Belarus Next?

[Phil1111 908]

A couple days ago a western leaning foreign minister,Vladimir Makei of Belarus was killed. Most likely upon orders from Putin. The president of Belarus is Lukashenko a puppet of Putin. He invited Russia into Belarus for its attack on Kiev from the north. Invited Russian troops to quash domestic protests two years ago.

Vladimir Makei, a former GRU(KGB) trained officer was rumored to be leaning more to the west.Putin recently received 100 tanks from Belarus  He was likely demanding troops and more. Lukashenko’s “margin call” came a few weeks ago and he waffled in his response to Putin — a response, perhaps, that resulted in Makei’s demise. Lukashenko, once a vociferous supporter of Putin and his invasion of Ukraine, is now trying not to commit Belarusian “boots on ground.

"The pro-war Russian Telegram channel Mardan posted: 'Strange death. Just in time. Just yesterday he discussed a peace plan with the envoy of the Pope.'Narrative channel said: 'Makei was Lukashenko's main channel of communication with the West.

'A career intelligence officer, Makei was closely associated with Austrian intelligence and the Austrian elites. Makei provided a liberal trend.

'He often carried out delicate assignments from the Kremlin - and helped build special contacts between Moscow and the Austrians.

'At the same time, he was not a supporter of the Kremlin.'

Another channel Legitimniy stated: 'He was the main covert lobbyist for Western interests in Minsk."

A defacto takeover of Belarus may be next for Putin.

The challenges for NATO seem to be growing. RTV and FOX together with our own Slim King may have updates on Putin's intentions in the coming months.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Phil1111

[gowlerk 1,903]

1 hour ago, Phil1111 said:

A defacto takeover of Belarus may be next for Putin.

My understanding of the situation is that it has already occured.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

1 hour ago, gowlerk said:

My understanding of the situation is that it has already occured.

To a large degree, yes.

Putin's had Lukashenko in his pocket for a while.

The article (which is really an opinion piece) seems to indicate that Lukashenko is realizing how bad of an idea being tied to Putin is.

Presuming Makei was murdered (a pretty solid assumption), it could be a message to Lubashenko. It could be removing someone who was potentially creating an end to the war that Putin wouldn't like. Or a combination of both, along with other factors.

 

The article also pretty clearly points out why Slim is totally wrong about a 'negotiated peace'. Anything even remotely fair to the Ukrainians would be suicide for Putin. Either political or actual.

The Belarussians don't like the idea of throwing their troops and equipment into the meat grinder that is Ukraine.
But refusing Putin isn't super healthy either. 

It's going to get interesting.

I wonder how many more will have to die. Both cannon fodder on the ground, and the 'elites' in their 'safe' homes.

Before someone realizes that Putin has to go. 
And which route will Putin go?

"Napoleonic" (exile to some backwater island)?

Or in the footsteps of Mussolini (hanging from a balcony somewhere)?

[JerryBaumchen 1,047]

2 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

To a large degree, yes.

Putin's had Lukashenko in his pocket for a while.

The article (which is really an opinion piece) seems to indicate that Lukashenko is realizing how bad of an idea being tied to Putin is.

Presuming Makei was murdered (a pretty solid assumption), it could be a message to Lubashenko. It could be removing someone who was potentially creating an end to the war that Putin wouldn't like. Or a combination of both, along with other factors.

 

The article also pretty clearly points out why Slim is totally wrong about a 'negotiated peace'. Anything even remotely fair to the Ukrainians would be suicide for Putin. Either political or actual.

The Belarussians don't like the idea of throwing their troops and equipment into the meat grinder that is Ukraine.
But refusing Putin isn't super healthy either. 

It's going to get interesting.

I wonder how many more will have to die. Both cannon fodder on the ground, and the 'elites' in their 'safe' homes.

Before someone realizes that Putin has to go. 
And which route will Putin go?

"Napoleonic" (exile to some backwater island)?

Or in the footsteps of Mussolini (hanging from a balcony somewhere)?

Hi Joe,

I'll take Door #2.

Jerry Baumchen

 

[Phil1111 908]

On 12/1/2022 at 1:28 PM, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Joe,

I'll take Door #2.

Jerry Baumchen

 

"A leaked internal strategy document from Vladimir Putin’s executive office and obtained by Yahoo News lays out a detailed plan on how Russia plans to take full control over neighboring Belarus in the next decade under the pretext of a merger between the two countries. The document outlines in granular detail a creeping annexation by political, economic and military means of an independent but illiberal European nation by Russia, which is an active state of war in its bid to conquer Ukraine through overwhelming force."

Within seven years according to Putin.

[Faicon9493 114]

On 12/1/2022 at 10:05 AM, gowlerk said:

My understanding of the situation is that it has already occured.

Taking Ukraine is not the top of Putin's mountain. It's the bottom of the next one.