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SkyDekker

Ukraine

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On 4/17/2022 at 11:23 AM, JoeWeber said:

These are the Russian Deployments as of April 15.  It appears they're ready to attempt their pincer movement to trap the Ukrainians. Interestingly the Northern tank divisions are said to be equipped with T-80U Tanks (and variants). They are all, at best, 47 year old base designs excluding upgrades and, according to the internet, nothing special compared to older T-72's and newer T-90's. In the South I see only Motorized Rifle Regiments and Divisions, but who knows.

Let's hope the Ukrainians once again turn the tables and the rout goes the other way.

 

Source Data https://uawardata.com/

April 15 Russian Deployments.png

Northern Deployments: Donets region.png

Southern Deployments.png

The assault is now underway. They're feinting against the Ukrainian front and preparing to launch the encirclement. No way do I think the Ukrainians aren't prepared for this and no way do I think President Biden isn't committed to the failure of the Russian attack. The weeks ahead will be very interesting.

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17 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

The assault is now underway. They're feinting against the Ukrainian front and preparing to launch the encirclement. No way do I think the Ukrainians aren't prepared for this and no way do I think President Biden isn't committed to the failure of the Russian attack. The weeks ahead will be very interesting.

Canada has been supplying the Ukrainians with real time satellite radar and conventional satellite imagery.

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10 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

The assault is now underway. They're feinting against the Ukrainian front and preparing to launch the encirclement. No way do I think the Ukrainians aren't prepared for this and no way do I think President Biden isn't committed to the failure of the Russian attack. The weeks ahead will be very interesting.

Putin has given many Russians who reside in Crimea and the Donbas Russian citizenship. Russian passports and the benefits of Russian citizenship.

Should Ukraine clean out Russian troops from all of Ukrainian territory. Do you think Ukraine should offer those Russian citizens free bus service to the Russian border? Or let them walk?

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19 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Putin has given many Russians who reside in Crimea and the Donbas Russian citizenship. Russian passports and the benefits of Russian citizenship.

Should Ukraine clean out Russian troops from all of Ukrainian territory. Do you think Ukraine should offer those Russian citizens free bus service to the Russian border? Or let them walk?

Super good question. Off the cuff I'd say give them the chance to stay as residents with a pathway to Ukrainian Citizenship. For any who, post the date of the Crimean invasion, were granted Russian citizenship without process or the normal procedures one would suffer applying for Russian Citizenship they would need to renounce that citizenship to stay in Ukraine. The big issue would be appearances to the outside world and feeding the right wing media with ostensible evidence of nazism in Ukraine by doing anything that could be said to be a crackdown on innocent civilians. So, for that reason I'd say Kum Ba Yah, Brothers and Sisters and wait it out.

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7 minutes ago, ryoder said:

This is a great story; Millionaire had fled, and was watching his home via a webcam, when he saw it had been taken over by Russians.

Ukrainian millionaire supplies coordinates for his 'beautiful home' so Kyiv can destroy it after finding out it was being used as a base by looting Russian troops

It is a great story. But why is he in Poland when every male between 18 and 60 should be holding a Kalashnikov in Ukraine?

As an aside, he's Jewish, born in Russia, 39, "Andrey Stavnitser is a Ukrainian businessman, co-owner and CEO of TransInvestService. Andrey is also the co-owner of Neptune Grain Terminal, P&O Maritime Ukraine towage operator and Founding Partner of SD Capital Investment Company. Honorary Consul of the Republic of Austria in Odessa."

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2 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

It is a great story. But why is he in Poland when every male between 18 and 60 should be holding a Kalashnikov in Ukraine?

As an aside, he's Jewish, born in Russia, 39, "Andrey Stavnitser is a Ukrainian businessman, co-owner and CEO of TransInvestService. Andrey is also the co-owner of Neptune Grain Terminal, P&O Maritime Ukraine towage operator and Founding Partner of SD Capital Investment Company. Honorary Consul of the Republic of Austria in Odessa."

Phill, why does it seem we're always getting you back up to speed? The reason he's in Poland is because rich people don't take constant disappointment and the suffering of privations as well as other folks. It disrupts their delicate sensibilities and degrades their sense of wokeness. Have a heart, man, it's really just that simple. 

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14 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

My comment about Putin's 'claims' was about declaring victory on May 9. 

There are several reports out about plans for a victory parade to go along with "Victory" celebrations about the "Great Patriotic War" (WW2 for us proletarians)

I know that is what you are referring to. There is nothing authenticated that Putin has said this. Parades on May 9th in Russia are not uncommon.

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2 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Phill, why does it seem we're always getting you back up to speed? The reason he's in Poland is because rich people don't take constant disappointment and the suffering of privations as well as other folks. 

Well, to be fair to the guy, the Ukranian government might place more value on him working to keep food and equipment flowing into Ukraine than in him humping an AK-47.  I mean, Ernest O. Lawrence dodged the draft during World War II as well - but he probably did more good where he was.

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(edited)
15 minutes ago, billvon said:

Well, to be fair to the guy, the Ukranian government might place more value on him working to keep food and equipment flowing into Ukraine than in him humping an AK-47.  I mean, Ernest O. Lawrence dodged the draft during World War II as well - but he probably did more good where he was.

Sure, and according to the article, WHICH HAS NOT BEEN REFUTED, he's a personal friend of Zelensky. Figures. Tell you what, I'd like to see what's on his laptop. You know, the one he just tricked the Army into blowing up. Seems suspicious to me.

Edited by JoeWeber

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(edited)
45 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Sure, and according to the article, WHICH HAS NOT BEEN REFUTED, he's a personal friend of Zelensky. Figures. Tell you what, I'd like to see what's on his laptop. You know, the one he just tricked the Army into blowing up. Seems suspicious to me.

Proletariat, pleb, killjoy. Classic success suspicion syndrome.

As an aside. Russian oil exports have slowed by 800k barrels a day since sanctions came into effect.

Edited by Phil1111

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15 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

The assault is now underway. They're feinting against the Ukrainian front and preparing to launch the encirclement. No way do I think the Ukrainians aren't prepared for this and no way do I think President Biden isn't committed to the failure of the Russian attack. The weeks ahead will be very interesting.

From NYT "Over the past 24 hours Russia has added two additional battalion tactical groups into the Donbas region of Ukraine, a senior U.S. defense official said in a briefing to reporters, bringing the total number to 78. The official said that Russia still has about 75 percent of the soldiers and weapons from the pre-invasion force it assembled outside of Ukraine."

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4 hours ago, billvon said:

Well, to be fair to the guy, the Ukranian government might place more value on him working to keep food and equipment flowing into Ukraine than in him humping an AK-47.  I mean, Ernest O. Lawrence dodged the draft during World War II as well - but he probably did more good where he was.

Henry Moseley humped a rifle at Gallipoli in WW1, where he was killed at age 28.  Had he lived he was a shoe-in for a Nobel in physics (Moseley's Law, concept of atomic number) or chemistry (he fixed up the periodic table).

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5 minutes ago, kallend said:

Henry Moseley humped a rifle at Gallipoli in WW1, where he was killed at age 28.  Had he lived he was a shoe-in for a Nobel in physics (Moseley's Law, concept of atomic number) or chemistry (he fixed up the periodic table).

Yep.  Perhaps he would have been better utilized working on, say, explosives for that war.

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22 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Look, you went too far. Just acknowledge that and move on. You know with certainty that officials below the level of the Executive are empowered to bind our nation. If the President needed to agree to every deal in person we'd be fucked. Even in small corporations executives make binding decisions. You must know that.

What are you talking about?

A 'Defense Minister' (or Secretary of Defense) has no power over the national budget.
They can make 'binding agreements', but they can't commit a country to spend huge amounts of money.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=US

Germany has a GDP of about 4 trillion dollars. 1% of that is 38 BILLION

That's well beyond what a "Defense Minister" can spend without legislative approval.

With the very real threat from Russia, Germany has announced that it will greatly increase it's military spending. 
The announcement came from the Chancellor, and must be approved by parliament.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/22/1087859567/germany-military-buildup-russia-invasion-ukraine

9 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

I know that is what you are referring to. There is nothing authenticated that Putin has said this. Parades on May 9th in Russia are not uncommon.

Putin hasn't said anything formal about it. He hasn't said much since the war started.

thought I saw a couple stories that had 'sources' claiming he said that.

I don't see them now. They may have been pulled, I may have misunderstood them.

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41 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

What are you talking about?

A 'Defense Minister' (or Secretary of Defense) has no power over the national budget.
They can make 'binding agreements', but they can't commit a country to spend huge amounts of money.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=US

Germany has a GDP of about 4 trillion dollars. 1% of that is 38 BILLION

That's well beyond what a "Defense Minister" can spend without legislative approval.

With the very real threat from Russia, Germany has announced that it will greatly increase it's military spending. 
The announcement came from the Chancellor, and must be approved by parliament.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/22/1087859567/germany-military-buildup-russia-invasion-ukraine

Putin hasn't said anything formal about it. He hasn't said much since the war started.

thought I saw a couple stories that had 'sources' claiming he said that.

I don't see them now. They may have been pulled, I may have misunderstood them.

Joe, now don't go full Jakee on me, there are 113 points of agreement in the document. Are you proposing that all are ignorable after signing?

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_112964.htm 

Screen Shot 2022-04-19 at 3.08.06 PM.png

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"Full Jakee"?

Are you going to start the endless bickering like you did with Gowlerk?

Item 14 is the '2%' thing.

Right before it goes into detailed numbers, it has the qualifier:

"Taking current commitments into account, we are guided by the following considerations:"

While I'm not a lawyer, the 'legalese' in that statement, particularly the word 'guided' takes away any 'obligation'.

And I'm not certain that NATO membership includes ANY real 'obligations'. 
There are lots of words in the treaty, but most of it seems to be based on willingness to cooperate. 

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27 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

"Full Jakee"?

Are you going to start the endless bickering like you did with Gowlerk?

Item 14 is the '2%' thing.

Right before it goes into detailed numbers, it has the qualifier:
, truck and house.
"Taking current commitments into account, we are guided by the following considerations:"

While I'm not a lawyer, the 'legalese' in that statement, particularly the word 'guided' takes away any 'obligation'.

And I'm not certain that NATO membership includes ANY real 'obligations'. 
There are lots of words in the treaty, but most of it seems to be based on willingness to cooperate. 

"There are lots of words in the treaty, but most of it seems to be based on willingness to cooperate."

That is the essential element of every contract, including your car, truck, house and each and every credit card you use. It is also why you must sign a waiver at every new place you jump: because you can not be trusted on your word and neither can your family. To me it's just plain laughable that skydivers, posting online, feel just fine laughing off a written agreement.

 

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4 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Joe, now don't go full Jakee on me, there are 113 points of agreement in the document. Are you proposing that all are ignorable after signing?

What would be wrong with that?

Unfortunately for him, you’ve already gone full JoeWeber and are refusing to back down from the utter, utter shite that you’re spouting. NATO’s own website describes the 2% figure as a guideline. Your idea that it’s some kind of binding treaty is complete nonsense and you know it’s complete nonsense - not only that, it’s utterly irrelevant to anything that’s happening in Ukraine. So what on earth is your point?

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3 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

To me it's just plain laughable that skydivers, posting online, feel just fine laughing off a written agreement.


So why are you doing it? Joe has told you what the actual text that was signed to says and you’re ignoring it. Remind me to never sign a fucking waiver at your DZ, sounds like you’ll come after me next year and claim I agreed to give you a kidney.

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5 hours ago, jakee said:


So why are you doing it? Joe has told you what the actual text that was signed to says and you’re ignoring it. Remind me to never sign a fucking waiver at your DZ, sounds like you’ll come after me next year and claim I agreed to give you a kidney.

Easy Jakee...eaaaasy Jakee. Its obvious that Joe underestimates the sheer power of the US military. No I'm not talking about a dozen nuclear powered carrier battle groups. I mean the power of the lobbying of the US military industrial complex.

Its power to convince Americans that only massive military power of the best weapons will do. Speaking of which. I've got a bone to pick with Biden. He phoned the Canadian prime minister and persuaded him to donate artillery systems to Ukraine.

Up till now, in true liberal fashion. Canada has been the only G-7 country not to send heavy weapons. Canada only has 37 modern artillery weapons. So now the liberal government is in a serious quandary. How many to send? So he has postponed that decision. Instead of loading them on the three C-17s that Canada has. Canada will likely order a Royal Commission to study the matter for 3-5 years.

For the uninitiated " Royal commissions, once described by a member of Parliament as costly travelling minstrel shows, are a form of official inquiry into matters that could take years and cost tens of millions..."

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12 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

 

For the uninitiated " Royal commissions, once described by a member of Parliament as costly travelling minstrel shows, are a form of official inquiry into matters that could take years and cost tens of millions..."

Would a US analogy be the House Select Committee on Benghazi?

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