Dude, where are my hurricanes?

[brenthutch 383]

3 hours ago, olofscience said:

You've shown that you can't even do simple addition, or averages. I don't think you'll be able to do discrete integrals either. Call it a hunch.

I can’t do any of that, in fact I don’t know what any of that even is.  The only thing I can wrap my brain around is that there were no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin in August.  I’m sure a genius like you can set me straight and show the forum the errors of my observation.  Eagerly awaiting your tutorage.

[olofscience 420]

6 hours ago, brenthutch said:

I can’t do any of that, in fact I don’t know what any of that even is.

That's what the ACE metric is, which you just told us to look up. But thanks for confirming my hunch.

[metalslug 31]

14 hours ago, jakee said:

Meanwhile, Europe’s wildfire season is unprecedented to the degree that it has burned half again as much as the previous record. Farm fires and wildfires in England have stretched the emergency services to breaking point.

Well; let's still call a spade, a spade, OK? Global warming may well exacerbate the problem by drying out vegetation more rapidly but it's misleading to assert that this is causing wildfires.  In Europe, approx 9 out of 10 fires are ignited by human activities, such as arson, disposable barbeques, electricity lines, or littered glass, according to EU data. Warm weather very seldom results in spontaneous combustion of grasslands. Plenty of ways to prevent fires other than climate alarmism.

[jakee 1,254]

8 minutes ago, metalslug said:

Well; let's still call a spade, a spade, OK? Global warming may well exacerbate the problem by drying out vegetation more rapidly

Since you clearly agree with me, I’m not sure why you then went out of your way to manufacture a disagreement.
 

It’s misleading to imply that the rest of your response has anything to do with what I said. 

Edited September 2, 2022 by jakee

[jakee 1,254]

8 hours ago, brenthutch said:

The only thing I can wrap my brain around is that there were no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin in August. 

And as you have really explicitly just made clear, this is temporary weather. 

[olofscience 420]

40 minutes ago, metalslug said:

Well; let's still call a spade, a spade, OK? Global warming may well exacerbate the problem by drying out vegetation more rapidly but it's misleading to assert that this is causing wildfires.  In Europe, approx 9 out of 10 fires are ignited by human activities, such as arson, disposable barbeques, electricity lines, or littered glass, according to EU data. Warm weather very seldom results in spontaneous combustion of grasslands. Plenty of ways to prevent fires other than climate alarmism.

Dry lightning has sparked California's most destructive fires. Scientists say it could happen more often.

No humans needed. But there are also a lot of humans around, so what are you proposing - ban humans from wildfire-prone areas? Or just ban humans from making mistakes?

Arson has already been banned for a long time, so what's your suggestion to stop that?

Genius suggestions as usual... /s

 

Edit to add: the original NASA-funded study found that dry lightning started 30% of the fires that caused 50% of the burned area...so there goes your usual "very seldom" misinformation.

Edited September 2, 2022 by olofscience

[metalslug 31]

1 hour ago, metalslug said:

In Europe, approx 9 out of 10 fires are ignited by human activities, such as arson, disposable barbeques, electricity lines, or littered glass, according to EU data. Warm weather very seldom results in spontaneous combustion of grasslands. 

 

1 hour ago, olofscience said:

Dry lightning has sparked California's most destructive fires. Scientists say it could happen more often.

Edit to add: the original NASA-funded study found that dry lightning started 30% of the fires that caused 50% of the burned area...so there goes your usual "very seldom" misinformation.

Newsflash: California is not Europe. 

[gowlerk 1,902]

3 hours ago, metalslug said:

Well; let's still call a spade, a spade, OK? Global warming may well exacerbate the problem by drying out vegetation more rapidly but it's misleading to assert that this is causing wildfires.  In Europe, approx 9 out of 10 fires are ignited by human activities, such as arson, disposable barbeques, electricity lines, or littered glass, according to EU data. Warm weather very seldom results in spontaneous combustion of grasslands. Plenty of ways to prevent fires other than climate alarmism.

You need to stop and reflect on what you just wrote. If you can find it within yourself. I know a spade when I see one.

[olofscience 420]

1 hour ago, metalslug said:

 

Newsflash: California is not Europe. 

I believe I've already covered that with the first part of my post, which of course you couldn't answer.

[SkyDekker 1,120]

14 hours ago, brenthutch said:

 The only thing I can wrap my brain around is that there were no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin in August.  I’m sure a genius like you can set me straight and show the forum the errors of my observation.  Eagerly awaiting your tutorage.

Then you really should stick to just mumbling observations, because when you try and draw conclusions from your observations is when you get in over your head.

[billvon 2,380]

On 9/1/2022 at 10:38 AM, JoeWeber said:

Patience grasshopper.

One wonders what flavor of crow he is eating now, even as he denies that such things mean what they mean.

[billvon 2,380]

On 9/2/2022 at 2:11 AM, metalslug said:

Well; let's still call a spade, a spade, OK? Global warming may well exacerbate the problem by drying out vegetation more rapidly but it's misleading to assert that this is causing wildfires. 

Heat alone doesn't cause ANY wildfires.  Fires start all the time via lightning, human meddling and accidents.  That's nature.  As the climate warms and the forests dry, those same fires become far more deadly, widespread and damaging.  That's us.

[Phil1111 908]

On 9/1/2022 at 1:36 PM, brenthutch said:

Eastern North Pacific (East of 140°W)
Tropical Weather Outlook  1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion 1605 UTC Thu Sep 1 2022
There are no tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific at this time.

 

Central North Pacific (140°W to 180°)
Tropical Weather Outlook  800 AM HST Thu Sep 1 2022
There are no tropical cyclones in the Central North Pacific at this time.

 

You're a force in your own mind, aren't you!

[brenthutch 383]

.

Edited September 5, 2022 by brenthutch

[brenthutch 383]

8 hours ago, billvon said:

As the climate warms and the forests dry, those same fires become far more deadly, widespread and damaging.  That's us.

But I thought as the climate warms more water evaporates from the oceans into the atmosphere causing more rain and that was us.

[brenthutch 383]

“The climate change activists tout every hurricane, flood, drought, tornado, hot season, cold season, etc. as evidence for their hoax. “Extreme weather events” are mounting evidence of coming climate catastrophe, if we don’t all buy electric cars, eat insects, and use windmills and solar panels to cool and heat our homes and cook our bugs.”

https://townhall.com/columnists/marklewis/2022/09/05/come-on-hurricanes-get-with-the-climate-change-program-n2612658
 

The dreaded Floodrought 

[billvon 2,380]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

But I thought as the climate warms more water evaporates from the oceans into the atmosphere causing more rain and that was us.

Yep:

"Some areas got 14 inches of rain in a 72-hour time frame as the state saw record rainfall, the agency said."

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mississippi-mayor-urges-residents-get-now-state-braces-river-flooding-rcna45223

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

55 minutes ago, billvon said:

Yep:

"Some areas got 14 inches of rain in a 72-hour time frame as the state saw record rainfall, the agency said."

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mississippi-mayor-urges-residents-get-now-state-braces-river-flooding-rcna45223

Wait a minute...

You mean that AGW can cause LOCAL conditions to do strange and extreme things?

Like drought in one region and monsoons in another???

Preposterous!!! (yes, I know what that word means).

[brenthutch 383]

33 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Wait a minute...

You mean that AGW can cause LOCAL conditions to do strange and extreme things?

Like drought in one region and monsoons in another???

Preposterous!!! (yes, I know what that word means).

It’s only strange and extreme if they fall outside the range of natural variability, otherwise it’s just weather.

 

Edited September 5, 2022 by brenthutch

[SkyDekker 1,120]

2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

But I thought as the climate warms more water evaporates from the oceans into the atmosphere causing more rain and that was us.

So like Pakistan….

[brenthutch 383]

23 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

So like Pakistan….

“Pakistan’s economic recovery is facing new risks after the highest rainfall in at least three decades…”  So it was worse thirty years ago.  Again, if it doesn’t fall outside the range of historical natural variability, it is just weather.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-27/highest-rainfall-in-30-years-threatens-pakistan-s-recovery

[SkyDekker 1,120]

7 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

“Pakistan’s economic recovery is facing new risks after the highest rainfall in at least three decades…”  So it was worse thirty years ago.  Again, if it doesn’t fall outside the range of historical natural variability, it is just weather.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-27/highest-rainfall-in-30-years-threatens-pakistan-s-recovery

Interesting you think these things are just binary. Was the higher than normal rainfall preceded by higher than normal heat 30 years ago too?

 

[wmw999 2,116]

2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

It’s only strange and extreme if they fall outside the range of natural variability, otherwise it’s just weather.

 

Well, people whose average has changed might beg to differ.

Wendy P.

[brenthutch 383]

2 hours ago, wmw999 said:

Well, people whose average has changed might beg to differ.

Wendy P.

Example?

[olofscience 420]

To avoid moving goalposts (too frequently, he still does them lots), Brent's "range of natural variability" includes the biggest extremes in the past several million years.

Slim King's "range of natural variability" includes numbers that he thinks are small.

Edited September 6, 2022 by olofscience