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JoeWeber

Putin blinks

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Putin could have said any number of things in his speech that were specifically confrontational to NATO arms suppliers. He did not. It was weak which he must know. In poker terms it seemed to me a call. No aircraft fly over, no real bluster. Maybe, just maybe, he's beginning to listen to wiser counsel.

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Putin is in an untenable situation from most reports.

We like to think that by removing a 'bad man' from power (think Saddam Hussein), sweetness and light will prevail.  Unfortunately, the despot in charge is often the best you are going to get, and the process of replacement can, and often does, result in much, much worse.

'Pravda' meaning truth and 'Izvestia' meaning news, the common observation was "in Pravda there is no Izvestia, and in Izvestia there is no Pravda."  Having said that, if you wanted background on any news story, a Soviet citizen would then parrot back the story published in Pravda or Izvestia verbatim.

Thus, about the best scenario for which we might hope is for Putin to be able to declare 'victory' ('Mission Accomplished,' anyone?) and somehow distract the populous otherwise.  Everyone will know it's bullshit - but then again, isn't everything? - and they could then move on.

Both Niccolo Machiavelli and H. L. Mencken observed that successful uprisings against tyrants were invariably preceded by a lessening of oppression, which is rightly or wrongly perceived as a sign of weakness by the opposition waiting in the wings.

Various pundits have claimed that for Putin, retiring to a Dacha to write his memoirs is not an option.  Whoever takes over would likely ensure their successful transition by the unfortunate and untimely death of the much loved president, whose memory will be cherished.

I do hope that conflict in Ukraine draws to a close in the very near future, but have not come across a scenario that does not include a breathtaking level of ugliness in the meantime.

 

BSBD.

Winsor

 

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5 hours ago, winsor said:

Putin is in an untenable situation from most reports.

We like to think that by removing a 'bad man' from power (think Saddam Hussein), sweetness and light will prevail.  Unfortunately, the despot in charge is often the best you are going to get, and the process of replacement can, and often does, result in much, much worse.

'Pravda' meaning truth and 'Izvestia' meaning news, the common observation was "in Pravda there is no Izvestia, and in Izvestia there is no Pravda."  Having said that, if you wanted background on any news story, a Soviet citizen would then parrot back the story published in Pravda or Izvestia verbatim.

Thus, about the best scenario for which we might hope is for Putin to be able to declare 'victory' ('Mission Accomplished,' anyone?) and somehow distract the populous otherwise.  Everyone will know it's bullshit - but then again, isn't everything? - and they could then move on.

Both Niccolo Machiavelli and H. L. Mencken observed that successful uprisings against tyrants were invariably preceded by a lessening of oppression, which is rightly or wrongly perceived as a sign of weakness by the opposition waiting in the wings.

Various pundits have claimed that for Putin, retiring to a Dacha to write his memoirs is not an option.  Whoever takes over would likely ensure their successful transition by the unfortunate and untimely death of the much loved president, whose memory will be cherished.

I do hope that conflict in Ukraine draws to a close in the very near future, but have not come across a scenario that does not include a breathtaking level of ugliness in the meantime.

 

BSBD.

Winsor

 

The trick is to come up with something to sell. Maybe the separatist regions get circled with a sharpie and called a demilitarized zone and the population gets to take a UN supervised vote on statehood. If they vote to be a part of Russia, which seems likely, the EU might then fund the repatriations to Ukraine. New promises to be broken and lie filled proclamations are made and everyone pitches in on the clean up paid for by buying Russian gas and oil at a discount.

The Canadians can turn the thumb screws on Putins squeeze a little tighter to get some inside support for the deal and the Germans can work with the Italians to free up his yacht so he has a place to hide for a while. Bada Bing!

 

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trump's bosom buddy has blinked again. " President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has said that the alliance’s expansion poses “no direct threat to us,” but that Russia would respond “based on the threats that are created.”

Perhaps now would be a good time to push Putin further.

Like another tyrant, Putin has decided to run everything himself. No I don't mean trump. Putin has fashioned himself as a military genius. He is now co-directing military operations.

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1 hour ago, Phil1111 said:

trump's bosom buddy has blinked again. " President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has said that the alliance’s expansion poses “no direct threat to us,” but that Russia would respond “based on the threats that are created.”

Perhaps now would be a good time to push Putin further.

Like another tyrant, Putin has decided to run everything himself. No I don't mean trump. Putin has fashioned himself as a military genius. He is now co-directing military operations.

What? Trump told us he knows more than the generals. He called them losers and babies. 

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(edited)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61484222

Quote

 

The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan.

But on Monday night, studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture.

He warned that "the situation [for Russia] will clearly get worse" as Ukraine receives additional military assistance from the West and that "the Ukrainian army can arm a million people".

Referring to Ukrainian soldiers, he noted: "The desire to defend their motherland very much exists. Ultimate victory on the battlefield is determined by the high morale of troops who are spilling blood for the ideas they are ready to fight for.

"The biggest problem with [Russia's] military and political situation," he continued, "is that we are in total political isolation and the whole world is against us, even if we don't want to admit it. We need to resolve this situation.

"The situation cannot be considered normal when against us, there is a coalition of 42 countries and when our resources, military-political and military-technical, are limited."

And this is on (effectively) the Russian state news show. Personally I doubt it was unplanned, and it's very carefully worded. I guess we'll know if the retired colonel 'disappears' in the next couple of days.

 

 

 
Edited by yoink

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On 5/18/2022 at 8:52 AM, yoink said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61484222

And this is on (effectively) the Russian state news show. Personally I doubt it was unplanned, and it's very carefully worded. I guess we'll know if the retired colonel 'disappears' in the next couple of days.

 

 

 

 He said essentially the same thing in an article published before Russia invaded. Basically called the pro war commentators and political analysts idiots who didn't have a clue what they were talking about. You could see the female panellist here trying desperately to divert him from his message.

 I wouldn't be drinking tea or going near any windows in high rise buildings if I was him.

 Perhaps it was a way of letting Putin off the hook a little if he backs down. Claiming he was misinformed by his "experts".  Followed by the ritual purging of a few bigwigs.

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(edited)

I certainly see why Putin and trump got along so well. A sailor on the Russian flagship Moskova was killed when it sank. His family was informed that their son would not receive death benefits. Because it was not in Ukrainian waters when it accidentally sank.

I'm sure trump would chuckle at that one.

Edited by Phil1111
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15 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

I certainly see why Putin and trump got along so well. A sailor on the Russian flagship Moskova was killed when it sank. His family was informed that their son would not receive death benefits. Because it was not in Ukrainian waters when it accidentally sank.

I'm sure trump would chuckle at that one.

 

15 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

I certainly see why Putin and trump got along so well. A sailor on the Russian flagship Moskova was killed when it sank. His family was informed that their son would not receive death benefits. Because it was not in Ukrainian waters when it accidentally sank.

I'm sure trump would chuckle at that one.

Typical bureaucrats prolonging the grief of the family of a casualty of war.

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15 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

A sailor on the Russian flagship Moskova was killed when it sank. His family was informed that their son would not receive death benefits. Because it was not in Ukrainian waters when it accidentally sank.

I love it!  "Yes, your son was shot during combat, but he didn't die of being shot.  He was alive for several minutes afterwards, and died to an unrelated malady.  The doctors are calling it exsanguination, which is different.  Why should we be on the hook for some sort of disease that his carelessness caused?"

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On 5/20/2022 at 11:16 AM, billvon said:

I love it!  "Yes, your son was shot during combat, but he didn't die of being shot.  He was alive for several minutes afterwards, and died to an unrelated malady.  The doctors are calling it exsanguination, which is different.  Why should we be on the hook for some sort of disease that his carelessness caused?"

Dear billvon,

If that Russian sailor did not die in the initial fire, the two next most likely causes of death are hypothermia or drowning in the cold Black Sea. If Mr. Poutine can blame the Black Sea, he avoids political responsibility for the sailor's death. Perhaps he can blame the sailor for not full-dressing before he ran up on deck.

Did "Moskva" even carry enough cold-water immersion suits?

Sarcasm alert!

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27 minutes ago, riggerrob said:

If that Russian sailor did not die in the initial fire, the two next most likely causes of death are hypothermia or drowning in the cold Black Sea. If Mr. Poutine can blame the Black Sea, he avoids political responsibility for the sailor's death. Perhaps he can blame the sailor for not full-dressing before he ran up on deck.

I am sure that Putin, with some help from his staunch allies in the US GOP, can find a way to blame Biden for his death.

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1 hour ago, billvon said:

I am sure that Putin, with some help from his staunch allies in the US GOP, can find a way to blame Biden for his death.

I have been consistent on these pages that the slow boil strategy was right. I think he facts on the ground in Ukraine, from a purely strategic point of view, have validated that idea. Now, my opinion has changed. Now I think we need to up the game. We need to give our Eastern European NATO partners free rein to supply their soviet era weaponry to Ukraine with a promise that the US will supply replacements. That includes operating aircraft. Just believing the Russians are incompetent is nice. Realizing that if they close that gap will give them an opportunity to sue for peace is another. Now is the time to get serious.

Screen Shot 2022-05-23 at 10.58.57 PM.png

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11 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

I have been consistent on these pages that the slow boil strategy was right. I think he facts on the ground in Ukraine, from a purely strategic point of view, have validated that idea. Now, my opinion has changed. Now I think we need to up the game. We need to give our Eastern European NATO partners free rein to supply their soviet era weaponry to Ukraine with a promise that the US will supply replacements. That includes operating aircraft. Just believing the Russians are incompetent is nice. Realizing that if they close that gap will give them an opportunity to sue for peace is another. Now is the time to get serious.

Screen Shot 2022-05-23 at 10.58.57 PM.png

Hi Joe,

Glad to see you come around. 

The time to strike is when the iron is hot.  And, that time is now.

Jerry Baumchen

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1 hour ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Joe,

Glad to see you come around. 

The time to strike is when the iron is hot.  And, that time is now.

Jerry Baumchen

The US is supplying patriot missile systems to Ukraine. Denmark is supplying Harpoon missiles together with land based launchers. Ukraine and other allies are talking more and more about taking back all the "occupiers" advances.

Russian troops have now stopped knocking holes in their fuel tanks. Instead they are just refusing to fight in larger and larger numbers.Putin has responded by opening the Russian army to over 40 year olds.

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2 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

I don't think so. I think we're looking at sending them to Poland and Slovakia so they can send their Russian S-300 systems.

You're right. I read several reports that Ukraine was getting them directly. But none were from credible sources(upon review). Poland just announced however that it's buying six more patriot batteries to add to its existing two. Eight launchers per battery each with four missiles. Together with a phased array radar.

Romania has announced a $3.9 billion patriot purchase.

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Well Putin may be doing some crying. Russia launched a new spy satellite The Angara-1 rocket/ payload failed " But embarrassingly, the payload delivered into space is thought to have a significant issue and may even fall straight back down to Earth. Space journalist Anatoly Zak wrote on Twitter: “A classified payload, delivered into orbit in the first launch of the Angara-1 rocket last month, appears to be inactive and will fall back to Earth without manoeuvres.”

"The most likely payload is a radar satellite, intended for use by the Russian military, that shares a naming scheme and satellite bus with two 6U CubeSats, MKA-N 1 & 2, which were previously launched on a rideshare mission aboard a Soyuz 2.1a in July of 2017. These satellites were deployed in an orbit slightly different than planned and ultimately failed to establish communications with ground stations."

So a new rocket on its first space flight(others suborbital). Failed to deploy a satellite which also failed recently. Since the war started Russia's new Vostochny Cosmodrome has sat vacant. Built at a cost of $10 billion(still unfinished). The Angara-1 rocket/ payload was launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome.

Russia lost a UK contract to launch satellites worth $1 billion. Which Space-X picked up. It cancelled its RD-180 contracts and sales. With the exception of the space station has no customers or international flights left. There is always China.

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14 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Well Putin may be doing some crying. Russia launched a new spy satellite The Angara-1 rocket/ payload failed " But embarrassingly, the payload delivered into space is thought to have a significant issue and may even fall straight back down to Earth. Space journalist Anatoly Zak wrote on Twitter: “A classified payload, delivered into orbit in the first launch of the Angara-1 rocket last month, appears to be inactive and will fall back to Earth without manoeuvres.”

"The most likely payload is a radar satellite, intended for use by the Russian military, that shares a naming scheme and satellite bus with two 6U CubeSats, MKA-N 1 & 2, which were previously launched on a rideshare mission aboard a Soyuz 2.1a in July of 2017. These satellites were deployed in an orbit slightly different than planned and ultimately failed to establish communications with ground stations."

So a new rocket on its first space flight(others suborbital). Failed to deploy a satellite which also failed recently. Since the war started Russia's new Vostochny Cosmodrome has sat vacant. Built at a cost of $10 billion(still unfinished). The Angara-1 rocket/ payload was launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome.

Russia lost a UK contract to launch satellites worth $1 billion. Which Space-X picked up. It cancelled its RD-180 contracts and sales. With the exception of the space station has no customers or international flights left. There is always China.

This kind of stuff is why it's important to maintain our infrastructure. We won't advance as long as we have to spend all our time and money making major repairs, because we kicked the ball down the road too many times on minor ones.

Wendy P.

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2 hours ago, wmw999 said:

This kind of stuff is why it's important to maintain our infrastructure. We won't advance as long as we have to spend all our time and money making major repairs, because we kicked the ball down the road too many times on minor ones.

Wendy P.

Hi Wendy,

You have spent a substantial amount of time in Brazil.  Back in the 90's, I made 6 trips down there on business.

One thing that I noticed early on was what seemed like a total lack of maintenance of their infrastructure.  It is everywhere.

We cannot let something like that happen here.

Jerry Baumchen

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4 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Wendy,

You have spent a substantial amount of time in Brazil.  Back in the 90's, I made 6 trips down there on business.

One thing that I noticed early on was what seemed like a total lack of maintenance of their infrastructure.  It is everywhere.

We cannot let something like that happen here.

Jerry Baumchen

It's happened already.

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On 5/25/2022 at 10:22 AM, wmw999 said:

This kind of stuff is why it's important to maintain our infrastructure. We won't advance as long as we have to spend all our time and money making major repairs, because we kicked the ball down the road too many times on minor ones.

Wendy P.

Didn’t we just spend more than two trillion dollars on infrastructure?

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(edited)
33 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Didn’t we just spend more than two trillion dollars on infrastructure?

spacer.png

No the $2 trillion was what trump gave the wealthy in tax breaks. But he just announced that he wants to  harden US schools against gun violence. That should cost $2 trillion.

"This concept of hardening, the more it has been done, it's not shown the results," said Jagdish Khubchandani, a public health professor at New Mexico State University who studies school security practices and their effectiveness.

Khubchandani said the majority of public schools in the United States already implement the security measures most often promoted by public officials, including locked doors to the outside and in classrooms, active-shooter plans and security cameras.

After a review of 18 years of school security measures, Khubchandani and James Price from the University of Toledo did not find any evidence that such tactics or more armed teachers reduced gun violence in schools."

Perhaps $2 trillion will help? It will put the US above Mexico

Edited by Phil1111

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