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SkyDekker

Ukraine

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7 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

... I see nothing gained by changing the games rules at this juncture. I concede I might be wrong but that's how I'd play it right now.

"President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that there was no threat to Russia if Sweden and Finland joined NATO but cautioned that Moscow would respond if the U.S.-led alliance bolstered military infrastructure in the new Nordic members."

The opposing player has submitted to the rule change already. Concede your victory, smile and retire to the bar where the victor's spoils await consumption.

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1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

The political leverage could be a simple as knowing that by treaty an attack on Finland would require a response from all of NATO.

Yes, that’s exactly the point. This is a good thing for all of NATO and a bad thing for any more of Putin’s expansionist ambitions.

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11 hours ago, jakee said:

Safeguards against one person doing something crazy with nukes. But we’re not talking about nukes, so how on earth do you think he’s addressed his concerns about every other piece of equipment?

Eh? We need to be worried about A10s because they could be used to start WW3 but we don’t need to worry about people who have A10s? Maybe explain that one.

Nukes would definitely set off WW3. 

A-10s (or any other serious attack) from Ukraine might set it off.

I'm not worried about anyone else attacking Russia with A-10s (or anything else) at the moment.

The original album question was about the aid being provided to Ukraine, and why there were certain 'big ticket ' things being left out. 

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1 hour ago, olofscience said:

NATO gains the entire Baltic sea, which is a big gain.

If Russia attacks a non-NATO Finland, the Russian army will be destroyed. That much is already clear from their performance against Ukraine.

Yes it might add a trigger point.

No it won't give Russia additional political leverage. Their complaint that NATO caused their invasion of Ukraine was like a rapist blaming their victim that they were "forced" to do it.

Hi Olof,

Re:  If Russia attacks a non-NATO Finland, the Russian army will be destroyed. That much is already clear from their performance against Ukraine.

I am still somewhat dumb-founded that the Russian military is so ineffective.

Jerry Baumchen

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2 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Olof,

Re:  If Russia attacks a non-NATO Finland, the Russian army will be destroyed. That much is already clear from their performance against Ukraine.

I am still somewhat dumb-founded that the Russian military is so ineffective.

Jerry Baumchen

Hi Jerry, 

It's a lot more obvious in hindsight. 

 

Afghanistan in the 80s & 90s showed a few weaknesses. 

When the Soviet Union collapsed, the corruption skyrocketed. It was always there, but capitalism sent it through the roof. 

So you get ancient rations, ancient tires, 'miracle tanks' that exist only on paper,  untrained thugs instead of actual trained soldiers. 

 

I won't pretend I could have predicted it, but I'm also not as surprised as I might have been. 

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11 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Hi Jerry, 

It's a lot more obvious in hindsight. 

 

Afghanistan in the 80s & 90s showed a few weaknesses. 

When the Soviet Union collapsed, the corruption skyrocketed. It was always there, but capitalism sent it through the roof. 

So you get ancient rations, ancient tires, 'miracle tanks' that exist only on paper,  untrained thugs instead of actual trained soldiers. 

 

I won't pretend I could have predicted it, but I'm also not as surprised as I might have been. 

Hi Joe,

And, a little update:  Ukraine says it's downed 200 aircraft, a mark of Russian failures in the sky : NPR

 instead of dominating the skies as expected, Russian pilots are so vulnerable they're reluctant to enter Ukraine's airspace.

Jerry Baumchen

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20 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

A-10s (or any other serious attack) from Ukraine might set it off.

I'm not worried about anyone else attacking Russia with A-10s (or anything else) at the moment.

So why did you bring it up?

21 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

The original album question was about the aid being provided to Ukraine, and why there were certain 'big ticket ' things being left out. 

Specifically, why A10s were left out. Not why nukes were left out, why A10s were left out which is your scenario that you chose to talk about. So if you’re not worried about anyone with access to A10s doing something stupid why are you worried about someone with access to A10s doing something stupid?

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25 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

So you get ancient rations, ancient tires, 'miracle tanks' that exist only on paper,  untrained thugs instead of actual trained soldiers. 

Many of them are not even "thugs."  Interviews with them reveal young untrained troops that were tricked into coming to Ukraine by calling it a training exercise - or sometimes by being told nothing at all.  There are stories of commanders hunkering down in well protected bunkers while ordering troops to patrol the area - not for Ukranain fighters, but for Russian troops trying to desert.  APC crews are drilling holes in their gas tanks so they can "run out of gas" and not have to go near the fighting.  One crew intentionally ran over their own commander, Yuri Medvedev.  One gun crew were shooting down both Ukranian and Russian aircraft.

The troops pretty clearly aren't well trained and don't want to be there, and are doing what they are ordered to do only with great reluctance.

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5 minutes ago, billvon said:

Many of them are not even "thugs."  Interviews with them reveal young untrained troops that were tricked into coming to Ukraine by calling it a training exercise - or sometimes by being told nothing at all.  There are stories of commanders hunkering down in well protected bunkers while ordering troops to patrol the area - not for Ukranain fighters, but for Russian troops trying to desert.  APC crews are drilling holes in their gas tanks so they can "run out of gas" and not have to go near the fighting.  One crew intentionally ran over their own commander, Yuri Medvedev.  One gun crew were shooting down both Ukranian and Russian aircraft.

The troops pretty clearly aren't well trained and don't want to be there, and are doing what they are ordered to do only with great reluctance.

Hi Bill,

Re:  APC crews are drilling holes in their gas tanks so they can "run out of gas" and not have to go near the fighting.  One crew intentionally ran over their own commander, Yuri Medvedev.  One gun crew were shooting down both Ukranian and Russian aircraft.

Every cloud has a silver lining.  You have to love it.

Jerry Baumchen

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2 hours ago, olofscience said:

NATO gains the entire Baltic sea, which is a big gain.

If Russia attacks a non-NATO Finland, the Russian army will be destroyed. That much is already clear from their performance against Ukraine.

Yes it might add a trigger point.

No it won't give Russia additional political leverage. Their complaint that NATO caused their invasion of Ukraine was like a rapist blaming their victim that they were "forced" to do it.

Finland bloodied the Russian bear's nose back in 1939 and they will bloody it again if Russia is foolish enough to invade again in the near future.

Also remember that Finland has a first class electronics industry and power tools industries.

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36 minutes ago, jakee said:

So why did you bring it up?

Specifically, why A10s were left out. Not why nukes were left out, why A10s were left out which is your scenario that you chose to talk about. So if you’re not worried about anyone with access to A10s doing something stupid why are you worried about someone with access to A10s doing something stupid?

Why are you guys wasting time babbling about an American ex-president and A-10s?

The USAF is the only air force to fly A-10s and they have repeatedly tried to retire them.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Air Force started this most recent war with about 60 Sukhoi 25 Grach (NATO reporting name Frogfoot) ground attack airplanes. SU-25 is a dedicated, armored, sub-sonic, ground attack airplane roughly comparable to A-10. Both the Russian and Ukrainian air forces have used thier SU-25s to bomb and rocket ground targets. Both suffered Su-25 losses over Ukraine. 

On 5/13/2022 at 7:37 AM, kallend said:

At the risk of triggering a Godwin, isn't all this rather reminiscent of a certain German dictator in the 1930s and 1940s?  

 

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I worry about combat exhaustion amongst Ukrainian soldiers fighting on the southern and Eastern fronts. Since the start of the war, they have been fighting roughly 82 days with little rest and few replacements. They are rapidly approaching the 90 day threshold for psychological casualties.

This 90 day threshold was noticed by Canadian Army operations Research scientists in the aftermath of the Second World War. They noticed that Canadian soldiers suffered dramatically more psychological casualties after 90 days in the front line. Since Canadian infantry regiments suffered much higher casualties than forecast, they were chronically short of replacements. For example the Black Watch Regiment of Canada suffered 350 percent casualties during less than a year of fighting in Northwestern Europe (France, Belgium, Netherlands and into Germany). Canadian infantry regiments re-rolled all their drivers, cooks, clerks, signallers, etc. as infantrymen, but still fell well short of replacement levels. Then the Canadian Army gutted non-infantry regiments to provide more infantry, but few of these replacements had the months of infantry training required to defeat battle-hardened Germans. So they just threw exhausted veterans back into the battle. At best, an infantry regiment might be told to hold their most recent conquest for a few days as the rest of the army continued the advance. But the Canadian Army was too short of manpower to give regiments significant rest periods away from the front line.  

If treated poorly, battle exhaustion can stagnate into Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, so it is important to promptly de-brief these men and integrate them back into civilian society as soon as possible after fighting ceases.

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1 hour ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Nukes would definitely set off WW3. 

A-10s (or any other serious attack) from Ukraine might set it off.

I'm not worried about anyone else attacking Russia with A-10s (or anything else) at the moment.

The original album question was about the aid being provided to Ukraine, and why there were certain 'big ticket ' things being left out. 

Ukraine already got a bunch more Mig 29s estimated at 20. They can carry 3000KG of bombs.

 

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46 minutes ago, riggerrob said:

Why are you guys wasting time babbling about an American ex-president and A-10s?

I have no idea why we’re talking about A10s starting WW3. You’ll need to ask the other guy.

47 minutes ago, riggerrob said:

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Air Force started this most recent war with about 60 Sukhoi 25 Grach (NATO reporting name Frogfoot) ground attack airplanes. SU-25 is a dedicated, armored, sub-sonic, ground attack airplane roughly comparable to A-10. 

You’ve ruined the surprise. I was planning to point out that Ukraine already has ground attack planes but has somehow avoided going mental and bombing Moscow so far. 

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21 minutes ago, jakee said:

I have no idea why we’re talking about A10s starting WW3. You’ll need to ask the other guy.

You’ve ruined the surprise. I was planning to point out that Ukraine already has ground attack planes but has somehow avoided going mental and bombing Moscow so far. 

One rumor has it that Ukrainians bombed a fuel depot just across the border inside Russia.

Another version of the same story blames the flames on an industrial accident.

It will take us YEARS to sort through all the MASKirovka.

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43 minutes ago, jakee said:

They absolutely did, and there is no problem with that.

"attacks, which Ukrainian leaders have neither confirmed nor denied but which one senior adviser winkingly described as “karma” on Wednesday, suggest that Kyiv is increasingly able to reach into Russian territory as the war continues. Empowered by NATO’s military aid, Ukrainian troops are hitting infrastructure, military targets and, Russian authorities say, at least some villages. Russian citizens are now waking to the same explosions that Ukrainians have faced for more than two months, making the conflict far more immediate and dangerous.

At least 11 hits appear to have occurred since the fighting began Feb. 24, most of them since late last week. Most seem to have involved shelling or triggered Russian antiaircraft weaponry. A handful were suspicious explosions at Russian military facilities near the border.

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13 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

I am still somewhat dumb-founded that the Russian military is so ineffective.

As an aviation fan I was always an admirer of Soviet and Russian aircraft - their looks. They kept focusing their performance on high-AOA tricks which was good for air shows, but I suspected that actual combat had moved away from dogfights given the US's focus on stealth, sensors, and avionics.

Same with logistics and communications - it's boring and uninteresting compared to shiny new weapons, but is the main deciding factor in a conflict.

 

I even know a lot of people who are like the Russian military - all talk and show, no substance. So I'm not that surprised they did so badly in Ukraine.

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4 hours ago, olofscience said:

As an aviation fan I was always an admirer of Soviet and Russian aircraft - their looks. They kept focusing their performance on high-AOA tricks which was good for air shows, ...

The movie Top Gun proved its value in combat!

 

4 hours ago, olofscience said:

... but I suspected that actual combat had moved away from dogfights given the US's focus on stealth, sensors, and avionics.

Same with logistics and communications - it's boring and uninteresting compared to shiny new weapons, but is the main deciding factor in a conflict.

I even know a lot of people who are like the US military Industrial complex(FIFY) - all talk and show, no substance. Anything to make a sale to the US taxpayer.(FIFY again)

Russia has more IR integration "Consider a QWIP technology “OLS-50M” installed in the PAK-FA.  Such a device could be design-optimised for simultaneous detection and tracking of aircraft exhausts, jet-plumes and missile flares to ranges of 70 nm and beyond – the limiting factors are the size of the optics, cooling system and detector area.  Russia has decades of experience in the integration of infrared sensors into its weapons systems, and QWIPs could well become the primary sensor and radar the secondary.  This means that the F-22A AN/ALR-94 will be denied signals to detect and track the PAK-FA.

"The ‘shooting match’ shifts from radar-centric to ‘infrared centric’.  The problem here is that the PAK-FA will have it, the F-22A does not, and the ability of the F-35 EOTS and DAS to make long range aircraft detections and guide weapons is at best ‘unproven’.  The F-35 systems have not been designed to be highly sensitive at the task of searching and tracking distant aircraft at those infrared colours where aircraft and their jet engines emit most of their infrared energy.  An understanding of the physics, or for the ever-hopeful, a simple Developmental Test and Evaluation exercise will demonstrate this.

With the Beyond-Visual-Range (BVR) radar detections being reduced to distances below 60 nautical miles and infrared sensor detection ranges growing beyond 50 nautical miles, a new generation of missiles will be required to dominate the battlespace."

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5 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

the PAK-FA

Which they can't even afford to produce. It's such a paper aircraft that India has backed out of acquiring those even before the Russian forces' pitiful performance in Ukraine.

And the IRST issue has been around for a while - your linked article is from 2009. With what fab capacity will Russia make those sensors? They only have 1 silicon fab - and those aren't any good at making IR sensors, since they top out at about 1100nm. They'll need InGaAs sensors there, and they've been importing those from France and Germany.

 

While the US MIC has its share of "all talk and no substance" people the problem is far worse in Russia.

Interestingly, the article you linked actually lobbies for more funding for the military by bigging up this "infrared gap" similar to how they hyped up the "bomber gap" in the 60s.

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1 minute ago, olofscience said:

Interestingly, the article you linked actually lobbies for more funding for the military by bigging up this "infrared gap" similar to how they hyped up the "bomber gap" in the 60s.

I was just going to say the same thing. Before even checking my strong assumption was that an article hyping up exceptional Russian capabilities in an expensive hi-tech field would conclude that the government should therefore give lots of funding to defence contractors to improve capabilities in that field. 
 

The bomber gap, the missile gap, the mineshaft gap, the helicopter gap and now the infrared gap. Amazing how many magical technologies the barely first world USSR and its successor have managed to ‘beat’ the US at before billions and billions of dollars were spent in response.

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(edited)
15 minutes ago, olofscience said:

Which they can't even afford to produce. ...

Interestingly, the article you linked actually lobbies for more funding for the military by bigging up this "infrared gap" similar to how they hyped up the "bomber gap" in the 60s.

That was more of a tongue and cheek answer. This war(sanctions) will finish off Russian aviation for a decade or two.. They will likely have to import technology from China in the future. Or at least as long as the remnants of Putin are around.

The future of combat aviation is morphing into secure data links for targeting. Using "Loyal Wingman" platforms, conventional drones and the sharing of targeting data between A/C. The F-35 and F-22 have this integrated into the targeting architecture of the avionics. The French are also working on it.

Israel is quite advanced in this area as well. It set aside the purchases of other A/C to buy more F-35s. Which they have used effectively in the face of S-400 systems in Syria. Using standoff glide bombs, drones and jamming. Together with F-35s they can attack weapons depos with impunity. The US and other NATO allies also have these capabilities.

This war has proven that even third rate counties can deal with Russia's current capacities.

Edited by Phil1111
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Dear olofscience,

While the Soviets/Russians were perfecting airplanes that could dog-fight at 6 to 9 Gs, the West was perfecting missiles that can turn at 30 Gs ... far more than a human can stay awake. Also consider that missiles can fly at 4 or 6 times the speed of sound ... velocities at which parts start melting off of conventional airplanes, so that modern missiles can easily triumph during tail-chases with manned airplanes that can barely exceed Mach 2.

Also, while guided missiles were crude, inaccurate and unreliable during the Vietnam War (19?? to 1974), the USA has been steadily improving their reliability and accuracy.

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