Biden is blowing it.

[Phil1111 910]

54 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Well, right now if Russia decided to attack Belarus, they couldn't.

Over 90% of their army is in Ukraine. 
Anything they would want to pull out of Ukraine to attack Belarus is desperately needed to hold back Ukrainian counter-attacks. 

And even if the Russians could spare any forces from Ukraine to attack Belarus, the Belarussian army may have something to say about that. 

The whole world has come to the realization of how incompetent and impotent Russia is. 

“There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent.” Lao Tzu also known as Sun Tzu

[wmw999 2,121]

7 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

“There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent.” Lao Tzu also known as Sun Tzu

Especially if your opponent has anchor on his shoulder and feels as though he has to prove something

Wendy P. 

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

15 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

“There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent.” Lao Tzu also known as Sun Tzu

That's very true.

But that doesn't really apply here.

Putin planned a 3 day assault to take Kyiv. A year later, he's still in Moscow, and BIDEN met with Zelensky in Kyiv. 

Again, the Russians have been trying to take a small and strategically pointless town for months, with no real results. Except a LOT of dead Russians (and Ukrainians) and huge losses of materials & equipment. 

Putin keeps saying 'if the West does this, it will be considered an attack on Russia and there will be consequences. Those 'red lines' keep getting ignored and the consequences are little more than nasty words from Putin. 

Russia is pretty much done for. 

These aren't my words, but they are pretty clear about the situation:

Quote

This event is going to teach the entire human world these three lessons.

1. The last empire – the USSR – was pronounced dead in 1989. The free world was too hasty with the death certificate because we all had waited too long... but, like an old and sick reptile, the Soviet empire woke up in its coffin that was left open, bit its neighbors, and attacked Ukraine in 2014.

We can’t let that happen again. This time we’ll make a control shot and properly nail the coffin lid.

2. Just before biting his smaller neighbors, Putin exposed to the world his complete inability to break away from the ancient mentality on which empires were built. He lamented that "The demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century. For the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory."

He was pathetically myopic. Grabbing more territory – with more natural resources, more population, and anything and everything physical in general – was important for Romans, Mongols, Brits, Spaniards, Turks, Chinese, Persians, and finally Russians, but in the distant past.

Today, gaining more territory is akin to gaining weight: you may look big but not necessarily strong, and probably not healthy. Real power is only marginally dependent on physical resources. The key production factors identified by Adam Smith in “The Wealth of Nations” (1776) – Land, Labor, Capital – have become secondary.

And that takes us to the second and the last strategic blunder of Putin.

3. As we have entered the Knowledge Economy, the key production factor today is Knowledge. Today, knowledge and creativity are the foundation of every powerful state, strong economy, and healthy nation. However, they do not come with the territory, and unlike the old tangible production factors, the new key production factor is extremely volatile.

This is the final nail in the Soviet coffin: instead of amassing the desired imperial power, Putin squandered all the available former Soviet physical resources and effectively eliminated the source of the future power and wealth of the state: brains and creativity. With his narrow KGB-trained operative mentality, Putin was unable to foresee that if you kill, rape, and chase away people, they will leave behind their money, furniture, and used appliances – but not their brains.

Wisdom, free thought, and creativity do not breed in captivity. They migrate toward liberty. And in Putin’s Russia, they have already done just that.

The bottom line: by destroying and squeezing out all creative thought, Putin deprived Russia of any future, guaranteeing its remaining unfortunate citizens a meager existence in the body of a dead crocodile.

The great Soviet Union can never be restored under any circumstances, and Belarus will not be annexed by it. For the monster's remaining inhabitants of the ex-USSR, the best option will be to cut the carcass into manageable pieces and transfer the responsibility for its burial to the consenting neighbors.

I am not trying to be funny; I am just seeing the pattern, and now I am excited to predict that this time it will be the end.

Ukrainians have already paid too high a price to free the world from the old reptile. We shall help them to get back to normal soonest and we will remember their heroic deed for many generations.

Read the third point carefully.

Over a million young men fled Russia to avoid dying as draftees in Ukraine.

They won't be coming back, at least not as long as Putin is in power. 

Last point:

The idea that Russia would absorb Belarus was from late 2021. Back when people were afraid of Russia. 
That simply is not going to happen today.

[gowlerk 1,910]

14 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Except a LOT of dead Russians (and Ukrainians) and huge losses of materials & equipment. 

Which is the point. Ukraine is running out of deployable trained soldiers. Putin's ruthless bloody tactics will work in the end unless something changes.

[Phil1111 910]

1 hour ago, wolfriverjoe said:

...Last point:

The idea that Russia would absorb Belarus was from late 2021. Back when people were afraid of Russia. 
That simply is not going to happen today.

January 4, 2023  "Talks of dictator Alexander Lukashenko's Belarus becoming Russia's vassal gained ground in 2020 when the regime violently crushed all forms of descent, with Moscow's full backing.{Including Russian troops and FSB backing]

Two years later, Lukashenko's Belarus is barely independent from the Kremlin.

The Belarusian economy is dependent on Russia's direct and indirect financial contributions, the Russian army is stationed all across the country, and its territory is used to launch missiles against Ukraine.

Russia trains Belarusian troops, the country's opposition is in prison or exile, while the country's official language, Belarusian, is being actively suppressed by the authorities in favor of Russian.

Belarus is also part of the Union State, a political union with Russia that used to slowly integrate Belarus into its warmongering neighbor. "

[JoeWeber 2,299]

2 hours ago, gowlerk said:

Which is the point. Ukraine is running out of deployable trained soldiers. Putin's ruthless bloody tactics will work in the end unless something changes.

My understanding is that in the beginning the home guard took a shellacking while the military training pipeline was being developed. They're a country of 44 million and it seems the patriotic mood is high. What makes you think Ukraine isn't training more soldiers in a sustainable way?

[gowlerk 1,910]

1 minute ago, JoeWeber said:

My understanding is that in the beginning the home guard took a shellacking while the military training pipeline was being developed. They're a country of 44 million and it seems the patriotic mood is high. What makes you think Ukraine isn't training more soldiers in a sustainable way?

A radio interview with a soldier on the front line. He stated that the army has now lost many or even most of the well trained and motivated soldiers it had to start with and that many of the replacements are young conscripts who are not well trained and not very well motivated either. I know it's anecdotal, but it rang true. 

[JoeWeber 2,299]

4 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

A radio interview with a soldier on the front line. He stated that the army has now lost many or even most of the well trained and motivated soldiers it had to start with and that many of the replacements are young conscripts who are not well trained and not very well motivated either. I know it's anecdotal, but it rang true. 

So, no, you don't have any useful or credible info. If Brent gave that answer you'd have skewered him.

[gowlerk 1,910]

2 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

So, no, you don't have any useful or credible info. If Brent gave that answer you'd have skewered him.

I didn't like hearing it either. It was either part of an NPR or a BBC story. I don't skewer or reply to the troll. Our leaders and the media we listen to usually present a positive picture of events in times of war. I'm far more likely to give weight to bad news than to good news.

[JoeWeber 2,299]

10 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

I didn't like hearing it either. It was either part of an NPR or a BBC story. I don't skewer or reply to the troll. Our leaders and the media we listen to usually present a positive picture of events in times of war. I'm far more likely to give weight to bad news than to good news.

Brent's not a Troll, he's something different. He's like the kid who sneaks downstairs to the adult party and tosses a frog into the punchbowl. The only reason it's useful to call him a Troll is because under the dysfunctional SC system it's one of the few ad hominem attacks we're allowed. 

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

28 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

A radio interview with a soldier on the front line. He stated that the army has now lost many or even most of the well trained and motivated soldiers it had to start with and that many of the replacements are young conscripts who are not well trained and not very well motivated either. I know it's anecdotal, but it rang true. 

Ok, thanks.

I was going to ask the same question.

I did a quick search and didn't find much one way or the other (at least nothing less than 6 months old).

I don't know how much weight I'd give one anecdote from one soldier in one location.

I don't doubt that the casualties are having this sort of effect.
I don't know how widespread it is. 

One of the claims coming from Ukraine (and it's cheerleaders) is that the casualties are running way higher for the Russians. 

There's all sorts of speculation about what kind of 'spring offensive' Ukraine is planning and how it will go. 

[gowlerk 1,910]

3 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

One of the claims coming from Ukraine (and it's cheerleaders) is that the casualties are running way higher for the Russians. 

Yes, absolutely. If it becomes strictly a numbers game that would not be good. In the end most likely there is still going to be a Ukraine. It's borders will not be what either side wants. Whatever they are it will be firmly aligned with the west and no Russian will be able to say it has not earned the right to be an independent nation. But the price will be high and the memories will be lasting.

[ryoder 1,382]

How about a viewpoint from an unhappy camper at the top of the heirarchy, rather than the trenches?

NYT: Russia’s Top Paramilitary Chief Accuses Army Command of Treason

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

1 hour ago, Phil1111 said:

January 4, 2023  "Talks of dictator Alexander Lukashenko's Belarus becoming Russia's vassal gained ground in 2020 when the regime violently crushed all forms of descent, with Moscow's full backing.{Including Russian troops and FSB backing]

Two years later, Lukashenko's Belarus is barely independent from the Kremlin.

The Belarusian economy is dependent on Russia's direct and indirect financial contributions, the Russian army is stationed all across the country, and its territory is used to launch missiles against Ukraine.

Russia trains Belarusian troops, the country's opposition is in prison or exile, while the country's official language, Belarusian, is being actively suppressed by the authorities in favor of Russian.

Belarus is also part of the Union State, a political union with Russia that used to slowly integrate Belarus into its warmongering neighbor. "

Very true.

And anything over a year ago, I'd fully agree that Belarus would be 'absorbed' into Russia.

But they aren't now, and I think Putin's debacle in Ukraine has made it less likely.

 

[Phil1111 910]

The UK is training Ukrainian solders, so is Germany and Poland. Keep in mind that Ukraine has been fighting Russian trained separatists since 2014. Most of the line of contact with Russia is quiet with little movement or engagement of forces.

Ukrainian casualties have been consistent at about 100 killed a day So likely another 300 wounded. Russian casualties have been up to ten times that amount. Local defense forces may have had many of its best troops KIA or WIA. But Ukraine is concentrating in building up new units in reserve forces. Designed to be deployed if and when Russia launches its much vaunted "spring offensive".

[Phil1111 910]

1 minute ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Very true.

And anything over a year ago, I'd fully agree that Belarus would be 'absorbed' into Russia.

But they aren't now, and I think Putin's debacle in Ukraine has made it less likely.

 

Putin only knows one response to any opposition to what he sets his mind to. Double down. Then double down again. He could easily call up another million men. He may eventually find a good general to lead them. Rest assured he has ordered 24/7 artillery shell production. NATO just can't do that.

Ukraine currently has about a million men and women under arms. In reserve forces and regular military.

Many of the artillery systems in Ukraine using old Soviet calibers will be completely out of ammo in another two months. That leaves them with NATO 155mm systems of which they may have 200?? artillery systems. NATO gave Ukraine over 700 rocket and artillery systems up to the start of December 2022. Soon they will be useless.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

Putin is buying Iranian drones.

And is buying artillery shells from North Korea.

Russia can't manufacture enough to keep up. As was noted in the post above, Wagner has basically been cut off of artillery shells. That's partly because Putin had decided that Prigozhin has become too much of a threat, but also because there simply aren't enough to go around.
Ukraine has done a very good job of targeting supply depots. They leave the actual guns alone because taking out one tube just stops that gun from firing, but blowing up the ammunition supply means none of the guns can fire. 

And Russia can't produce anything that uses computer chips, because sanctions have greatly reduced the supply of those.

So the missiles they've been launching at Ukraine have not been coming at the rate they were previously. 

OTOH, there are something like 54 countries actively supporting Ukraine. The US can't do it alone, but we don't have to.

There isn't enough production to keep up with demand, but production is being ramped up. Whether or not it can get fast enough fast enough is a good question. 
Critics are saying that we are giving Ukraine so much that we're leaving ourselves short, which has some validity.

I don't know if there will be enough for Ukraine to push Russia back out with their spring offensive.

As I've said, it's going to be a very interesting spring & summer.

I personally believe Ukraine is going to win.

But nothing is for sure.

[Phil1111 910]

7 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

...I personally believe Ukraine is going to win.

But nothing is for sure.

On this we agree. Latest polling in Ukraine shows a 90% number polled that Ukraine will defeat Russia and win all its land back.

OTOH Putin, Tucker Carlson and Hannity believe it will be Russia.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

7 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

On this we agree. Latest polling in Ukraine shows a 90% number polled that Ukraine will defeat Russia and win all its land back.

OTOH Putin, Tucker Carlson and Hannity believe it will be Russia.

Well, if any of those three said that the sun was going to come up in the east tomorrow morning, I'd get up and double check.

Carlson has turned into a blatant Russian propagandist.
To the point that he's featured on Russian TV. 

[gowlerk 1,910]

1 hour ago, wolfriverjoe said:

I personally believe Ukraine is going to win.

But nothing is for sure.

No one will win. It will be a stalemate.

[kallend 1,623]

6 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

These aren't my words, but they are pretty clear about the situation:

He was pathetically myopic. Grabbing more territory – with more natural resources, more population, and anything and everything physical in general – was important for Romans, Mongols, Brits, Spaniards, Turks, Chinese, Persians, and finally Russians, but in the distant past.

Why omit the USA.  13 original states became 50, + several territories, grabbing land and resources, and displacing the indigenous people as they went.

[billvon 2,396]

4 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

OTOH Putin, Tucker Carlson and Hannity believe it will be Russia.

Well, at least are praying that that will be the case.

[olofscience 420]

11 hours ago, gowlerk said:

not very well motivated either.

Not very well motivated? So they want to roll over and let the russians rule over them?

[gowlerk 1,910]

5 hours ago, olofscience said:

Not very well motivated? So they want to roll over and let the russians rule over them?

No, they don't want to do what soldiers have always needed to do. You know, kill people and and take a chance on being killed. Not everyone wants to do that. Which is why conscripts often make poor warriors.

[Coreece 190]

On 2/23/2023 at 10:11 PM, kallend said:

Why omit the USA.  13 original states became 50, + several territories, grabbing land and resources, and displacing the indigenous people as they went.

Pequot War (1636-1638): A conflict between the Pequot tribe and English colonists and their allies in Connecticut.

King Philip's War (1675-1678): A conflict between the Wampanoag tribe and other Native American tribes against English colonists in New England.

French and Indian War (1754-1763): A war between France and Great Britain that involved many Native American tribes, including the Huron, Ottawa, and Shawnee.

Pontiac's War (1763-1766): A conflict between Native American tribes, led by the Ottawa chief Pontiac, and British colonists in the Great Lakes region.

 

Any relation John?

 

And then as for the 1800s:

Creek War (1813-1814): A conflict between the Creek tribe and the United States government in what is now Alabama.

Seminole Wars (1817-1858): A series of conflicts between the Seminole tribe and the United States government in Florida.

Black Hawk War (1832): A conflict between the Sauk and Fox tribes and the United States government in Illinois and Wisconsin.

Dakota War of 1862: A conflict between the Dakota tribe and the United States government in Minnesota.

Colorado War (1863-1865): A conflict between the Cheyenne and Arapaho tribes and the United States government in Colorado.

Modoc War (1872-1873): A conflict between the Modoc tribe and the United States government in California and Oregon.

Nez Perce War (1877): A conflict between the Nez Perce tribe and the United States government in Idaho, Montana, and Oregon.

Apache Wars (1851-1900): A series of conflicts between the Apache tribe and the United States government in the southwestern United States.

 

And then those of us who practically just got here less than 100 years ago (Eastern Europeans for example) have listen ad nauseam to the blowhard descendants of these miserable blokes projecting onto everyone else how WE'RE the toxic, patriarchal imperialistic racists that should be ashamed of ourselves!