You'll probably be fine

[Joellercoaster 6]

Is "you'll probably be fine" the most dangerous sentence in skydiving?

This is something that has been knocking around in my head for the last few years, listening to experienced skydivers (including myself) talking to newer jumpers (also including myself). It's a phrase that you (as a new jumper) will hear a few times in your career - usually from an up-jumper, almost never from an instructor, and you'll believe it.

The questions vary - is a Mr Bill an OK idea? Can I come on this 20-way? What about a GoPro? Can I have a go on my buddy's Crossfire? But the answer is very often the same:

"You'll probably be fine."

The thing is, it's true. You probably will be fine. It's a big sky, and risk is all relative - say your terrible idea increases the chance of a bad accident from almost zero to five per cent. 19 times out of 20 you'll get away with it, and you're probably not going to make 20 Mr Bills. Say the chance of jumping a camera before you'r really ready increases the chance of Bad Things by only two per cent? You get the idea. You'll probably be fine. But somebody won't.

The people saying it are not bad or even stupid - they remember getting away with mistakes and maybe being encouraged to take chances. They want you to have a good time, come on this jump with them that's maybe a little beyond you, because they're skydivers and are being inclusive.

The thing is that there are a lot of skydivers, and a lot of skydiving goes on that is not regulated or watched hawk-like by a S&TA or a CCI (which is good). Those skydivers need to make good decisions. The numbers always even out - skydivers do enough sketchy things that someone will always end up paying, and the price can be very steep.

The one young guy on the Katana 150 with a couple hundred jumps probably will be fine. But taken as a group, some of them are going to get broken, and it's because they were only "probably" going to be fine.

The thing is, that guy will now come on here when he's got 500 jumps and tell other people how the doubters didn't understand his skills, and that they'll probably be fine too.

(He doesn't understand his skills either yet - or more importantly, his luck - hopefully he'll figure that out later on and eventually turn into a good influence... it has happened, even on dropzone.com, but not often.)

Probably isn't good enough. Relying on luck is not good enough.

Be careful out there, and remember that the person giving you advice isn't the person taking the risk. It is, as they say, your ass, and not everyone is lucky all the time.

--
"I'll tell you how all skydivers are judged, . They are judged by the laws of physics." - kkeenan

"You jump out, pull the string and either live or die. What's there to be good at?

[Furiosa 0]

Good, thoughtful post!

[skydivecat 3]

I heard that a lot as a much lower number jumper, and still do from time to time.

I made the personal decision that when I ask an instructor/more experienced jumper a question and that this is the answer I get then my decision is a NO.

If that is the best they can come up with, no further explanation or response, then I need to reevaluate whatever it is I was considering, or I need to find a better source of information first.

[Andy9o8 0]

"Should I skydive?"
"You'll probably be fine."

[dthames 0]

Andy9o8

"Should I skydive?"
"You'll probably be fine."

I feel like that if I need to ask someone else, then I have not done my homework.

Instructor quote, “What's weird is that you're older than my dad!”

[raftman 12]

I always finish that line with.............as long as you don't do anything stupid!

[Rick 67]

I use that more as a tongue in cheek response when someone asks about doing some stupid shit

of course always followed by a serious response

You can't be drunk all day if you don't start early!

[DougH 270]

I don't tell that to people asking me questions about activities that are outside of what I consider to be a normal risk level, which I define as skill appropriate canopy size, and appropriate jump complexity.

I prefer to tell them "don't fuck up..." because that is when their choice is going to bite them in the ass.

I also like to say, while on the ground, "what ever happens I will be OK". This is a go to for new jumpers getting itchy on crappy gusty windy days.

"The restraining order says you're only allowed to touch me in freefall"
=P

[JWest 0]

Quote

The thing is, it's true. You probably will be fine. It's a big sky, and risk is all relative - say your terrible idea increases the chance of a bad accident from almost zero to five per cent. 19 times out of 20 you'll get away with it, and you're probably not going to make 20 Mr Bills. Say the chance of jumping a camera before you'r really ready increases the chance of Bad Things by only two per cent? You get the idea. You'll probably be fine. But somebody won't.

I just wanted to throw out a quick correction. I see this mistake a lot and try to help out when I can. If the risk is 5% than it is 5% every time, it does not compound. Just because there is a 5% chance that something will go wrong on a Mr. Bill does not mean that if you do 20, something will go wrong on 1 of them.

On to the topic. I say this pretty often, said it yesterday while whitewater rafting. I have thought about this before. I have the idea that we put the "probably" in there just so we aren't wrong when something does happen. In the Context of skydiving if an experienced jumper told a new jumper that they "would be fine" and something goes wrong chances are the new jumper will point and say " they said I would be fine!" When you add the probably it lets the new jumper know that there is some risk involved. So if something does go wrong there won't be finger pointing. Also as a scientifically trained person I try not to speak in absolutes.

[DSE 3]

In my list of dead and paralyzed friends, I can point to at least a dozen that died or were life-altered following "you'll probably be fine."

Your post is very thoughtful, and appreciated. It presents a perspective on the comment that I'd never really considered.

[FlyingRhenquest 1]

It's probably fine as long as what they're doing is safeish.

If they're borrowing your rig, you can ask them to please not get blood on it. Or if they have to, at least not too much blood. I haven't put a whole lot of thought into what constitutes too much blood, but if they could just get a little less than that much on there, that'd be awesome.

I'm trying to teach myself how to set things on fire with my mind. Hey... is it hot in here?

[aulanov 0]

JWest

I just wanted to throw out a quick correction. I see this mistake a lot and try to help out when I can. If the risk is 5% than it is 5% every time, it does not compound. Just because there is a 5% chance that something will go wrong on a Mr. Bill does not mean that if you do 20, something will go wrong on 1 of them.

Yes, you may indeed get away with it for 20 times in a row.
But if you do the math you'd find out that the probability of that is not in your faviour. It is just 36%. (i.e. there's 74% probability something will go wrong in at least one of the attempts).
(If you wonder how I came up with these numbers: https://goo.gl/5Ypq5b)

[skyjumpenfool 2]

Rick

I use that more as a tongue in cheek response

That was my thought... Maybe the OP's sarcasm radar is not functioning as well as it should? Especially around SkyGod types.

Quote

Birdshit & Fools Productions

"Son, only two things fall from the sky."

[JWest 0]

aulanov

***
I just wanted to throw out a quick correction. I see this mistake a lot and try to help out when I can. If the risk is 5% than it is 5% every time, it does not compound. Just because there is a 5% chance that something will go wrong on a Mr. Bill does not mean that if you do 20, something will go wrong on 1 of them.

Yes, you may indeed get away with it for 20 times in a row.
But if you do the math you'd find out that the probability of that is not in your faviour. It is just 36%. (i.e. there's 74% probability something will go wrong in at least one of the attempts).
(If you wonder how I came up with these numbers: https://goo.gl/5Ypq5b)

I was only pointing out that OP was compounding percentages in an incorrect way. You are correct that the odds would not be in your favor doing 20 in a row, mathematically of course.

[Joellercoaster 6]

JWest

I was only pointing out that OP was compounding percentages in an incorrect way.

Actually, I wasn't compounding percentages at all - I made no calculations (though I understand how you might misread what I said in that way if you really wanted to), and as a scientifically trained person I'm entirely aware of how probabilities work.

Once again, your ability to zero in on the trees allows you to conveniently miss the forest.

--
"I'll tell you how all skydivers are judged, . They are judged by the laws of physics." - kkeenan

"You jump out, pull the string and either live or die. What's there to be good at?

[Di0 1]

It's about the attitude, the attitude between the whole "you'll probably be fine" is very dangerous.
Although, let's be honest, it's skydiving and from time to time we all need to push ourselves and do something out of our comfort zone where we have to tell ourselves "well, I'll probably be fine".
There are ways, though, to manipulate what "probably" means in a certain context.

Recklessly ignoring what kind of complication or risk we are introducing by saying "you'll probably be fine", now that's stupid.

I usually ask tons of question when I want to try something new (tracking suit, wing suit, new canopy, winds, camera helmets, free flying), tons of question. For months LoL.

But then you need to reach a point when you say "ok, *fuck it*, let's give it a go. I'll probably be fine".

I'm standing on the edge
With a vision in my head
My body screams release me
My dreams they must be fed... You're in flight.

[catfishhunter 1]

The one that was told to me and I use often is "it isn't going to hurt me" I was told that when I asked a stupid question pretty sure it was Brian that said it to me but not 100% positive. Regardless my puzzled and dumbfounded look on my face made me stop and re-think what I was about to do. I get the same puzzled look and "what is that supposed to mean" response which I then offer my feelings on whatever stupid Idea is about to take place.

I believe most of us have thought and tried really dumb shit at some point or another and gallows humor more then "hey you shouldn't do that" gets us to stop and think before we act. Skydivers tend to be A type's and don't usually take well to being told what to do/don't do but if you can get them to stop and actually think, if they have any brains at all, the will realize the massive mistake they are about to make. For the ones that don't you just start a bounce bingo card...

MAKE EVERY DAY COUNT
Life is Short and we never know how long we are going to have. We must live life to the fullest EVERY DAY. Everything we do should have a greater purpose.

[gowlerk 1,902]

In my world

-"You'll probably be fine"
-"What could possibly go wrong?"
-"Hold my beer and watch this"

Are all euphemisms for - "This is a really stupid idea."

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[JWest 0]

I say this pretty often, said it yesterday while whitewater rafting. I have thought about this before. I have the idea that we put the "probably" in there just so we aren't wrong when something does happen. In the Context of skydiving if an experienced jumper told a new jumper that they "would be fine" and something goes wrong chances are the new jumper will point and say " they said I would be fine!" When you add the probably it lets the new jumper know that there is some risk involved. So if something does go wrong there won't be finger pointing. Also as a scientifically trained person I try not to speak in absolutes.

[JohnnyBoulder 1]

In the same realm ...

"The parachute wants to open."
"You are more likely to die driving to the dropzone."

[gowlerk 1,902]

Quote

"You are more likely to die driving to the dropzone."

That one drives me crazy.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[dthames 0]

Put another way......The probability is, you will be fine. (better than 50/50)

Instructor quote, “What's weird is that you're older than my dad!”

[raftman 12]

No matter what happens, I'll be fine.

[wmw999 2,116]

No matter what happens, eventually we'll all be dead

Wendy P.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[jimjumper 25]

"Usually! that doesn't cause a malfunction....":)