Biden’s war on fossil fuel and gas price timeline

[brenthutch 383]

1 minute ago, Phil1111 said:

Above US existing home sales "Sales went down for a third consecutive month, in another sign the housing market is cooling, as higher home prices and mortgage rates have reduced buyer activity."

New Homes Sales Tumble in April, Down Nearly 27% From a Year Ago

Its ok though. Home Prices Have Begun Falling: Here Are the Cities Where They’re Down the Most

Lower home prices help the poor!

Any drop in the price of a house is more than offset by the increase in interest rates.

[airdvr 197]

Don't believe everything you read.  While it may be true in certain areas the existing home market is still red hot.

New home sales are down due to the rise in lumber costs.

[Phil1111 910]

1 minute ago, brenthutch said:

Any drop in the price of a house is more than offset by the increase in interest rates.

What if its an all cash deal?

[brenthutch 383]

5 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

I am asking you. Do even higher than anticipated interest rates increase or decrease the coming recession?

If you are predicting higher than anticipated interest rates, they aren’t all that unanticipated.  What is your point?

[SkyDekker 1,121]

6 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

You are lying again.

[Phil1111 910]

2 minutes ago, airdvr said:

Don't believe everything you read.  While it may be true in certain areas the existing home market is still red hot.

New home sales are down due to the rise in lumber costs.

Lumber is the same price as it was May 2018

The last quote that I referenced there was from the NAR. Are you saying that your own professional association lies? ...mmm....Must be republican!

[SkyDekker 1,121]

1 minute ago, brenthutch said:

If you are predicting higher than anticipated interest rates, they aren’t all that unanticipated.  What is your point?

The DOW has the recession built in according to you. According to you the recession is due to higher fuel costs, which leads to higher inflation, which leads to higher interest rates, which leads to recession.

Do even higher than anticipated interest rates increase or decrease the coming recession?

[brenthutch 383]

Just now, SkyDekker said:

You are lying again.

Just like you said I was lying about the DOW dropping for seven straight weeks.

 

[brenthutch 383]

6 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

What if its an all cash deal?

The poor are not usually in a position to take advantage of an all cash deal 

[SkyDekker 1,121]

2 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Just like you said I was lying about the DOW dropping for seven straight weeks.

I provided proof, dated today, that showed you were lying. 

Or did you just mean that at some point in time the DOW went down for 7 weeks and that proves something?

[olofscience 420]

2 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Just like you said I was lying about the DOW dropping for seven straight weeks.

Just like your global temperature graphs, eh?

Past 4 weeks:

[Phil1111 910]

2 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

The poor are not usually in a position to take advantage of an all cash deal 

Oh pleeeeease. Both you and airdvr are concerned about the poor. At the same time! I think I'm having an aneurysm.

[wmw999 2,121]

17 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

I must say, this is a new low. The NPS assumes that animals that don’t fight for their food will die. In this society, we set human life (well, at least some of them) above animals.

So are the poor animals? No better than the Irish? (Refer to Swift)

Wendy P. 

[brenthutch 383]

Just now, SkyDekker said:

I provided proof, dated today, that showed you were lying. 

Or did you just mean that at some point in time the DOW went down for 7 weeks and that proves something?

In the past few months the DOW dropped seven weeks in a row (I believe that may be a record) in anticipation of a slowing economy. The recent rebound is nothing more than proof of the old adage, buy low sell high.  The market may be over sold which is bringing in some bargain hunters.  You really don’t know how this works do you?

[SkyDekker 1,121]

3 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

In the past few months the DOW dropped seven weeks in a row (I believe that may be a record) in anticipation of a slowing economy. The recent rebound is nothing more than proof of the old adage, buy low sell high.  The market may be over sold which is bringing in some bargain hunters.  You really don’t know how this works do you?

Yet in all your economic knowledge you still have not been able to answer a very simple question:

15 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Do even higher than anticipated interest rates increase or decrease the coming recession?

 

Edited May 27, 2022 by SkyDekker

[brenthutch 383]

10 minutes ago, olofscience said:

Just like your global temperature graphs, eh?

Past 4 weeks:

 

17 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

I provided proof, dated today, that showed you were lying. 

Or did you just mean that at some point in time the DOW went down for 7 weeks and that proves something?

“Although this was an expected, and highly talked about potential ‘oversold’ rally, the underpinning for today’s market climb higher”

Just like I said

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/25/stock-market-news-futures-open-to-close.html

[SkyDekker 1,121]

yeah still not answering the question....shocking.

[brenthutch 383]

12 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

yeah still not answering the question....shocking.

You question doesn’t make sense.  Define higher than anticipated.

[SkyDekker 1,121]

8 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

You question doesn’t make sense.  Define higher than anticipated.

Let's see if I can dumb it down a bit. As interest rates continue to go up, does the coming recession get worse/deeper?

[brenthutch 383]

Just now, SkyDekker said:

Let's see if I can dumb it down a bit. As interest rates continue to go up, does the coming recession get worse/deeper?

It depends on how high. A return to historical norms?  Perhaps no.  A  Volckere-esque 20%? Most definitely so.

[SkyDekker 1,121]

3 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

It depends on how high. A return to historical norms?  Perhaps no.

Historical average interest rate over the last 50 years is 5.44%. Currently the interest rate is ranging from 0.75% to 1.00% with a target of around 3.25%. Still well below historical norms.

Yet you are saying this increase to lower than average interest rates is driven by higher fuel costs and will lead to a recession.

 

[brenthutch 383]

8 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Historical average interest rate over the last 50 years is 5.44%. Currently the interest rate is ranging from 0.75% to 1.00% with a target of around 3.25%. Still well below historical norms.

Yet you are saying this increase to lower than average interest rates is driven by higher fuel costs and will lead to a recession.

 

Given that the economy contracted 1.5% in the first quarter and inflation and interest rates have only gotten higher, it doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibilities.  A mitigating factor would be the two trillion additional dollars sitting in folks checking accounts since the beginning of the pandemic.  That pent up demand can go a long way to mitigate the impact of higher interest rates.  

[Phil1111 910]

11 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Given that the economy contracted 1.5% in the first quarter and inflation and interest rates have only gotten higher, it doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibilities.  A mitigating factor would be the two trillion additional dollars sitting in folks checking accounts since the beginning of the pandemic.  That pent up demand can go a long way to mitigate the impact of higher interest rates.  

Above US household debt to GDP is at historic highs. At least GOP members and supporters came out on top with $$$ in the bank.

Recessions just bring on some good deals off the backs of the poor. Right Brent?

Is that $2 trillion attributed to trump? Or to President Biden?

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

12 hours ago, wmw999 said:

... The NPS assumes that animals that don’t fight for their food will die...

Not exactly.

My understanding (and I could be wrong on this) is that animals that are fed by people become 'food dependent' on those people.

They stop finding other sources of food and go to the people.

When tourist season ends, the 'people food' ends too. 
Without other sources of food, the animals then starve.

The same thing happens with a backyard bird feeder.
The birds become dependent on it as a food supply.
If the person moves, or dies, or for whatever reason stops filling the feeder, the birds can starve, especially in times of limited 'other sources' (like winter).

There's also the 'feeding animals will make them see people as a food source, so they might get aggressive towards any and all people when they are hungry' rationale.

There was one on FB fairly recently that said something to the effect of:

"Naturalists advise against feeding moose because the moose will see all people as a food source and attack anyone who doesn't feed them. 
I think I found my new hobby."

[airdvr 197]

12 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

Lumber is the same price as it was May 2018

The last quote that I referenced there was from the NAR. Are you saying that your own professional association lies? ...mmm....Must be republican!

While that might be true I've never known a builder to roll back a price increase.