlerk 2,099]

54 minutes ago, kallend said:

I suppose innuendo and dog-whistles are OK.

A lot of people are saying that.

[SkyDekker 1,291]

2 hours ago, kallend said:

It's pretty telling that the GOP leaders have had publically to instruct their supporters not to use overtly racist or sexist language.

I suppose innuendo and dog-whistles are OK.

All while arguing racism no longer exists in the US.....

[JoeWeber 2,567]

3 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

All while arguing racism no longer exists in the US.....

Back to regularly scheduled programming, I'm loving that Harris is jerking leashes when they whistle dogs. Maybe some of us, me included, need to recalibrate our gravitas meters.

[nigel99 295]

As you know I’m interested in the betting odds as an indication of the race.

Harris has dropped down to 2, and Trump risen to 1.8 in the last 2 weeks. 

Today something interesting has happened, the odds for Nikki Haley have started to drop sharply. While still very long odds at 81, it’s a drop of over 30 points. 

[JerryBaumchen 1,271]

10 hours ago, nigel99 said:

As you know I’m interested in the betting odds as an indication of the race.

Harris has dropped down to 2, and Trump risen to 1.8 in the last 2 weeks. 

Today something interesting has happened, the odds for Nikki Haley have started to drop sharply. While still very long odds at 81, it’s a drop of over 30 points. 

Hi Nigel,

Hmmm, where will she be on the ballot?

I know she will not be on any ballot I fill out.

Jerry Baumchen

[billvon 2,739]

Latest Rasmussen poll:

@KamalaHarris 47%
@realDonaldTrump 42%
@RobertKennedyJr 6%

It is notable that Rasmussen has always had a pretty significant conservative bias.  MediaBiasFactCheck rates them center/right and mostly factual.

[nigel99 295]

3 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Nigel,

Hmmm, where will she be on the ballot?

I know she will not be on any ballot I fill out.

Jerry Baumchen

I suspect it’s an indication that some believe Trump will be ousted?

[ryoder 1,553]

5 minutes ago, nigel99 said:

I suspect it’s an indication that some believe Trump will be ousted?

Or possibly be behind bars, although "Judge" Cannon has made that very unlikely.

[wolfriverjoe 1,462]

31 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Or possibly be behind bars, although "Judge" Cannon has made that very unlikely.

He's still awaiting sentencing in New York.

I'm not holding my breath, but I have a tiny amount of hope.

[headoverheels 329]

7 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

He's still awaiting sentencing in New York.

I'm not holding my breath, but I have a tiny amount of hope.

Guidelines would be probation for the 34 counts.  The 10 counts of  contempt wouldn't be such, but I don't see those as being enforced either.  30 days each would be amusing (maybe just for the repeated 2-10 counts after a warning for the 1st).

[nigel99 295]

11 hours ago, ryoder said:

Or possibly be behind bars, although "Judge" Cannon has made that very unlikely.

The GOP are both spineless and self centred. Trump will never step down, but if the GOP sinks low enough they have a potential legal off ramp from Trump - the insurrection act. Those guys eat their young and if it furthers their self interest they will jump off the Trump carnival ride.

[headoverheels 329]

15 hours ago, nigel99 said:

The GOP are both spineless and self centred. Trump will never step down, but if the GOP sinks low enough they have a potential legal off ramp from Trump - the insurrection act. Those guys eat their young and if it furthers their self interest they will jump off the Trump carnival ride.

That's why I say that JD Vance was a good VP pick, at least as far as the base goes. Usually, the VP is selected to bring in another voter  demographic, but not here.  Vance is Trump's Mini-Me, so if something happens to Trump (mental or physical health, jail) Vance can step right in and nothing changes.

[nigel99 295]

8 minutes ago, headoverheels said:

That's why I say that JD Vance was a good VP pick, at least as far as the base goes. Usually, the VP is selected to bring in another voter  demographic, but not here.  Vance is Trump's Mini-Me, so if something happens to Trump (mental or physical health, jail) Vance can step right in and nothing changes.

I hope the stock market doesn’t help Donald

[wolfriverjoe 1,462]

29 minutes ago, nigel99 said:

I hope the stock market doesn’t help Donald

The repeated record highs over the past 3 years didn't seem to help Biden much.

It's going to have to tank pretty hard to reach where it was when Donnie was in office.

[nigel99 295]

1 hour ago, wolfriverjoe said:

The repeated record highs over the past 3 years didn't seem to help Biden much.

It's going to have to tank pretty hard to reach where it was when Donnie was in office.

Yes, but the dumb people seem to listen to Trumps drivel. 

[lippy 866]

2 hours ago, headoverheels said:

That's why I say that JD Vance was a good VP pick, at least as far as the base goes. Usually, the VP is selected to bring in another voter  demographic, but not here.  Vance is Trump's Mini-Me, so if something happens to Trump (mental or physical health, jail) Vance can step right in and nothing changes.

I'd say in that respect, he's more the Maduro to Trump's Chavez

[SkyDekker 1,291]

On 8/4/2024 at 1:20 AM, nigel99 said:

Today something interesting has happened, the odds for Nikki Haley have started to drop sharply. While still very long odds at 81, it’s a drop of over 30 points. 

That only means more money was getting placed than the house is comfortable with. Lines move with the movement of money.

[JerryBaumchen 1,271]

Hi folks,

I have to admit, Tim Walz was not on my radar; but, I am really starting to like him:  After noting that violent crime rates went up under Donald Trump, he added – with a smile - “and that doesn’t even count the crimes he committed”.

Tim Walz mixes jokes with jibes as he takes national stage (bbc.com)

Should be a lot of fun between now & 5 Nov.

Jerry Baumchen

[nigel99 295]

5 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

I have to admit, Tim Walz was not on my radar; but, I am really starting to like him:  After noting that violent crime rates went up under Donald Trump, he added – with a smile - “and that doesn’t even count the crimes he committed”.

Tim Walz mixes jokes with jibes as he takes national stage (bbc.com)

Should be a lot of fun between now & 5 Nov.

Jerry Baumchen

One thing this campaign has highlighted is how Americans had lost their joy and ‘American dream’. It’s a pretty deep rooted national trait and I can see it resonating.

Granted having a British background I think it’s a mildly annoying trait, stiff upper lip and not tooting your own horn is a bit more comfortable. 

[kallend 1,825]

What's weirder, Trump's behavior and speech, or the fact that he's taken a once great party with him?

[winsor 224]

37 minutes ago, kallend said:

What's weirder, Trump's behavior and speech, or the fact that he's taken a once great party with him?

Agreed Trump is FUBAR.  I wish the Democrats didn't try to make him look good by comparison.

[nigel99 295]

9 minutes ago, winsor said:

Agreed Trump is FUBAR.  I wish the Democrats didn't try to make him look good by comparison.

Can you explain specifically why you think the dems are worse than Donald?

My experience so far is that the people who hold your position struggle to state facts that can be backed up, hence my curiosity.

[Stumpy 283]

7 minutes ago, nigel99 said:

Can you explain specifically why you think the dems are worse than Donald?

My experience so far is that the people who hold your position struggle to state facts that can be backed up, hence my curiosity.

DEI something something socialist something something Woke etc.

[tkhayes 262]

On 8/5/2024 at 5:05 AM, nigel99 said:

The GOP are both spineless and self centred. Trump will never step down, but if the GOP sinks low enough they have a potential legal off ramp from Trump - the insurrection act. Those guys eat their young and if it furthers their self interest they will jump off the Trump carnival ride.

yeah but no one else would win at this point (IMO) and pretty sure Nikki Haley wouldn't have ANYTHING to do with Project2025, meaning their right wing Christian base would depart in droves.  Which is positive fdbk for them losing the election.

Trump is going nowhere because it is a cult.  they are not looking for a replacement and already have the plans to overthrow the election and the related violence in place.

Edited August 7 by tkhayes
typos

[gowlerk 2,099]

1 hour ago, Stumpy said:

DEI something something socialist something something Woke etc.

You forgot to mention that it is suspected that the candidate has had sex as well.