When is a recession not a recession?

[brenthutch 383]

When it is two consecutive quarters of negative growth and the Democrats are in charge.

[GeorgiaDon 340]

I'm sure that when the Business Cycle Dating Committee or the National Bureau of Economic Research want to have an ex-DZ owner with no background in macroeconomics, or any other qualifications for that matter (except a lot of time on his hands that he likes to spend "owning the libtards") they will give you a call.

 

[brenthutch 383]

40 minutes ago, GeorgiaDon said:

I'm sure that when the Business Cycle Dating Committee or the National Bureau of Economic Research want to have an ex-DZ owner with no background in macroeconomics, or any other qualifications for that matter (except a lot of time on his hands that he likes to spend "owning the libtards") they will give you a call.

 

I have a MBA so I know a thing or two about macro economics.  BTW I don’t own the Libtards, reality does.

re·ces·sion

/rəˈseSH(ə)n/

Learn to pronounce

 

noun

 

1. 1. 

   a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

Edited July 28, 2022 by brenthutch

[GeorgiaDon 340]

If indeed you do hold a MBA I apologize.  I also wonder why you choose to advance an incomplete definition of "recession", at least as far as the Business Cycle Dating Committee (the only official entity that has authority to decide whether or not the economy is in a recession) is concerned.  Actually, I don't wonder why.  That is consistent with your usual MO.

[SkyDekker 1,121]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

I have a MBA so I know a thing or two about macro economics

Many MBA specializations that have nothing to do with macroeconomics.

And a generalized MBA teaches the basics across all specializations.

So no, an MBA doesn't automatically mean you know a thing or two about macroeconomics.

 

That being said, not sure what your post refers to? Did Biden say maybe you are not in a recession? If so, he might be wrong. But probably not as wrong as claiming COVID will just go away by itself.

[Phil1111 908]

3 hours ago, brenthutch said:

I have a MBA ...

Everyone knows a Wharton MBA ain't worth the paper its printed on. So your obsolete, assumptions, about economics, trade, international relations, consumer psychology, etc.Is excused for now.

[SkyDekker 1,121]

So far I wish every recession would be like this though:

Low unemployment, wages up and companies profitable.

[Phil1111 908]

10 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

So far I wish every recession would be like this though:

Low unemployment, wages up and companies profitable.

IMO recessions are necessary. The US FED, the EU central bank and other national money supply engineers. Believe that they are so smart they can relegate recessions to history.

Recessions eliminate the excesses of markets. They force discipline for governments, lenders and business. They force governments, business and individuals to live within their means.

Prior to the last recession QE was a unknown money supply management technique. But now the US FED has pumped $5 trillion into the economy since the last recession. Then the US debt has added another five trillion in the last five years and ten since the last recession. Guesstimates here as I'm too lazy to look up the figures again. The covid recession of shrinking GDP was tempered to the largest extent by collective government spending.

If you want a deal on a airplane,equities,boats, real estate, collectable cars, art, etc. A good recession is to be relished.

[squiffy 2]

MBA = Mediocre But Ambitious...

[JerryBaumchen 1,046]

15 minutes ago, squiffy said:

MBA = Mediocre But Ambitious...

Hi squiffy,

And, of course, the old adage:  I may be slow, but I am seldom right.

Jerry Baumchen

[brenthutch 383]

On 7/28/2022 at 6:08 PM, SkyDekker said:

So far I wish every recession would be like this though:

Low unemployment, wages up and companies profitable.

Real wages are down (that would be the opposite of up)

[Phil1111 908]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Real wages are down (that would be the opposite of up)

For a MBA you sure choose your sources of information poorly. Wharton?

From Dallas FED.

To further illustrate US GOP income inequality and how the rich have scammed the system:

Or did you get your MBA from FOX-U?

[brenthutch 383]

7 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

For a MBA you sure choose your sources of information poorly. Wharton?

From Dallas FED.

To further illustrate US GOP income inequality and how the rich have scammed the system:

Or did you get your MBA from FOX-U?

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.htm

“Real average hourly earnings decreased 3.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, from June 2021 to June 2022”

Is that better?

Edited August 1, 2022 by brenthutch

[Phil1111 908]

8 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.htm

“Real average hourly earnings decreased 3.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, from June 2021 to June 2022”

Is that better?

Cherry picking as usual. Are you ever honest in what you peddle?

"As we noted in a previous article, AHE growth is indicative not only of the underlying wage growth for individuals but also of changes in the composition of the workforce. This composition effect reflects average wages of individuals who leave the workforce, compared with those who enter it over the period. When those departing tend to have higher wages than entrants over a specified period, this contributes to a negative composition effect, where measured AHE growth understates the wage growth of individuals."

You probably cheat at golf as well. Shameful.

Edited August 1, 2022 by Phil1111

[brenthutch 383]

58 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Cherry picking as usual. Are you ever honest in what you peddle?

"As we noted in a previous article, AHE growth is indicative not only of the underlying wage growth for individuals but also of changes in the composition of the workforce. This composition effect reflects average wages of individuals who leave the workforce, compared with 

You are the one cherry picking my friend. I am using current data, you are going back years, using out of date information and conveniently ignores the current rate of inflation.  Are you so blinded by ideology that you can’t see the simple facts before you?

As far as golf goes, I took my son out on Saturday and shot an honest 71…

Edited August 1, 2022 by brenthutch

[brenthutch 383]

Oh that would be on nine holes 

[SkyDekker 1,121]

On 7/28/2022 at 9:10 AM, brenthutch said:

When it is two consecutive quarters of negative growth and the Democrats are in charge.

For a more serious answer. The NBER officially determines recessions. The following is directly from their website:

"Q: The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. How does that relate to the NBER's recession dates?

A: Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more consecutive quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them. In 2001, for example, the recession did not include two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. In the recession from the peak in December 2007 to the trough in June 2009, real GDP declined in the first, third, and fourth quarters of 2008 and in the first and second quarters of 2009. Real GDI declined for the final three quarters of 2001 and for five of the six quarters in the 2007–2009 recession.

Q: Why doesn't the committee accept the two-quarter definition?

A: There are several reasons. First, we do not identify economic activity solely with real GDP, but consider a range of indicators. Second, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity. The NBER definition includes the phrase, “a significant decline in economic activity." Thus real GDP could decline by relatively small amounts in two consecutive quarters without warranting the determination that a peak had occurred. Third, our main focus is on the monthly chronology, which requires consideration of monthly indicators. Fourth, in examining the behavior of production on a quarterly basis, where real GDP data are available, we give equal weight to real GDI. The difference between GDP and GDI—called the “statistical discrepancy”—was particularly important in the recessions of 2001 and 2007–2009."

 

Surprised a smart guy with an amazing MBA doesn't know this stuff.....

[brenthutch 383]

I guess we will just have to wait for NBER to make the call. So far they have been aligned with my assessment.  Unlike poor Kallend who still thought we were still in a recession until Biden was inaugurated.

[gowlerk 1,903]

I have not read the OP or anything from blocked posters. But my engagement is this.

For Americans facing decades-high inflation, near-record gas prices and ballooning grocery bills, it certainly may feel like it, but most economists say the US economy is not currently in a recession.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-23/all-about-recessions-including-thoughts-on-next-one-quicktake#:~:text=For Americans facing decades-high,not currently in a recession.

YMMV

[brenthutch 383]

1 hour ago, gowlerk said:

I have not read the OP or anything from blocked posters. But my engagement is this.

For Americans facing decades-high inflation, near-record gas prices and ballooning grocery bills, it certainly may feel like it, but most economists say the US economy is not currently in a recession.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-23/all-about-recessions-including-thoughts-on-next-one-quicktake#:~:text=For Americans facing decades-high,not currently in a recession.

YMMV

If the contraction continues and it may very well with the Fed doubling interest rates, NBER will likely conclude the recession began in the first quarter of 2022.

[SkyDekker 1,121]

2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

I guess we will just have to wait for NBER to make the call. So far they have been aligned with my assessment.  Unlike poor Kallend who still thought we were still in a recession until Biden was inaugurated.

Ah, so your two quarter opening remark was just trolling. Got it.

[billvon 2,380]

6 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Ah, so your two quarter opening remark was just trolling. Got it.

It pretty much all is.

[kallend 1,621]

I don't read BH's posts since he is just a vulgar troll on my ignore list, but I gather he seems to think he can read my mind.

[brenthutch 383]

7 minutes ago, kallend said:

I don't read BH's posts since he is just a vulgar troll on my ignore list, but I gather he seems to think he can read my mind.

I can read your posts

[brenthutch 383]

1 hour ago, SkyDekker said:

Ah, so your two quarter opening remark was just trolling. Got it.

No, it was to stimulate discussion